ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

  1. Wayne, would you be interested in taking a break from Bennelong and moving on to extolling the virtues of the leader of the free world, one Donald Trump?

  2. Trog Sorrenson @ #841 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 3:50 pm

    Sounds like a Coalition talking point. Technology-neutral is just Libspeak for “Give coal a subsidy”. Why not just say “An ETS”.

    Yes, I can see it would sound like that to someone who is only interested in backing a specific technology.

    A gas reservation policy.

    Only slows the shift to renewables. Probably should be done for economic reasons other than saving the planet.

    Yes, I can see this might sound reasonable to someone for whom reducing C02 levels is a “nice to have”, not a primary goal.

    Starting now.

    Yes. Only problem is that it is too little, too late. Better to greatly expand the RET.

    Yes, I can see that direct subsidies would appeal to someone whose favored technologies are still too expensive to survive without them. So let’s just continue to burn coal till the prices drop, shall we?

    You are so transparent I wonder how you can see yourself to shave!

  3. Catholic spokesperson Hart from Melbourne said that if a child “confessed” being abused by a priest he would tell the kid to step outside the confessional and say to the child “you’ve got to stop this …. it’ll do you no good in the end” (verbatim or almost verbatim).

    A senior religious leader, a mature “trustworthy” adult tells the kid that he, the kid has to take action to protect himself / herself.

    Just a bit earlier in the very long interview, Hart also said that in the same circumstances he would take the child outside the confessional and “get the parents or a teacher to report it”.

    All this after 5 years of nationwide public discussion along the lines of clerics who find out about their colleagues’ offending having the responsibility to report it and protect the kids.

    Hart has lost the plot.

    In the interview the media questioners could hardly be heard, but as far as I can ascertain no-one has questioned him further about the “you’ll have to …..” instructions he would give the kid outside the confessional. Nor have I heard anylater reference to it.

  4. A question for bludgers.

    How high do you prioritise Govt treatment of religious organisations when you next vote ?
    _____
    Rex

    There is an opportunity for a political party to create a stance on this and make a real point of difference. It’s certainly time to dismantle the inordinate amount of power organised religion has over political parties.


  5. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, December 15, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    A question for bludgers.

    How high do you prioritise Govt treatment of religious organisations when you next vote ?

    As neither party is advocating the removal of their tax free status; not very highly.

  6. “Wayne says:
    Friday, December 15, 2017 at 4:01 pm
    No thanks I’m here to help JA win Bennelong tomorrow”

    I probably shouldn’t pass on this secret, but the way to help JA win Bennelong is to be handing out “how to vote” flyers at polling places.

  7. [ The archbishop of Sydney says “I continue to pray for justice and healing of survivors.”
    What an great help THAT will be! ]

    Yes, BK, it’s cold bloody comfort.

    The Catholic Church (and other institutions, though it is fair to say they are shamefully over-represented) must have a good hard look at itself and stop and consider the unspeakable pain and suffering they have caused through both their direct and indirect criminal actions. It is difficult to imagine a modern institution in Australia that has inflicted as much pain and evil as this Church.

    They simply have created more victims and survivors than other criminal gangs in Australia, such as outlaw motor cycle gangs, ethnic organised crime gangs in Sydney or even terror groups in Australia.

    The volume and nature of their abuses is so beyond most folks’ comprehension that we struggle to engage with it and call it out for what it is. The largest organised crime gang in history – this institution is rotten to its core and seems unable and unwilling to address its evil.

  8. Wayne

    Good on you for sticking up for the government. I was going to vote for KK but having heard you put the other side of it so well, I’ll change my vote to JA.

  9. Fiona Patten (Reason party) has introduced a bill in VIC Parliament to remove the non-tax status of religious owned businesses (ie Sanitarium Foods)

  10. “Every minute that Wayne spends bludging here is a minute not spent campaigning in Bennelong”
    There must be a street corner in Bondi or Moss Vale where Wayne can hand out HTVCs for JA.

  11. BK says:
    Friday, December 15, 2017 at 4:07 pm
    A question for bludgers.

    How high do you prioritise Govt treatment of religious organisations when you next vote ?
    _____
    Rex

    There is an opportunity for a political party to create a stance on this and make a real point of difference. It’s certainly time to dismantle the inordinate amount of power organised religion has over political parties.

    Could be an opportunity for candidates to campaign for Senate seats on a Freedom From Religion platform.

  12. Child abuse is a crime. Any person covering up that abuse is abetting the criminals. There should be no exemptions allowed for the perpetrators to admit guilt and then hide behind a religion or religous organisation,and that includes the confessional.

    The abuse continued or was covered up because those organisations and leaders believed that their religion is above the law of the land and still do today.

  13. BK @ #859 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 4:07 pm

    A question for bludgers.

    How high do you prioritise Govt treatment of religious organisations when you next vote ?
    _____
    Rex

    There is an opportunity for a political party to create a stance on this and make a real point of difference. It’s certainly time to dismantle the inordinate amount of power organised religion has over political parties.

    http://www.reason.org.au/about_policy_principles

  14. Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA · 1h1 hour ago

    UPDATE: There’s enormous chatter flyin’ all over the beltway tonight about a big event tomorrow, but Tea Pain can’t lock it down 100% to precisely what it is. No predictions. No guarantees. But Tea’s never seen this amount of buzz before. Whatever it is, we’ll find out soon!

    ( *Beltway refers to Interstate 495, the Capital Beltway, a circumferential highway (beltway) that has encircled Washington, D.C )

  15. davrosz: Preference counts by the ECQ decisively torpedo the theory repeatedly advanced by the Australian — without any evidence — that One Nation’s decision to preference against sitting members in most seats cost the LNP the election. inside.org.au/queensland-a-fhttps://twitter.com/davrosz/status/941441401564229632

    Propaganda outlet USSR would be proud of.

  16. Those claiming adherence to no religion make up the largest single group in the electorate. I would think that good candidates promising to reflect secular/humanist values, and in particular to campaign for an end to tax and discrimination privileges for religious organs, would have a very chance of winning Senate seats.

  17. [Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA · 1h1 hour ago

    UPDATE: There’s enormous chatter flyin’ all over the beltway tonight about a big event tomorrow, but Tea Pain can’t lock it down 100% to precisely what it is. No predictions. No guarantees. But Tea’s never seen this amount of buzz before. Whatever it is, we’ll find out soon!]

    A US Supreme Court retirement?

  18. Democracy will the winner in Bennelong – Democracy and the Constitutional Convention of 1898. The loser will be Malcolm Turnbull, no matter what else happens.

  19. Darren Laver @ #864 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 4:09 pm

    [ The archbishop of Sydney says “I continue to pray for justice and healing of survivors.”
    What an great help THAT will be! ]

    Yes, BK, it’s cold bloody comfort.

    The Catholic Church (and other institutions, though it is fair to say they are shamefully over-represented) must have a good hard look at itself and stop and consider the unspeakable pain and suffering they have caused through both their direct and indirect criminal actions. It is difficult to imagine a modern institution in Australia that has inflicted as much pain and evil as this Church.

    They simply have created more victims and survivors than other criminal gangs in Australia, such as outlaw motor cycle gangs, ethnic organised crime gangs in Sydney or even terror groups in Australia.

    The volume and nature of their abuses is so beyond most folks’ comprehension that we struggle to engage with it and call it out for what it is. The largest organised crime gang in history – this institution is rotten to its core and seems unable and unwilling to address its evil.

    The cults anti-social behavior goes back thousands of years.

    The cult is an outdated political tool that’s been used to control and abuse.

  20. Bennelong will be one to watch tomorrow.

    Ultimately, Turnbull’s LNP majority has everything to lose and nothing to gain tomorrow. I can confirm that a Labor loss in Bennelong will not affect the ALP’s numbers in Canberra.

  21. To the extent that a religious (or any other non-corporatised) organisation operates as a business, then absolutely they should not have a tax-free status.

    To the extent that they operate as a non-profit organisation, they should be tax free. Unless you want to start taxing the local cricket club.

    And, to the extent that they break the law, they should be prosecuted.

  22. Darren Laver says: Friday, December 15, 2017 at 4:16 pm

    UPDATE: There’s enormous chatter flyin’ all over the beltway tonight about a big event tomorrow

    A US Supreme Court retirement?

    *******************************************************

    Maybe Donald has money on the winner of Bennelong ????

  23. Someone tell Wayne, most of us are watching the extent of swing against the Liberals tomorrow in Bennelong. It doesn’t matter who wins in the short term.
    What is important is whether or not this By Election points to the the result of the next federal election.
    We will know soon enough.

  24. Autocrat

    No tax exmpt status for churches that flout Australian law. It can be part of a suite of punishment for offical policy to break Australian law just like we do for anythign else.

    Abide by the law to have tax exempt status full stop.


  25. autocrat says:
    Friday, December 15, 2017 at 4:20 pm

    To the extent that they operate as a non-profit organisation, they should be tax free. Unless you want to start taxing the local cricket club.

    No profit; no tax; no matter who you are.

  26. victoria says: Friday, December 15, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Indictment of JKushner?

    ***********************************************

    That would be nice … I reckon Robert Mueller has those treacherous bastards cold – need their necks stretched or a seat on “Old Sparky”

    Mueller’s Trump-Russia Investigation Just Reached Jared Kushner’s Doorstep

    Special Counsel Mueller’s criminal probe into Russian election interference is investigating emails from the Trump campaign’s primary digital vendor, Cambridge Analytica, the firm that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner brought into the Trump campaign.

    http://verifiedpolitics.com/muellers-trump-russia-investigation-just-reached-jared-kushners-doorstep/

  27. guytaur

    According to the chatter on Twitter, it has something to do with a connection to Donnie. So I am thinking perhaps JKushner his son in law, or Donnie Jnr.

  28. [Darren

    I hear that Justice Ruth Bader Gimsberg has constantly delayed retirement due to Trump.]

    A few of the liberal Justices will be regretting not retiring during the Obama years (well, at least the first seven years of them!)

    But yes, the great RBG cannot serve forever, and she is now about 84 years old.

  29. If those unholy bishops and their followers would rather go to jail than break their secret seal and report confessed child abusers then that’s exactly what should happen, and the sooner the better, and all their goods and funds confiscated.

    I feel sorry for those who do good work under the umbrella of a ‘church’, like nuns I know living and working in the suburbs of Sydney, looking after victims of DV amongst other horrors, but I think it is rather more that they come from a Catholic background and tradition, and now work under the calling of Jesus, not Rome. Nuns came early to sticking it up Rome.

    Once more with feeling, the churches’ tax free status is unsustainable.

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