ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

  1. Wayne, what is thought by the people here will have nothing to do with the election tomorrow, apart from the stalwarts who have shown up, and will show up, tomorrow at the hustings to hand out HTV, as well as all the volunteer door knockers and such.

    They have made a difference. Whether it is enough to get KK over the line is something we will find out tomorrow evening, we hope.

  2. I’m in bennelong now handing out hov cards for JA and people I have spoken to say like there member and will be returning him to Canberra they don’t Like KK as they think she is so corrupt…….

  3. I wish these Liberal trolls would get their act together! One thinks KK should be the winner tomorrow and the other thinks John Alexander will win in a canter.

    Typical split personality Liberals.

  4. Australia ratifies torture prevention treaty, but must accept scrutiny of offshore facilities on Manus and Nauru

    When announcing its intention to ratify OPCAT in February the Australian Government made clear that it will not accept any obligations for transparency, oversight or monitoring to extend to its offshore facilities on Manus and Nauru, where 2000 refugees have been held for the last four and a half years.

    https://www.hrlc.org.au/news/2017/12/15/australia-ratifies-torture-prevention-treaty

  5. TOM IN OZ‏ @SirThomasWynne · Dec 13

    #auspol

    Andrew Robb who is one of 3 shareholders in
    Liberal Party company Parakeelia (money laundering for the Libs).

    We need a #FedICAC

  6. “So it’s pointing to a LNP win tomorrow”

    Oh, so close to a grammatically correct sentence, Wayne! You just dropped the punctuation at the end.

    Still, showing promise.

    Brought to you by your friendly local volunteer Bot Mistraining Service.

  7. So…someone has programmed the Wayne Kerr bot to believe it has a real existence in the physical world???? Thats mean…but typical Lib behavior i guess. 🙁

    I know!! Lets do #FREEWAYNEKERR !!!!!!

  8. A good point but Mr Blue and the missus were tough bastards when they were on the team.
    Although I had moved on when it happened their purging was delicious. I know he initially fell foul of the postal union and then fell out with Joe Tripodi over the earner he was expecting from taking over Fairfield Calabrian Club but I have never found out why Kathy O’Toole was liquidated

    BTW in answer to your question when we last spoke of things Jones/O’Toole the Fireman became a barrister in Darwin and is now the Member for Fong Lim

  9. JM
    It’s a pretty massive ask to expect someone to give up their job as a priest if they are unlucky enough to get in that situation. As you say it’s not binary as the priest could try hard to get the abuser to fess up, talk to others etc to try and make sure it got out but that might not work. They could even send an anonymous letter to the police which would allow them to keep their job and most of their conscience clean. It’s not easy unless the Church changes its rules.

  10. You don’t say. Jeff Collins finally got a gig – even if it is a 4000 person electorate.

    Otoole fell foul of the late Steve Hutchins who ordered the liquidation.

  11. Well there was an ornament to the Labor Party.
    I congratulated Jeff although I hadn’t spoken to him for 20 years – he was pretty chuffed

  12. Typical derogatory and degrading comment from the Liberal troll:

    let’s stick it up KK

    Charming.

    Though it is an indication of the sort of supporter the Liberals are drawing to their side.

  13. @qzervaas
    ·
    8h
    To give you an idea of the stupidity that is the Australian NBN, Internode are now advertising the fact that their 100 Mbps plan can only deliver 50 Mbps.

    Fraud is Fraud, a $60B fraud.

  14. Diogenes @ #1069 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 7:14 pm

    JM
    It’s a pretty massive ask to expect someone to give up their job as a priest if they are unlucky enough to get in that situation. As you say it’s not binary as the priest could try hard to get the abuser to fess up, talk to others etc to try and make sure it got out but that might not work. They could even send an anonymous letter to the police which would allow them to keep their job and most of their conscience clean. It’s not easy unless the Church changes its rules.

    It’s very easy. Take away their tax free status if they don’t obey Australian law.

    We’d see the church/cult change its rules in a hurry.

  15. Edwina and Wayne: See you after the election to read your explanation why ReachTEL got it soooo wrong… You will be here providing an explanation, will you?…. Or perhaps not?…. 🙂

  16. Keep it up guys as i am here till JA is called the winner of bennelong and you can’t stop me saying what I think of KK and her corrupt boss

  17. So calling somebody corrupt dozens of times a day when there is no evidence they are is the new norm on PB?
    There are lots of insults I could direct at various people I don’t like but I draw the line at allegations of illegal behaviour.
    Maybe I could start saying what I suspect about people in public life but have no evidence of.

  18. ALPO
    I will be here to brag about JA win in bennlong and to make sure all five labor MPS go to the high court and follow by election in which they will lose to LNP

  19. @wayne

    LNP took money from big corporations while at the same time were tax avoidence, and at the same time Turnbull is investing overseas in low tax havens like Cayman Islands.

    So the economy is not being boosted by the government coffers, so our debt is higher than it should be.

    And LNP ignored calls for RC into banks and the Church.

  20. It’s very easy. Take away their tax free status if they don’t obey Australian law.

    There was a fantastic opinion article in the Guardian the other day that made the case very well in favour of not extending further freedoms to churches. In short: they already abuse the freedoms they have so why give them more?

  21. Mandate that EVERYONE is required to report child abuse when you are aware/suspect it.

    Regardless of who you are or how you came to that knowledge.

    Same penalties to apply to those not doing so, regardless of who you are.

  22. Coorey –

    there is a growing recognition that Dastyari’s resignation has changed the ground rules for everybody, Liberals included.

    The next time somebody exercises a gross error in judgment, they will have to quit the Parliament, not just the frontbench or whatever other extra job they may hold.

    …Remember Stuart Robert?

    The one everyone is talking about is Queensland Liberal MP Stuart Robert.

    In 2014, when he was a minister, he went to China with friend and Liberal party donor Paul Marks. Despite it being a private trip, Robert used his ministerial status to add weight at a ceremony at which Marks’ company Nimrod Resources inked a deal with Chinese state-controlled corporation China Minmetals.

    Robert was sacked for misusing his position as a minister to help a donor mate cut a deal with the Chinese.

    Under the new ground rules, he would be under pressure to leave Parliament. He may find in the new year that Labor starts making the argument that he do so.

    “It’s a choice we have got to make. I don’t like the choice but we have got a stand-out example in Stuart Robert,” said a senior member of Labor.

    “His circumstances are very similar to Sam Dastyari’s but the moment he resigned from his additional office [his ministry], we dropped it.

    “Now, it’s completely open for us to revisit Stuart Robert and Sussan Ley.”

    Ley was dumped as health minister in January for using government trips to buy an investment property. She remains on the backbench.

    Dastyari’s friends dispute suggestions his case was different because the allegations concerning him were those of treason.

    “Ridiculous,” said one.

    “It’s evidence of the extent to which Turnbull is now scrambling. Convention means nothing any more.

    “Why then, is Huang still in Australia on a visa. The fact he is still in Australia on a visa says it all.”

    http://www.afr.com/news/sam-dastyaris-exit-changes-the-rules-in-canberra-20171214-h04unw

  23. @Wayne

    Keep it up guys as i am here till JA is called the winner of bennelong and you can’t stop me saying what I think of KK and her corrupt boss

    I take it you have checked this assertion with the moderator of the site?

  24. Josh Taylor
    Josh Taylor
    @joshgnosis
    ·
    5h
    Fresh from being on the wrong side of history on marriage equality, the Catholic Church in Australia will be on the wrong side of history on the royal commission.

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