Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong

Labor records an unexpectedly strong showing in a Newspoll from Bennelong, and maintains a big national lead from Essential – although the latter also records a lift in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.

YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50

The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,497 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong”

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  1. C@t

    one of the best lines I have read was from a Hollywood actress who had not had “work” but who described another as having a “forehead like a flat screen TV.”

    Sums up Abbott tonight.

  2. Confessions, yes Turnbull did say something to that effect, he was of course hedging his bets and trying not to say anything actually. However that is reasonable interpretation.

    I put it in the same category as his coal power stations comments.

  6. Why The Guardian is a wank:

    Is it redundant to note that a film about artificial life should itself be artificial? Do we need to be reminded that the world on screen is fake? Those rainswept urban canyons were concocted by technicians and beautifully framed by the cinematographer Roger Deakins. So Villeneuve’s movie is a simulacrum, an artificial landscape staffed with paid performers, just like every other fiction film ever made. That’s the deal, it’s what cinema does. But it’s so layered and textured that it infects us, transports us. And somewhere along the way we become like K and Joi, immersed in their drama, “more human than human”. This is surely the key test of every great movie. Audaciously, Blade Runner 2049 suggests it may be the key test of life. If we believe in the illusion, it means that, for us, it is real.

  11. There are many well documented and researched patient safety issues with medical records, hand written or electronic and their veracity.

    The content is only as good as the entry maker, and is very, very, very, rarely validated or corrected.

  12. P1:

    Clearly the leadership of the Liberal party was the offering.

    Guytaur:

    Alabama is a major setback for Trump, however he and his minions choose to sell/spin it.

  13. Barney, re Thai… From my neck of the woods, boys say kup (krupp), girls say ka… gender of the person being spoken to has no bearing. Ladyboys (same as the fairer sex) say ka. Either are used as a polite ending to a sentence or as a brief acknowledgement/understanding of what’s being said.

  14. Aqualung Can you pls watch that mouth of yours or I will see you in court you don’t like it as I am telling you about the Bennelong by election

  17. How freakin’ delusional do you have to be to think that, even after being given one go at being Prime Minister, and failing sooo badly that your own party turfed you, even after the Labor Party had just been booted out of office for doing the same thing, that you can put yourself up to do it again!?!

    Tony Abbott is nuckin’ futs! if he thinks that people have forgotten what a capital ‘L’ Loser in a Liberal Blue tie he was!

    He doesn’t appear to have osmosed that home truth either! It just seems to me like it seems to him that just putting himself out there, like a man suffering with political Tourettes, always being there with his opinions about anything and everything, and not taking a backward step after political defeat after political defeat, and not going away, is enough of a recommendation for the nation, and his party, to entrust him with the keys to the Lodge toilet again!

    *shakes head*

  18. Aqualung JA will win the bennelong by election with a big swing to him and KK will get to the gutter just like you will be and u support corruption

  19. Hey Wayne have you ever heard of punctuation or is that fake news like most of the other stuff you have been spouting tonight you know what I mean don’t you

  22. Jacinda Ardern is the first Labour PM of NZ to have only known MMP and it shows. Electoral systems matter.

    One day ALP and Greens in Aus will be able to contest elections without acting like it’s about taking all of the lollies, but it might take a change of electoral system and then a decade to get there.

  25. Roger bottomley please shut that dirty mouth of yours or I will be taking you to court and JA will win bennelong by election with a 10% swing to him and He will Kick KK to the gutter where she belongs and u too

  26. Martin B,
    And how long has it taken you to reach this conclusion?

    I’ve known for a while. Tony Abbott just swings by my consciousness every now and again to reinforce my conclusion. 🙂

  29. Sorry Wayne I don’t understand the reference to u too do you mean I will have a swing of 10% also or that JA will kick me to the gutter or that’s where I belong as well could you please clarify as I find your drivel hard to understand

  31. So tonight we have a new bot anonymously threatening legal action, speculation on Tony Abbott’s beautifying regime, and P1 flirting with GG.

    This is a weird place at times 🙂

  36. imacca@10:39pm

    Hmmmm….i think Wayne Kerr here may be an actual genuine bot??

    Even truthie was more articulate in his own sad way.

    I have also come to the conclusion that Wayne is a bot being trained or tested. Why you would use a relatively obscure psephologist’s blog to do this is hard to fathom, when your target is the numptys on Facebook.

    Then again, Poll Bludger is actually immensely popular as a political blog, and there are a good variety of progressive / left-of-cente/ Labor opinions here, so maybe the Wayne-Bot is being trained up to get our responses to his “exterminate” “exterminate” phrases, to be then unleashed on Facebook with good counter arguments to any view posed that is not of the extreme right.

  39. BB: “Why The Guardian is a wank”
    While the Guardian has one or two good writers/cartoonists, it is a pretty superficial product. Not much different to the the SMH or the Age, in fact. Outwardly it displays concern for the environment and refugees, for example, but under the surface its real purpose is the prop up the big end of town. Its undermining of Corbyn in the UK and uncritical support for Turnbull here underlines this. A disingenuous little rag.

  41. Wayne@11.20pm

    imacca I think it’s time to shut that mouth of yours and quit while your ahead as I can take you part and it will not be nice

    You have failed the Turing test: we can tell you are a bot.

    Do you have sophisticated enough programming to incorporate this knowledge and then and make your responses sound more like they come from a Human? Or any other intelligent lifeform, really.

    So, will PollBludger become the first place on Earth where the Turing is conducted, failed, and then passed by a “learning” bot?

  45. Wayne

    How come you can’t write in English? Have you suffered some cerebral accident in the past? It must have been severe because it has left you incoherent, and also bereft of punctuation skills.

    It is a pity that it is so hard to understand what you are trying to say, and it must be so frustrating to you.

    Please publish your email here and I will send you the names of some excellent speech pathologists who have taught people who have suffered very severe strokes how to speak and write and talk again in English.

    Cheers mate.

  46. Ahhhh D&M…….
    Interesting this bot.
    I reckon though that every now and then William throws in something weirdo like this for research purposes. Fun 🙂

  49. imacca@11:34pm

    Ahhhh D&M…….
    Interesting this bot.
    I reckon though that every now and then William throws in something weirdo like this for research purposes. Fun

    Interesting hypothesis – make more sense than anything else I can think of 🙂

    I suspect the Wayne-bot will not reply to my post, suggesting he has a “handler”. A pity, some real examples of the Turing test in action would be gold.

  50. Many years ago, as I recall, a young kitchen hand called Robert Candaloro took umbrage at some assertion made by Frank Calabrese, and threatened to sue Frank.

    William took greater umbrage at Robert’s threat to sue than he did to Frank’s comment, and banned young Robert.

    Or so the story goes, according to my no doubt febrile recollection …

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