Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong

Labor records an unexpectedly strong showing in a Newspoll from Bennelong, and maintains a big national lead from Essential – although the latter also records a lift in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.

YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50

The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,497 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong”

  1. Are the MonkeyPod cranking up the ‘bone Malcolm’ campaign?

    Let’s see if paid up ‘Podsters Dutton and Christensen have any jibes over the next few weeks.

  2. FWIW this earlier from Sam Maiden:

    Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    1h1 hour ago
    Analysis is Guardian that “aggressive campaign” shows Libs are worried in Bennelong horseshit in my view. Confident.

    Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    1h1 hour ago
    Labor thinks @KKeneally will come close but not close enough but are running China phobia hard in hope turn NESB voters

    Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    1h1 hour ago
    Both sides of politics I’ve spoken to think 50:50 published polling undercooks Lib vote. But swing will be big.

  3. Hmm, if a 7% swing from Bennelong polling translate into a 35 seats loss for the coalition, that brings them down to 41 (from 76). If a straight transfer to Labor, that brings them to 104. Thats only 1 seat less than Grimmace’s predicted 105.

  4. sprocket:

    Peter Brent‏Verified account @mumbletwits
    2h2 hours ago
    Sensing that Credlin, Murray, Hanson, Ashby, Bernadi, Hanson, Roberts, Grech and—certainly not least—@chriskkenny, have finally withdrawn support for Turnbull. Mark this day in yr calendar.

  5. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 9:27 pm

    if ‘dinky-di Australian’ John Alexander

    A dog whistle about KK being a foreigner.

    What is the demographic makeup of Bennelong again?

    Tony appears to have forgotten WHY this by-election is happening.

  6. Tony says:
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 9:38 pm
    Who do you think will win the bennelong by election on Saturday

    Democracy will be the winner.

    The real question is who will lose the most – Turnbull or Abbott?

  7. He’s baaaaaaaack!

    Wrinkle free, buffed, as much Murdoch airwaves and column inches he wants, and an agenda. To start, with religious and conscientious freedoms need to be addressed by ‘the government’.

  8. How many ‘Dinky-di Australians’ are there in Bennelong anyway!?! How many are left in Australia, for that matter!?!

    Jeez, where’s dtt when you want to have a ‘Dinky-di’ face-off at 10 paces!?! 😀

  9. There is going to be a 10% swing to the LNP in bennelong according to Paul Murray And the LNP will retain the seat on Saturday and Turnbull job will be safe till 2022 and bill shorten will resign next year and Albo will be the new leader……

  10. C@tmomma

    I have long noticed how a number of Tory wallies roll out on high rotation ye olde cliche phrases like “fair dinkum” etc. Not to mention chucking on the moleskins,akubras, blue Country Road shirts and RM’s (all fresh from the wrapping) whenever they visit somewhere further than 100 km from the CBD. They do “bushie twee” so laughably well.

  11. Toned Abs:

    * Dyed hair: tick!
    * Microdermabrasion or Glycolic Acid skin peel to get rid of the age spots: tick!
    * Proto Adolfian hair do, for just the right amount of threat and menace and appeal to the Alt Right: tick!
    * Botox: tick!

    Set to go for a delusional tilt at the Liberal Party leadership. 🙂

  12. MarkDiStef: According to a source, Sky chief Jeremy Darroch gathered Sky News staff at midday yesterday, and said it’s an “awkward” time with the Disney takeover and CMA inquiry in the background buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/…

  13. So Tone is going Tom keep us in suspense, well I suppose it is only 12 days to Christmas.

    Why don’t our various poster write that the next Newspoll will be 53-47 to the LNP? Or is that too far fetched ?

  14. C@tmomma

    “Fair dinkum” was on Tones’ high rotation list and he donned all the “fresh from from the packet” bushie twee accoutrements. In between times it was BA Santamaria flashbacks and assorted lunacy 🙂

  15. Sky News Australia‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    33m33 minutes ago
    .@TonyAbbottMHR: I will respond to @TurnbullMalcolm’s Newspoll comments, but not before Saturday’s Bennelong by-election. #PMLive

    On the 30 Newspoll benchmark for knifing.

  16. Sky News Australia‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    40m40 minutes ago
    .@TonyAbbottMHR: I think a lot of people did take the prime minister seriously when he said religious freedom is more important than same sex marriage. #PMLive

    Did Turnbull actually say that?

  17. realDonaldTrump: The reason I originally endorsed Luther Strange (and his numbers went up mightily), is that I said Roy Moore will not be able to win the General Election. I was right! Roy worked hard but the deck was stacked against him!

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