Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong

Labor records an unexpectedly strong showing in a Newspoll from Bennelong, and maintains a big national lead from Essential – although the latter also records a lift in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.

YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50

The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,497 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong”

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  2. And the Republican majority in the Senate is now a mere 1 vote.

    They will want to keep sweet with Jeff Flake, Bob Corker and John McCain. Things could get very interesting next year. 🙂

  4. ‘fess,
    Amazingly women voted for Moore! Are they crazy after what he was accused of?

    As an expert from Wollongong Uni, who used to work for Jimmy Carter, explained it, women there care more about unborn babies than they do teenage girls. So they voted for Moore.

  5. Who agrees with me that JA will be returned as the member of Bennelong and Kick dirty Corrupt KK to the Gutter where she belongs and Malcom will be our PM in years

  6. And this is a great sign for Democrats next year.

    Voters in Alabama’s cities and most affluent suburbs overwhelmingly rejected Mr. Moore’s candidacy, an ominous sign for Republicans on the ballot next year in upscale districts. In Jefferson County, which includes Birmingham and some of the state’s wealthiest enclaves, Mr. Jones, the Democratic candidate, captured more than 68 percent of the vote. And in Madison County, home to Huntsville and a large NASA facility, Mr. Jones won 57 percent of the vote.

    While these Alabamians, many of them women, may have been appalled by the claims of sexual misconduct against Mr. Moore, results like these were not isolated to this race. They mirrored returns in last month’s statewide and legislative races in Virginia, a state filled with well-heeled suburbanites.

    These highly educated and high-income voters, while often open to supporting Republicans, are uneasy with the hard-edged politics of President Trump and part of the reason his approval ratings are so dismal. If Republican candidates facing well-off voters next year do not find a way to separate themselves from the president, they will face a punishing midterm election next year.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/politics/doug-jones-democrats-alabama.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

  7. Modern preps are much better tolerated. I remember prescribing 4L of Golytely as a standard prep, drunk over 8 hours. That’s an awful lot of fluid to have to drink.

  9. Who agrees with me that JA will be returned as the member of Bennelong and Kick dirty Corrupt KK to the Gutter where she belongs and Malcom will be our PM in years
    ______
    Who agrees with me that Wayne is a waste of space and scroll wheel wear?
    (I rarely post comments like this)

  13. Ides of March says:
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 7:57 pm
    If people are going to troll, can they at least be witty and humorous about it?

    I think Wayne is part of the Kerr family. Noted dipsos and humourists.

  21. “Wayne says:
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 8:43 pm
    Who agrees with me that JA will be returned as the member of Bennelong and Kick dirty Corrupt KK to the Gutter where she belongs and Malcom will be our PM in years”

    Judging by the atrocious grammar, the Liberal Party has extremely low standards for admission to membership. Simon Birmingham would not be pleased.

  23. I’m betting KK might give JA a seeing to on the court. Just saying as the media keep making a big deal about his athletic hero status.

  26. BevanShields: Tony Abbott says @KKeneally is a ‘dynamic individual’ but it would be a tragedy if ‘dinky-di Australian’ John Alexander lost Bennelong on Saturday #auspol @pmonair

  31. News flash another poll out tonight that say LNP will win the seat of bennelong with a big swing to JA and KK will not win on Saturday what do you think of that guys

  39. guytaur says:

    BevanShields: Tony Abbott says @KKeneally is a ‘dynamic individual’ but it would be a tragedy if ‘dinky-di Australian’ John Alexander lost Bennelong on Saturday #auspol @pmonair

    Tones will be truly conflicted. What with KK’s ‘Cat lick’ cred and all 🙂

  44. if ‘dinky-di Australian’ John Alexander

    A dog whistle about KK being a foreigner.

    What is the demographic makeup of Bennelong again?

  49. Player One @ #1341 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 9:25 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1336 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 9:24 pm

    Player One @ #1328 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 9:20 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1324 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 9:14 pm

    The Bennelong election is a choice between a bland tradionalist and some one that night take you somewhere.

    She could take me somewhere any night!

    I’m sure the meeting would involve energy!

    Only the renewable kind!

    Tell me less!

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