Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

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  1. ItzaDream

    Thanks for confirming my thought. I only have a vague notion of Catholic beliefs but thought that Keating placed too much virtue in suffering.

  2. Guytaur, love you like a brother, but sometimes it’s ok to let things go.

    Someone saying “enough” doesn’t necessarily mean the disagree with you, or that your arguments are wrong.

  3. ……………..”@guytaur says: Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 2:04 pm
    BW
    What is the point of your intervention?”……………………..

    I would of thought that ANY posts on a public forum are open to ALL participants to comment on, no matter what the discussion is, or whether they agree with you or not. I thought that was the main idea behind having a free and open forum. Everyone can join in.

  4. ItzaDream @ #388 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 1:28 pm

    The ethics of the relief of suffering vs the ethics of preservation of life, regardless, is far from clear, to me.

    It’s clear enough to me. There’s zero ethical value in preserving a life against the express wishes of the person who actually holds it. Or perhaps even negative ethical value, because by “preserving” their life against their wishes, you’re actually stripping them of their agency and free will.

    The ethical course is to factually inform a person of their options, allow them to choose their preferred one, and then respect, honor, and enable their choice.

    We’re all gonna die. It’s hardly ethical for the people who don’t want a slow/lingering/painful death to be forced to experience one anyways. We don’t subject our pets, or even our food animals, to such treatment.

  5. Rudd’s right, of course.

    “The Liberal Party has seen fit to call a series of opportunistic royal commissions into the Labor Party over many decades now,” Rudd tells Karen Middleton. “If ever there was a case for a royal commission in Australia on the waste of public funds and the unseemly relationship between the Liberal Party on the one hand and the Murdoch party on the other in the destruction of the NBN model for Australia, this is it.”

  6. FS

    When it comes to equality and someone is arguing for a homophobic position in legislation its never enough to correct them. Liberty is an eternal fight.

    You want me to shut up about BB. Ask him to stop blaming me for his mistake that I am pointing out as he continues to attack me.

    As I pointed out. I am only responding because BB keeps bringing the point up to try and discredit me because I pointed out a homophobic argument.

    You want the repetition to stop. Have a go at BB at least as much as you are having a go at me.

  7. Cut out the crap fellers. I have a serious, and I mean serious situation at hand.

    Just moments ago an email arrived asking as follows.

    How many stars would you give “Warrior King” ❓ This from Amazon Review (whatever that is).

    Well, I ask you, what if somebody outs my secret identity and that I only gave five stars.

    Help what should I do ❓

  8. I once thought like PJK. Then I watched my wife shrivel up and die. She looked like an 80yo woman not a 40yo.
    It took a little time after her death but one night I woke up suddenly from sleep. There is no god and years and revelations from the CARC have only confirmed it.
    I’m all for assisted dying with appropriate safeguards.
    I don’t know for sure but I think the hospital may have sped up her final time. I was devastated at losing her but even now I know that the suffering of more than one person was eased that night.
    I’m off for a bit.

  9. g

    I am not sure how many times I have to keep repeating that you are right. This is my last post on the topic of your being right. You are right. You are right. You are right. You are always right.

    It might have escaped you but my original post mentioned absolutely nothing of substance. In fact, I deliberately avoided mentioning any issues of substance.

    Naturally, you have to be right about something, so you introduced some extraneous substantive stuff about which, of course, you were right. Right?

    I will now allow you to have the last post on the topic of your being right all the time, in which you will once again be right. We are in furious agreement. You are always right. And I agree that you are always right.

    Right, over to you for your last, inevitably right word on the topic of your always being right.

    Over and out.

  10. Aqualung @ #416 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 2:51 pm

    I once thought like PJK. Then I watched my wife shrivel up and die. She looked like an 80yo woman not a 40yo.
    It took a little time after her death but one night I woke up suddenly from sleep. There is no god and years and revelations from the CARC have only confirmed it.
    I’m all for assisted dying with appropriate safeguards.
    I don’t know for sure but I think the hospital may have sped up her final time. I was devastated at losing her but even now I know that the suffering of more than one person was eased that night.
    I’m off for a bit.

    Thank you for your post. Very good indeed. ☮

  11. A
    The guess varies but it is between 10% and 30% of hospital deaths de facto involve assisted dying. In most of the cases I know of the family were involved and in one case the person who was dying was involved in the discussions with doctors.
    So, it happens often.
    I am with you 100% on it being an option and a properly managed option.

  12. steve davis @ #354 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 2:46 pm

    How bad does a government get and yet people still support this rabble religiously?

    A woman Republican Governor in Alabama is still supporting a Child Abusing Republican candidate for the Senate. You have to ask yourself, why does blind faith allegiance Trump(sic) decency in America these days?

    You can say it’s almost as bad, but not quite, over here.

    Tribalism, pure and simple.

  13. People like Shelton & co are continually claiming they are a ‘persecuted minority’ but it doesn’t seem to prevent them receiving millions in funding and gaining political support from the likes of Canavan, Abetz, Abbott, Bernardi and Murdoch.

  14. lizzie @ #411 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 2:48 pm

    Rudd’s right, of course.

    “The Liberal Party has seen fit to call a series of opportunistic royal commissions into the Labor Party over many decades now,” Rudd tells Karen Middleton. “If ever there was a case for a royal commission in Australia on the waste of public funds and the unseemly relationship between the Liberal Party on the one hand and the Murdoch party on the other in the destruction of the NBN model for Australia, this is it.”

    Rudd is the last person who should be handing out lectures re the rights and wrongs of political behaviour.

  15. citizen @ #369 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 2:57 pm

    People like Shelton & co are continually claiming they are a ‘persecuted minority’ but it doesn’t seem to prevent them receiving millions in funding and gaining political support from the likes of Canavan, Abetz, Abbott, Bernardi and Murdoch.

    They should just be honest and say they want to persecute minorities.

  16. Lizzie

    Nope. Fulvio is asking me to let attacks go unanswered.

    He is saying take the higher ground.

    However in this case I cannot. Why not? Because I am getting unequal treatment. Instead of asking me to stop ask BB to stop bringing up posts because he does not like them.

    If he shuts up I will. I made my point but I will not have words put in my mouth by repetition.

    I have in these cases in fact given BB the benefit of the doubt far more than I get in return.

    I see this telling me to shut up and not argue the point is unequal treatment. I don’t see people saying BB stop it its over. It always takes two to tango yet its me that has to always bow to others. This despite the fact I have taken the higher road on many occasions.

    This is not me bringing things up in a one day argument. Look at my posts. I had left the subject well alone. Then BB comes in with the personal sledge and sly I must be always right posts and others take it up.

    Well I am not always right but when I am being personally attacked because I am gay and standing up for gay rights thats exactly what it is. Just like all those comments meted out to woman.

    There just some things that cannot be let go or are accepted as the norm in the culture of the blog that should never be accepted as the norm

  17. lizzie @ #419 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 2:52 pm

    KayJay

    Glad you turned up. I’m about to relax with a dish of strawberries and cream. Like some? 🙂

    Oh ❗ Miz Liz.

    Strawberries and cream. Pour moi. Sank vous or is it “toi”.

    Are we enviously discussing whipped cream. My Marie instructed me in the addition of the sugar and how to give the lot a good flogging (my words not Marie’s).

    Thank you.

    Normal service will now resume. 😵 Dizzy face.

  18. OC

    I had that in the back of my mind.
    While the consequences are more drastic with a clitorectomy, circumsion is still genital mutilation in my view.
    Adults would, of course, have the option.
    I would ban forcing it on infants.

  19. C@tmomma @ #429 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 2:58 pm

    citizen @ #369 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 2:57 pm

    People like Shelton & co are continually claiming they are a ‘persecuted minority’ but it doesn’t seem to prevent them receiving millions in funding and gaining political support from the likes of Canavan, Abetz, Abbott, Bernardi and Murdoch.

    They should just be honest and say they want to persecute minorities.

    Both Shorten and Turnbull will be on a same same unity ticket re the protection of tax breaks to religious organisations.

  20. Looking for a new dog. Getting rather tired of ads telling me (for example) that “Germandor” is a breed.

    No, it is a German Shepherd/Labrador cross.

    Then there’s Cavoodles. And Moodles. And Schnoodles. And Pugaliers. And Frugs. And anything else you can think of where you put two dog breed names together to pretend they’re not mongrels but A Thing.

  21. Aqualung,
    As I’ve said probably too many times already here, my late husband passed away at the age of 56 from Multiple Myeloma. There is nothing worse than watching the person you fell in love with as a young adult, when they too were vibrant and full of joie de vivre, wither and die on the vine.

    Luckily my late husband didn’t suffer as much pain with his blood cancer as others do with different forms of the disease.

  22. citizen says:
    Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 2:57 pm
    People like Shelton & co are continually claiming they are a ‘persecuted minority’ but it doesn’t seem to prevent them receiving millions in funding and gaining political support from the likes of Canavan, Abetz, Abbott, Bernardi and Murdoch.

    The self-pity of the highly-privileged is really ridiculous.

  23. My thinking is that this is a practice run. If KK runs it close and gets a swing to Labor then there are bragging rights for that. Equally the Libs will be forced to put resources into a seat that they would have hoped would be easy and cheap. I also wonder how easy fund raising is when it is as a result of a clerical oversight. For Labor it’s a free hit and KK as a seasoned politician can spend the entire campaign whacking the government much to the delight of the opposition. It remains to be seen how good JA actually is at campaigning as I don’t think he’s ever really been challenged. I know he’s won three elections but 2010 was Labor in disarray, 2013 was Labor in decline and 2016 it swung a bit back to Labor. But in those three campaigns the only candidate of consequence was Mckew in 2010. The other thing to consider is the likelihood of a general election in the next 12 months. If the polls remain similar to now my feeling is that JA may retire assuming KK doesn’t do that this time. I suspect he doesn’t have much appetite for opposition. I think Labor’s plan is to run him close this time and pick it up next time.

  24. zoomster @ #379 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 3:03 pm

    Looking for a new dog. Getting rather tired of ads telling me (for example) that “Germandor” is a breed.

    No, it is a German Shepherd/Labrador cross.

    Then there’s Cavoodles. And Moodles. And Schnoodles. And Pugaliers. And Frugs. And anything else you can think of where you put two dog breed names together to pretend they’re not mongrels but A Thing.

    And then brazenly charge a motza for them.

    My advice, for free and unsolicited, is to go for a Rescue Dog. They will love you like no other for saving them from unimaginable cruelty.

  25. Both Shorten and Turnbull will be on a same same unity ticket re the protection of tax breaks to religious organisations.

    They aren’t stupid, Rex! 😀

  26. Boerwar @ #377 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 3:02 pm

    OC

    I had that in the back of my mind.
    While the consequences are more drastic with a clitorectomy, circumsion is still genital mutilation in my view.
    Adults would, of course, have the option.
    I would ban forcing it on infants.

    Probably too personal, but anyway he’s not around to be embarrassed about it any more, so my late husband nearly bled to death as a result of being circumcised. He probably had undiagnosed haemophilia, like his sons(but they’ve been diagnosed).

  27. KayJay

    Not whipped cream. Pure thick Tasmanian with no additives except a squirt of kirsch and a sprinkle of soft dark brown sugar. Mmmm.

  28. C@tmomma @ #436 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 3:05 pm

    zoomster @ #379 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 3:03 pm

    Looking for a new dog. Getting rather tired of ads telling me (for example) that “Germandor” is a breed.

    No, it is a German Shepherd/Labrador cross.

    Then there’s Cavoodles. And Moodles. And Schnoodles. And Pugaliers. And Frugs. And anything else you can think of where you put two dog breed names together to pretend they’re not mongrels but A Thing.

    And then brazenly charge a motza for them.

    My advice, for free and unsolicited, is to go for a Rescue Dog. They will love you like no other for saving them from unimaginable cruelty.

    As a former rescue dog carer – Do look around and on sites like Pet Rescue. Most breeds and age ranges are available or become available. Mine have all been rescues and one was a beautiful pure golden labrador. My current Lions Hearing Assistance Dog is also a rescue. Lions source most of the dogs for this purpose from rescues.

  29. OC

    Yeah how dare some one repeat that letting commercial business discriminate on the basis of sexuality is homophobia.

    How dare someone say put jew or black in that statement and you would disagree with your own post.

    How dare someone not stand up to someone saying I never said that and then going on to try and argue that yes business can discriminate.

    How dare I keep repeating myself.

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