Two polls from Bennelong:
• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.
• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.
phoenixRed:
*Groans*
😆
Alexander 52.3 to 47.7. I remember how popular Wran was and eventually the mud started to stick regardless of truth as even he conceded.
Keneally certainly didn’t enjoy Wran’s stellar ratings and liberal seats very rarely turf out bad candidates let alone reasonably popular ones.
C@t:
Yes, I agree. I was being tongue in cheek.
For me Moore is a thoroughly illegitimate candidate based entirely on his own conduct when on the Supreme Court.
The accusations levelled against him just further reinforce what a hypocrite he is, like so many of his fellow christianists.
Boerwar
Have you ever asked Bluey if he has any interest in by-elections?
As I’ve pointed out before, I am a very bad pundit & punter. To help KK I’ll predict a narrow win to JA.
Libs 51.5% – 48.5% TPP by the time the seat is declared.
Also BB
To be crystal clear. It was you that made the mistake not me. As the responses of other posters showed.
It was not a pile on except for the fact you were arguing that it was ok for commercial cake bakers to discriminate. You tried back tracking saying it was about assholes after it was pointed you were arguing a homophobic point.
Other posters besides me asked you this very point. It was not my perception alone.
Yet you say its me who can’t admit to being wrong. I think its called projection.
Stop bringing it up and saying commercial cake bakers can refuse to serve gay people and I will stop calling out the homophobia
BB
Sorry remembering this is discussion about legislation.
What’s the problem? There are male white bores, male white pueriles, male white oldies, male white ignoramuses. How much more diverse could they get?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-18/channel-9-promotes-commentary-team-of-eight-white-men,-cops-it/9164518
Moksha
Bluey is struggling.
With around half the Reef now dead he has nowhere to live and not much to eat. He was hoping Pauline would do her Healthy Reef Stunt Dive near his cave, but no such luck.
guytaur says:
Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 1:16 pm
The reason Norway, for example, has a Sovereign Wealth Fund is because its economy as a whole is in structural surplus in the current account, meaning it has a recurring inbound savings flow. These savings could be absorbed into the domestic economy, with the effect of radically increasing domestic consumption, imports and the exchange rate. They would be highly destabilising in the non-oil sectors of the economy. So those savings are siphoned into a capital account and invested outside Norway. Norwegian savings are allocated to other economies.
We do not have a structural surplus in the current account, meaning we do not have permanent inbound savings inflows. The Norwegians are capital exporters. We are capital importers. It is not open to Australia to create an SWF financed from its own savings. Australia would have to borrow from abroad in order to establish an SWF. That would make no sense.
An SWF by definition invests outside the national domain. Why would we want to do that? We need to invest more in our domain. To be clear, an SWF, owned by Australia, would borrow from abroad to invest abroad. We need to mobilise more investment in Australian production rather than in production elsewhere.
sallyrugg: 38.2% aren’t against LGBTIQ people, they were just targeted and lied to.
Hard, hard No voters far smaller – usually polls around 12%
guytaur,
Good luck trying to get Bushfire Bill to admit he got it wrong.
BK
What have you got against boring, puerile, ignorant old white men?
Nuns are required to wear habits. Clearly I need to inform the ones I know. I seriously doubt you’d pick a nun out of a crowd these days other than the ones in the conservative orders.
I also worked with a young lady who wore the hijab. We were discussing it one day as she used to wear different colours each day. It was her choice. No one forced her to. She swore like a trooper and was pretty strong willed. I’m sure there are women who are forced to wear it but I wouldn’t assume they all are.
‘guytaur says:
Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 1:51 pm
Also BB
‘To be crystal clear. It was you that made the mistake not me.’
Goes without saying, but gets said anyway. All the time. Every time.
Real Time live now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6id7J2eIK4&feature=em-lss
Aqualung
Exactly right. And the Nun’s Habit is no longer used much in Western countries.
But if women want to wear whatever they want, I am not about to stop their choices, whatever the grounds of that choice. Same goes for Jewish women who wear wigs (they must be hot in summer), men rolled cloths or little caps on their heads, or orange robes or blue ties.
I am sure it will all work itself out in the end. By the time climate change really hits who wears what won’t matter much to anyone, including the wearers.
Choice of clothing is not going to appease the angry Global Warming Goddess.
BW
What is the point of your intervention?
Whether Labor win in Bennelong depends on what happens during the campaign period. It’d not always like this. But I reckon this will be one of those episodes when stay-to-day politics and campaigning will determine the result.
If there is more destabilisation of the Turnbull Government by the Archeo-Branches; if a lot of disqualifications appear likely on Dec 1 or if there are more scenes of disarray in the government, then the voters of Bennelong will turf Alexander.
We cannot know just now whether these things will happen. But on the assumption that they could happen, Labor will be campaigning with everything they have. If events favour Labor, this will be enough for Keneally to win.
When it comes to women’s rights, Islam and Christianity have often been out of step – sometimes Islam has been more progressive than Christian societies, sometimes it lags behind.
The attitude to women pervasive to both religions comes from exactly the same cultural heritage – both religions come from the Middle East and have adopted the attitudes of that region.
When I was young, women were required to wear hats, gloves and stockings – effectively achieving the same ‘coverage of flesh’ as a hijab, and for exactly the same reasons, based on much the same teachings.
If Islam is only half a century behind us, that’s no biggie in the scheme of things.
Breifly
Whatever the result KK has already shown her worth as a candidate. We have polling too close to call.
This from what was going to be an LNP win.
No matter how you cut it thats a win for Labor and KK.
More from wishful thinking than anything else I’ll plump for a 50.0002/49.9998 victory for KK.
guytaur says:
Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 2:06 pm
Breifly
Whatever the result KK has already shown her worth as a candidate. We have polling too close to call.
This from what was going to be an LNP win.
No matter how you cut it thats a win for Labor and KK.
A moral victory, for sure. I would love to see Labor with an extra vote in the House, the LNP in a structural minority, poised for obliteration.
briefly
A few days ago we could not realistically consider that. Now with too close to call polling all bets are off. Thats why its a win.
This is after the smear campaign was rolled out.
If I was the LNP i would be very nervous. I am not predicting anything other than if current campaign tactics continue I think KK will win. If LNP change their campaign tactics that may change. Along with as you point out external events.
Thats why I applauded Labor bringing KK in. It changed the game totally. Great politics from Labor.
Since a change of member in Bennelong could have real impacts on the balance of power in parliament, I don’t think we will see the usual level of anti-government protest vote. So I’m punting for 52/48 to Alexander.
Good ‘prediction’ above Briefly about Bennelong.
However I’ll pick Liberal 51.5% – 48.5% , given the seat and demographics.
Also earlier this morning I had a near miss from a potential controversy.
I was buying bread (sourdough rye) this morning and the person next to me ordered a cake. After some questioning about style and size, the baker asked “what inscription would you like?”
I froze, stood stock still, as the person replied “Happy 12th Birthday”.
I relaxed, though my vision of being a witness in a case before the HRC and being interrupted by Tony Jones on Q&A vanished. Crisis averted.
G
The point is that you seem utterly incapable of ever admitting that you might be wrong. Or that there are shades of grey. Or that nuance exists. Or even that two views, even if not the same, might be right at the same time.
The point is that you seem to have, without fail, been right in your first post every single time.
Because you never, ever shift your position on anything once someone has disagreed with you in a post. Or once you have disagreed with them.
The corollary is perfectly obvious. If someone disagrees with you, THEY must always be wrong.
At no time do you stop in any discussion with anyone until you have made the last post on a topic in which you have, once again, demonstrated beyond a shadow of doubt that you are right.
And that is that they are wrong.
The point of my intervention was to make an observation about the unvarying pattern of your posts.
Might I suggest that you post any one of your observations about some other poster just the once?
Then we would all know, for 100% certain, two things for the price of one.
The first is what your (always correct) views are.
The second is that if someone has a different view from you they are wrong, will always be wrong and always were wrong.
JR
😆
JR
LOL.
But, JR, what if it had been a 12th wedding anniversary for a gay couple?
BW
I have admitted to being wrong. In this case I am not. There is no shade of grey here. Treating someone as unequal is discrimination.
Its IS that black and white. To try and make out anything else is BS.
Canavan ramps up the hyperbole at today’s ACL conference:
The headline on the DT paper today was “Labor Grand Slam”
G
I rest my case.
One thing that pleases me about Kevin Rudd is that, post politics, he hasn’t turned on his own kind. Like Mark Latham. He’s just as much a Labor man now as he ever was.
Zoomster I agree. Give them 50 years and people will be wondering what all the fuss is about. Unfortunately the Hansonites are still well and truly living in a past that only ever existed in their tiny minds.
Which gives me an excuse to put this up
https://youtu.be/YmPwYhHX_jY
citizen @ #325 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 2:23 pm
But it’s okay for teh gays, eh, Matt?
It’s a KristanaSlide for me, she has the Big Mo. JA is a gray, faceless man who is causing this by election through his indolence. Malcolm Turnbull is as popular as a pork pie at a Bar Mitzvah.
ALP 52.5
LIB 47.5
BW
There you go. Making an intervention because you don’t like a strong argument for equality. Sorry if that upsets you.
It will not stop me arguing that people should be treated equally before the law.
This goes back a long way this argument. The theocracy types lost long ago. They continue to fight for discrimination Gay people have suffered centuries of homophobia
Just like Blacks have suffered centuries of homophobia.
The majority of Australians voted for equality under the law.
Dislike it as much as you like thats the reality
lizzie @ #269 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 12:31 pm
Is this his catholicism speaking
It’s hard to know what Keating is really thinking, but I risk some deductions:
This suggests that the ‘struggle at the end of life’ has merit above actually being alive longer in terms of hours, days, weeks or months. It raises the concept of salvation through sacrifice, an especially Catholic Christian concept, embodied in the belief in the saintliness of martyrdom, the more gruesome the more holy, and purgatory, the need for painful cleansing before the reward of a Heaven. I’m only a few years younger than PK, and as a child it was a common retort to any complaint of physical discomfort to ‘offer it up for the holy souls in Purgatory’.
The ethics of the relief of suffering vs the ethics of preservation of life, regardless, is far from clear, to me.
This is Henry Higgins stuff, words words words. At the core, the question to ponder is the meaning of life (cue lots of youtubes) and the meaning of suicide, and ultimately, what beliefs are held about what happens after death. It’s the latter on which this debate revolves in my opinion. And it was / is a very Catholic belief, at least in my day, that suicide was a mortal sin (permanent removal from the Deity) an ultimate offence against God, in that it was God’s life as given to you, and therefore not yours to take.
So it smacks of catholicism to me.
(There’s much of the last few days worth commenting on, especially around the claims of the palliative care specialists. )
One of the things the christians are worried about is losing government funding. Apparently there was a case in NZ where some christians stood to lose their funding if they continued to discriminate against gays.
IMO christian organizations who are paid contractors to provide services to Australians should be cut out of contracting panels if they propose to (or do) discriminate against gays in employment and/or in service provision.
I here use ‘gays’ as shorthand for all LGBTI folk.
Aqualung,
I’ll see your ‘Living In the Past’ and raise you a ‘Thick As A Brick’. For Pauline 🙂
https://youtu.be/u9bk2MrMGaA
“But, JR, what if it had been a 12th wedding anniversary for a gay couple?”
OMG I didn’t think of that, BTW the bakers concerned are Chinese.
JA = + 10%.
Stuffing up citizenship and forcing a by-election -1%
Howard’s intervention -1%
Turnbull’s unpopularity – 3%
KK’s nomination -6%
Bernardi bleeding votes -2%
Obeid on the nose +4%
JA to win by 51/49.
Very scientific, Justin Mckew partly ousted the Howard Gov. K.K could be the destruction of the Turnbull Government, We can but dream!.
BW
Sorry that should read blacks have suffered centuries of racism
The most pertinent comment I have read was that, if the Churches want a say in how the rest of us live our lives, then they can pay taxes like the rest of us!
“‘There’s no other country to flee to if we lose’
2:08PM
Senator Matt Canavan tells Australian Christian Lobby conference he’ll fight to ensure conservatives don’t become a ‘persecuted minority’.”
There is always the Ark, I suppose they would be boat people.
g
I did not say that you were wrong. It is unnecessary for anyone ever to say that you are wrong. Because you are never wrong.
In fact, I said that you were always right.
And that you would always seek to post the last post demonstrating that you were right and that anybody who disagreed with you just had to be wrong.
Which is exactly what you have done in your last two posts and which you will continue doing in your next thousand posts.
I still rest my case.
JR
They could always go to Manus. Apparently there is brand spanking new first class accommodation there going begging.
BW
This is a personal attack. This is because I am standing up for what I believe. I will continue to so paste no matter what bullying tactics you try and use to discredit me.
Saying I will always post to have the last word to say I am right is very funny coming from you who continually repeats posts correcting other people who disagree with you.
You do not fool me with your attempts at bullying here.
I admit to mistakes as much as anyone else. I do not always end my arguments with I am right. I do listen. I do correct.
What I don’t do is let myself be bullied by people like you saying I must have the last word on everything to make me shut up.
Its pretty simple. If you truly believe that give me the last word. Then its over. You can continue to believe what you like in private.