Two polls from Bennelong:
• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.
• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.
grimace says:
Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 12:44 pm
don @ #276 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 9:42 am
grimace says:
Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 12:37 pm
Lets have a sweep for the results of the Bennelong by-election. The prize is gloating rights.
My wild guess prediction is a Labor win on a 13% swing.
Anyone else?
Labor to win on a knife edge, on preferences, just, after several iterations.
Do you have a % and I’ll keep track?
Labor by 0.3%
Yeesh! Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
bemused (Block)
Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 12:38 pm
Comment #273
Thank you.
Time for my afternoon nap attack. 😴😴
Confessions
Good to see. The more the LNP do this the more votes they will lose. With a too close to call election after that attack has been used we have the proof thats not a winning strategy.
I would imagine this to be the case elsewhere in the country too.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/17/queensland-lnp-could-form-government-with-one-nation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
guytaur says:
Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 12:54 pm
OC
The idea was good. The idea was to follow the Keating government tax on gas etc. This to set up a Sovereign Wealth Fund.
It was in no way a “nationalisation” of industry. It was also not Western Australia specific it applied to all mining no matter the State. It was just WA had the biggest money to fight back. Led by that “champion” of the WA people Gina Rinehardt who wants $2 an hour wages.
To set up a Sovereign Wealth Fund, the economy would need to be in permanent net external surplus in the current account. The SWF absorbs the “excess” national savings represented by this surplus, preventing the exchange rate from rising and holding the savings in a capital account outside this economy. The thing is…we do not have a surplus in the current account. We have the opposite, and rather than investing our national savings elsewhere, we permit others to invest their national savings here.
As for the RSPT….it was utterly dim-witted fiscal and industry policy. It purported to make Commonwealth taxpayers into quasi-shareholders in every speculation, every sand or gravel pit, every unworkable mineral deposit, every mine closure.
guytaur:
The Libs were always going to go the personal route with KK. I think Labor are doing the right thing by making the by-election all about the performance of the govt not the former local member.
Briefly says:
Among the measures that can be taken to promote social change in these communities is to work continuously to advance female equality. Sexist and homophobic prejudice are rooted in patriarchy. We have to undo patriarchy. This is as applicable to the paleo-Christian mobs as it is to the conservative branches of Islamic, Hindu, Sikh and other traditions. We need to find and promote both the feminists and the fighters for social justice…the very people the Reactionary Branches most resent.
Are you saying that we should not respect the cultural traditions of the many people who make up this great immigrant land? In other words these people need to come around to the Australian way of thinking (or at least your version of it). Assimilation rather than Multi-culturalism.
bemused @ #284 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 11:46 am
Looks like a pair of hair triggers pointed at eachother, from my perspective. Aren’t there more interesting and important topics to consume bandwidth?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/18/as-same-sex-marriage-gets-a-leg-up-expect-some-right-wing-games?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
briefly
You mean exactly as Royalties do now. The only difference is which government is getting the revenue. That and the model.
However the mining industry was in surplus. Thats why it was called a boom.
Not having a Sovereign Wealth Fund is precisely why Howard wasted the money.
I think KK will fall short in Bennelong. 9.7% margin is a tough call, even in a byelection.
Swing to Labor of 6-8%.
The definition of cognitive dissonance.
Labor could always make the Bennelong election about John Howard. 😉
Bishop is failing politics 101. Voters are thoroughly sick of inter-personal sledging. In insulting Keneally, she’s is actually campaigning against Alexander.
Bishop, Cash and Cormann all get into this stuff. It must raise their stocks in the WA party. But voters cannot stand it.
grimace @ #272 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 12:37 pm
I’m a pessimist at heart but hope springs eternal. Labor to win on a 10% swing.
The point about Western Sydney is not the ethnic makeup. Its about organised religion and culture of society around it.
Thats why same ethnicity in other areas voted yes.
Confessions @ #257 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 1:17 pm
She’s voting to legitimise Child Abuse!
Fess
Pot/kettle, as you say. Mesma can’t ever see anything except cynicism. Very important for Liberals to believe there is nothing genuine in politics. 🙁
I thought RSPT stood for Really Stupid Profits Tax.
Guytaur, when you said ‘Those Filipino Evengelicals knew I was gay. They did not stop saying hello and doing normal human things.’ it reminded me of a debate on homosexuality I saw with Stephen Fry on one side and some African archbishop on the other.
Fry made the point that the bishop was very cordial and nice face to face, but the church he represented made out Fry to be the devil incarnate because he was gay.
It was a very telling point and the bishop looked very uncomfortable while he made it.
C@tmomma Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 10:30 am Comment #197
Be very careful here, C@!
I’ve always been very suspicious of this ba#tard posting on here.
His glib explanation about how there are loads of, supposedly, different “Steve777’s” posting around the place just doesn’t wash with me.
😀
Oakeshott Country
There are undesirable “cultural traditions” in all cultures ,including ours. So what would be wrong with seeing those “traditions” changed/stopped ?
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 1:15 pm
I’m saying feminism and social justice go together; that emancipation is as important in the paleo-cultures as in any others. I’m not a subscriber to the idea that cultures are inherently immutable. I believe in people. People transcend culture.
C@t:
The only excuse I can think of it is that it is Alabama after all!
Briefly
Yes eg Muslims. Australia has a gay Iman. South Africa has a gay mosque. Saudi Arabia is letting women move around unescorted.
Culture can and does change.
53/47 to the Libs in Bennelong is my pick. I think KK will go the way Peter Beattie did in 2012. Once was more than enough thank you.
JA = + 10%.
Stuffing up citizenship and forcing a by-election -1%
Howard’s intervention -1%
Turnbull’s unpopularity – 3%
KK’s nomination -6%
Bernardi bleeding votes -2%
Obeid on the nose +4%
JA to win by 51/49.
OC:
If our government and laws are supposedly secular then shouldn’t the point about wearing the burqa be that it should be the woman’s choice whether she wears it or not?
Calls to ban the burqa (as well as force women to wear them) have the feel of trying to control a woman’s right to self determination.
davidwh @ #325 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 1:28 pm
First time for me entering one of these.
Guessing hopefully 52/48 to Kristina Kenneally.
In the sweep, I’ll go for a narrow Labor victory. The Liberal-National-Murdoch Coalition, aided by their big business allies, will pull out all stops if a Labor victory looks likely. No trick will be too low. There will also be selective bribes to swinging voters and critical electorate. Further, there is as C@t pointed out, the traditional late swing in the last few days, especially when Labor is well ahead, changing landslides to comfortable wins (e.g 2007), comfortable wins to narrow wins (2010).
2PP 51.3.
I’d like to enter the Bennelong sweep.
Liberals to hold with 51.9% 2PP .
C@tmomma @ #121 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 6:58 am
Maybe post a screenshot of the settings that come up when you click the ‘C+’ icon?
Also, if you’re stuck with no ‘Unblock’ controls, you should be able to unblock everyone by simply clearing your browser’s cache/cookies as a workaround.
My last post related to the Federal election. If the sweep is about Bennelong, I’d predict a narrow Liberal victory. A 10% swing, especially when any passably informed voter knows that Government is at stake, is a very big ask. Probably something like 47-53 breaking to the Government. But the seat will be in play in the next Federal election.
I’m old enough to have attended a school run by nuns. I have to say I don’t get the nasty campaign against Muslim women wearing the hijab and or the burqua minus the full face covering.
Admittedly when I first started to see them I was taken back but someone mentioned nuns and I thought fair enough.
I do find the face covering confronting for some strange reason. It is rare these days to see nuns in habits.
Bemused, you make a lot of comments that you claim are “tongue in cheek”, but only when you’re caught out on them. It’s why you get banned from here on a semi-regular basis. Some people don’t see them as so funny, especially when they start to get repeated by others as gospel truth.
I didn’t mention your name once yesterday. It’s your own sensitivity that got you making the usual snarky remarks today, but only when you thought it was “OK” to do so, i.e. unprovoked, after others had already joined in. All utterly predictable behaviour.
If you’re looking for classic bullying and mobbing behaviour, go into your bathroom and take a look in the mirror. You’re absolutely famous for boorish behaviour around here. People don’t often take you on because you come back at them so strongly: casting aspersions on their character, their mental health and their motivations. Usually what you do is never argue a point, but you quote their post in full and then add between one and three words as a brilliantput-down.
I don’t have sock-puppets and never have, not here nor anywhere else. William will attest to this, at least as far as this blog is concerned. I prefer to stand on my own devices and fight my own battles.
This all started when Guytaur made a stupid comment, and then wouldn’t admit he’d over-stepped the mark (or more accurately admitted it, then a few sentences later repeated the original remark anyway). Looking up-thread a bit he is STILL arguing the point, like some lawyer droning on about the construction and semantics of clauses in a complex contract.
His being gay doesn’t give him a licence to decide what comments are homophobic and which are not. Homophobia is a personal fear of homosexuals. You can’t have a homophobic comment without its writer being a homophobe. The comment and the state of mind are inseparable. Ergo, the accusation was that because I wrote what Guytaur decided was a homophobic statement (and he spelt this out precisely), that therefore I was anti-gay, that I wouldn’t serve gay people in my shop (if I had one) – or wouldn’t have Jews for that matter either. That was a nice add-on. It’s all utter bullshit, completely confected outrage, of course, yet he persists in defending it.
It didn’t take long before C@tmomma began “reminding” others of previous allegedly homophobic posts of mine (apparently saying you’re not gay and happy to be heterosexual is now classed as “homophobic”). And so things snowballed.
For once I eschewed my normal reaction – which is to laugh at the stupid antics an “uber” few get up to around here – and actually defend myself, plus indirectly stick up for the other occasional visitors who get hounded off the reservation by the same small group of people and their “yes men”, every single time. It seems it’s not enough to merely disagree with people. There’s also a compulsion to denigrate them and insult them in front of others. Does it make you feel better about yourself? I can’t think of any other reason why you’d bother.
Confessions says: Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 1:27 pm
C@t:
The only excuse I can think of it is that it is Alabama after all!
********************************************************************
Q: What new law was recently passed in Alabama?
A: When a couple gets divorced, they’re still brother and sister!
Q: Why are there so many unsolved murders in Alabama?
A: There are no dental records and everyone has the same DNA
I am not into making actual numbers predictions normally.
However if the LNP continue to campaign as they have thus far by using smear I predict that they will lose.
The smear strategy was used by Jackie Kelly assuming prejudice on the part of voters.
That was rejected.
The same will happen here. The people of Bennelong lived through the Obeid years and the following corruption findings of ICAC about the LNP. They don’t forget.
Every minute the LNP use the smear they are not standing on their record or Alexanders.
They are conceding the field.
Confessions @ #269 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 1:27 pm
No, it’s something more serious than that. It is a demonstration that the Elites know that they, or their children, will hardly be troubled by the sexual predators amongst them. So they find ways to excuse it so that yet another of their grubby bunch makes it to the top of the greasy pole, so as to be able to effect their disgusting policies. That favour THEM.
It is interesting one. Respecting cultural and religious traditions and customs even when those practices are sexist and based on a model steeped in patriarchy, and is against one’s own feminist values, is one uncomfortable position. I know that any religious practice, well give me a boy until he is seven etc etc Jesuits training model.
But it must be done, so I do it.
One thing that is not clear to me is whether the ADF is participating officially in the Yemen blockade which is an act of genocide and beyond any reasonable doubt, a war crime.
It has been reported as ‘conducting exercises’ with what may have been the blockading forces. For those being blockaded this distinction may be a tad too fine altogether.
Turnbull and Bishop are mute on this.
We are trying to stop two third party countries from sorting our Manus humanitarian mess by instructing New Zealand to butt out while Trump plays in a desultory fashion with the lives of of Dutton’s 1200 victims.
We are definitely supporting with arms and training the biggest mass murderer in the PI since independence. He has murdered far more than Marcos ever did.
For this purpose, I am not counting the 150,000 who have died mostly in Mindanao as a result of the ongoing Philippines Civil War.
The biggest killers were, of course, the Japanese* with the Americans a distant second.
*As usual, we will be asked to emote on Hiroshima Day. Around 10 times as many PI civilians died in World War Two as did in Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. We will not be asked to emote about that. Now, why would that be?
Either JA or KK will win.
Can I claim my bragging rights now? 🙂
BB
No you are still arguing the point not me. I have not brought up my comments to you the other night except in response to YOU raising them.
PR!!! 😀
I think a definite swing to Labor in Bennelong but a mountain to climb to win. 52-48 to JA.This would still be a good result.Any closer than this for Turnbull and he is in serious trouble.
Aqualung,
A nun’s habit is a uniform of office, not something required to be worn by every woman in the religon, so its not quite the same thing.
These polls though will get the Libs panicking.
In relation to several issues I make the following observations:
1. I support abortion for gender based conditions that would lead to seriously bad life outcomes.
2. I support banning abortions for gender based abortions designed (primarily) to abort female foetuses.
3. I support banning genital mutilations which are carried out solely for religious purposes.
4. I support punishing anti-vaxxers in a real way. I particular support banning their children from schools and cutting any social security transfers.
AM
The nuns habit from the past is just used as an example of religiuous garb that we were comfortable seeing woman wearing. Its no more an equivalence that that.