Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; YouGov: 52-48

Essential has Malcolm Turnbull losing ground on personal approval, but not voting intention; YouGov does the opposite.

No change on voting intention this week from Essential Research, with Labor continuing to lead 54-46 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: Actually, it was 53-47 last week. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is steady on 8%). Monthly leadership ratings confirm Newspoll’s picture of declining personal support for Malcolm Turnbull, who is down five on approval to 37% and up six on disapproval to 49%. However, Bill Shorten hasn’t done brilliantly either, being down two on approval to 35% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and making only a slight dent in Turnbull’s 42-28 lead as preferred prime minister, which now stands at 40-28.

Other findings:

• Forty per cent approve of a requirement that for MPs to provide declarations about their eligibility, while 44% say this does not go far enough. Forty-nine per cent say MPs found to have been invalidly elected should should repay their public funding, compared with 30% who thought otherwise.

• Forty-five per cent felt the same-sex marriage postal survey was a bad process that should not be repeated; 19% felt it good, but not one that should be repeated; and 27% thought it a good process that should be used more often.

We only have the report from the Guardian to go on at this point, with primary votes to follow with the publication of Essential’s full report later today.

The fortnightly Fifty Acres-YouGov poll records a break to Labor, who are now 52-48 in front after uncharacteristically trailing 51-49 in their last few polls. However, the pollster’s distinguishing peculiarity – the strength of support recorded for minor parties – is more pronounced than ever, as the Coalition sinks five to 31% and Labor only picks up one to 34%, with One Nation up two to 11% and the Greens up one to 11%. As usual, the two-party total is based on a respondent-allocated preference flow that gives three-quarters of the One Nation vote to the Coalition.

The pollster also has its occasional personal ratings for a range of politicians, which are unusual in being relatively favourable over all, and having low uncommitted ratings. Contrary to the other pollsters, Malcolm Turnbull records little change since early September, with approval steady at 44% and disapproval down one to 47%. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 45% and down two to 44%, and Pauline Hanson’s ratings are not unlike those of the major party leaders, with approval up three to 45% and down two on disapproval to 48%. Also featured: Richard Di Natale (up three to 29%, down six to 33%), Nick Xenophon (up one to 53%, steady on 28%), Bob Katter (up one to 37%, steady on 41%), Tony Abbott (up two to 36%, down one to 56%) and Christopher Pyne (steady on 32%, up one to 45%).

Other findings are that respondents want same-sex marriage legalised straight away if the survey result is yes, though 42% think opponents should vote with their consciences in parliament; they overwhelmingly favour a “full parliamentary audit” on Section 44; and they want a much harder line on tax avoidance and evasion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

969 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; YouGov: 52-48”

Comments Page 2 of 20
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  1. GG

    Yep. As I said its a totemic issue for the LNP.

    No rationality allowed. The fact that Patterson’s bill includes discrimination towards single woman has reverberated to voters. The damage to the LNP is immense.

    As 4Corners showed last night its a battle for the soul of the Liberal Party and it future or lack therof into the future.

    I found the historian’s comparison to Labor just before Whitlam took over very telling.

    This mob are indeed willing not to be in government to win their ideological battle.

  4. joshgnosis: Lambie says she will resign from the Senate at 12 today. She says it is “quite clear” that because of her father she is also Scottish

  5. Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    Steve Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, Brad Parscale, and Jared Kushner all knew about the conspiracy with Wikileaks. This goes all the way to the top, folks! …. we’re no longer lookin’ for conspiracies, we’s countin’ how many. #TeamTreason’s days are numbered.

    According to a source familiar with the congressional investigations into Russian interference with the 2016 campaign, who requested anonymity because the investigation is ongoing, on the same day that Trump Jr. received the first message from WikiLeaks, he emailed other senior officials with the Trump campaign, including Steve Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, Brad Parscale, and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, telling them WikiLeaks had made contact. Kushner then forwarded the email to campaign communications staffer Hope Hicks. At no point during the 10-month correspondence does Trump Jr. rebuff WikiLeaks, which had published stolen documents and was already observed to be releasing information that benefited Russian interests.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/11/the-secret-correspondence-between-donald-trump-jr-and-wikileaks/545738/

  6. The Turnbull Government has always talked a good fight and then folded. I’m guessing that they will do the same on SSM. The internal politics of the LNP means that there will have to be compromises on this issue. Otherwise they will implode.

  7. WB – thead header
    No change on voting intention this week from Essential Research, with Labor continuing to lead 54-46 on two-party preferred.

    Last week Essential was 53-47. Essential has had the habit of doing 2 point jumps to the L-NP recently, and last weeks sample appears to have been another dud, as the move to the L-NP was a rather counter intuitive to events. Barring a change in fortune or another dud sample I would expect 55-45 next week when last week’s sample washes out.

  13. GG

    They will implode. The whole point of what the Patterson Bill is about is to deny an ME bill from going ahead.

    Either the moderates win as Pyne predicted or the hard right does.

    Turnbull by his appeasement from day one of the right is in a lose lose situation now.

    I see the right losing because of the shifting numbers with the citizenship fiasco. It appears the right have been the laziest in doing their paperwork. I think Hollie Hughes will win in the HC. However in the meantime a few no votes are not in parliament giving more weight to the yes votes in the Liberals.

    Turnbull so desperately need a win I think this is a fight the right will lose in parliament just on the numbers. It was tight and losing a few no votes is very damaging for the rights fight to win.

    Thats why you have them back to talking about splitting the party. The talk of people who know they are losing the battle. Winners don’t talk about leaving.

  16. Itep

    Kevin Bonham thought JLN could win the last seat in one or two of the tas seats. If she ran herself she would probably be guaranteed with maybe a second member.

  17. I found this uplifting and soothing, but at the same time exasperating in underlining the superficiality and selfishness and (wilful) ignorance in the current state of our national affairs.

    Mungo Man, 36,000 years older than Abraham.

    “We are dealing with the conflict of white rational, sophisticated science enlightened by the bloody Enlightenment, translated into an Aboriginal land … with an Aboriginal people with an entirely intuitive and empathetic relationship with country,”

    “That Enlightenment was superimposed both on a country they [the ‘enlightened’] didn’t understand and a people they didn’t understand … and we now carry the burden of the fucking Enlightenment. This is because the purely rational mind is incapable of understanding what Aboriginal people are fundamentally on about.”

    “The story of humanity is in the story of those Mungo people. We are cosmophiles – we are cosmopholic. We are connected to the cosmos. This is what you find in that situation – that ritual, these were people of the sun and the stars and the very landscape they lived in.”

    Paul Daley on Jim Bowler ~

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/14/finding-mungo-man-the-moment-australias-story-suddenly-changed

  18. From the GG on the conservative push for SSM legislation
    ‘Conservatives to tackle PM on same sex rights ‘

    Apparently Turnbull has to provide acceptable protections for religion and freedom of speech or be ‘punished‘. (According to ‘senior conservative ministers and MPs).

    I wonder what form the punishment would take, any ideas?

  20. PhoenixRed

    When you have sycophant Sean Hannity giving Assange a platform, it kinda is a dead giveaway that the Trump posse are up to their neck in it.
    Lol!

  21. Bushfire Bill (Block)
    Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 8:47 am
    Comment #38

    Thanks for your post.

    In particular I thank you for the sacrifice in watching, listening to those (I usually think of them as self indulgent, overpaid, incoherent, know nothing, fuckwits – just a list of their virtues) ubiquitous and ever present and seemingly ageless ghosts of the CPG, trying with deadly intent to impress us with their non-existent knowledge and sagacity, and so, he said trying to think of something to match Handsome Prince, I don’t bother to watch, listen or do anything other than ignore the demented twittery of the CPG.

    Regarding the Prince of Wentworth, I put forward the case that the present occupant of the body is an alien, conjured from the fevered mind of that other Malcolm and destined (in similar fashion to the picture of ….) to remain ageless, unwrinkled and serene through all eternity but with the gold circlet showing its age.

    An aside, only yesterday while conversing cleverly about some wrinkled, stooped, bald, deaf, half blind old buzzard; I suddenly realised that looking in the bathroom mirror was doing my head in.

    Long may your fires burn.

    Au revoir mon ami ❗ 😎 😵

    E &OE

  22. Fess

    I think its the Mayor of Devonport who is next up for Senate.

    Could be a win win result in the long run. I have not heard any bad stuff from my Tassie family about him. No rumour mill saying he is a bad mayor. Greens and Labor seem ok with him or there would have been gossip my family would have heard.

  23. GG:

    Local government isn’t recognised in the constitution so the mayor post shouldn’t be considered an office of the crown.

  25. political_alert: Opposition Leader @billshortenmp is in Sydney. He will hold a press conference at 10:15am and address the @AusChamber business lunch at 12:45pm #auspol

  26. C@tmomma @ #49 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 9:01 am

    Good morning Bludgers 🙂

    I’ve been trying to pin it down but now I have it.
    James Paterson reminds me of a weasel.

    Good pick.

    I think I used to work with some of his lazy asshole cousins at the local hospital.

    I used to think he was and is a prick but have since began to have more respect for pricks – LIzzie has made us more respectful with her vicious posting yesterday.

    I like, when out and about, to talk about castration, just to watch the blokes go crutch grabbing (their own).

    Ha de hah. Back to reloading computer.

    😵😵

  27. victoria says: Tuesday, November 14, 2017 at 9:18 am

    PhoenixRed

    When you have sycophant Sean Hannity giving Assange a platform, it kinda is a dead giveaway that the Trump posse are up to their neck in it.
    Lol!

    *******************************************************

    I am just reading Bill Palmers Report …. and he is saying that Manafort and Hannity were great buddies and often phoned each other …..

    Bill says :

    Keep in mind that Paul Manafort was under secret FISA wiretap surveillance during this timeframe. It’s likely that Sean Hannity’s phone calls with Manafort were automatically picked up on that wiretap. That means Robert Mueller has them. These calls certainly weren’t about the weather. Hannity had sure better hope he didn’t discuss anything illegal with Manafort during those phone calls. If he did, then Mueller is surely already investigating him.

    Hannity is another smug a$$hole that I would love to see taken down …

    http://www.palmerreport.com/politics/hannity-mueller-investigate/6043/

  28. Yep

    Garry Kasparov
    Garry Kasparov
    @Kasparov63
    ·
    7m
    Great story. And I hope it’s clear that Wikileaks has been little more than a Kremlin intelligence operation. Any independent “transparency” mission it had ended years ago.
    Julia Ioffe
    @juliaioffe
    SCOOP: Turns out Donald Trump, Jr. corresponded with Wikileaks during the 2016 presidential campaign. My latest.
    (link: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/11/the-secret-correspondence-between-donald-trump-jr-and-wikileaks/545738/) theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

  29. guytaur @ #63 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 9:14 am

    GG

    They will implode. The whole point of what the Patterson Bill is about is to deny an ME bill from going ahead.

    Either the moderates win as Pyne predicted or the hard right does.

    Turnbull by his appeasement from day one of the right is in a lose lose situation now.

    I see the right losing because of the shifting numbers with the citizenship fiasco. It appears the right have been the laziest in doing their paperwork. I think Hollie Hughes will win in the HC. However in the meantime a few no votes are not in parliament giving more weight to the yes votes in the Liberals.

    Turnbull so desperately need a win I think this is a fight the right will lose in parliament just on the numbers. It was tight and losing a few no votes is very damaging for the rights fight to win.

    Thats why you have them back to talking about splitting the party. The talk of people who know they are losing the battle. Winners don’t talk about leaving.

    Not really.

    History shows that the DLP minority splitting from Labor in the 50s kept the Labor party out of office for years and Don Chipp pealing off to form the Democrats was quite a success in helping to keep the Libs out of office during the 80s and 90s.

    So, the Conservatives leaving the Liberal party and teaming up with say Bernardi’s group could become quite a significant force and likely sentence the moderate Libs to an extended period out of office.

    So, the pro-SSM ers in the LNP are going to have to decide whether they are prepared for that to occur or compromise.

  31. PhoenixRed

    I hope not to be disappointed, but I have been expecting Hannity is in a world of trouble. I suspect he kinda knows that, but thinks that somehow Trump will get him out of trouble. But as Rick Wilson keeps reminding all and sundry. Everything Trump touches dies!!

  33. The third person on JLN ticket is the CEO of Rural Health Tas – is this a govt body? She could be an issue if the second is turfed.

  38. “No change on voting intention this week from Essential Research, with Labor continuing to lead 54-46 on two-party preferred”
    Bill and Katharine both have a habit of ambiguities or typos that favour the Libs. Part of their education I guess.

  39. GG:

    WE were discussing the issue of local government the other day but admittedly that was in relation to staff not elected members.

    I’m not sure either now that i reflect on that.

  40. For the nonce, ‘taking down’ has morphed from forcing someone out of a position of power to include ‘shooting someone dead’.

  41. SwannyQLD: The take over of Lib Party by the radical right since Abbott first became leader is now complete: Exhibit A QLD One Nation/Lib deal #auspol

  42. Jacqui Lambie says we shouldn’t change the Constitution because of the dual citizenship crisis. Reckons MPs should “suck it up”, fix their mistakes and run again. #auspol

  43. Local government isn’t recognised in the constitution so the mayor post shouldn’t be considered an office of the crown.

    I have to say I have never understood this argument.

    I assume there’s some reasonable legal opinion that local government doesn’t count, but I don’t think it can be this argument.

    Local government in Australia is carved out of State government power, and is constituted by State government legislation (not sure what happens in the territories, that would be another wrinkle), so I would have guessed that councillors and employees of local government would legally amount to employees of the relevant State government.

    If State parliamentarians, or employees of State governments, run afoul of this part of s44 then I don’t understand why local government equivalents would not also.

    But, of course, I’m not a lawyer, and I’m not across all the relevant case history in this area (whatever that may be).

  44. politicsabc: If Australia says Yes, how will your MP vote on a same-sex marriage bill? We asked them all. Every. Single. One. ab.co/2jrJmgk #auspol pic.twitter.com/4kqBkmvfOm

  45. Shellbell /sprocket

    Amicus curae submission has been made available in Hollie Hughes’ eligibility case. Argues Hughes is inelligible.

  47. This is a work of genius from Lambie.

    Remember when Brian Harradine floated the idea of resigning from the Senate so that his running-mate could take over his seat and then he himself could contest the next election and thus his party would have two senators instead of one? In the end he didn’t do it because the consensus was that the electorate would punish his for such a cynical manoeuvre. Now Lambie is about to pull the same trick, but in such a way that she can blame the High Court.

    Brilliant!

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