Queensland election: highlights of week two

ReachTEL once again comes in a few points better for the LNP than other pollsters, while Galaxy Research finds there’s nothing in it between Labor and the Greens in Deputy Premier Jackie Trad’s seat of South Brisbane.

Yesterday’s Sunday Mail had results from a ReachTEL poll of 3435 respondents conducted on Thursday, but rather than report the voting intention results, the paper instead focused on detail about the attitudes and demographics of the poll’s unidentified share of One Nation supporters. Sky News later reported the poll had the LNP with a two-party lead of 52-48, which is unchanged from the last ReachTEL poll in late September, and consistent with the pollster’s recent form. ReachTEL’s three state polls this year have been unique out of the 11 published overall in having the LNP slightly ahead on two-party preferred, rather than slightly behind. Part of the reason is the high 74.5% flow of respondent-allocated preferences from One Nation to the LNP.

Also from the Sunday Mail report:

their education is evenly split, with 31.7 per cent holding a university degree and 29.5 per cent a TAFE certificate, while 31.1 per cent ended their learning after high school, and just over 6 per cent completed their learning after primary school. While some work in construction and mining (9.4 per cent) and others in transport, health, retail and manufacturing, almost 40 per cent of One Nation supporters say they are retired or unemployed. About the same percentage live in households that are trying to make ends meet on less than $50,000 a year, and very few (4.9 per cent) earn more than $200,000. Politically, 45.7 per cent voted for the LNP at the last Queensland election, while 19.8 per cent supported Labor, and 21.1 per cent Katter’s Australian Party.

Today’s Courier-Mail has one last result from the nine electorate-level polls conducted for it last week by Galaxy Research, offering the very big finding that Deputy Premier Jackie Trad is indeed under substantial pressure from the Greens in her seat of South Brisbane.

The poll suggests it’s lineball for the Greens both in respect to their first hurdle of clearing the LNP, with whom they are tied on 29% of the primary vote, and their second in securing enough preferences to overtake Trad on 38% of the primary vote, with the poll crediting them with a 51-49 lead. However, this respondent-allocated preference result may flatter the Greens given that the LNP will have them last on their how-to-vote cards, which history suggests should cause around two-thirds of their preferences to go to Labor.

The full results from the Galaxy electorate polls:

Bonney 39 45 9 50 +2.2
Burdekin 35 35 26 4 49 -2.4
Cairns 37 32 13 7 11 54 -3.5
Glass House 27 33 22 16 50 +0.9
Hervey Bay 31 38 25 4 45 +1.5
Logan 35 20 33 7 52 vs ONP
Mundingburra 29 30 20 6 12 48 -3.8
Rockhampton 33 23 21 9 14 58 -6.0
South Brisbane 38 29 29 49 vs GRN

On the betting markets, some notable movements from Ladbrokes in individual electorates: One Nation leader Steve Dickson is now rated the $1.80 favourite in Buderim, with the LNP on $2.25; the LNP are now $1.75 favourites in Bundaberg, with Labor on $2.75 and One Nation on $4.25; and the Greens are in from $6 to $3 in South Brisbane, with Jackie Trad out from $1.08 to $1.30. There also seems to have been some money for independent Hetty Johnston in Macalister, who is in from $6 to $3.50. The agency now has Labor favourites in 49 seats, the LNP in 39, even money in two (Redlands and Pumicestone), Katter’s Australian Party in two and One Nation in one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9 comments on “Queensland election: highlights of week two”

  1. William,
    My reading of the paper edition is that the ‘poll’ “of 3435 residents across Queensland” was only a survey of 3435 One Nation Supporters. It was about their attitude to different things, for example 69.9% backed Trump, a third follow Rugby League, only 4.5% like soccer.

    31.7 % have Uni degree, 29.5% a TAFE certificate, 31.1% high school, about 6% primary school only.

    About 9% work in construction & mining, but about 40% are retired or unemployed, while about 5% earn over $220,000 P.A.

    At the last state election about 46% voted for the LNP 20% ALP, and 21% KAP.

    Only 13% “are motivated by One Nation’s policies” with about 23% “determined to shake things up”

    Their major concern was immigration, about 34%, then crime 17%, and job creation 17%.

  2. The ALP is not in so much trouble in South Brisbane, as the LNP are putting the Greens last on their preference cards in every electorate. Even if the LNP don’t hand out many in South Brisbane, I doubt the Greens can overtake ALP there.

  3. Just how much will the recent chaos in One Nation play out in the QLD election? Hanson is her own worst enemy…no….sorry….Ashby is.

  4. Boris – I think what she did foresee was that the federal Coalition would be preoccupied with SSM plebiscite, and that the LNP would not be keen on Turnbull visiting. She also knew that Barnaby Joyce was out of Parliament and would likewise be busy running for office in “his” electorate and would probably also be out of the equation.

    I was not expecting her to call an election this year, but I changed my mind when the High Court ruled on Barnaby on October 27th. She called it two days later on October 29th.

  5. The LNP are still rolling Turnbull out in the SE where they think he’s useful. PHON only lost 1 Senator (though twice. Roberts getting s44ed and his replacement defecting). And the people who vote for PHON won’t care about Roberts, in any negative way, because they’ll wave it off as an elite technicality interfering with their representation. Seriously PHON just keeps chugging along at the same polling no matter what stupid stuff they do until they get tainted with the smell of the “establishment” or the party literally collapses from their internal squabbles.

    Also everyone but PHON had been campaigning in Brisbane for over a month before the election was called.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *