Yesterday’s Sunday Mail had results from a ReachTEL poll of 3435 respondents conducted on Thursday, but rather than report the voting intention results, the paper instead focused on detail about the attitudes and demographics of the poll’s unidentified share of One Nation supporters. Sky News later reported the poll had the LNP with a two-party lead of 52-48, which is unchanged from the last ReachTEL poll in late September, and consistent with the pollster’s recent form. ReachTEL’s three state polls this year have been unique out of the 11 published overall in having the LNP slightly ahead on two-party preferred, rather than slightly behind. Part of the reason is the high 74.5% flow of respondent-allocated preferences from One Nation to the LNP.
Also from the Sunday Mail report:
their education is evenly split, with 31.7 per cent holding a university degree and 29.5 per cent a TAFE certificate, while 31.1 per cent ended their learning after high school, and just over 6 per cent completed their learning after primary school. While some work in construction and mining (9.4 per cent) and others in transport, health, retail and manufacturing, almost 40 per cent of One Nation supporters say they are retired or unemployed. About the same percentage live in households that are trying to make ends meet on less than $50,000 a year, and very few (4.9 per cent) earn more than $200,000. Politically, 45.7 per cent voted for the LNP at the last Queensland election, while 19.8 per cent supported Labor, and 21.1 per cent Katter’s Australian Party.
Today’s Courier-Mail has one last result from the nine electorate-level polls conducted for it last week by Galaxy Research, offering the very big finding that Deputy Premier Jackie Trad is indeed under substantial pressure from the Greens in her seat of South Brisbane.
The poll suggests it’s lineball for the Greens both in respect to their first hurdle of clearing the LNP, with whom they are tied on 29% of the primary vote, and their second in securing enough preferences to overtake Trad on 38% of the primary vote, with the poll crediting them with a 51-49 lead. However, this respondent-allocated preference result may flatter the Greens given that the LNP will have them last on their how-to-vote cards, which history suggests should cause around two-thirds of their preferences to go to Labor.
The full results from the Galaxy electorate polls:
|Logan||35||20||33||7||52 vs ONP|
|South Brisbane||38||29||29||49 vs GRN|
On the betting markets, some notable movements from Ladbrokes in individual electorates: One Nation leader Steve Dickson is now rated the $1.80 favourite in Buderim, with the LNP on $2.25; the LNP are now $1.75 favourites in Bundaberg, with Labor on $2.75 and One Nation on $4.25; and the Greens are in from $6 to $3 in South Brisbane, with Jackie Trad out from $1.08 to $1.30. There also seems to have been some money for independent Hetty Johnston in Macalister, who is in from $6 to $3.50. The agency now has Labor favourites in 49 seats, the LNP in 39, even money in two (Redlands and Pumicestone), Katter’s Australian Party in two and One Nation in one.