No change on voting intention this week from Essential Research, with Labor continuing to lead 54-46 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: Actually, it was 53-47 last week. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is steady on 8%). Monthly leadership ratings confirm Newspoll’s picture of declining personal support for Malcolm Turnbull, who is down five on approval to 37% and up six on disapproval to 49%. However, Bill Shorten hasn’t done brilliantly either, being down two on approval to 35% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and making only a slight dent in Turnbull’s 42-28 lead as preferred prime minister, which now stands at 40-28.
Other findings:
• Forty per cent approve of a requirement that for MPs to provide declarations about their eligibility, while 44% say this does not go far enough. Forty-nine per cent say MPs found to have been invalidly elected should should repay their public funding, compared with 30% who thought otherwise.
• Forty-five per cent felt the same-sex marriage postal survey was a bad process that should not be repeated; 19% felt it good, but not one that should be repeated; and 27% thought it a good process that should be used more often.
We only have the report from the Guardian to go on at this point, with primary votes to follow with the publication of Essential’s full report later today.
The fortnightly Fifty Acres-YouGov poll records a break to Labor, who are now 52-48 in front after uncharacteristically trailing 51-49 in their last few polls. However, the pollster’s distinguishing peculiarity – the strength of support recorded for minor parties – is more pronounced than ever, as the Coalition sinks five to 31% and Labor only picks up one to 34%, with One Nation up two to 11% and the Greens up one to 11%. As usual, the two-party total is based on a respondent-allocated preference flow that gives three-quarters of the One Nation vote to the Coalition.
The pollster also has its occasional personal ratings for a range of politicians, which are unusual in being relatively favourable over all, and having low uncommitted ratings. Contrary to the other pollsters, Malcolm Turnbull records little change since early September, with approval steady at 44% and disapproval down one to 47%. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 45% and down two to 44%, and Pauline Hanson’s ratings are not unlike those of the major party leaders, with approval up three to 45% and down two on disapproval to 48%. Also featured: Richard Di Natale (up three to 29%, down six to 33%), Nick Xenophon (up one to 53%, steady on 28%), Bob Katter (up one to 37%, steady on 41%), Tony Abbott (up two to 36%, down one to 56%) and Christopher Pyne (steady on 32%, up one to 45%).
Other findings are that respondents want same-sex marriage legalised straight away if the survey result is yes, though 42% think opponents should vote with their consciences in parliament; they overwhelmingly favour a “full parliamentary audit” on Section 44; and they want a much harder line on tax avoidance and evasion.
A wonderful post it the Guardian; if you’re a Clark and Dave fan you can hear the voices; it really does capture their humor. I do wish they were here for the fun.
John Clarke would think this was pure gold
“One Nation senator, welcome”
“Actually Brian I’m a independent”
“But when you arrived you were one nation. I thought I was interviewing a one nation senator”
“Well you were Brian but when I got in the interview chair I decided to be an independent”
“Can you do that?”
“Of course you can Brian, it’s like being a free agent in the AFL. The money is just as good too. All my voters will understand.”
“All 19”
“You’re missing the point Brian”
We should also have the latest Forty Acres-YouGov poll later today.
Good for a laugh I suppose.
Kudos for Mark Kenny calling a spade a spade…..
…..”Having bombed in the public survey they so loudly demanded, Coalition reactionaries have hit upon a play that shows contempt for their leader and looms as the most brazen betrayal of voter sentiment in a century.”……..
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-great-betrayal-coalition-hardliners-throw-democracy-overboard-to-resist-samesex-marriage-20171113-gzkb9o.html
Any attempt by the LNP to move the goalposts on SSM should be loudly denounced by the ALP and the broad church that is supposedly the LNP is one that wants to allow discrimination against others.
The Puppet President: Former CIA Director Warns Gullible Trump Is Being Manipulated By Putin
Morell said, “It certainly shows that the President is gullible to being manipulated by Vladimir Putin. Putin is a guy who was a trained intelligence officer. He was trained to manipulate people, and that’s exactly what he did with President Trump.”
The former CIA Director also discussed Trump’s troubling view of intelligence agencies, “I think the key issue here with regard to the president and our intelligence community is that he seems to think that it’s a political entity, a political tool and that scares me because the last president who saw our intelligence community that way was Richard Nixon, who then used the FBI and the CIA inappropriately.”
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/13/puppet-president-cia-director-warns-gullible-trump-manipulated-putin.html
Morning all. The One Nation circus rolls on. Will it soon be PHOS – Pauline Hanson’s One Senator Party? Anna Palszczuk must be grateful.
Where does she get her candidates from? I trust Mr Anning was eligible? On past PHON form, I think I’m entitled to ask.
frednk @ #2 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 6:00 am
I am quietly confident of a return to sanity with 2PP 52/48 to the LNP.
😵😵😵
This article by Peter Fitzsimmons casts our politics in a poor light. I find it hard to disagree. Despite some worrying about the dangers of proportional representation, it is Australian politics, not New Zealand, that is dominated by unrepresentative minorities. In the 1980s our economy needed major reform. Today, our federal politics needs major reform.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/98841217/peter-fitzsimons-face-the-facts-australia–nz-is-lapping-us
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Mark Kenny’s scathing contribution is headlined “The great betrayal: Coalition hardliners throw democracy overboard to resist same-sex marriage”.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-great-betrayal-coalition-hardliners-throw-democracy-overboard-to-resist-samesex-marriage-20171113-gzkb9o.html
And Paul Bongiorno says it’s time for Malcolm Turnbull to stare down the hard right. He’s not wrong, but I bet Turnbull won’t!
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/11/13/malcolm-turnbull-stare-down-hard-right/
Turnbull government ministers have largely rejected a push by Coalition conservatives to overturn sections of anti-discrimination law in the event same-sex marriage is legalised.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-ministers-reject-james-patersons-alternative-samesex-marriage-bill-20171113-gzk30z.html
David Crowe tells us that a special Newspoll shows the support for change reached its highest level at the end of the public campaign, even though ¬Coalition and One Nation voters tended to shift against marriage equality as the voting deadline neared. Google.
/national-affairs/newspoll/its-a-yes-as-ssm-support-gathers-pace-in-the-post-newspoll/news-story/d0f80b04859f38a7ee54fcd5c09d8b55
David Marr has penned a good piece on the Coalition conservatives’ newly proposed SSM bill.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/13/hanging-on-for-dear-life-hardliners-change-tack-on-same-sex-marriage
Turnbull has reassured Coalition MPs he can revive the government’s fortunes amid a dual citizenship crisis that looks set to claim high-profile independent senator Jacqui Lambie as soon as this morning.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-defends-his-leadership-as-jacqui-lambie-on-the-brink-over-citizenship-20171113-gzka43.html
Steph Peatling looks at the latest state of parliamentary numbers.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/is-the-parliament-in-chaos-heres-how-the-governments-numbers-look-20171112-gzk05w.html
Laura Tingle says that Canberra has descended into madness over citizenship. Google.
/news/citizenship-crisis-in-canberra-a-descent-into-madness-20171113-gzkg75
The s44 fiasco has highlighted the born-to-rule incompetence of the Turnbull Government and its lack of policy and action — this is a crisis of neoliberalism, says John Passant.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/dual-citizenship-a-neoliberal-crisis,10924
Mike Quigley has slammed the Coalition’s copper-based network as a “colossal mistake” after a senior German executive gave a sponsored speech backing the technology.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2017/11/13/nbn-mike-quigley-ambitious-fibre/
Section 2 . . .
With respect to the Asian trip Peter Hartcher describes Trump as a clown on tour.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/donald-trump-performs-his-clown-act-asia-gets-on-with-its-affairs-20171112-gzk0dq.html
Peter FitzSimons reckons New Zealand is “lapping us” when it comes to progressive politics. He has a point.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/face-the-facts-australia–nz-is-lapping-us-20171112-gzjzpq.html
Adam Gartrell outlines the circumstances of Fraser Anning’s departure from PHON.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/she-made-the-decision-inside-the-shock-collapse-of-one-nations-senate-bloc-20171113-gzkbw5.html
As does Michelle Grattan.
https://theconversation.com/hanson-loses-replacement-senator-before-he-is-even-sworn-in-87355
Institutional abuse victim Duncan Storrar says the Commonwealth Redress Scheme is a cruel joke that continues to make victims feel worthless by not addressing issues of inadequate housing, poverty or ongoing health problems.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/duncan-storrar-porters-cruel-redress-joke-for-abuse-victims,10889
Yesterday in Sydney Amazon lifted the veil on how it will operate in Australia. Google.
/brand/chanticleer/amazon-lifts-the-veil-on-its-australian-marketplace-20171113-gzkixs
Jane Caro writes about the people whose voices are being ignored in the dying with dignity debate.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-voice-that-is-being-ignored-in-the-dying-with-dignity-debate-20171113-gzkah5.html
Greg Jericho, with all the data at his fingertips, says that while the overall economy continues to grow sluggishly, with wages growing at record lows and retail spending following suit, there is little cause for the Reserve Bank to raise rates.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/nov/14/the-seven-year-interest-rate-itch-no-the-rba-shouldnt-scratch
Australia Post trials ‘good-for-nothing’ delivery robot in Brisbane.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2017/11/13/australia-post-trials-delivery-robot/
The combination of higher energy prices, tighter credit controls, hot summers and contract renewals are creating a perfect storm for industrial energy users and creating a “renewal cliff”.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/businesses-face-electricity-contract-renewal-cliff-20171113-gzk9xn.html
Well done Jay Weatherall. Confronted with the success of renewable energy generation, the Liberal opposition can only resort to outdated ideology: “All power generation should be private”. Why?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-13/diesel-generators-installed-in-adelaide/9145332
Section 3 . . .
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell called on Monday for Roy Moore, the party’s Senate candidate in Alabama, to “step aside” over allegations he had sexual contact with a 14-year-old girl decades ago. There are some lovely politicians over there!
http://www.theage.com.au/world/alabama-candidate-roy-moore-urged-to-step-aside-after-underage-sex-revelations-20171113-gzkngx.html
Here’s what is happening at my old stomping ground in SA.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/smart-sa/innovation-in-adelaide-tonsley-precinct-a-collaborative-space-for-creative-thinking/news-story/e55d10c2a9a13cbeb18a853a1c009c82
Melbourne is set to have a new elevated rail line with a lot of things attached to the project.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/life-under-the-viaduct-melbournes-southeast-skyrail-will-get-a-green-up-20171113-gzk4dl.html
Trump has hailed his “great relationship” with the Philippines’ president, Rodrigo Duterte, who stands accused of acting with impunity over a brutal war on drugs that has left thousands dead.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/nov/13/trump-hails-great-relationship-with-philippines-duterte
Elizabeth Knight says we are a nation of cash-poor millionaires.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/australia-a-nation-of-cashpoor-millionaires-20171113-gzk6iq.html
The shake-out in the US junk bond market last week had an ominous feel for traders and may finally mark the top of the post-Lehman boom in corporate credit. The exuberant reach for yield is nearing its limits. A bit of a worry.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/global-credit-market-flashes-early-warning-alert-20171113-gzk3xj.html
Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner
An obviously disturbed David Rowe gives us THIS!
David Pope on Porline’s problem with her party – or is it Ashby’s?
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
Trump on his Asian tour.
Cathy Wilcox and the newly agreed citizenship test.
Peter Broelman on Safe Schools.
And he visits a particular sex shop.
Paul Zanetti and Trump, the easy mark.
Matt Golding and a certain important date.
Golding goes to Bennelong.
A ripper from Mark Knight! Not far off from being a ball-tearer in fact.
Knight’s constitutional sinkhole.
Sean Leahy with a lopsided Dual Citizenship Duel.
Pat Campbell readies us for the SSM legislative debate.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q
Pick of the letters from today’s SMH
“I would be sorry to see Julia Banks and Ann Sudmalis resign from Parliament. I would miss the nodding, sage heads in the background of every government speaker at the dispatch box at every question time.”
Re the conservative proposed bill on SSM. It would be interesting to see what the vote would have been if the bill had been released while the survey was in progress. The Smith bill was known, and could be considered, the Patterson bill was not.
Much is made by a government of their ‘mandate’, but in the case of a single issue plebiscite I think you can say there is no mandate for a conservative throw back bill and there is a strong mandate for Smith’s bill.
The Shovel @TheShovel · 12h12 hours ago
Imagine if your life was so empty that you spent time thinking about how to stop people getting cakes at their wedding
bk
blockquote>>Peter FitzSimons reckons New Zealand is “lapping us” when it comes to progressive politics. He has a point.
Easy answer why. NZ is Rupert free. Just think of the “attitudes” relentlessly pushed by the likes of the Telegraph and the Hun etc etc.
Sorry about the double Shovel post. My load more function hasn’t woken up yet.
You have made a telling point poroti.
For those of you who commented on my pedal tractor restoration here is the finished article. The little fella is chuffed and when he saw it he wanted me to take him to the nearby John Deere dealership where he proudly rode it into the showroom. The staff there were stoked.
Morning all
BK
A fabulous restoration! Your grandson is so adorable, and fortunate to have a wonderfully talented grandpa
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/02/25/i-was-told-lie-manus-island-staffer
So Jacqui Lambie finds out today if she is a dual citizen by descent
BK (Block)
Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 7:31 am
Comment #19
BK
You have made my day. What a wonderful photo of a quietly pleased little boy and Grandpa’s masterpiece of restoration.
Have a good day and please fight off the impulse to depression that must come with the awful BS you trawl to bring us the Dawn Patrol.
😍 😍 😍
Word is that when Trump returns to the USA after the Asia frolick, the next stage of the treason imbroglio is going to ramp up.
This shit show seems to be taking forever. Sigh………..
Kay Jay
Having this pathetic excuse of a federal govt has been easier for me to tolerate and not get down about, due to Victoria currently being run by a state govt that is actually doing stuff it promised to do.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/more-than-400-millionaires-tell-congress-dont-cut-our-taxes-20171113-gzk5rl.html
Goodness it is only 7.50 am daylight savings time and already heading towards 23 degrees!!
Retain this.
@brayshawjb
·
23m
It seems James Patterson is not actually “anti-marriage equality”, he’s just “pro-discrimination”.
#auspol
Socrates @ #11 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 7:09 am
Easy ❗ Damn Guvmint sorta have rules that make the task of cash transfer from poor peoples taxes to the Job Creators 😉 difficult.
The fact that the bill is drafted by someone pro discrimination rather than a believer is a weakness, did the Christian right feel like doing it.
Patterson would say he is anti –
anti-discrimination but the end result is the same.
victoria @ #25 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 7:45 am
Waaall modom (dog know what that means) we, the few, the fortunate few have the government we so richly deserve in the Waratah State of New South Wales (fanfare).
Days like yesterday, for me, having recovered from a dreadful migraine, was euphoric and almost manic with the Poll Bludgers run riot and; as a topping William sent us an email thanking us for our support.
Well, he said, looking around for Asio and AFP officers, (usually cleverly disguised as either dog walkers or the dogs – good supply of black Labradors locally) we, the denizens of this blog should be begging to contribute more.
Simply reading yesterdays input completes my case.
Be of good cheer. I am hoping for a mass “road to Damascus” moment for the pitiless, empathy free citizens, dual or no, who struggle fruitlessly with their pretense of Government.
I am busy reloading my main computer and later have to ring my folk in Canberra. Sad days, as you well know, but we get up in the morning (♫out on the job ♪ work like the devil for my pay♫ while that lucky old…….♫♪) (a little Paul Robeson there) and carry on as though the world has never collapsed about us and, what’s more, never will.
A good day to you and to all our fellows everywhere.
☮ ✌ ☮ ✌ and ☕
Thanks BK
Your tractor restoration skills match those of news aggregation!
On the NBN.
Since when is Tony Abbott throwing a brick through the window a “mistake”.
Kay Jay
And a good day to you. Hoping the migraine gremlins stay away!
Good Morning
Thank you William for your polling roundup. I do find Yougov interesting in the questions it has asked. Like Essential some polling on issues other than just straight 2pp is good. Its a pity Yougov is so peculiar though with its differential lean towards the conservative side of even as it records a higher level of minority party representation.
BK
Thank you for your dawn patrol and sharing your grandson’s joy with all of us. What a great grandpa you make. 🙂
Indeed it does………..
John Schindler
John Schindler
@20committee
·
8m
So Don Jr is tight DM buddies with the world’s most (in)famous RIS front.
Seems important.
The Secret Correspondence Between Donald Trump Jr. and Wikileaks
theatlantic.com
https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/545738/
La Tingle talks about Bill Shorten being one of Turnbull’s 3 key assets (the other 2 being the PPM metric and the lack of alternative Coalition leader’s).
She states this as a self-evident fact, one that doesn’t even warrant discussion nowadays.
But I wonder what she means by it?
Is it because Bill’s suits aren’t up to “harbourside mansion” standard?
Or maybe his nose is too brown, stained from sucking up to all those billionaires?
Could it be that the 900 questions answered at the TURC weren’t quite enough, and that he still falls short on replies regarding some key topics? Like what happened to the AWU minutes from 10 years back? And who *did* pay for Dick Pratt’s private jet? The whole world wants an answer on that one, I’m sure. I mean TURC was just an $80 million Royal Commission. Hardly up to the forensic standards of the Canberra Press Gallery (of which LT is its doyenne)
Curiously though, Tingle doesn’t list a single policy achievement that her Handsome Prince can brag about. Not even the NBN, not Snowy-2, not even the closing down of GM a couple of weeks back (economic rationalist Laura thinks this is a wonderful thing).
Tsk tsk, Ms Tingle, with the PM able to skite about policy triumphs like this, who needs Bill Shorten?
Morning all.
Thanks BK for today’s reading and for sharing your tractor restoration efforts. Your grandson is very cute!
On Marriage Equality I think that Patterson has done the Yes cause a great service. He has highlighted the discrimination and why its not equality. This before arguments start on the legislation.
So now Labor and the Greens and Cross Benchers are warned of how far the LNP right will go to entrench discrimination. I really do think it was a big own goal that will end up making it hard for the civil celebrants to continue to have exemptions as well.
As Turnbull said Dean Smiths Bill is a good starting point and with numbers in the Senate it does not mean a watering down is inevitable. It could mean a strengthening of equality in a rejection of bigotry.
The right tried these same tactics in Tasmania when decriminalisation came in and the politicians there saw the depth of bigotry and as a result Tasmania now has arguably the strongest equality protections for gay people in Australia.
Hopefully history is repeating.
We shall see.
Does anyone ever find YouGov’s primary vote (and TPP for that matter) for the Coalition from 18-24 year olds crazy high? It’s always higher than every other age demographic other than 55+… It sorta explains why the Coalition always seems to be a lot higher in their results, but I don’t see how that is accurate, unless I underestimate the Coalition following within my own age bracket…?
Interesting article on how the giant triton could be a valuable natural control measure for crown of thorns.
(Warning: Includes graphic video of things being eaten alive.)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/09/17/how-a-huge-beautiful-snail-could-save-the-great-barrier-reef_a_23212800/
Bushfire Bill @ #38 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 8:47 am
If Shorten becomes any more unpopular he’ll be PM.
Focussing on popularity when the only metrics that really matter are First preferences and the TPP reveals, once again, that the popularity metrics are just there to promote discussion and controversy.
victoria:
Very interesting. One thing there is no doubt about anymore is that Julian Assange is no friend of transparency or progressive politics.
Victoria
This bit sums up Assange in a nutshell. How delusional can you be?
Kate_McClymont: Unbelievable: Wikileaks was lobbying Donald Trump Jr. to have Julian Assange appointed Australian ambassador to the U.S. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
senthorun: “The Nick Xenophon Team will refuse to support the government’s plans to drug test welfare recipients…”
Punitive welfare policies are damaging.
theguardian.com/australia-news…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/14/plan-to-drug-test-welfare-recipients-in-doubt-after-nxt-vow-to-oppose-it
Is this why Turnbull threw Sharkie under the High Court bus?
The table in this article from David Crowe reveals the Libs are split right down the middle on SSM. Turnbull may have to risk a split in his own Party if he can’t work out a compromise on SSM that will be acceptable to factions.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/its-a-yes-as-ssm-support-gathers-pace-in-the-post-newspoll/news-story/d0f80b04859f38a7ee54fcd5c09d8b55#&gid=null&pid=1
Tom said:
“The best way of making sure that the correct procedure was followed is to have the renunciation finalised before the nomination. There is a reasonable chance that this is what the High Court will decide is necessary (Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer).”
No, the best way of making sure the correct procedure was followed is simply to check that the correct procedures have indeed been followed. This can be done simply by any “auditor” or by the HC, with reference to the 3 or 4 steps laid down by most other countries and widely advertised by them.
For countries where there are no clearcut renunciation procedures, or where the procedures are unreasonably onerous or excessive, the HC will continue to do what it has already declared ….. look at what steps the candidate has actually taken. And we now know that to fire off emails to non-addresses will not be acceptable to the HC.
To use the “finalisation of the renunciation” as the criterion as Tom suggests would be to place the criterion and the determination fully into the hands of another country ….. the HC has repeatedly said that it will not do that.
Bonjour mon ami KayJay.
Secret messages revealed: WikiLeaks told Trump Jr. to convince his father not to concede if he lost
Twitter direct message transcripts between Wikileaks and Donald Trump, Jr. show that although the then-candidate’s son was not always responsive to the infamous leak group, he may have heeded the information they provided him.
Around 6:30 PM EST on Election Day 2016, when most still believed Hillary Clinton would win the election, Wikileaks messaged Trump Jr. advising his father not to concede.
“Hi Don if your father ‘loses’ we think it is much more interesting if he DOES NOT conceed [sic] and spends time CHALLENGING the media and other types of rigging that occurred—as he has implied that he might do,” the message reportedly read, citing Donald Trump’s rumored plans to start his own media network when and if he lost the election.
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/secret-messages-revealed-wikileaks-told-trump-jr-to-convince-his-father-not-to-concede-if-he-lost/
Good morning Bludgers 🙂
I’ve been trying to pin it down but now I have it.
James Paterson reminds me of a weasel.