Newspoll breaks out of its long-established 53-47 to 54-46 rut by recording Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 54-46 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 38%, the Coalition down one to 34%, One Nation is up one to 10% and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull suffers a body blow on personal ratings, down two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 58%, and his lead on preferred prime minister all but disappears, now at 36-34 compared with 41-33 last time. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 53%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1625. Full report from The Australian.
UPDATE: The poll also finds Julie Bishop clearly favoured over Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party, by 40% to 27%. Peter Dutton on 11%, being most favoured by One Nation voters on 24%.
With The Democrat Winning In Alabama Republican Calls Grow For Roy Moore To Drop Out
Republicans have seen the polling, and with Democrat Doug Jones leading the Alabama Senate race, Senators like Pat Toomey (PA) are calling for Moore to drop out of the race.
The same party that backed Trump after he admitted to sexually assaulting women on tape is not less than a year later turn their back on Moore because of what he did.
If Moore loses, the Republican agenda is dead in the Senate. It is the polling not the sexual assault of underage girls that are driving the calls for Roy Moore to drop out.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/12/democrat-winning-alabama-republican-calls-grow-roy-moore-drop.html
Ex-intelligence officials claim Trump is being manipulated by Putin: ‘It’s either naiveté, ignorance or fear’
Two former top U.S. intelligence officials said on Sunday they fear President Donald Trump is being manipulated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, after Trump said he believed Putin was sincere in denying Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
Former CIA Director John Brennan and ex-National Intelligence Director James Clapper both said Trump was mishandling Moscow ties even as a special counsel investigates possible collusion between Trump’s campaign team and Russia.
“I think Mr. Trump is, for whatever reason, either intimidated by Mr. Putin, afraid of what he could do, or what might come out as a result of these investigations… It’s either naiveté, ignorance or fear in terms of what Mr. Trump is doing vis-à-vis the Russians,” Brennan said in an appearance with Clapper on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Clapper added that foreign leaders who roll out the red carpet for Trump are able to manipulate Trump.
“I do think both the Chinese and the Russians think they can play him,” Clapper said.
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/ex-intelligence-officials-claim-trump-is-being-manipulated-by-putin-its-either-naivete-ignorance-or-fear/
Julie Bishop looks smug, Malcolm can smell something bad
Thanks Phoenix,
” ‘It’s either naiveté, ignorance or fear” I would think all three.
Also two other set pieces for this government to navigate before the end of the year: MEFO – mid year budget update, and the Carbon emissions update.
Due to improved company profits , the budget update may not be to bad, it will depend on how much this is offset by poor wage growth and company tax avoidance.
Re Bennelong by-election timing, presumably the government will delay it until February next year. Then Alexander can sort out his renunciation and official acknowledgment by Christmas, then nominate in January.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mental-health-service-calls-for-plan-to-deal-with-samesex-marriage-survey-damage-20171112-gzjla3.html
Former Young Liberals President @Simon_Breheny tells @BreakfastNews it’s now inevitable that @TurnbullMalcolm will be replaced as PM. #newspoll #auspol
That is, Simon Breheny now employed by The IPA
sprocket_
The IPA. The real bosses of the Liberal Party.
Morning all
As per PhoenixR link. ie Clapper believes China and Russia think they can manipulate and play Trump.
I would say that they know they can, Cos they have been succeeding at it for ages!!
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/privatisation-gravy-train-rolls-on/
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I’m a little late this morning after sleeping heavily after yesterday’s big tractor restoration effort.
The Australian’s David Crowe writes that voters have swung further toward Labor while giving Bill Shorten a dramatic boost as preferred Prime Minister. Google.
/national-affairs/newspoll-misery-for-malcolm-turnbull-in-horror-poll-slump/news-story/3abf4f7975381d5c9707ec23fc666e6c
Katharine Murphy has her say on the Newspoll results.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/13/malcolm-turnbull-suffers-five-point-drop-in-newspoll-better-pm-rating
Michelle Grattan and the “sweeping new setback” delivered to Turnbull with this Newspoll.
https://theconversation.com/labor-increases-newspoll-lead-to-55-45-as-shorten-moves-within-striking-distance-as-better-pm-87322
Peter Hartcher says that Turnbull is making preparations for a minority government.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/all-hands-on-deck-as-malcolm-turnbull-prepares-for-minority-rule-20171112-gzjuau.html
LaTrobe Uni vice-chancellor Tony Walker writes that Turnbull is fighting for his political survival. He wonders what Peter Cosgrove is thinking.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-is-now-fighting-for-his-political-survival-20171110-gzin0h.html
Given the Newspoll results and Turnbull’s threat to unilaterally refer some ALP MPs to the High Court Labor may well go nuclear says Adam Gartrell.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-threatens-nuclear-retaliation-if-pm-refers-opposition-mps-to-high-court-20171112-gzjq61.html
Richo says Turnbull is sinking with no lifeline in sight! He finishes the column with “Turnbull is being buffeted adrift on a cruel sea. The sitting of the parliament on November 27 is far more likely to throw him a concrete slab than a lifeline.” Google.
/opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-sinking-with-no-lifeline-in-sight/news-story/45d28436647d58309a8be709a6c572ed
Interfaith Reverend Stephanie Horwick wonders if Turnbull will use the greatest privilege a PM has and that is to raise himself above party politics and make decisions in the public interest and for the greater good.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/will-malcolm-turnbull-exercise-the-greatest-privilege-he-has-as-pm-20171111-gzji9m.html
Laura Tingle wonders if voters will hit the mute button. Google.
/news/bennelong-and-minority-government-will-voters-hit-the-mute-button-20171112-gzjou3
Peter Martin looks at what the Canadian pull-out of the TPP will mean. It’s probably good news.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/its-the-trans-pacific-partnership-with-fewer-bad-bits-20171112-gzjo48.html
Section 2 . . .
Bob Katter has said that the crossbench will unite to push for a royal commission into the banks, now that Liberal MP John Alexander has resigned.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/11/12/bob-katter-says-the-crossbench-will-vote-for-a-royal-commission-on-banks_a_23274424/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
Former senior Telstra project manager Dermot Daley provides a concise history of how Australia’s digital future was repeatedly undermined. It’s a national disgrace really.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-good-the-bad-and-the-unsatisfactory-how-the-worst-nbn-was-done,10920
Ross Gittins explains why economists are giving up on smaller government.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/economists-are-giving-up-on-smaller-government-20171111-gzjcau.html
Of course the very conservative Henry Ergas things otherwise! Google.
/opinion/fat-public-sector-eating-us-alive-public-sector-waste-is-legion-and-politicians-perpetuate-it/news-story/be11b7fe65367db46792d7547b1bbf8b
Jess Irvine goes to why these record low interest rates can’t last.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-record-low-interest-rates-cant-last-20171111-gzjf5a.html
The worst fears of mental health providers about effects of the same-sex marriage survey have been wildly exceeded, new figures show. I’m sure Lyle Shelton will offer them prayers!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mental-health-service-calls-for-plan-to-deal-with-samesex-marriage-survey-damage-20171112-gzjla3.html
Paying for things by waving a smart phone or other device is poised to take off in the coming years, as consumers are offered new features enticing them to shift to mobile payments, MasterCard predicts.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/australia-ripe-for-smart-phone-payments-growth-mastercard-20171110-gzipvj.html
WestConnex boss Dennis Cliche has been forced to admit he falsely claimed that NSW Chief Scientist Mary O’Kane had praised the motorway’s planned exhaust ventilation stacks after she warned him that the comments called into question her integrity and independence.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/remarks-by-westconnex-chief-dennis-cliche-undermined-nsw-chief-scientist-20171112-gzjpff.html
Judith Ireland wonders what would happen if Australia has voted NO in the SSM survey.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/what-happens-if-australia-votes-no-in-the-postal-survey-20171108-gzhdxr.html
Simon Benson tells us how a conservative-backed gay marriage bill enshrining wide-reaching shield laws will be taken to the Coalition party room. Google.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/conservative-libs-to-offer-new-gay-marriage-bill/news-story/be94b1f9a0b5f454f9a42c761f3b5535
Section 3 . . .
We shouldn’t have to endorse a bill that enshrines in law new and different ways for some groups to discriminate against us.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/12/we-fought-for-marriage-and-equality-lets-not-sacrifice-one-for-the-other
Dean Smith tells us why the government must act and pass his SSM legislation in the likely event of a final YES vote. Google.
/opinion/columnists/first-the-marriage-postal-vote-now-for-the-legislation-20171112-gzjk6s
Anna Patty writes about the changing face of trades unions.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/the-changing-face-of-trade-unions-20171004-gyu8ay.html
The federal budget is built on the back of impossibly large tax increases that won’t survive the coming election, a new report has warned.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/expect-tax-cuts-soon-says-deloitte-access-budget-monitor-20171112-gzjmac.html
The government could fund its company tax cuts by dumping dividend imputation in favour of a dividend discount, say academics concerned about how Australia will afford to lower its corporate rate to 25pc. That would be a big blow to self-funded retirees. Google.
/news/cut-imputation-to-fund-company-tax-cut-academics-20171109-gzhw15
Greg Jericho begins this article by saying, “t says something about how capitalism works within our political system that in the week in which the Paradise Papers revealed the ways companies use tax havens and complex accounting methods to avoid paying tax, the government has again been pushing its case for a cut in the company tax rate.”.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/nov/12/company-tax-cuts-wont-solve-anything-getting-them-to-pay-up-might
Goldman Sachs will be paid $16.5 million as financial adviser to the NSW government on the sale of 51 per cent of the $16.8 billion WestConnex motorway.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/investment-bank-goldman-sachs-reaps-165-million-for-11-months-westconnex-work-20171112-gzjrx1.html
Two top former US intelligence officials said Sunday that President Donald Trump is being “played” by President Vladimir Putin on Russia’s interference in the 2016 election and accused him of being susceptible to foreign leaders who stroke his ego.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-is-being-played-by-vladimir-putin-say-exus-intel-officials-say-20171112-gzjwcd.html
Trump’s all over the place over it.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/11/12/donald-trump-believes-russia-election/
There really is a special quality to NSW local government!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/unexpected-byelection-challenge-could-send-more-voters-to-polls-20171111-gzjaua.html
Section 4 . . .
The cost of readying just one of the alternative facilities for refugees on Manus Island was once described by the Australian Border Force as “fairly minimal”, but the centre has ended up costing taxpayers $8.1 million. Nice work Potatohead!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/manus-island-facility-upgrade-cost-81m-for-24-days-work-20171112-gzjj0x.html
Twelve months in the making, a small fortune in consultant’s fees and countless “cascade sessions” and leadership principles workshops Michelle Guthrie’s Transformation Project will be unveiled tomorrow.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/13/abc-restructure-biggest-shake-up-in-broadcasters-history-to-be-revealed
In a move towards a digital emphasis radio, a stand-alone department since 1932, will become “audio” and television, a department since 1956, will become “video”.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/11/13/radio-tv-out-digital-first-abc/
More developers may pull the plug on huge apartment projects in Melbourne’s CBD after the central bank warned that investment in residential property had peaked earlier than expected.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/more-developers-to-pull-plug-on-cbd-apartments-warns-analyst-20171106-gzfy4l.html
Theresa May’s position is unsustainable, yet she still can’t see it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/12/tories-theresa-may-unsustainable-paralysis
A new survey of 94,706 Commonwealth Bank customers asked whether “our kids have the skills they need for tomorrow?” – half the respondents said yes, the other half no.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/one-in-two-australians-fear-young-people-are-not-equipped-for-jobs-of-the-future-20171109-gzijbn.html
Can old media’s most famous empires survive the internet onslaught?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/can-old-medias-most-famous-empires-survive-the-internet-onslaught-20171111-gzjhgg.html
Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner
David Rowe’s contribution today certainly has been supported by the Newspoll result.
Jim Pavlidis with our stagnant wages problem.
Matt Golding goes ahead to Wednesday’s SSM survey result announcement.
Matt David and Mesma’s aspiration for the PM job.
Paul Zanetti does one for his employer.
Judy Horacek and Manus.
Jon Kudelka – And the High Court will so hold.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/7ef0fb45d1caa7b03a808dc7e88c1da3
They’d rather keep a child molester in the Capitol’: Conservative Jen Rubin blisters GOP’s thirst for power
During an MSNBC panel discussion on the Republican response to accusations against Alabama candidate Roy Moore over sexually abusing teen girls in the late ’70s, conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin said GOP “tribal” loyalty is compelling some voters to approve of putting a “child molester” in the Senate.
“That’s the mentality of things that are going on,” an animated Rubin began. “You have a Republican Party that’s devolved into tribalism. Whatever they have to do: lie, cover up, violate their own oaths because the tribe is everything. That majority is more important than keeping a child molester out of the Capitol.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/theyd-rather-keep-a-child-molester-in-the-capitol-conservative-jen-rubin-blisters-gops-thirst-for-power/
JR – I won’t read Hartcher. Malcayman has at least a dozen of her MPs probably ineligible to sit in Parliament. Gillard didn’t. That issue will have to be addressed, sooner rather than later.
I think the smart move for the Libs is to back Turnbull until the new year (let him take the heat). Then dump him for Julie and rush off to the polls before she gets a chance to govern. They won’t win, but might save quite a few seats.
The smart move for Malcolm is to find a matter of principle (maybe even an early election) and go out with his head held high. But, of course, he can’t put a foot right, so he won’t.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/free-speech-fears-after-book-critical-of-china-is-pulled-from-publication-20171112-gzjiyr.html
‘Michelle Grattan and the “sweeping new setback” delivered to Turnbull with this Newspoll’
Setback? Did Turnbull show previous signs of recovery/improvement? Death throes, more like it.
Lizzie
I still can’t get my head around the Darwin port being sold to Chinese interests.
victoria
I agree. From this distance it looked almost treasonable.
Id wager selling public assets to dodgy companies and the like is more treasonous than most the MPs and Senators to so far run foul of S44 for dual nationality
Would an act that seeks to override state anti discrimination legislating even be constitutional? All of those matters apart from marriage that the Christian extremists are proposing to legislate (education, bakeries etc) would seem to fall under state jurisdiction?
*anti-discrimination legislation
I smell poor people
45-55 is “OK” but 44-56 would be far more entertaining , nothing like a mass outbreak of bed wetting and exploding heads.
Looks like the Conservatives are proferring a new SSM bill which incorporates protections for people with an alternative view regarding SSM. Article is well worth a read.
“A conservative-backed same-sex marriage bill enshrining wide-reaching shield laws for celebrants, businesses, educators, charities and parents opposed to gay marriage will be taken to the Coalition partyroom in a looming showdown over freedom of speech and religious protections.
The 34-page bill, obtained by The Australian and to be released today by conservative Victorian Liberal senator James Paterson, would override state and territory anti-discrimination and freedom-of-speech laws to extend protections beyond religious affiliation to anyone who holds a “conscientious belief” in traditional marriage”.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/conservative-libs-to-offer-new-gay-marriage-bill/news-story/be94b1f9a0b5f454f9a42c761f3b5535
‘ for people with an alternative view…’
Oh, jolly. So we’re going for laws which cater for niche groups now?
It’s sad that ‘freedom of speech’ is being debauched from its proper meaning – the ability to criticise those in power without fear of retribution – to justifying behaviour which, when I was young, would have been dismissed as not just rude, but repugnant.
We haven’t lost ‘freedom of speech’. We’re not in danger of losing it. We are in danger of allowing unacceptable, anti social behaviour to substitute for it.
zoomster @ #179 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 8:16 am
and which override states and territories
AM’s reporting of the citizenship crisis:
– General report featuring 80/20 ratio of government/opposition spokespeople.
– Sabra interviews Christopher
– Vox pop in Bennelong 100% behind poor John Alexander.
– Constitutional expert telling us that s44 should be changed.
Then we had an interview with James Paterson on SSM.
Newspoll mentioned in passing to Pyne
SSM is itself an example of free speech. The reactionaries claim falsely that the extension of free speech represents the opposite. What is actually happening is the repression of free speech by clerical, phobic and anti-social reactionaries is being bought to an end. Vive La Liberté!
Since when did “religious freedom” mean “F*ck off you poofs, I am not going to bake your wedding cake!”?
….brought to an end…. time for a new computer…keyboard is shot…
briefly @ #73 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 11:12 pm
Nice to be on the same page on this!
briefly @ #184 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 8:32 am
Windhover spoke eloquently last night (I think) about the common decency afforded the Sky Fairy believers, not to mention their tax jollies, and it ill behoves them to resort to deny others that which they themselves insist on.
Here’s the Guardian’s take on the Patterson Bill.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/13/rival-same-sex-marriage-bill-to-trigger-coalition-showdown?CMP=soc_568
The Greens are now on Turnbull’s Christmas list.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-13/citizenship-crisis-greens-back-move-to-refer-labor-to-high-court/9143080?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=%3a8935&user_id=5182c12444070f746a4d7c6c69aaee6ccc5092b7d2cd7ea2eceb21bb7d016b85&WT.tsrc=email&WT.mc_id=Email%7c%7c8935&utm_content=ABCNewsmail_topstories_articlelink
When, foolishly, I googled the article about “conservative libs to offer new gay marriage bill” I was confounded (really :?:) to see a photograph of one Senator James Patterson.
This worthy has the appearance of a homely, down home, gentleman about town. Not a sign of horns, tail or cloven hoof. 😈
I would like to offer James (I feel that I know him) my hearty best wishes in his search for a vocation that would suit his talents.
I am not sure that he has any talents, but, as has been said in all the best romances, “still waters run deep”.
There ❗ Eureka, I have it. Deep water – submarine – a truly suitable candidate to go down with the ship, undoubtedly renamed “Lollipop” 🚢 and captained by the reincarnation of Cap’n Bligh of yore.
Issue rum 🍹 to all hands Mr. Christian and break out the cutlasses 🗡 as we prepare to repel boarders from Newspoll intent on fornicating in the rigging in preparation of the long term plan to give each of us a turn in the barrel.
Wonderful day in Newcastle – not a migraine in sight and all’s well in this, the best of all possible worlds.
I have run out of steam (BS) and will now prepare to meet the Australian Federal Police 👮 should some of those eager servants of democracy appear in my neighborhood.
Watching TV news this morning Di Natale said he would refer LNP and Labor pollies if there are any questions about a members right to sit in Parliament. So the Greens will refer BOTH sides. The LNP would have more to fear than the ALP, would be my guess.
The article in the Australian on the conservative draft Bill is worth reading it will be released today.
Also I wonder if we will see a ‘Bill Shorten should be concerned ‘ article or morphing into a ‘Shorten could be under threat ‘.
With the logic that as Turnbull is terminal he will be replaced by a new popular Liberal leader and so the Labor party will look again at replacing Jim’s. Far fetched but possible (the article I mean).
Good Morning
Sam Dastyari on fire in his doorstep this morning just now on Marriage Equality.
Labor Greens are showing how you do things on this issue and its no surprise to me they are being rewarded with support.
This will be revealed in full extent on tonight’s Four Corners as the right is trying to entrench the hate into the DNA of the Liberal Party.
Malcolm in a muddle is going to be a must watch for progressive voters to see the real Liberal party and why Turnbull has sold out. He knows what party he leads even if most Australians don’t. Its a pity a lot won’t watch hopefully however the message will get out about how extreme the Liberal party is becoming and why they see no problem with joining their name to the likes of Cory Bernadi and Pauline Hanson.
If Malcolm refers Labor members, but not his own in trouble, the libs will have trouble getting a 40% TPP at the next election. It will be pitchforks time out in the electorate. Indeed, we will be quite close to a dictatorship. It’s so dumb that Malcolm just might do it.
…the LOL bit from Paterson …
‘I fear we will see some Australians seek to impose their values on others’
It amazes me how anyone under 25 can be against SSM.
sonar @ #191 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 7:53 am
DiNatale can only refer lower house Labor members of course, as the numbers don’t add up to refer LNP ones. Tricky Dicky