Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Bill Shorten almost matches Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, as the Coalition cops its worst Newspoll result since February.

Newspoll breaks out of its long-established 53-47 to 54-46 rut by recording Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 54-46 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 38%, the Coalition down one to 34%, One Nation is up one to 10% and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull suffers a body blow on personal ratings, down two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 58%, and his lead on preferred prime minister all but disappears, now at 36-34 compared with 41-33 last time. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 53%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1625. Full report from The Australian.

UPDATE: The poll also finds Julie Bishop clearly favoured over Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party, by 40% to 27%. Peter Dutton on 11%, being most favoured by One Nation voters on 24%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 18
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  1. Sohar says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:47 pm
    Mal is probably leaking against Julie right at this moment.
    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Preferred LIB Leader: Turnbull 27 Bishop 40 Dutton 11 #auspol

    Desperate times indeed.

  2. The Greens are highly unlikely to win government or opposition in the next House of Representatives election, where it will mostly (outside a few relative good areas for the Greens) be fought between the ALP and the Coalition (depriving the Greens of campaign oxygen), so it is in the Greens` interest to have a separate half-Senate election where they will get more oxygen.

  3. steve davis says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:45 pm
    Bennelong must be too close to call on those Newspoll figures?

    hmmmm….big swing needed…big swing possible too….

  4. Tom the first and best says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:54 pm
    The Greens are highly unlikely to win government or opposition in the next House of Representatives election

    Masterly understatement there, T.

  5. I wonder if the Greens overarching goal is to pull a swiftie on Turnbull and use the motion to refer the Labor MPs to the HC to also refer those LNP MPs whose citizenship statuses are in doubt?

    Hmm… that might be a little too clever for the Greens.

  6. Bishop is everything (in Lib terms) that Dutton isn’t…. female; untouched by the squalor of immigration/border issues; unloved by Abbott; from the West and not the East; almost a clean-skin when it comes to domestic politics. Not a notorious RW fool, merely a very cold political heart.

  7. briefly @ #100 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:52 pm

    Sohar says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:47 pm
    Mal is probably leaking against Julie right at this moment.
    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Preferred LIB Leader: Turnbull 27 Bishop 40 Dutton 11 #auspol

    Desperate times indeed.

    I wonder how that will hold up when they have to actually listen to her.

  8. Latest release of ARs C+
    Version 0.8.10 Released Nov. 12, 2017 175.9 KiB Works with Firefox for Android 48.0 and later, Firefox 48.0 and later
    – Fix issue with colorbox CSS styles
    – Make the ‘Quote’ button available to anonymous users

    I have no idea what the colourbox CSS styles bit is about.

    A very good night all. 💤💤💤

  9. briefly @ #106 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 9:03 pm

    Bishop is everything (in Lib terms) that Dutton isn’t…. female; untouched by the squalor of immigration/border issues; unloved by Abbott; from the West and not the East; almost a clean-skin when it comes to domestic politics. Not a notorious RW fool, merely a very cold political heart.

    You forgot an absolute friggen lightweight. Look at what happened when she had the finance portfolio.

  10. Let’s not forget that Canning still swung 6.5% against the Coalition, despite Turnbull having just taken over and being enormously popular. Imagine what the swing would’ve been if Abbott had still been PM. Well I reckon we just might get to see that version of reality in Bennelong.

  11. grimace says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 12:06 am
    briefly @ #106 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 9:03 pm

    Bishop is everything (in Lib terms) that Dutton isn’t…. female; untouched by the squalor of immigration/border issues; unloved by Abbott; from the West and not the East; almost a clean-skin when it comes to domestic politics. Not a notorious RW fool, merely a very cold political heart.
    You forgot an absolute friggen lightweight. Look at what happened when she had the finance portfolio.

    🙂

    I was trying to find points of difference with Dutton. Dullness they have in common 🙂

  12. The Greens are just trying to find their way into the main game given they are mostly irrelevant these days, and most esp with Di Natale as leader. They need a spokesperson with more cut through.

  13. KayJay @ #109 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 11:06 pm

    Latest release of ARs C+
    Version 0.8.10 Released Nov. 12, 2017 175.9 KiB Works with Firefox for Android 48.0 and later, Firefox 48.0 and later
    – Fix issue with colorbox CSS styles
    – Make the ‘Quote’ button available to anonymous users

    And also:

    – Allow anonymous users to be individually blocked
    – Fix an issue when the UI would no longer autoscroll to the comments area when quoting a post
    – Remove ‘Edit’ button now that the feature has been disabled

  14. JimmyD says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 12:09 am
    Let’s not forget that Canning still swung 6.5% against the Coalition, despite Turnbull having just taken over and being enormously popular. Imagine what the swing would’ve been if Abbott had still been PM. Well I reckon we just might get to see that version of reality in Bennelong.

    If I’m not mistaken, Bennelong has a high proportion of ethnic Chinese and Korean voters. I wonder what they will make of the chaos in Parliament and the division in LNP. My guess is they will be totally dismayed.

    It’s also very likely they will take a very dim view of LNP flirtation with Hanson.

    https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/19024/1/2011004524.pdf

    Maybe this will raise the chances for Labor.

  15. AR

    I thank you for your work in making this blog so easy to use.

    If Brown Bear could be bothered with anything that interests me, I am fairly sure (not certain) that he would thank you as well.

    Go well, mon ami.

    😍😍😍

  16. The result in Bennelong is going to be influenced by coming events in the Parliament in a way that would be rare in by-elections. If it appears the government is really going to implode because of, say, infighting over SSM or the leadership, then Alexander will be in serious trouble.

    The primary expectation of voters is that governments can keep their act together. The moment it seems that order, predictability and reliability are in doubt, the incumbent is finished. Newspoll suggests we have reached that point already.

  17. Briefly
    It’s also very likely they will take a very dim view of LNP flirtation with Hanson.

    A perverse benefit of the Qld election?

  18. The dream come true for me – I doubt that I’m alone – would be for Abbott to challenge on Monday-week and lose heavily. How much fun!!!

  19. JimmyD says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 12:29 am
    Briefly
    It’s also very likely they will take a very dim view of LNP flirtation with Hanson.
    A perverse benefit of the Qld election?

    No doubt, JimmyD.

    Disorder, xenophobia, uncertainty….totally toxic combo in the Chinese community.

  20. JimmyD says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 12:31 am
    Briefly – I believe Bennelong is the second most ethnically diverse seat held by the LNP, after Reid.

    They must be feeling vulnerable…

  21. PVO wrote a comment piece the other week wondering what personal beliefs Bishop might bring to the Prime Ministership.

    Answer was nobody knows. As foreign minister all she does is master her brief and recite the key lines.

    Her views on economic policy for instance are unknown. She was late admitting she voted yes on the ME survey.

    As others have noted she was a major fail as shadow treasurer. It I have a vague recollection that she was thought by some to have done OK in education under Howard.

    And I still can’t believe that the Libs would elect a woman from WA as leader, no matter how desperate the situation.

    And dont ever forget she was once partnered by sometime WA state MP and then senator Ross Lightfoot. Having that on the CV really does raise questions of her judgment.

  22. The RW of the LNP are going to have to chose between the unity and stability of their government and their bigotry. Gotta be short odds on their bigotry winning.

  23. Regarding JA and Bennelong.

    It would be interesting if the close of nominations was approaching and he hadn’t received his conformation of renunciation.

    What would the Libs do? 🙂

  24. If I had to hazard a guess, I’d imagine that quite a few of the Govt backbenchers think they can pull a bait-and-switch like they did with Truffles. “Current leader’s on the nose; OK, let’s roll him and make sure the new one knows where he stands – the punters’ll buy it!”

    Problem is twofold:

    1. Contrary to cynics’ opinions, most people have more functional pattern recognition than a goldfish with ADHD;

    2. They don’t have another plausible, popular replacement waiting. A brief look down the list of “potential Liberal leaders” shows the following:

    – Madam Mesothelioma. Besides the fact that she has girl cooties (and is thus unacceptable to the dinosaurs), she has the charisma of a dead fish….and several expenses scandals waiting to go;
    – Dutton? He’s got a real chance of losing his own electorate next election – not to mention that the more people know him, the less they like him;
    – Porter? More photogenic than Dutton, but facing the same problems (Pearce is sitting on a margin of ~3%…).
    – Frydenburg? Plausible….sort of. Besides being responsible for the hot mess that is AEMO, Frydenburg has no credibility – we can thank Jay Weatherill for that!
    – Morriscum. No….the Treasury portfolio has shown him for what he is, an empty suit brimming with faux-Christian platitudes and insincere grins. Oh, and zero mastery of his brief.
    – The poodle (Pyne)? ….No, just no.
    – Hunt? He’s got the reverse Midas touch, and it shows.

    That’s it. That’s the whole damn lot of them. Half a smidge of talent between them, and less than that in decency, goodness or honour.

    I wonder what Menzies is thinking, looking at “his” Party?

  25. 55-45 – wow! will Mal still be PM by the end of the week/month? His only saviour will be a lack of alternative talent acceptable to the RWNJs.

    The anti-SSM mob might figure a coup will allow them to put forward an unacceptable piece of SSM legislation so they can claim labor and the greens voted it down. I don’t think even Turnbull would stoop that low, but Dutton, Abbott or Hastie would revel in it.

    Labor is going to have fun when parliament resumes. I can see them making hay of the fact that Bishop would be the LNPs best choice, but the party won’t do it because of sexism and hard RWNJ-bery.

  26. Yes Barney, I’ve been wondering about that too. It seems the Labor MPs waited a month or two to receive confirmation of their renunciation. If they do end up getting disqualified by the HC at Turnbull’s behest then it’s hard to see how John Alexander’s new case would be any different, given nominations for the by-election close after iirc just ten days. Either the government has arranged some priority processing with the UK or Bennalong could head to a second by-election that the Libs would surely lose…

  27. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 12:55 am
    Regarding JA and Bennelong.

    It would be interesting if the close of nominations was approaching and he hadn’t received his conformation of renunciation.

    Where is “confirmation” of renunciation required? Surely its is a unilateral act that requires no counter-measure to take effect, providing it is executed in a relevant form…

  28. Roger Miller says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 1:21 am
    Who will be Julie’s deputy when she becomes PM? Dutton? Morrison? Abbott? Hastie? Andrews?

    Dutton would have his hand up, for sure. Abbott…nah….would be a fox in the henhouse.

  29. Confessions says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 10:11 pm
    briefly:

    How do you expect Dean Smith’s bill will be dealt with if not to remove Turnbull as leader?

    I think the LNP will have a free-for-all on SSM. The RW cannot move against Turnbull unless they wish for collective suicide…and any alternative leader other than Abbott (who could not be under consideration) would in any case enable the SSM bill or bills to go to the Parliament.

    They are stuck with Turnbull for the time being, I reckon…

  30. The coalition could do anything. At this point they are entirely incapable of making a rational decision, so no one can say what they might do.

  31. briefly @ #129 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 9:29 pm

    Barney in Go Dau says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 12:55 am
    Regarding JA and Bennelong.

    It would be interesting if the close of nominations was approaching and he hadn’t received his conformation of renunciation.

    Where is “confirmation” of renunciation required? Surely its is a unilateral act that requires no counter-measure to take effect, providing it is executed in a relevant form…

    That’s a question for the HC to deceide.

    But considering the Government says it has advice that a candidate in such a position is in breach of the Constitution what would they decide?

    By allowing Alexander to stand, they would be knowingly, endorsing someone who they believe is ineligible.

  32. I’d fancy that the Libs would probably lose Bennalong at the by-election without JA’s personal vote, so I guess the most likely outcome is Turnbull drops the partisan HC referral threat, John Alexander nominates anyway and the MSM gloss over the hypocrisy.

  33. Don’t forget that Labor’s candidate for Bennelong is Jason Yat-Sen Li.

    His candidature must add a few % to Labor’s primary vote …

  34. Good morning Mr Turnbull, some good news and some bad news.

    On the good side, the ABC newsroom have lost their subscription to the SmearStralian, and are therfore not reportingthe latest dreadful NewsPoll result showing your PMship to be terminal.

    On the bad side, your pal Denis Shanahan is in peak handwringing mode preparing the SmearStralian sheep for your boning.

    “Malcolm Turnbull has lost key support in cabinet as fears grow he will allow the citizenship crisis to drag the government to an election early next year which would wipe out the Coalition.

    There is no challenge underway against the Prime Minister but last Monday’s cabinet meeting, during which ministers confronted Mr Turnbull and overturned his plan to have the citizenship details of MPs’ families released, has radically changed ­attitudes to his leadership.

    Senior ministers have lost faith in Mr Turnbull’s judgment over the fallout from the High Court decision on MPs’ eligibility, which has led to two by-elections and speculation a general election for the House of Representatives could be called in February rather than an expected series of by-­elections.

    The seminal change in ministerial attitudes comes as the latest Newspoll shows Mr Turnbull’s dominance over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has ended.

    Julie Bishop is well ahead of Mr Turnbull as preferred Liberal ­leader, and both the deputy Liberal leader and Peter Dutton are ahead of Mr Turnbull among the “lost Liberal legions” who have turned to One Nation since the last election.

    While Mr Turnbull’s supporters have blamed Tony Abbott for destabilising the Liberal Party, and there have been calls for his return as leader, the reality of the Liberals’ partyroom, which decides the leadership, is that Mr Abbott does not have the support for a challenge and the top contenders are Ms Bishop and Mr Dutton, as the conservative candidate.

    Mr Abbott would likely be ­included in a cabinet without Mr Turnbull and is considered a chance to be opposition leader again, but is unlikely to have the support to be returned as prime minister.”

  35. I note that the Liberals’ language always hints at Labor MPs’ criminality, as in “Bill Shorten has got to stop running a protection racket for his own dual citizens”.

    I find this insulting (as it is meant to be). People such as Truffles, of course, are pure as the driven snow as they manipulate their millions to their advanatage.

  36. Sprocket – Say what you like about the GG, reporters like Shanahan do know a lot about Liberal internal politics. Looks like the rest of Cabinet basically want Trimble to burn his credibility to a scintilla fighting off a new election before they give him the chop. Jeez, Malcy, how did it come to this?
    Malcolm is giving Bill Shorten a master-class in how to NOT govern. Oh, Malcolm, if only you had gone to an early election after becoming leader, it would now be oh so different!

  37. Especially as someone pointed out, a protection racket is more along the lines of “nice place you got here, be a shame if something… happened to it” than simply acting to protect something

  38. Democrat Doug Jones Is Now Leading Roy Moore In The Alabama Senate Race

    A new poll by JMC Analytics and Polling shows Republican Roy Moore’s support collapsing as Democrat Doug Jones has taken a 46%-42% lead in the Alabama Senate special election.

    Roy Moore was a candidate with problems before the allegations about his illegal taste for underage girls surfaced.

    Roy Moore has minus (-22) drop in support among men and women. Moore has lost 16 of support with men, and six points of support among women. His support among evangelicals has dropped by eight points, and Jones’ support among non-evangelicals has increased by eight points. Undecided voters give Jones a 20 point edge, 53%-33%. The allegation that Roy Moore has sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl, believe it or not, is not the only reason for the shift in his support, but does make voters less likely to support him among those who care about the allegations by a margin of 38%-33%. It is the group of voters who say the allegation makes no difference to them who are hurting Moore, as they only support him 51%-39%.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/12/democrat-doug-jones-leading-roy-moore-alabama-senate-race.html

  39. Peter Hartcher’s article
    Turnbull prepares for minority rule
    Minority government in most democracies is normal, and in most of Australia’s states.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/all-hands-on-deck-as-malcolm-turnbull-prepares-for-minority-rule-20171112-gzjuau.html?btis

    Is pretty good. Denying there is a crisis quoting Ann Twomey

    “There’s no underlying constitutional principle involved. If you comply with the law, there’s not a problem.”

    He also says Turnbull or actually the coalition, is likely to survive in government, this point is valid, pointing to Labor’s minority government but ignores the fact that the government is a shambles.

  40. Trump Is So Out Of It That The White House Staff Is Not Allowed To Read His Tweets

    Trump is so deranged that White House Chief of Staff John Kelly does not all the people working in the White House to read the President’s tweets.

    The LA Times reported:

    “Someone, I read the other day, said we all just react to the tweets,” said Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, speaking with a group of reporters after a presidential news conference Sunday in Vietnam. “We don’t. I don’t. I don’t allow the staff to. We know what we’re doing.

    “Believe it or not, I do not follow the tweets,” Kelly said.

    “I find out about them,” he continued. “But for our purposes, my purpose, is we make sure the president is briefed up on what he’s about to do.”

    Trump shows his ignorance daily on his Twitter account. The chief of staff should be reading his tweets because then they would know if anything they are telling Trump is sinking in. If Kelly did instruct the White House staff not to read Trump’s tweets, it means that this president is an impotent figurehead who doesn’t know what is going on as his administration is functioning around him.

    The White House ignores the rantings of the President on Twitter, which demonstrates that America has become a rudderless ship under Donald Trump.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/12/trump-white-house-staff-allowed-read-tweets.html

  41. Hmm. So the Coalition are preparing to send the Bishop lamb to the electoral slaughter?

    Then they’ll get Toned Abs back after the election to rally the rump!?!

    This lot can’t buy a clue!

    I hope the Wilderness Years last as long for them as they do for the Repugs in America. That is, a long, long time. That is, until they get it and some respect for the little guy. Which is what they are sadly lacking in their cold cold hearts.

    As exemplified by Madam Asbestos herself.

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