Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Bill Shorten almost matches Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, as the Coalition cops its worst Newspoll result since February.

Newspoll breaks out of its long-established 53-47 to 54-46 rut by recording Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 54-46 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 38%, the Coalition down one to 34%, One Nation is up one to 10% and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull suffers a body blow on personal ratings, down two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 58%, and his lead on preferred prime minister all but disappears, now at 36-34 compared with 41-33 last time. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 53%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1625. Full report from The Australian.

UPDATE: The poll also finds Julie Bishop clearly favoured over Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party, by 40% to 27%. Peter Dutton on 11%, being most favoured by One Nation voters on 24%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Smith won’t be the only one keen to get his bill passed asap.

    He and plenty of others won’t owe the loons a damn thing if the plebifarce comes in at the 60% it looks like it will come in at. He’ll move it, and it will pass easily in the Senate.

    Now Trumble being the spineless nematode he is might want to bend over backwards for his captors, but I’m sure more than enough Libs in the Reps are equally as sick to death of the crap. So if there’s any bullshit on it being enabled by Trumble so that Smith’s already passed in the Senate Bill isn’t presented to the house quickly then Shorten or another ALP member will move SSO to bring it on.

    A few Libs will have to cross the floor to do so, but if it’s that or let the loons keep stringing them along well they will. Entsch for one looks like he’s well past being fucked around on this any more and I doubt he’d be on his own.

  2. It will be interesting to see how the ALP approaches the debate on the SSM Bill. On the one hand, they will want to keep the temperature of the debate as low as possible, out of respect for the LGBTI community. But they might also be happy to see the debate strung out over a few weeks, as that would probably see coalition members going for each others’ throats. In normal circumstances I would have thought there was a chance that the topic might encourage a certain moderation even in the coalition, since it looks as if an awful lot of coalition members will have electorates with a strong Yes vote; but the way things are at the moment, I can’t see how the underlying acrimony between the conservatives and the rest will be able to be kept under control.

  3. Michael @ #52 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 6:39 pm

    It will be interesting to see how the ALP approaches the debate on the SSM Bill. On the one hand, they will want to keep the temperature of the debate as low as possible, out of respect for the LGBTI community. But they might also be happy to see the debate strung out over a few weeks, as that would probably see coalition members going for each others’ throats. In normal circumstances I would have thought there was a chance that the topic might encourage a certain moderation even in the coalition, since it looks as if an awful lot of coalition members will have electorates with a strong Yes vote; but the way things are at the moment, I can’t see how the underlying acrimony between the conservatives and the rest will be able to be kept under control.

    The debate isn’t the problem, the main issue once legislation hits the floor are any amendments.

    That’s where the work will be, making sure they don’t get a footing with the borderline supporters and potentially derail passage.

  4. Labor should refuse to speak on the bill except to note the People’s wishes and to recommend the bill to the House for a vote at every opportunity.

  5. Malcom sees the error of his ways, calls for SSM vote ASAP, supports the Yes case as always being the “ right thing to do “… LNP RWN go into apoplexy , the rest is history.

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  7. Is there an update on the sweep on when Turnbull will go?

    Dan G is running it and from memory Rex is the likely winner. But there may be some updates.

  8. Labor has already said they won’t be mucking around with any additional ‘protections’ (sic) in the Smith bill. That’s as much as the loons are going to be allowed to salvage. They’d be quite confident that more than enough Libs feel the same way.

    The only one who has a problem is Trumble. He either stands up to his (admittedly worthless) word and brings the Smith bill to the house (and gives the loons another confected excuse to hate him), or he caves and tries to buy off the loons again with more concessions (that the ALP and others won’t cop) and finds his not so far right flank breaking off and voting with the socialists. He’s screwed either way really.

  9. Barney in Go Dau @ 10.44 pm

    You are right on that, but my guess is that if there’s the strong Yes vote which the polls are suggesting, the conservative amendments won’t have much chance. There’s not much support for No outside the coalition, and a fair few coalition members will be people who don’t have strong views one way or the other, but whose main priority is to get the issue off the agenda, which will be best guaranteed by passing the Smith Bill unchanged. I also suspect that a lot of marginal seat holders are thoroughly exasperated by the way in which Mr Abbott, Mr Andrews and Senator Abetz are jeopardising the careers of MPs on small margins by their constant destabilising tactics, and will welcome the opportunity to give those three a sharp poke in the eye.

  10. I think the RWNJs will scupper any legislation on SSM or delay it to the never never knowing that Turnbull is so weak that he could be challenged at any time and has no authority or majority.This will be another Turnbull fiasco.

  11. steve davis @ #59 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:51 pm

    Is there an update on the sweep on when Turnbull will go?

    Ask and ye shall receive:

    Douglas And Milo – After result of ME survey, before legislation passed
    Rex Douglas – Xmas 2017
    Booleanbach – after 30 consecutive bad polls
    C@t – after 30 Newspolls
    cupidstunt – 3 months before election
    Frednk – April 13 2019
    Chinda63 – after the next election/Turnbull resignation

  12. ratsak @ 10.55 pm

    I suspect whether Mr Turnbull will want to bring the Smith Bill to the House will prove to be moot. Senator Smith has said he will introduce it next Thursday, which suggests it will first come on for debate in the Senate, and, if passed, will make its way to the House via a message from the Senate. Once it’s through the Senate, it’s hard to see how it could be politically feasible for it to be not brought on in the House pretty quickly.

  13. Welp. I think that’s Turnbull done.

    Honestly, I doubt he’ll even make it to that 30th bad Newspoll. As soon as the all by-elections are sorted, he is done for.

  14. DG
    Thank you very much.Only 7 left in it,with 2 predictions coming up on the timeline.Rex should have a separate sweep on when Shorten should be replaced.

  15. The idea that a baker might be denied his religious freedom by having to make a cake for a same sex marriage is trumped up nonsense.

    First of all marriage is a legal ceremony, not a religious ceremony even if it can have religious significance.

    Secondly, if the baker’s fictitious omnipotent friend doesn’t abide same sex marriage then for the baker the baked cake is not for a real marriage anyway. After all if you regard same sex marriage as definitionally impossible (like GG, apparently) then all the baker could regard himself as doing is baking a cake for a party that pretends to be a marriage.

    If the rest of the country has to respect the genuineness of the baker’s belief in the fictitious omnipotent friend to the point of giving tax breaks etc in support (and common decency and common sense says we do) then surely the baker can happily bake the cake for what the baker “knows” is a fake wedding.

    Going along with other people’s fictions to the extent they cause no actual harm is what tolerance is all about. Something the baker would do well to remember.

  16. the ME bill will be another disaster for Turnbull.

    The RW nutters will do everything and anything to stall it, underlining again how powerless he is.

    Someone like Porter has a big enough ego to think he can turn 55-45 around and there will be lots of nervous backbenchers susceptible to being wooed.

  17. The opponents of SSM in the LNP may be tempted to try to derail the Bill. But the LNP cannot afford to allow them to succeed. That would be a terminal defeat for Turnbull and his cabinet. Strangely enough, the retention of government by the LNP will depend on the passage of SSM.

    Their very weakness is the only thing holding them together.

    On the other hand, as bemused points out, this assumes the LNP are capable of behaving logically. This almost certifies they will stuff it all up.

  18. It’s interesting that the Gs are collaborating with the LNP, hoping to forestall the ultimate decay and demise of this most ineffectual and incompetent government. The thing the Gs fear most is a unified Labor government with a strong majority. They will work with the LNP to prevent that.

  19. There is no way he can recover by the 30th Newspoll.He will die politically by that statement no doubt, if and when he makes it.

  20. Michael,

    Which is my point. It will be through the Senate by the end of the week most likely. The numbers aren’t there to filibuster it even if they wanted to.

    So Trumble can’t just ignore it. He might get through Monday the 27th saying it needs to go to the party room or something, but after that he’ll either need to get it on the paper himself, or someone will bring it on via an SSO if it looks like he’s playing for time.

    However it happens it will come to the Reps. However it happens it will damage Trumble.

  21. briefly @ #74 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:16 pm

    It’s interesting that the Gs are collaborating with the LNP, hoping to forestall the ultimate decay and demise of this most ineffectual and incompetent government. The thing the Gs fear most is a unified Labor government with a strong majority. They will work with the LNP to prevent that.

    I would interested in seeing opinion on the impact of a sole half Senate election as opposed to the normal joint election with the Reps.

  22. Windhover @ 11.07

    There’s a need for a discussion on what “freedom of religion” even means. Neither “freedom of worship” nor “freedom of belief” is under threat from SSM. The No case seem to be trying to develop a broader concept, which in effect would legitimise any behaviour, any sort of discrimination, so long as it is supposedly anchored in religious belief. That’s vastly out of alignment with the way the law operates at present, and I can’t see that the community will buy it.

  23. If the Libs have an agenda its totally paralysed by the citizenship debacle.The country is like a ship without a rudder drifting politically aimless and I think the public are squarely blaming Turnbull.

  24. MR Rolex Goodenough was in the WA media today hinting that a bill to rival Dean Smith’s is ready to go.
    It has protections he says, most likely to allow people like him the freedom to be more bigoted.

  25. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:20 pm

    I would interested in seeing opinion on the impact of a sole half Senate election as opposed to the normal joint election with the Reps.

    A half-Senate election can’t be held until August 2018.

  26. ratsak @ 11.18pm

    My guess is that it will take a bit longer than you think to get through the Senate. It will be in the interests of the Yes case to smoke out all the arguments and potential amendments there, so that they are ready for the debate in the House. If they try to gag it through the Senate, that would give ammunition to the conservatives in the House, whereas if the issues have been thoroughly canvassed in the Senate, delaying tactics in the House will be more readily seen for what they are.

  27. briefly @ #82 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:23 pm

    Barney in Go Dau says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:20 pm

    I would interested in seeing opinion on the impact of a sole half Senate election as opposed to the normal joint election with the Reps.

    A half-Senate election can’t be held until August 2018.

    I know that’s why I asked the question.

    Would it be in the Greens’ interest to get this Parliament through to August or wreck and potentially bring on an election in the Reps?

  28. Michael

    “There’s a need for a discussion on what “freedom of religion” even means. Neither “freedom of worship” nor “freedom of belief” is under threat from SSM. The No case seem to be trying to develop a broader concept, which in effect would legitimise any behaviour, any sort of discrimination, so long as it is supposedly anchored in religious belief. That’s vastly out of alignment with the way the law operates at present, and I can’t see that the community will buy it.”
    ———

    Conservative Governments in Germany, UK and NZ legislated for same sex marriage without ANY increased discriminations against gays (under the guise of religious repression masquerading as “religious freedom”).

    But it seems, yet again, the major parties in Australia show themselves as incapable of overcoming their entrenched homophobia.

    As far as the ALP is concerned, it is probably a result of the application of its major principle of mediocraty, cynically expressed as “don’t let perfection get in the way of the “good”.

  29. The MSM and CPG will be in mourning tonight as their man is spiralling down and down almost out for the count.Nothing that they are trying to do to resurrect him is working either.Happy days ahead.

  30. Michael says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:26 pm

    I think you’re right. The Senate will not want to foreclose debate on what will be a milestone legal reform. Everyone will want to have their say, as indeed they should. The Parliament will be fulfilling one of its most important functions and I reckon the mood will be joyous on the Yes side.

  31. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:29 pm

    Would it be in the Greens’ interest to get this Parliament through to August or wreck and potentially bring on an election in the Reps?

    It’s the interest of the Gs now and at all times to thwart Labor. They will support the unsupportable if that helps frustrate Labor.

  32. briefly @ #75 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 10:16 pm

    It’s interesting that the Gs are collaborating with the LNP, hoping to forestall the ultimate decay and demise of this most ineffectual and incompetent government. The thing the Gs fear most is a unified Labor government with a strong majority. They will work with the LNP to prevent that.

    I blame Di Natale. He has form when it comes to siding with a conservative government if it means damaging Labor. The Greens need a leader who’s at least willing to stop short of doing a deal with the devil for quick political gain (and not even much of that, as I assume most actual Greens voters would not approve of his antics).

  33. Mal is probably leaking against Julie right at this moment.
    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Preferred LIB Leader: Turnbull 27 Bishop 40 Dutton 11 #auspol

  34. If the LNP primary is 34, the Lib internal must be 30 or less in many places. This is disastrous for them. Their PV is being consumed by their own siblings. This split could mean the final result is similar nationally to the experience in WA, where the Labor result was the best records since the Great War.

    Liberalism is in serious trouble. Excellent. It is what they deserve.

  35. a r says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:44 pm
    briefly @ #75 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 10:16 pm

    It’s interesting that the Gs are collaborating with the LNP, hoping to forestall the ultimate decay and demise of this most ineffectual and incompetent government. The thing the Gs fear most is a unified Labor government with a strong majority. They will work with the LNP to prevent that.

    I blame Di Natale. He has form when it comes to siding with a conservative government if it means damaging Labor. The Greens need a leader who’s at least willing to stop short of doing a deal with the devil for quick political gain (and not even much of that, as I assume most actual Greens voters would not approve of his antics).

    Di Natali is keeping the faith. They have all seen their interests being served by trying to claw votes away from Labor while offering strategic succour to the LNP.

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