Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings deteriorate still further amid an otherwise stable result from Newspoll.

Newspoll retains its comatose form in its latest fortnightly result, with Labor steady on 37%, the Coalition down a point to 35%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 9%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on 54-46. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have worsened, down one on approval to 31% and up three on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 32% and up one to 56%, with Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 41-33. Poll courtesy of The Australian; numbers helpfully related by GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

568 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 12
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  2. vic

    Rudy Giuliani would be good as he looks to have really turned on Trump now after being a big supporter.

    Obviously Giuliani was expecting a celebrity gravy train job and didn’t get one.

  3. victoria @ #195 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 7:57 am

    Dan G

    You have been keeping notes. Lol! Sean Hannity and Rudy Giuliani should be included.

    Giuliani is a good one to add to the list. Was he on Mensch’s list? Hannity is only an accessory after the fact, as is FoxNews as a whole.

    Anyway, how does my “public domain” list compare with “inside information” Mensch’s? Are there more names/organisations on her list that I should add to mine, or should she add a few of mine to her list?

  4. Ctar1/Dan G

    Talk was that Guiliani made a deal and turned into state witness. Who knows. His influence in FBI should not go unpunished

  5. laughtong

    Were you given a reason why your ‘bit’ wasn’t connected initially?

    18 Months sounds like they’re saying ‘after we connect every other easy site’ that we intend to connect Australia wide.

  7. victoria

    PhoenixRed.

    Indeed. Hence why this talk of Brexit being part of the picture!

    ********************

    Brexit – Trump campaign AND CambridgeAnalytica ……… is the key to the British/American situation ……..and Parscale with his 90-100 Million $ payoff with links to Kushner Don Jr ….. ‘they’ won this for Trump ….

  8. I think this article was posted after BK’s Dawn Patrol. Apologies if I am wrong

    More than 100 Turnbull government decisions are vulnerable to legal challenge as a result of Barnaby Joyce and Fiona Nash’s dual citizenship status, with lawyers concluding there is a high likelihood the work the pair has done over the last year will end up before the courts.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/more-than-100-joyce-and-nash-decisions-at-risk-from-legal-challenge-qcs-20171029-gzafux.html

  10. The rhythm of the electoral cycle will soon start to acquire a life of its own. In coming months, as the next election gets closer in time than last one, voters will begin to eye the prospect of changing the government and sentiment for such a change will begin to condense, to solidify. Everything the Government do or don’t do will increasingly be construed around the approaching election…and around the prospect of a thumping Labor win. There is every chance this will become self-fulfilling, as the LNP begin to cast around, desperate for some kind of fix-up. The more desperate they become, the more certain will be their defeat.

  15. phoenixRED @ #198 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 8:03 am

    2 others that Dan forgot – Farage stooge – Andy Wigmore ……….. and my #1 asshole apart from the Trump Crime Family – Brad Parscale with his links to CambridgeAnalytica

    Parscale is a good one to add to the list.

    Wigmore though is more tied up with Brexit than Trump. If he has any connection to Trump it’s only peripherally through Farage.

    Yes, I know that there is a connection between Trump and Brexit, however they’re still not the same thing. The connection between them is similar to the connection between Operation Barbarossa and Pearl Harbour. Different events in a bigger picture.

  16. vic – Guliani is certainly an ar#ehole who loves the limelight.

    If they grab him he’ll squeal very loudly and give evidence that casts Trump in the worst light as he can come up with.

    Kuschner would be fun as well in a different way – ‘all hands to the life boats’!

  17. In the GG today that interview with Barnaby ‘Joyce blasts libs: Nats kept you out of opposition ‘

    The reporter Jamie Walker depicts the interview as ’emotional ‘, was this after Joyce had been campaigning?

  18. ‘Don’t trust authority’ was not a US gift to the world –
    Australia had it built in from the start of European settlement.

  19. Ctar1

    “Rudy Giuliani would be good as he looks to have really turned on Trump now after being a big supporter.”

    He was passed over for AG.

  21. poroti – What ever is the standard factory set gets plenty of turnover.

    You shouldn’t have much problem getting very decent ones at a good price. A full alignment (front and rear) is worth getting done and lots of places will do it for free when you have all four replaced, so ask.

  22. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    Yep it is the key to the whole Imbroglio.

    ************************

    I am not sure if it can ever be proved but there still seems a school of thought that those *states that Trump surprisingly won – in spite of all pre- and exit polling- and were the focus of CambridgeAnalytica voter ‘manipulations’ – are what won the election for Trump ( * Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania etc etc )

  24. “The rhythm of the electoral cycle will soon start to acquire a life of its own.”

    The next election is “due” in July 2019 but given that the terms of half the Senators elected in 2016 expire 30/6/2019, in practice that means by mid May.

    In past years with this sort of cycle (first half year election), the early election speculation would start on return from the Summer break the year before. If the polls don’t show sustained improvement for the Government, I think Malcolm (or any successor) will hang on to March-May 2019.

    “…as the LNP begin to cast around, desperate for some kind of fix-up. The more desperate they become, the more certain will be their defeat.”

    They’ll look for a crisis to exploit, even if they have to make it up.

  26. No sign of Cash after she flew out of Canberra?

    I suppose there’s bugger all chance of her being dislodged from her Senate spot.

    The lack of any thing approaching ethics in her is quite amazing, although not uncommon in conservative politicians world wide.

  27. booleanbach
    ‘Don’t trust authority’ was not a US gift to the world –
    Australia had it built in from the start of European settlement.

    This is a totally romanticised version of what has actually happened. In fact, our institutions have embedded in them very conservative values. The Crown is entrenched in the Constitution. First Peoples continue to experience institutionalised discrimination, in every sense renewing their dispossession and violent alienation. Religious bodies – especially the White ones – are granted special status and exemptions. Dual citizens are regarded as inherently inferior to the Fully-White sole citizen. Workers and their organs are treated as if they are automatically dubious. Civil protest is likened to criminal behaviour. Sexism and its partner, patriarchy, remain deeply ingrained in the culture.

    Authority is muscled-up in this country.

  29. CTar1 @ #205 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 11:09 am

    laughtong

    Were you given a reason why your ‘bit’ wasn’t connected initially?

    18 Months sounds like they’re saying ‘after we connect every other easy site’ that we intend to connect Australia wide.

    We are part of a pocket that was not provisioned when the rest of the area was. No explanation, no reason. What the local federal members office found out was that we need what they are calling micro-nodes. As I said, back here just in time for the end of the 18 months switch over period. If they try to cut off our ADSL there will be many many complaints. Our ADSL is not great but it is usable. Rob Mitchell’s office was also suggesting fixed wireless in the meantime, but we had re-contracted with Telstra in January

  30. The similarity of the current political situation in the UK, US and Australia at the moment is striking.

    Each with a conservative government in chaos and each with an opposition composed of a competent crew but also each without an inspiring standout leader.

  31. CT

    Yes. As a result. Policies are the focus not a charismatic “messiah” leader.

    All to the good as the polling in all three shows

  32. Kim (he of the missile launches and atomic bomb tests) shows off his more sensitive side by visiting a cosmetics factory. But no hair net or face mask for him.

    DPRK cosmetics factory.jpg

  34. guytaur @ #234 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 10:51 am

    CT

    Yes. As a result. Policies are the focus not a charismatic “messiah” leader.

    All to the good as the polling in all three shows

    In the U.S. at least that’s at least somewhat mistaken. People aren’t flocking to the Democrats because of Democratic policies (the main exception to this being young voters and Bernie Sanders), they’re doing it because they’re appalled by what Trump is doing.

    Political parties seem notoriously bad at differentiating between voters who genuinely support their policies and voters who are simply protesting the incumbent. They tend to count every vote as being from the former category, and pretend that the latter doesn’t exist. Which only ensures that the pendulum will very quickly swing back to the other side.

  35. BiGD @11:22 “Hopefully Labor decides to recognise Palestine at their next federal conference.”

    The next National Conference is July 2018.

    Labor can’t help the Palestinians from Opposition. I’d prefer that they leave this sort of thing until they are in Government.

  36. My parents live in Bassendean, WA (10k’s from the Perth CBD) and changed over to FTTN NBN late last week.

    The changeover period resulted in them being without internet for three hours, which was as promised, and they’ve experienced consistent ~24mbps (on a 25/5 connection) and they’ve not experienced any issues with congestion or unexpected outages.

  37. Cash is still trying to work out what to say in her RoI with the Federal Police. She’s in trouble (or, at least, her staff member is) whichever way she jumps.

  38. laughtong

    what they are calling micro-nodes.

    Sounds like ‘Fibre to the Curb’. The ‘node’ (at small box that is put underground) with a fibre connection to the main network providing two connection outlets that are plugged into the existing copper wire to your house.

    Not full fibre but much better/quicker/reliable than the ‘fibre to the Node’ (big box ground level requiring power/air conditioning and providing lots of final connection outlets) from what I understand of it.

  39. Cat …I did see that. I would like to write to her and congratulate her…I’m concerned not to intrude on her privacy too…she’s just 17

  41. CTar1 @ #230 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 11:48 am

    The similarity of the current political situation in the UK, US and Australia at the moment is striking.

    Each with a conservative government in chaos and each with an opposition composed of a competent crew but also each without an inspiring standout leader.

    You can’t validly say that about Jeremy Corbyn. He’s already changed the global Neoliberal agenda and narrative.

  43. briefly @ #239 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 12:01 pm

    Cat …I did see that. I would like to write to her and congratulate her…I’m concerned not to intrude on her privacy too…she’s just 17

    I suggest a motion put through the branch and approved by the appropriate federal electorate committee to send a letter on official letterhead congratulating her on her principled stand and maybe offering her a meeting with her closest federal Labor MP?

  44. Within hours of having the queries over his potential dual nationality cleared by the High Court, and reinstated as minister for Resources and northern Australia, Canavan was telling the Murdoch media that Adani and a new coal generator in Queensland were his highest and most immediate priorities.

    And the man labelled the “minister for Adani” by environmental activists wants both projects to be supported by the $5 billion Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility.

    “I want to get a coal-fired power station in north Queensland (and there’s no reason) why that cannot be done through the NAIF,” he told The Courier-Mail.
    …
    Actually, there may be a whole heap of reasons why the NAIF might not want to support either project.

    The Adani mine carries huge risks – financial, environmental, and reputation – and a new coal generator near Townsville is not needed and would likely become a multi-billion dollar white elephant.

    Even the Australian Energy Council, a pro fossil fuel lobby group that represents the country’s coal generation companies and major utilities, thinks it’s a dumb idea.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/minister-for-adani-is-back-and-pushing-for-mega-coal-mine-and-new-coal-generator-17654/

  47. A R

    and pretend that the latter doesn’t exist.

    Yep. It’s a challenge to any political party to work out how to ‘capture’ these voters for a second time without pis#ing off your other voters that are also in two groups – the “rusted on’s” and those who are convinced by some, at least, of your policies (and require follow through or you can kiss them goodbye when they next get the chance to vote).

  48. A consequence of ON withdrawing from New England is that the Shooters/fishers/farmers are likely to take support from the Nationals (i.e. Barnaby) as they have done in three state by-elections.

    How much support is the question. However Barnaby may have to spend a fair bit of time fending them off.

  50. briefly @ #239 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 9:01 am

    Cat …I did see that. I would like to write to her and congratulate her…I’m concerned not to intrude on her privacy too…she’s just 17

    I’m not sure what motivated her to go public (grant an interview), if it was my child I’d support their decision to return/refuse the award, though would not allow them to participate in media interviews.

    The ME debate has been and will continue to be heated and nasty, and I’ve got concerns for the welfare of the young lady now that she has publicly involved herself in such a toxic debate. ME opponents have shown they have absolutely no qualms about getting personal and nasty with supporters of ME, and nobody here needs a rundown of how Limited News and the shock jocks treat any perceived ideological enemy: without regard to whether that person is otherwise not a public figure and without considering whether their treatment of that person is fair, reasonable or proportionate in the context of the debate.

    I too give her my congratulations for taking such a principled stance, and wish her well in coping with the shit storm that is about to be unleashed at her.

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