The Courier-Mail reports that Annastacia Palaszczuk will today fire the starter’s gun on a four-week Queensland state election campaign, with November 25 to be the big day. So what better time to launch the Poll Bludger’s biggest and best ever election guide, featuring detailed overviews of all 93 electorates, a poll tracker feature and a comprehensive summary of the whole shebang. All of which is at your fingertips, provided you don’t use Internet Explorer (on which note: if any of you coding experts out there can tell me why said browser doesn’t want to know about by querySelector functions, I’ll be much obliged).
Im ready to call it already, LNP will form a minority government
I wouldn’t be. Labor is slightly ahead at the moment and there’s fewer Labor seats in danger from PHON (or preferences) than Coalition.
It will be closely fought. I definitely don’t see a Coalition majority government , but most other things are on the table.
Thanks William, a very well-written summary.
William
Pumicestone will need updating with the disendorsing of sitting Labor Rick Williams.
I suppose no matter what way it goes, Laborliblite or the full LNP we’ll all still be hung with Adani.
Oh Mr Bowe you’ve done it again, thank you.
“Introducing the Poll Bludger’s comprehensive guide to a Queensland election…”
This is a fantastic resource, the reason I subscribe to Crikey and your effort on this much appreciated.
You certainly can’t call it yet. Annastacia and Labor faced a greater electoral challenge in 2015 and came out on top.
The ALP has done positive things for this state, such as investment in renewables, and a reversal to the LNP is hardly ideal.
Number every square and put the LNP last! I think I’d stand by that even with ON in the mix – having some erratic and undisciplined members is probably better than having a mob who will toe the LNP line come hell or high water.
(One Nation) “ended preference speculation on Sunday, confirming earlier rumours it would put sitting MPs last, with a few notable exceptions.
Those would be Katter’s Australian Party MPs Rob Katter and Shane Knuth, controversial Labor MP Jo-Ann Miller and the LNP’s Mark Robinson.”
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/nicholls-can-t-be-premier-with-one-nation-campbell-newman-says-20171029-p4ywp7.html
The punters appear to be massively overestimating PHON.
Labor are ahead on the QLD BludgerTrack 51.7, and the trend is upwards.
Yet the bookies put Liberals ahead, if only just.
Why?
The only possible reason I can think of, is they are assuming the ON will do well, and neither party could govern in a majority, and ON will side with the LNP.
Firstly, they are assuming it will end up like 1998, where ON got 22.68% of the statewide vote, despite there being 10 seats they didn’t even put anyone forward. ON is not polling that well, BludgerTrack says that if they put candidates in all seats, they are currently on 16.5%, just ahead of the 13.5% they were polling in WA. Of course, in WA they got less than 5% on the day.
ON will win about 3 seats on current polling, or 0-1 if the same thing that happened in WA happens in Qld)
And most importantly, neither party could enter a coalition with ON It would be the end of whichever party tried. It would be a confidence and supply. Neither party will even really trust ON numbers for supply. Both parties will assume that some or all of the ON members will become independents during the next electoral cycle. Who wins government with confidence from ON will be whoever is closer to having enough seats, not based on policy similarity. If you needed the support of 3 out of 3 ON, that is much more risky than needing 1 vote from them, when they eventually go independent.
Easiest decision for me in Pumicestone is to put Rick Williams last and then work up from there.
davidwh
Always respected your balanced opinions on politics. What’s your view of public attitude to Tim Nicholls? To me from down here in Victoria he’s always seemed a little contrived. Bright, but not all that in touch. If so, will marginal seat voters in areas like your home patch buy him, or stick with A.?
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/high-court-ruling-sparks-changing-climate-in-queensland-s-senate-ranks-20171027-p4ywop.html
High Court ruling sparks changing climate in Queensland’s Senate ranks
By Cameron Atfield & Tony Moore
28 October 2017 – 02:33am
The Australian Parliament’s most high-profile climate change sceptic appears set to be replaced in the Senate by a man who once made his living warning of the dangers of climate change.
One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts was one of five MPs declared ineligible to stand for Parliament under section 44 of the constitution in a High Court decision on Friday, as he had never formally renounced his British citizenship.
The court also ruled against fellow former Queensland senator Larissa Waters, who resigned in July upon discovering her Canadian dual citizenship, but ruled in favour of LNP senator Matt Canavan, who sits in the Nationals’ party room in Canberra.
Former Democrats leader Andrew Bartlett appears certain to replace Ms Waters in the Senate, while Sunshine Coast man Fraser Anning is set to replace Mr Roberts based on a countback of votes cast in the 2016 federal election.
Mr Anning, who once ran the Sunshine Coast solar installation business Pacific Solar and Heating, once warned of the dangers of climate change in a Sunshine Coast Seniors newspaper advertorial.
Sorry, last comment was meant for the federal thread, but these articles are Qld election related.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/queensland-poll-stress-test-future-renewables-australia-22708/
Queensland poll to be stress test for future of renewables in Australia
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/dumped-one-nation-senator-malcolm-roberts-faces-uphill-battle-for-state-seat-20171029-gzaalt.html
Dumped One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts faces uphill battle for state seat
http://nofibs.com.au/pt-1-of-qld-election-blog-for-2017-election-chatter-qldvotes-qldpol-qldaah/
Pt 1 of Qld election blog for 2017
Al Pat i think there are a good many people who have lost faith in politics generally so don’t have a good feel this time. I think Labor will hold on narrowly simply because the LNP haven’t come up with good reasons to elect them.
Agree re Nicholls
A lot of ground talk here in Hervey Bay says ON will defeat the sitting LNP candidate. However the ON statement of putting sitting member last could see ALP get in if they stay ahead of ON in a tight 3 way contest. Neighbouring Maryborough and Bundaberg seats could be lost to ALP if ON poll well enough and return LNP MP’s. The Maryborough ALP MP is seen as the best of the three sitting MP’s and might survive.
“querySelector” issue could be that Internet Explorer isn’t supported.
Have a read of:
https://stackoverflow.com/questions/18404362/queryselectorall-alternative-for-ie
Thanks Zoidlord — the bit at the end might just be what I’m after. Then again, no one’s complained, so I guess nobody uses MSIE any more.
William thanks for the guide, a great resource!
On the election, do many people really think PHON will hold the balance of power? On past history, if PHON do hold enough seats to matter, surely the largest major party will simply tempt enough PHONeys to defect to gain a majority. Given the motivations and backgrounds of PHON candidates, it should not be that hard.