BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

Yet another quiet week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregation trend.

I don’t have full numbers yet from the ReachTEL poll, so the only addition to BludgerTrack this week is your usual weekly Essential Research result. This has made next to no difference on voting intention, and none at all on the seat projection. There were also no new numbers for the leadership trends this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

444 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  2. grimace @ #394 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 9:13 pm

    I’ll throw in a very optomistic 56-44.

    Realistically we’ll see 53-47 or 54-46, my reasoning being that Essential has performed very poorly for Labor (52-48).

    Yeah Essential has got me spooked too. I can’t figure out wth people are voting for when they plump for the Coalition!?!

  4. daretotread
    daretotread

    The demand for a currency always matches supply.
    The supply is a function of debt issued and nothing else.

    The US is not in any way dependent on external demand for its currency. The contrary case is true – other economies rely on the supply of USD for their financial balancing.

    As much as 75% of world trade may be settled in USD. But world exports do not account for more than about 30% of the global economy and this share is declining. By far, most of global economic output and exchange occurs in non-dollars.

    You are determined to hold on to the belief that the USD is in trouble. It’s not. You should relinquish this false belief. This is Russian propaganda.

  8. RM,
    Indeed.
    The main story is abuse of power, but it seems quite a few were keen to be abused. Doesn’t fill you with confidence in the system or the seperation of power.

  16. C@t,
    If it was real it would have been even worse last week. The samples either side must have been similar to each other for the result to remain the same the 2nd time the dud sample was still being counted.

  22. One thought that has occurred to me is that, if people care to compare the pair before they decide who to vote for, they will be able to see that Labor had a hung parliament but was still able to be a fully functioning government that passed over 300 pieces of legislation.

    Turnbull, with a 1 seat majority, has barely any legislative achievements to his credit and he, and Tony Abbott, have spent most of their time just unpicking what Labor did. Mostly to please Liberal Party organ grinders.

    So people may be thinking that Labor look the goods because they are giving the impression of actually having policies which address the problems we have as a society right now.

    That’s why I’m also not very worried how Barnaby Joyce goes in his By-election. If he wins big and it allows Turnbull to gloat, well, you’ve just got to think that he who laughs last, laughs best and Turnbull’s sweetest little victory of all will be a sugar hit and, after the next full federal election, Barnaby Joyce will just be a nationals Opposition MP, unable to bring so much as a pork sausage to the electorate. 🙂

  23. Was interesting point Tony Burke made today.

    All it takes is a “vested interest” to challenge Barnyards decisions or legislation that was passed on his vote.

    Now i wonder if the Union movement may be up for that?

    An action by one employee about to lose their penalty rates (they have a direct interest in the matter), backed by the ACTU, or some lawyer acting pro-bono??

    All you would need is one precedent to set in motion even more kaos than is evident now.

    Anyone more legaly versed than i with comment??

  25. “If he wins big and it allows Turnbull to gloat, ”

    But his ministerial decisions and legislation passed on his vote while he WAS an ineligible Kiwi infiltrator would still be open to challenge??

  31. Question,
    I enjoyed watching ‘The Block’ finale. The couple who most closely resembled the Coalition in manner and attitude, very nearly received negative equity for all their hard work, only ending up just scraping over the line in the end-a bit like Malcolm last year.

    On the other hand, the Little Aussie Battler couple, who everyone else looked down on, a bit like Labor, just about streeted the field except for the hot favourites to win, but that was okay because they weren’t nasty like the others.

    It gives me hope that Australians haven’t quite become as avaricious, self-centred and greedy as the Coalition would like to think.

  33. Oz headline now (still paywalled):

    PM sinks as crises take toll
    9:34PMDAVID CROWE
    Labor has held its gains over the Coalition in another grim poll for Malcolm Turnbull following the Joyce and Cash crises.

  37. C@tmomma @ #399 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 6:15 pm

    grimace @ #394 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 9:13 pm

    I’ll throw in a very optomistic 56-44.

    Realistically we’ll see 53-47 or 54-46, my reasoning being that Essential has performed very poorly for Labor (52-48).

    Yeah Essential has got me spooked too. I can’t figure out wth people are voting for when they plump for the Coalition!?!

    A little while ago someone here explained the polling movements when the numbers were otherwise stable, I forget who, probably William. Long story short, over time, it becomes increasingly statistically probable that an outlier result will happen. What is not normal, in the absence of some sort of statistical smoothing, is consistent numbers, i.e., a series of 53-47 results.

    I apologise in advance to whoever provided the explanation if I’ve butchered it.

  41. imacca @ #419 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 6:43 pm

    Was interesting point Tony Burke made today.

    All it takes is a “vested interest” to challenge Barnyards decisions or legislation that was passed on his vote.

    Now i wonder if the Union movement may be up for that?

    An action by one employee about to lose their penalty rates (they have a direct interest in the matter), backed by the ACTU, or some lawyer acting pro-bono??

    All you would need is one precedent to set in motion even more kaos than is evident now.

    Anyone more legaly versed than i with comment??

    In the event of a hung parliament, the speaker preserves the status quo. In the case of penalty rates, the status quo is people losing their penalty rates, because that was the FWC decision. Makes for a great attack ad though.

    Whoever challenges needs to be affected by the change to the status quo, some piece of legislation that would not have passed but for that one vote, keeping in mind that by convention the speaker will vote to maintain the status quo.

  42. The Speaker will do what he’s told by Turnbull, who will pass on what he was told by his party’s hard right wing. Conventions will be discarded as needed.

  43. 54 46, lnp dropped 1 on prinaries and bad news for both on net sats. No change to ppm. Check the australians front page then google

  44. adrian @ #350 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 7:09 pm

    ABC News has a ‘special report’ on a battle in WW1.

    Sometimes I think that the only history we’re interested in Australia these days is military history.

    I have a horse in this race.

    My grandfather, Ken Hamilton, lead a squadron in the 3rd Light Horse. He didn’t take part in the charge (which was 4th & 12th LHR), but did get the heel of his boot shot off by a German aircraft in the (successful) taking of the heights of Tel el Sabr to the NE of Beersheba – which allowed the last successful cavalry charge in history (so far) to take place. I still have the field glasses he used that day.

    He would speak of that campaign – unlike Gallipoli, from which he was evacuated with “trench fever” (probably rickettsiosis). It is a little weird to think that it was a century ago.

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