BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

Yet another quiet week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregation trend.

I don’t have full numbers yet from the ReachTEL poll, so the only addition to BludgerTrack this week is your usual weekly Essential Research result. This has made next to no difference on voting intention, and none at all on the seat projection. There were also no new numbers for the leadership trends this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

444 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. ratsack,

    Not fair, some wouldn’t get to sit through a question time.

    Maybe you swap each day of sitting, although I don’t think everyone would get a go?

    🙂

  2. Kezza:

    But Liberals and their media shills have a double standard when it comes to women. Conservative women are acceptable. Women of other political hues not so much. Just try to envisage Cash or JBishop subjected to the same standard of commentary that Gillard copped in her time as leader. No, I can’t see it either.

  3. ABC News has a ‘special report’ on a battle in WW1.

    Sometimes I think that the only history we’re interested in Australia these days is military history.

  5. [adrian
    ABC News has a ‘special report’ on a battle in WW1.

    Sometimes I think that the only history we’re interested in Australia these days is military history.]

    As everyone with first hand knowledge is dead now, it’s easier to present a version that suits your narrative.

  7. There is a new doco on ABC ‘celebrating’ the work of the people who are ‘keeping Australians safe’.

    Encouraged by the government, no doubt.

  12. You can sense an element of such sentimentality about Abbott, not just Trump.

    For Trump, the fixation on coal is less about energy than about white masculinity. And Trump is not alone in that motivation: Throughout the 20th century, white Americans have imagined the mountaineers and backwoodsmen of Appalachia as the ideal of the American man. If a West Virginia coal miner could fall on hard times, what chance did the rest of the nation’s men have?
    …
    This assumption is rooted in white supremacy — an ideology proved wrong by the mountaineers languishing in poverty. For the #MAGA crowd there’s a fundamental problem when manly roughneck coal miners are put out of work by liberal hippie tree-huggers. White and masculine, coal miners symbolize the 1950s society that Trump supporters long for — a time when white, heterosexual men dominated society. That makes coal the perfect fuel for the drive to “make America great again.”

  13. C@tmomma @ #303 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 5:59 pm

    sprocket_ @ #286 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 5:42 pm

    C@t

    Yes, Savva is in Turnbull’s camp. But appears to be getting less columns in the SmearStralian. Only noticed one this week

    Thanks, sprocket. Savva has been less of a presence on the Insiders couch as well recently.

    I also note, wrt to Insiders, that the Labor Opposition are getting more interview spots and those interviews by Barrie are less combative and more respectful.

    While I’m at it I also predict that our next federal election will be in February 2019. Turnbull will want to hang on as long as possible to the golden ring he is grasping for dear life and hoping the Kill Bill strategy will finally bite in the electorate.

    I don’t think he’ll give a hoot about Gladys Berejiklian having to face the people in NSW in March 2019.

    Speaking of our Glad…
    Has she figured out how to call an early election in a state with fixed terms? There was an ad featuring the premier on the propaganda channel for the NSW Liberals which looked suspiciously like an election ad. It better not have been funded by the taxpayers of NSW.
    Especially as the NSW libs are reported to be pretty close to broke.

  15. I understand that the Director of Newspoll has been kidnapped by masked men with Young Liberal stickers on their car.

  18. Zoomster – Malcolm doesn’t do war-gaming; he doesn’t do contingency planning. His only plan is that, if things go wrong, as they will, he will bullshit you some more. In many ways, he is a very simple mechanism. He was born for the Short Con. The Long Con is beyond his meagre talents.

  20. Confessions

    Rather than that it is about the “workers” having been screwed over for decades by neoliberal economics/Reaganomics/Thatcherism looking for someone, anyone!, offering hope of such screwing over ending.

  24. poroti:

    The transition to renewable energy isn’t an overnight fix, but Trump going back to coal is going to make it that much harder.

    The US is essentially farked.

  25. Barney in Go Dau @ #348 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 7:09 pm

    ratsack,

    Not fair, some wouldn’t get to sit through a question time.

    Maybe you swap each day of sitting, although I don’t think everyone would get a go?

    🙂

    You’re right Barney.

    I have a plan.

    Make every week a sitting week. And instead of just drawing a name out and a clean handover they can work up to a spill every Monday night. You know they’ll just love it.

    Each Tuesday morning they can have a swearing in and parade of noddies telling the media how the decision has been made and everyone now will come together for the good of the Party. Later on Wednesday the ex-PM will come out of hiding and promise no sniping.

    Wednesday gets off to a cracking start as the new PM once again ends the awarding of Knighthoods. The media swoon over this great new saviour of the country.

    Thursday starts off well enough but then the PM announces a new policy that has been thought up in the shower that morning. By lunch time it’s obvious the dud is going no where. The joyous faces on the right of the speaker yesterday are now studiously looking at the ceilings, their shoes or the phones. Everyone breathes a sigh of relief that they can get the fuck outta Canberra before everything turns completely to shit.

    Friday morning has front pages with stories of numbers being counted. Graphics of who’s voting for this week’s PM and who’s voting for next week’s.

    Saturday’s papers are full of senior ministers declaring the current PM has their full confidence.

    Newspoll comes out Sunday night.

    And the spill is called after an embarrassing QT.

    Rinse and repeat. The whole country going through that charade every week for 18 months could hardly be any less edifying than going through with the shitshow that is Brian Trumble PM for the same period.

  27. Lizzie,
    Well worth reading “1914, the year the world ended” by Paul Ham. A Sydney historian.

    I thought I was fairly well read, but this book is another look at a war that we are all familiar with. I was amazed at how his approach showed the war in a different light. I went on to read his book on the Vietnam war and again I went away with a diametrically different understanding of that war, and it was a war that was the background to my youth and I was startled to see how little I knew about it

  30. Davidwh

    I’m pretty sure CTar’s comment was said with a big dose of cynicism Kezza.

    For some you need to include pictures.

  32. daretotread
    Briefly

    Comment 154 and susequent

    d Are you seriously suggesting the US status as reserve currency is not under pressure?
    b Is there any suggestion that it is?
    d Obviously YES Briefly. Do just a little research for goodness sake. Three seconds of googling
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/11/the-us-dollar-may-be-at-risk-as-the-global-reserve-currency.html

    b Anyone can hold anything they like as a reserve. They can hold used truck tyres if they choose. They can hold Yuan, but because its convertibility is impaired, most economic agents do not hold many Yuan.
    d Yes Briefly that is the whole point. The world you knew in 1980 is changing. The whole REASON that China has offered to back the yuan with instantly convertible gold is to give it stature and security. It may not work but only a blind fool would not recognise that it is an issue for the US$

    d Do you not think that the mere fact that the agreement of the big gas producer and the manufacturer to exchange goods in yuan/gold will not have the effect of lowering demand for US currency?
    b This is irrelevant.
    d. No it is not. It is about demand for US$ in reserve.Obviously if 10% of trade is settled in things other than US$ (tyres, potatoes yean or doggy doo) there will be 10% less demand for US$. This is so obvious I should not even need to type it.

    b The Oil/Yuan/Gold coupon simply establishes a price for oil that is derived from the gold price. So what! Oil is already convertible to gold. This device illustrates the weak convertibility/liquidity of Yuan: oil suppliers will accept Yuan only if the Yuan are convertible into something else, in this case gold. Since gold is denominated for most purposes in USD, this device simply creates new arbitrage opportunities. It creates new trading instruments in Shanghai and HK. Big deal. It does not create a free and unlimited market for Yuan. On the contrary, it limits the appeal of Yuan to the amount of gold held. This is very retrograde.
    d You may or may not be right on this but I am inclined to trust more current economists that you.

    d You can argue about the size of the effect but not of the effect in itself. It seems pretty bloody obvious that demand would fall somewhere in the 5-10%region.
    b What matters is whether a currency is negotiable/exchangeable….whether the market is relatively liquid or illiquid. For all practical purposes, the USD market has unlimited liquidity. This is what determines Dollar-acceptability. “Demand” is no more measurable or mutable than “Supply”, which are both moderated by “Velocity”.
    d. This is old hat thinking Briefly. No currency has unlimited liquidity – it depends upon the acceptance of the world that the supplier is secure and stable. One obvious potential negative of the Trump regime is loss of confidence in the US as a nation

    d It is a big what if as yet, but what if Saudi *as well as Iran) decided to trade with China, and BRICS nations in yuan not US$. This certainly would affect demand for $US
    b So what! This will change nothing much. Most of the world’s economic activity is already settled in non-Dollars.
    d. Chapter and verse Briefly. According to Wiki 85% of transactions use $US

    dNow as the the effect of this fall in demand, that is where I am open to persuasion ie I am not at all sure what would happen.
    b Dollar use for the settlement of trade transactions makes no difference to dollars actually in circulation. This number is determined by the amount of dollar-denominated debt issued.
    d Yes obviously Briefly, but if there is less demand for debt there is less money avaialble for the US gov to borrow

    b More widely, we should all hope that the attempt by China to base its currency on gold at all will fail. The use of gold as a monetary unit is highly distortionary. The hoarding of gold is deflationary. It is depression-inducing.
    d. Maybe Briefly but I suspect that this is 1970 though bubble. Worked OK for Nixon but I am not sure it is a permanent situation.

  33. Aqua

    Speaking of our Glad…

    A couple of days ago I saw her get asked about the power station she managed the sale of for a million being valued at $73m as an asset on the buyers audited books.

    She replied she wasn’t embarrassed ‘Every sale reduced the State debt’ ….

  34. BiDG

    ‘As everyone with first hand knowledge is dead now, it’s easier to present a version that suits your narrative.’

    Defence has over 30,000 PTSD cases on its books.

  35. Dovey @ #374 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 8:07 pm

    Lizzie,
    Well worth reading “1914, the year the world ended” by Paul Ham. A Sydney historian.

    I thought I was fairly well read, but this book is another look at a war that we are all familiar with. I was amazed at how his approach showed the war in a different light. I went on to read his book on the Vietnam war and again I went away with a diametrically different understanding of that war, and it was a war that was the background to my youth and I was startled to see how little I knew about it

    Yes agree – Paul Ham does an excellent job in his books.

  36. MH-370 found millions of kilometers off course.

    “UFO hunters claim ‘alien mothership’ spotted on Mars in NASA images”
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/technology/news/article.cfm?c_id=5&objectid=11937915

    When asked for comment ex Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, said,

    “I have never been convinced MH-370 was where the experts said it was. And I told the Chinese Premier as such in 2014. Some of the ‘experts’ we used are rumoured to have been part-time climate scientists. This really says it all, in my opinion. I blame Labor and Malcolm Turnbull, in that order.”

  39. BTW, that ROC guy who withdrew the assertion that the Union had refused to give up the documents, saying he confused them with something else.

    What was the magistrate who issued the warrant told? Seems a bit weak that they would issue warrants on the basis of Rupert rag innuendo.

  40. Dropping in to wait for Newspoll.

    Turnbull will either get a dead cat bounce in sympathy for the way his week turned to crap, or the numbers won’t change from last time. I honestly don’t think the numbers will get better for Labor because I don’t get the feeling the electorate are quite at the stage of emphatically endorsing them.

    Too many still want Tony or some other Conservative to roll Malcolm, or they are parking their votes with One Nation.

  41. No 22 losing NewsPoll no doubt, but I have no idea what the numbers might be.

    I doubt that much of the electorate have really absorbed or are really engaged with the HC ruling etc.

    But >> Newspoll continues to do its work….

  44. A crazy outlier on the Labor side would be great, even if it’s not statistically significant. A two point shift would set the hares running I imagine hehe

  47. I’ll throw in a very optomistic 56-44.

    Realistically we’ll see 53-47 or 54-46, my reasoning being that Essential has performed very poorly for Labor (52-48).

  50. Question
    the question is did someone lie to the magistrate to get the warrant. The AFP were there to get documents that they had not handed over because they had not been asked for, and they might be destroyed even though they had already been given to TURC? If they lied its probably not perjury because they would not have been under oath, or even contempt, but was it corruption? where is the Federal ICAC when you need it?

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