BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

Yet another quiet week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregation trend.

I don’t have full numbers yet from the ReachTEL poll, so the only addition to BludgerTrack this week is your usual weekly Essential Research result. This has made next to no difference on voting intention, and none at all on the seat projection. There were also no new numbers for the leadership trends this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

444 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  2. BK is experiencing technical difficulties (apologies as always), and asks that I post the Dawn Patrol:

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s Sunday, so fairly slim pickings today.

    Peta Credlin really piles into the Turnbull government here. Google.
    /rendezview/the-turnbull-government-now-a-vortex-of-shambles/news-story/773087440318d1d256d9418fef804be8

    Katharine Murphy begins this article with “f we step back from the controversy surrounding the tip-off of the police raids on the Australian Workers’ Union, this was a revealing week in federal politics. To understand why it was revealing, we need to mute the shouting and examine what is actually going on.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/28/coalitions-night-terrors-play-out-in-public-as-kill-bill-missive-backfires

    Anna Patty on the spotlight shifting to the independence of the ROC.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace-relations/buzzfeed-report-on-awu-raid-leak-raises-concerns-about-independence-of-roc-20171025-gz8hqj.html

    The government has gone into damage control as Turnbull heads overseas.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/10/28/turnbull-israel-trip/

    Bishop has said there is a “powerful argument” that US President Donald Trump’s threat to scrap the Iran nuclear deal could imperil efforts to negotiate a peaceful outcome with North Korea. You get tick for that one, Mesma!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bishop-warns-trumps-iran-backflip-could-weaken-pressure-on-north-korea-20171027-gz9t0j.html

    The High court decision leaves the Greens as well as the Liberal and National parties facing tricky internal pressures.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/27/turmoil-ahead-as-larissa-waters-and-fiona-nash-plan-for-comeback

    Amy Remeikis entertainingly farewells Malcolm Roberts. She has a nice turn of phrase.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/28/malcolm-roberts-was-convinced-his-beliefs-spoke-louder-than-facts

    Michaela Whitbourn tells us about Mehajer’s latest project – a monster defamation suit.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajer-promises-to-launch-australias-largest-defamation-case-20171027-gza2sg.html

    Peter FitzSimons scratches his head over how any political party could so stuff up the issue of citizenship qualifications.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-do-supposedly-serious-political-organisations-stuff-up-something-as-basic-as-citizenship-qualifications-20171027-gz9ngr.html

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Papua New Guinea has deployed its notorious “paramilitary” police squad to assist with the imminent shutdown of the Manus Island detention centre, warning refugees’ safety cannot be guaranteed.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/png-sends-in-paramilitary-as-police-warn-safety-cant-be-guaranteed-in-manus-move-20171027-gz9h02.html

    I know these “dark supermarkets” are springing up in China too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/food-trends-go-from-plate-to-dark-supermarkets-20171026-gz95g2.html

    The pursuit of a ‘single-payer’ healthcare system in the United States will degenerate into corporate welfare unless America takes on healthcare monopolies.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/big-medicine-monopoly-medicare-for-all

    Week 6 of Jess Irvine’s diary of her search for a first home.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/diary-of-a-first-home-buyer-week-6-home-sweet-tax-shelter-20171027-gz9za1.html

    Former excellent religious writer for Fairfax, Barney Zwartz, writes about the 500th anniversary of the Reformation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-martin-luther-and-christianitys-dangerous-idea-made-the-world-we-live-in-20171025-gz7qni.html

    The Uniting Church redress scheme for sexual abuse survivors is under fire.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/nsw/uniting-church-redress-scheme-for-sexual-abuse-survivors-under-fire-20171026-gz8l01.html

    Eleven of the best tweets on the High Court drama.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/10/27/11-of-the-best-tweets-about-our-weird-high-court-citizenship-drama_a_23259045/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

    Two of Australia’s leading arts donors have launched an attack on the federal government’s arts funding agency, accusing it of “outrageous behaviour” and lacking the skills to represent artists.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-council-accused-of-outrageous-behaviour-over-changes-to-venice-biennale-20171027-gz9t9m.html

    Is the Victorian prison system heading for another disaster?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/victorias-prison-system-is-on-track-for-another-disaster-20171025-gz821x.html

  4. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding sends Barnaby off to vote.

    Peter Broelman sees Barnaby out of the High Court.

    Ron Tandberg in Point Piper.

    Off to New England with Paul Zanetti.

    A couple of good ones from Matt Golding.

    ]

    Jon Kudelka quotes Turnbull.

    More from Kudelka.

    Alan Moir and the time Turnbull is having as PM.

    Mark Knight has proposed a national anthem in honour of Barnaby.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/462eac1a802b23a586004d64b1109375?width=1024

  8. A bit of over reach here by Murphy —

    ‘The Greens also swung into gear, amplifying Labor’s concerns, making it a story about a misuse of institutional power rather than a story about a failure of transparency.’

    What failure of transparency?

    It links back to her earlier statement:

    ‘So I think it’s entirely reasonable that Shorten and the AWU account for their donations a decade ago and explain whether proper processes were followed. I also think the funding flowing to activist groups, whether on the left or the right of the spectrum, should be transparent if the groups are politically active.’

    …which is based on several false premises – that Shorten and the AWU haven’t accounted for these donations, that proper processes weren’t followed, that GetUp et al have not been transparent to begin with.

    The reason the whole thing blew up in the government’s face was BECAUSE they had convinced themselves there were bogeymen in the closet, and when they threw a big enough tanty for mum to come in and look, there was nothing there.

    It was always a story of misuse of institutional power.

    However, it might indicate that the government has convinced its target audience – the media – that the bogeymen at least MIGHT be in the closet, even if mum and the rest of voter world are sceptical.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/28/coalitions-night-terrors-play-out-in-public-as-kill-bill-missive-backfires

  9. Strange – I returned to the previous thread using the “Back” button – and all BK’s early morning contributions appeared as if by magic! Another of Crikey’s blog Easter Eggs!

  10. zoomster

    In spite of your criticism, I thought Murphy hit the mark with this:

    Perhaps the Coalition – now at the end of the worst week it has yet suffered in office – could deal with its problem by trying to govern in sober and steady fashion.

    It could focus on the issues that matter to voters, and use that as a platform to inspire, and rally like-minded institutions to their cause.

    …
    Perhaps the Coalition could just stow the too-clever-by-half strategising and focus on the business of being a competent government with something meaningful to say about the future.

  11. …I would also add that both Murphy and the government act on false premises is they think that Labor’s on ground campaigns are delivered by people acting on the request of their union.

    Of course, unions play a role, and – in some electorates – quite a large one.

    However, in most electorates, in my experience, the feet on the ground are non-union feet.

    If it were a case of Labor’s ground game is superior because unions, then Labor’s Golden Age should have coincided with the period when union membership was high – which wasn’t the case.

    Murphy gets closest when she talks about delivering policy which appeals to voters, but of course getting people on the ground takes more than that – it takes a change in the attitude of the party at institutional levels.

  14. …sorry, still musing.

    If I were the Coalition, wondering why I couldn’t get feet on the ground, I would be looking more at the problems they are experiencing with the Young Liberals, for example.

    When your leadership incubator consists of people drawn from a very small segment of the population, you not only have a problem now but you’re going to have a worse problem in the future.

    The professional politicians in both parties aren’t just the MPs – they’re the advisors and party operatives as well. If these all come from the same demographic bucket, then the worldview of the party is necessarily going to be limited and thus unappealing.

    If the Liberals start looking at their problems at University level politics, they stand a chance of working out their bigger issues – but that worldview will probably stop them doing that.

  15. With solar now “the cheapest way of generating electricity, period” and wind close behind, it’s not the subsidy cuts that hurt the industry so much as the government’s signals to energy investors who deal in 10 to 15-year timeframes for new generation investments, he says.

    “What this government is saying is, we’re completely opposed to renewables and we’re going to lock in and mandate a minimum amount of coal and fossil fuels that are going to underpin our business,” Grimes says. “What the hell? I’m sorry, that’s just way off the planet.”

    Grimes says this is despite the premise that renewables targets drive up wholesale power costs being “blown out of the water” three years ago when the Warburton review found the opposite.

    Offsetting the solar industry’s “frustration and despair” at the Neg was Queensland’s emergence as “winner of the most improved award” in renewables nationally, Grimes says.

    From no large-scale renewables projects approved under the former Liberal National party government, the Palaszczuk Labor government now has 38 under way and in the pipeline.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/28/way-off-the-planet-regional-businesses-use-renewables-to-slash-costs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  16. Oil giants Shell and BP are planning for global temperatures to rise as much as 5°C by the middle of the century. The level is more than double the upper limit committed to by most countries in the world under the Paris Climate Agreement, which both companies publicly support.

    The discrepancy demonstrates that the companies are keeping shareholders in the dark about the risks posed to their businesses by climate change, according to two new reports published by investment campaign group Share Action. Many climate scientists say that a temperature rise of 5°C would be catastrophic for the planet.

    ShareAction claims that the companies’ actions put the value of millions of people’s pensions at risk. Two years after BP and Shell shareholders voted resoundingly in favour of forcing the companies to make detailed disclosures about climate risks, the companies have made unconvincing steps forward, according to the reports.

    ShareAction said that Shell and BP are meeting their legal requirements, but are putting shareholders’ capital at risk because of numerous failings in their plans for the future.

    Neither company sets targets to reduce emissions and BP’s total investment in renewable and clean technologies has actually shrunk since 2005, the reports said. That’s despite the company’s public-facing image of being “beyond petroleum”.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bp-shell-oil-global-warming-5-degree-paris-climate-agreement-fossil-fuels-temperature-rise-a8022511.html

  18. Canberra KNAG‏ @CanberraKNAG · 12h12 hours ago

    This is how Canberra works. Barnaby Joyce’s now ex Chief of Staff Diana Hallam is senior bureaucrat InLand Rail unit #auspol

  19. Looking at Goldman cartoon on the fruit bowl. I cannot work out what sort of fruit/veg Barnaby is. Looks like a dirty potato – but that’s Dutton! Should be kiwi fruit – or else a lemon!

  23. Peta Credlin would have enjoyed writing her article in the Tele 🙂

    It’s telling that Julie Bishop wasn’t immediately designated acting PM.

    Canberra gossip is that Turnbull is concerned about her loyalty and rumours that she’s eyeing off his job; yet he now needs her more than she needs him.

    It’s even more telling that Barnaby had anticipated his disqualification but the Prime Minister had not.

    So much for Malcolm Turnbull’s declaration, doing his best QC impersonation, that the High Court “will find” that Barnaby Joyce was entitled to sit in the Parliament, …………..Yet another example of poor judgment by a leader now caught in a vortex where nothing goes right.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezview/the-turnbull-government-now-a-vortex-of-shambles/news-story/773087440318d1d256d9418fef804be8

  24. Now that Buzzfeed has broken the media cosy keep quiet mantra to stay on the govt drip its going to be interesting to see what if any change there is from Insiders.

  25. zoomster

    If the Liberals start looking at their problems at University level politics, they stand a chance of working out their bigger issues

    The university based Young Libs behave just like ADFA Cadets. Away from home, independent from their parents for the first time and feeling like they’ve become one of an elite group and generally when doing anything ‘social’ as as a group behaving badly.

  28. Morning all

    it has been a fascinating week in Aus politics. The ineptitude of this govt has been laid bare.

    And US politics is about to go into overdrive. We live in interesting times

  29. I have just eaten a most delicious breakfast of steamed asparagus and buttered eggs, the fattest, juiciest asparagus ever. Courtesy of Woolworths “The Odd Bunch” for $1. So much nicer than the standard thin, limp stuff for 3 times the price.

  32. Sprocket: I was face-to-face polled recently by Morgan and was surprised to see them still referring to the “Nick Xenophon Team”, when the party has changed its name and is starting to be recognised more widely as SA Best.

    When I told the woman interviewing me that the party was now called SA Best, she seemed surprised, which didn’t give me a great deal of confidence. Surely they’d name the party correctly, while also pointing out it was formally known as the Nick Xenophon Team?

    I must say, talking with people around town here (country SA; always reasonably strong for the “others”), I haven’t detected any groundswell of anger against him or his party, certainly not in terms of his move back to SA politics.

    I suspect what is happening here is that people are saying they won’t bother to vote SA Best federally if he isn’t there at the helm in Canberra. But what happens at the State election in March is another thing altogether.

  34. NXT and SA Best aren’t the same thing. Its NXT at Federal and SA Best at state. SA Best is a bit to parochial for Federal elections.

  40. The most striking thing about the Morgan poll to me was the demographic figures.

    IIRC, well over 60%, (maybe 70%?) of X support was over 65 years old.

  41. guytaur

    I believe Stone’s account was suspended cos he tweeted some pathetic comments to CNN host Don Lemon. Mind you, I saw them yesterday and thought poor Roger is having a meltdown

  43. Victoria

    Many many complaints of homophobia and racism etc over time. So those comments do Don Lemon were straw that broke camel’s back.

    I agree meltdown is the word.

  46. gettinnoticedmo: Game: If you live near Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, Mike Flynn, or any of Team Trump, go trick-or-treating at their house as a cop.

    At 6AM.

  49. [guytaur
    timminchin: The @australian seems to be trying to elbow its way onto @TheOnion’s turf. pic.twitter.com/5vSaOgA2n    ]

    Idea of doG is perfectly logical

    Yes, absolutely, but that’s where the logic ends. 🙂

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