Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings deteriorate still further amid an otherwise stable result from Newspoll.

Newspoll retains its comatose form in its latest fortnightly result, with Labor steady on 37%, the Coalition down a point to 35%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 9%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on 54-46. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have worsened, down one on approval to 31% and up three on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 32% and up one to 56%, with Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 41-33. Poll courtesy of The Australian; numbers helpfully related by GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

568 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. It will be a week or two before the full damage flows through to the polls. This can’t be good for MT who, I assume, is already pissed as a newt.

  3. Turnbull’s personal ratings deteriorating even further. I’m sure Rex Douglas will find a way to spin this as a negative for Shorten and Labor.

  6. antonbruckner11 @ #2 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 9:54 pm

    It will be a week or two before the full damage flows through to the polls. This can’t be good for MT who, I assume, is already pissed as a newt.

    This is right. When were the Newspoll people out in the field?
    Remember, the HC only ruled on Friday and the Cash trainwreck unfolded over several days.

    Too many people here expect an instant reflex the moment something happens.

    We will see the effect of the previous weeks debacles in the next Newspoll in 2 -3 weeks unless something really dramatic happens before then. Pity there wasn’t a Newspoll next week instead of tonight.

  10. imacca @ #419 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 6:43 pm

    Was interesting point Tony Burke made today.

    All it takes is a “vested interest” to challenge Barnyards decisions or legislation that was passed on his vote.

    Now i wonder if the Union movement may be up for that?

    An action by one employee about to lose their penalty rates (they have a direct interest in the matter), backed by the ACTU, or some lawyer acting pro-bono??

    All you would need is one precedent to set in motion even more kaos than is evident now.

    Anyone more legaly versed than i with comment??

    In the event of a hung parliament, the speaker preserves the status quo. In the case of penalty rates, the status quo is people losing their penalty rates, because that was the FWC decision. Makes for a great attack ad though.

    Whoever challenges needs to be affected by the change to the status quo, some piece of legislation that would not have passed but for that one vote, keeping in mind that by convention the speaker will vote to maintain the status quo.

  12. Some interesting stats from david Crowe:

    While Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction has fallen, it remains higher than the results for Mr Abbott at key points two years ago.

    Mr Abbott recorded a net satisfaction rating of minute 44 percentage points in the days before the February 2015 move against him in the Coalition party room and a result of minus 33 points prior to the September 2015 spill that cost him his job.

    The government’s support in two-party terms is just as low now as it was in the period leading up to the removal of Mr Abbott, when the Coalition lagged Labor by 46 to 54 per cent for three consecutive Newspoll surveys.

    Tony Abbott can count.

  15. C@tmomma @ #12 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 7:00 pm

    Some interesting stats from david Crowe:

    While Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction has fallen, it remains higher than the results for Mr Abbott at key points two years ago.

    Mr Abbott recorded a net satisfaction rating of minute 44 percentage points in the days before the February 2015 move against him in the Coalition party room and a result of minus 33 points prior to the September 2015 spill that cost him his job.

    The government’s support in two-party terms is just as low now as it was in the period leading up to the removal of Mr Abbott, when the Coalition lagged Labor by 46 to 54 per cent for three consecutive Newspoll surveys.

    Tony Abbott can count.

    How many 54-46 losses has Trumble had? Gut feel is well more than 3.

  16. While Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction has fallen, it remains higher than the results for Mr Abbott at key points two years ago.

    Interesting that Murdochracy is comparing and contrasting with Abbott not Shorten. Speaks volumes.

  19. So Essential is the most Malcolm friendly of the legit polls (Ipsos and Yougov are junk) – 48%, with Reachtel and Newspoll 47% and 46%, respectively.

  23. While 55 to 45 would have been better , this result is enough to keep Libs panicking. Also the poll likely hasn’t captured full effect of the high court decision. I doubt average punter will be able to get his head around the AWU raids.

  25. Question,
    “Essential will be back to 46 soon enough.”
    Newspoll is now the most stable poll. Essential has been all over the shop, lately.

  28. Sohar, yes it seems susceptible to leaping inexplicably toward the L-NP, and then you have to wait 2 weeks for it to correct itself.

  29. Graham Richardson a couple of days ago ….

    His defence of Michaelia Cash last week topped off arguably the worst week endured by a government in almost five decades. Not only do I not believe a word of her confected defence, I believe she should resign because I have never seen a minister look this stupid. She should do her beleaguered boss a big favour and just fade awa

  30. Vogon Poet
    citizen @ #18 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 9:06 pm

    Presumably Turnbull should not expect a poll boost from being seen in the company of Netanyahu?
    Isn’t he heading over for the light horse reenactment ?

    Netanyahu invited Turnbull earlier this year. They seemed to be soul mates according to this article.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gday-mate-benjamin-netanyahu-lauds-malcolm-turnbull-for-puncturing-un-hypocrisy-20170222-guinpq.html

  32. So Turnbull is going to Israel on a junket.

    Nero fiddled while Rome burned.

    It is fitting that Turnbull now escapes his responsibilities by visiting the spiritual home of Yehudi Menuhin.

  33. If there is any movement in the polls nowadays it seems to be slow and sure.Mal is prob 60-40 behind on a moving average like the faster moving ones a few years ago.Its not going to be a quick reversal by any means.

  34. Rossmore:

    Cash has arguably looked stupider when she was defending her appointment of Hadgkiss to the ABCC. That was a sight to behold.

  35. adrian @ #350 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 7:09 pm

    ABC News has a ‘special report’ on a battle in WW1.

    Sometimes I think that the only history we’re interested in Australia these days is military history.

    I have a horse in this race.

    My grandfather, Ken Hamilton, lead a squadron in the 3rd Light Horse. He didn’t take part in the charge (which was 4th & 12th LHR), but did get the heel of his boot shot off by a German aircraft in the (successful) taking of the heights of Tel el Sabr to the NE of Beersheba – which allowed the last successful cavalry charge in history (so far) to take place. I still have the field glasses he used that day.

    He would speak of that campaign – unlike Gallipoli, from which he was evacuated with “trench fever” (probably rickettsiosis). It is a little weird to think that it was a century ago.

  37. Its laughable that the conservative bloggers on The Oz online site think the answer is to change Turnbull back to Abbott and they will win again.The delusion is breathtaking.

  39. Congratulation Mal you have locked in 54; impressed with the AWU raids you should be able to get Newspolls to 55, 56 with such innovation. Locking it in will require skill; but I a sure you are up to it.

  41. newspolls are just no fun anymore its like same same but !!!!! SAME.
    its just tick tock tick tock when the no.30 bus comes and collects malcy things couls start looking up

  46. I suppose thats true that there arent big jumps in the polls anymore like a few years ago.Maybe it is now the new norm.They hardly changed over an 8 week election campaign either.That is good news for Shorten and Labor in this winning position.

  47. Clearly the loss of Malcolm Roberts from parliament has damaged the appeal of the conservative side of politics. Who can he be replaced with?

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