Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings deteriorate still further amid an otherwise stable result from Newspoll.

Newspoll retains its comatose form in its latest fortnightly result, with Labor steady on 37%, the Coalition down a point to 35%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 9%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on 54-46. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have worsened, down one on approval to 31% and up three on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 32% and up one to 56%, with Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 41-33. Poll courtesy of The Australian; numbers helpfully related by GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

568 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Satisfying but I wish the movement happened this week … when Malcolm said with that smarmy grin “I love the Coalition” I wanted to vomit.

    55/45 would have told the backbench that he doesn’t really.

  2. Sohar @ #25 Sunday, October 29th, 2017 – 10:13 pm

    “Essential will be back to 46 soon enough.”
    Newspoll is now the most stable poll. Essential has been all over the shop, lately.

    Essential is actually behaving something like a normal poll should. I think it has improved. It used to be both too stable and prone to go off on tangents compared to the aggregate. It’s not that bouncy; the last 31 Essentials have been in the range 52-54 for ALP.

    Newspoll’s stability is partly down to its large sample size but it is still “under-dispersed”. It became less bouncy when Galaxy took over. Hard to argue with it after its result last election though.

  3. [Boerwar

    ‘As everyone with first hand knowledge is dead now, it’s easier to present a version that suits your narrative.’

    Defence has over 30,000 PTSD cases on its books.]

    I don’t think that’s the narrative the Government is looking for. 🙁

  4. Trump Is Having A Real Time Frantic Unraveling Over The Russia Investigation Criminal Charges

    On Sunday morning, Donald Trump gave America a glimpse of his state of frantic panic with a real-time outburst on Twitter that is directly related to the first criminal charges being approved in the Russia investigation.

    The President’s tweets are a bullhorn to the American people screaming of guilt. Trump’s tweets were loaded with lies. For example, the Steele Dossier wasn’t Clinton made. The research was initially funded by a conservative, and every report states that Steele worked independently of his funders. The dossier is opposition research, not campaign materials. Trump also openly states his belief that James Comey was part of a conspiracy against him. It isn’t Democrats that are using the Russia investigation for anything. There is a special counsel, and he just filed his first criminal charges related to the Trump campaign and Russia collusion.

  5. Republicans Flee The Trump Dumpster Fire As President’s Approval Rating Hits New Low

    The new Gallup presidential approval rating daily tracker reveals that Republicans are running away from Donald Trump.

    Trump has been on a steady downward trend during the month of October. His high for the month was an approval rating of 39%. Since October 5th, he has plunged to 35%. Since the President already lost the majority of the country long ago, this erosion in support is coming from members of his own party.

    Donald Trump is sinking fast, and if he can’t hold the Republican base, there is no reason for Congressional Republicans to go down with him in the 2018 midterms. If the Trump slide within his own party continues, look for vulnerable House Republicans in swing districts to flee Trump.

    The Trump bluster has been replaced by a dumpster fire that even Republicans are starting to abandon.

  6. Michael Moore busts Trump’s claim about the early closure of his Broadway show

    The latest target of President Donald Trump’s Twitter rant has been documentary filmmaker and author Michael Moore. POTUS tweeted Saturday that Moore’s Broadway debut in “The Terms of My Surrender” was a flop, but Playbill claimed to fact-check the information, and published a report saying Trump’s claim was not accurate.

    When the show was announced in May, it was mentioned at the time it would play for a 12-week limited engagement. It opened officially at the Belasco Theatre on Aug. 10, and despite not being a box-office front-runner, it did play its fully scheduled run

    Moore criticized Trump for going after him instead of tweeting about issues of national importance, such as soldiers who were getting killed in the “never-ending war” in Afghanistan or the people of Puerto Rico still living without electricity after Hurricane Maria tore through the area last month.

  7. ‘Just calling a spade a spade’: Ex-Reagan adviser stomps on ‘those 3 idiots on Fox’ for lying for Trump

    During a discussion on the influence that Fox News has on President Donald Trump’s daily diatribes, a former official in the Reagan White House lashed at “those three idiots” on Fox & Friends.

    Speaking with Reliable Sources host Brian Stelter, former Ronald Reagan domestic policy advisor Bruce Bartlett expressed his disgust at the way that Fox News lies and spins for the president, but he saved his sharpest attacks of morning show hosts Steve Doocy, Brian Kilmeade and Abby Huntsman.

    As the topic turned from what host Stelter and guest Carl Bernstein called the “Fox Effect” — using a cable news network as a propaganda tool — to Fox hosts in general, Bartlett singles out the hosts to Stelter’s dismay.

  8. Ex-US Attorney Bharara: Mueller will watch for Trump’s overreaction to Monday’s arrests before making next move

    Appearing on CNN’s State of the Union, former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said that Special Counsel Robert Mueller will be keeping a keen eye on how President Donald Trump reacts to the indictments being handed down — and arrests expected to be made on Monday — before making his next move.

    “So I would look for a couple things,” he continued. “I would watch and see if Donald Trump has a reaction and talks in away that could be used against him in the future. The second thing I would look at is if the president sends some kind of message to the potential defendant or at other witnesses. Is he sending a message of intimidation in some way through himself and his cohorts, suggesting that people should not be talking and should keep their mouths shut?”

  9. morning all.

    I make no comment – a recent reader comment under Crowe’s NewsPoll article in the Australian:

    Well, Mr Turnbull must resign for any chance of the Liberals to just get across the line at the next election. I think Mr Abbott is the only one who can demolish Labor. But – how about Andrew Hastie as PM with Mr Abbott as the deputy? What a formidable team they would be. Both warriors for different reasons. And to make it really interesting, offer Peta Credlin an offer she couldn’t refuse.

  10. Good Morning JR and the rest of the Bludgers 🙂

    The major problem with the Andrew Hastie/Tony Abbott ticket is obvious. As you have probably already figured out. That being the rest of Australia are becoming less religious, not more so and would recoil in horror at a couple of Christian soldiers running the joint.

    Not to mention we already have experience of Tony Abbott PM seared into our consciousness. Plus he’d just want to use Andrew Hastie as his younger, more handsome simulacrum proxy.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    I will not be in a position to curate the Dawn Patrol tomorrow morning as I will be heading for the boat ramp at Port Hughes in anticipation of bagging out on large King George Whiting.
    More than 100 Turnbull government decisions are vulnerable to legal challenge as a result of Barnaby Joyce and Fiona Nash’s dual citizenship status, with lawyers concluding there is a high likelihood the work they have done over the last year will end up before the courts. Oh oh!
    Urban Wronski – The Turnbull government blunders from crisis to catastrophe.
    Barnaby Joyce has revealed he considered quitting politics this year, in an emotional interview in which he slapped down his Liberal Party colleagues for sniping at the Nationals over the citizenship debacle. Quite an outburst, really. Google.
    Tony Walker writes that Turnbull’s grip on the political agenda is “precarious at best”. Ouch!
    And Richo urges Bishop to have a crack at Turnbull’s leadership. Google.
    Jennifer Hewett gives the Nats a serve. Google.
    Over in Israel Shorten says that Turnbull is to blame for the “turmoil and chaos” in the Australian government and parliament after the High Court’s dual citizenship rulings.
    Quentin Dempster says that a national integrity commission or federal ICAC is now under serious consideration by the Labor Party.
    Michelle Grattan says the Coalition will be looking very anxiously at the Queensland election.

  12. Section 2 . . .

    Tom Switzer asks “Is today’s emerging regional terrain more volatile than the late 1940s and 1950s when our leaders faced the challenges of decolonisation, communism and Asian nationalism?”
    The Cash saga reminds that a great many journalists are content to allow politicians to repeat lies unchallenged — even during close election campaigns. EBA Truth recalls the whopper that turned the 2016 Federal election.,10872
    Unions are demanding answers over the latest twist in the Michaelia Cash controversy, after it emerged a key figure in the government agency investigating the Australian Workers Union had been about to start a job in the employment minister’s office.
    One of the straw directors in the Plutus Payroll scam, one of the largest alleged tax frauds in Australian history, has pleaded guilty to a raft of offences including dealing with the proceeds of crime, drug possession and multiple firearm offences. Crash!
    The SMH editorial looks at several ironies of the citizenship fiasco.
    Trump is bricking it ahead of expected charges from the Russia probe. He’s venting on Twitter.
    Papua New Guinea has deployed its notorious “paramilitary” police squad to assist with the imminent shutdown of the Manus Island detention centre, warning refugees’ safety cannot be guaranteed.
    Westpac is under increasing pressure to settle a landmark court case brought by the corporate watchdog over the alleged rigging of one of Australia’s key interest rates after its fellow accused, ANZ and National Australia Bank, folded last week.

  13. Section 3 . . .

    Adam Gartrell tells us that the genius Malcolm Roberts will have hos work cut out to win a seat in the Queensland state election.
    The Uniting Church’s redress scheme for sexually abused children has come under fire.
    The NSW Education Department is having to double down on the use of demountable classrooms to manage the surge in enrolments.
    How Trump has added to the Republicans’ woes.
    The NSW government’s potential legal bill arising from compulsory acquisitions has soared to more than $650 million, as landowners challenge the forced purchase of their properties. These always end in tears.
    Theresa May has ordered an investigation into a report that one of her ministers asked a female secretary to buy sex toys for him. The Brits are pretty good at this sort of stuff!
    Public servants at Canberra’s National Capital Authority are facing their fifth Christmas without a pay rise after a bungled enterprise bargaining process was scrapped because of technical errors.
    At last the banks make some moves on usurious credit card interest rates.
    Natalie Flood of the CPSU writes that the public debate in Australia too often focuses on talking about the health of our economy without thinking about the health of our communities and says that the country should be aiming for full employment.

  14. Section 4 . . .

    David Penberthy reckons the power companies are playing us for mugs. Google.
    Jess Irvine declares that it’s time to replace stamp duty with land tax.
    Former s44 victim Phil Cleary has a big spit over the “failed constitution”.
    The government is seeking to prevent foreign parties from influencing Australian elections through donations to political parties, as well as third parties such as trade unions and politically active interest groups. How precious!
    Investors participating in a class action against Standard & Poor’s have been given the green light to argue the ratings agency deceived them into believing risky financial products were safe investments.

  15. Section 5 , , , Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding on the Streets ice cream boycott.

    Cathy Wilcox has found out what is the real reason for Turnbull to go to Israel.

    There’s SO much in this David Rowe effort!

    Halloween night with Pat Campbell.
    Mark Knight and how Mesma became Acting PM.
    Jon Kudelka and a particular government response.

  16. Now I don’t claim to be all over this but it seems to me we are spending billions of dollars moving Testra exchanges into little boxes in the street. Testra exchanges have fibre between them and copper to the premises with ASDL across the copper. The little boxes in the street, have fibre between them and something like ASDL across the copper.

  17. More than 100 Turnbull government decisions are vulnerable to legal challenge as a result of Barnaby Joyce and Fiona Nash’s dual citizenship status

    Is it wrong of me to give three muted cheers at the chaos that might ensue?

  18. With the fire season approaching, this is a great worry. Thanks, Liberals.

    The bitter divisions deliberately incited by the campaign destroyed the delicate integration of volunteer and career firefighters in the CFA’s suburban territory. Emergency Management Commissioner Craig Lapsley remarked in July this year to a Victorian Parliamentary Select Committee that the dispute had made Victoria’s fire services the worst in Australia.,10872

  19. Morning all.
    “The government is seeking to prevent foreign parties from influencing Australian elections through donations to political parties, as well as third parties such as trade unions and politically active interest groups. How precious!”

    So will mining companies, churches and property developers also be banned?

  20. Socrates @ #75 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 7:21 am

    Morning all.
    “The government is seeking to prevent foreign parties from influencing Australian elections through donations to political parties, as well as third parties such as trade unions and politically active interest groups. How precious!”

    So will mining companies, churches and property developers also be banned?

    That very thought crossed my mind too.

  21. “The government is seeking to prevent foreign parties from influencing Australian elections through donations

    The reality.
    “The government is seeking to prevent anyone who disagrees with us from influencing Australian elections through donations.”

  22. ABC seems to be running a re elect Barnaby campaign. If they’re going to provide balance later, the airwaves will be entirely devoted to obscure New England candidates.

  23. Despite the date being set for the by-election, I expect the AEC hasn’t formally started the process, seeing as the sitting member was declared invalid on Friday afternoon.
    One that starts the ABC should adhere to their guidelines. Joyce has always been good at getting media attention.

  24. Morning all

    Someone had better remind Trump and Fox News, that Clinton is not the President and actually a private citizen. The projection of these guys only illustrates how much shit they are in.
    Trump should have done a runner months ago, if he knew what was good for him.

  25. From Monsieur Le BK’s Dawn Patrol

    Theresa May has ordered an investigation into a report that one of her ministers asked a female secretary to buy sex toys for him. The Brits are pretty good at this sort of stuff!

    After considerable investigation I have determined that our local Federal Ministers have gained access to a supply of the probes mentioned in the article and these devices are now in constant use to such an extent that rumours now abound to the affect that a new Department will be created to supply, recondition and issue these devices to all hands.

    Also rumoured is that the probes are coated with a newly listed medical supplement named delirium which, as the name suggests, may cause dementia, dementedness, temporary madness/insanity.

    I now further understand that the High Court will be looking at recent decisions in the light of these revelations.

    The mention of the name Hastie which, when associated with Tasty used to bring joy to the hearts of late night drunks in ye olde Sydney (gasps for breath); is possibly caused by the over exuberant and downright zestful use of the said probes. The repeating of the name “Hastie” is done in a Tourettes fashion with coughing, spitting, gagging and grimacing.

    Addiction experts consulted about this diabolical scourge say that so far no cure is in sight but that the prime indicator of their use will be a highly visible series of stuffups and the continuing Hastie-ing previously referenced.

    Now mes enfants, let us now sing hymn No. 44.

    All together (pauses to swear at keyboard) now, “♫♪We’re a pack of ……………….♪♫


  26. The closer we get to the next federal election the more the banks will publicise how much they are doing to clean up their act & past transgressions, all to fend of a Royal Commission – wont work.

  27. Zoomster – I think I was a bit wrong about Malcolm yesterday. Yes, he is a crooked salesman, but he does believe what he says (to a degree)! Like all great salesman, his greatest mark is himself. He fools himself before he fools others. With Malcolm, it is a constant process of self-hypnosis.

  28. Truly heartwarming story on AM about a man of the people politician returning home to mum and dad and grateful voters. Brought tears to my eyes.

  29. If true, this sounds like a very false economy:

    Doctors are blaming a cheap vaccine for failing to protect the elderly in what has been Australia’s worst flu season on record.

    Figures reveal more than 217,000 Australians had laboratory confirmed cases of the flu this year – more than double the previous record of just over 100,000 in 2015.

    A $6 version of the vaccine was the problem, which did not properly protect the elderly, Immunisation Coalition chair Professor Paul van Buynder told News Corp on Monday.

  30. Expect to Julie Bishop at the Melbourne Cup what with all those international visitors in the stands & fields.
    What is the bet that Adani is a close companion?

  31. The AFP/ROC axis of justice raid a union on live TV, concerning whether the union’s minutes from 10 years ago are in order. Michaelia Cash’s attention to detail – the minutae of union governance – is clearly regarded by her colleagues as just the ticket in their campaign to traduce the character of Bill Shorten in particular, and the union movement in general, as squalid chancers, bogan “sucker-uppers” (to use their urbane and sophisticated Prime Minister’s words) who couldn’t even get their basic paperwork in order.

    Contrast this against at least year’s worth of senior ministerial paperwork up for grabs as potentially invalid, due to nothing more than wilful carelessness. And let’s not forget any previous ministerial decisions from Joyce and Nash’s time as Abbott government ministers (they were non-eligible for a lot longer than just the last 12 months: if someone has a mind to challenge the validity of previous elections as part of a larger ministerial competency case, then there’ll be more shit flying than in a Tamworth cattle yard).

    The irony of all this is too rich a dessert to be eaten at one sitting.

    Undeterred by the High Court’s now demonstrated lack of a sense of humour when it comes to the wording of the Constitution, Brandis bravely bloviates about “Cabinet decisions” providing cover for the disgraced duo. But Soapy forgets that it’s the signature of the individual that’s on the piece of paper – the ministerial certificate, the official appointment, the water buyback – that counts. The Constitution doesn’t mention “Cabinet”. It only sets out rules for ministers, fairly simple rules at that: you have to be a citizen, or else after 3 months you don’t have the power to order a box of rubber bands. Brandis’ own words may come back to bite him on his ample arse: we could be about to see the High Court’s “brutal literalism” strike again. There are plenty of QCs out there, with plenty of client money behind them, and ample idle hours to tie this mob of numpties up for years.

    Read the Constitution George. You’ll get it eventually. The justices of the High Court don’t like being told what they will “so hold”. The PR spin about Cabinet decisions that gets you through today doesn’t matter to them.

    So where are we at?

    A government that obsesses about a decade-old piece of paper involving $100,000 (and Bill Shorten) not having its i’s dotted and its t’s crossed, now has hundreds of senior ministerial documents probably invalid, involving a cost of maybe billions of dollars in misdirected and maladministered funds. Missing minutes anybody?

    It has lost its majority in the ensuing melee, and one of the ministers looks like shes for the chop permanently. Turnbull doesn’t have enough party room clout to see off the likely Lib who’ll replace her.

    Their own inability to get their basic paperwork right dwarfs the combined total of all the typos and all the i’s the AWU ever forgot to dot.

    One thing is, however, not diminished: this government’s inalienable right to stuff-up everything, even while pontificating about the bad things others do.

    It’s been a good week for idiots, but a misery for the rest of us.

  32. 22 Newspolls 8 to go.

    So bad the run is that the Media is actually ignoring Newspoll.

    Not doing Turnbull any good of course as from now on chaos and government in crisis are the telling narratives.

  33. The recent report by Chief Scientist Alan Finkel, now largely abandoned by the Government,…

    They try to duckshove decisions on to a Review of something, then go weak at the knees and refuse to put recommendations into effect.

    I do like Verrender’s description of Direct Action: “It’s the subsidy that dare not speak its name.”

  34. Jerusalem upmarket hotels and Beersheba event organisers not happy with uncertainty over Turnbull’s delayed travel:

    The delay in the arrival in Israel of Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has turned the capital’s luxury hotel business and various arrangements connected with the visit topsy-turvy.

    Turnbull was supposed to check in at the King David Hotel on Saturday night. However, it appears that he will not be arriving until Tuesday morning – and even that is not certain. He may go straight from the airport to Beersheba, depending on his arrival time in the country.

    Sheldon Ritz, director of operations at the King David, could not say how many rooms had suddenly become vacant as a result of the delay because he did not know how many of the people traveling with the prime minister would still be arriving, whether some had come in advance or whether some had canceled the visit altogether.

    Luxury hotels in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and the Negev have been booked out not only by the many Australian, New Zealand, and British visitors – some of whom may be staying on for the Balfour Centenary Day – but also by people who are participating in the Jewish Agency Board of Governors meeting and other conferences taking place in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv this week.

  35. BB

    I just keep imagining if this were occurring under Julia Gillard’s tenure. The mind boggles.

    i am fairly certain the ABC would not be spruiking for the equivalent Labor MP, as they are currently doing for Barnaby.

  36. anton

    That is an analysis I’ve made of Malcolm myself – most barristers can argue a case without actually believing it. Malcolm has to convince himself he is right, then he not only totally believes it, but sees it as so self evident that he can’t understand why others don’t believe it as well. Therefore everyone else must be either stupid or lying.

  37. One thing is apparent:

    The nastiness that was the Liberal opposition during the Gillard era had the effect of dragging all media into a new normal that is sympathetically right wing and not aroused to the same level of frenzy at similar events.

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