BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

The Coalition’s dire position weakens still further, as One Nation recovers from a recent dip.

Three new polls this week, from ReachTEL, Essential Research and YouGov, has moved Labor to a just-shy-of-career-best result in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which they now hold a two-party lead of 53.9-46.1. However, the seat projection total is unchanged, as a gain for Labor in Queensland is balanced by a loss in South Australia. The big move on the primary vote is to One Nation at the expense of the Coalition. No new results this week for the leadership trends.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

599 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 12
1 … 5 6 7 … 12

  1. Bemused,

    Is that the best defence you have for the policy?

    I “Vote 1 Labor”, but I still maintain the ability to disagree with their positions.

  2. peter love @ #247 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 9:00 pm

    Shelbell,

    That is such shit

    I think Shellbell was one of the few on here to correctly call the postal survey HC ruling. So I’d think that no, it probably isn’t. As detestable as it will be if the court proves Turnbull’s “and the High Court will so hold” boast to be correct, it’s at least possible (if not probable) that will happen.

  5. To be fair, the far right also claims there’s no difference between the major parties.

    Part of the problem with being a major party is that sometimes you have to take responsible decisions.

    At the extremes, reality is an optional extra.

  6. Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer!

    The vast majority of citizens and subjects in the world gained their citizenship or subjecthood involuntarily, mainly by birth and/or immediate decent. It therefore believe it unlikely to be the case that the Constitution is based only on voluntarily obtained citizenships or subjecthoods. Birth and immediate decent are the 2 biggest sources of citizenship around the world and are as such unlikely to be ruled to be some aberration that can be ignored, unlike a foreign power deciding that all MPs and Senators are Citizens or Subjects of said foreign power.

  7. All the RWNJs think Abbott is their saviour from Turnbull and Shorten from winning the next election.How wrong they will be. I pray for the day Abbott does a Rudd and get slaughtered at the next election.

  8. DB Cooper @ #251 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 10:10 pm

    Bemused,

    Is that the best defence you have for the policy?

    I “Vote 1 Labor”, but I still maintain the ability to disagree with their positions.

    Fancy that! So do I.
    I will be interested to see what eventuates, but in the present situation it would be nice for the presence of a suspected potential terrorist could be detected at places like major events. Why does that cause you problems?

  9. ..the Sykes v Cleary ruling considered the issue of a country conferring citizenship on parliamentarians just to make parliament unworkable. The thinking appeared to be that this would be a malicious act if it happened en masse (affected all parliamentarians).

    The fact they singled out this example suggests that (at least at the time) the HC did not regard countries changing their citizenship rules in the normal course of events as a concern per se.

    The two majors have acted in the way one would expect responsible parties to act in the light of the HC’s past interpretation of S44, by checking on candidate’s current eligibility and taking ancestry into account.

    Given that the Labor party, to my certain knowledge, acted this way on the advice of very very senior legal people, and on their advice took this due diligence very seriously, it would surprise me (but who am I?) if the HC accepted ignorance as an excuse.

    The only possible out I can see is if they rule that someone born in Australia has a presumptive right to assume that they’re solely Australian citizens. But that’s a slim chance, because Sykes v Cleary was (in part) about candidates who assumed they were sole citizens. In that instance, the HC didn’t accept that people’s assumptions about their citizenship made their lack of action acceptable.

  11. More Saudi potential weapons purchases –

    The US State Department has approved the possible sale of a THAAD anti-missile defence system to Saudi Arabia at an estimated cost of $US15 billion.

    The approval opens the way for Saudi Arabia to purchase 44 Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) launchers and 360 missiles, as well as fire control stations and radars.
    …
    Saudi-owned al Arabiya television reported on Thursday that the kingdom had also agreed to buy Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, an announcement that came as Saudi King Salman made during his visit to Russia, the first by a Saudi monarch.

    US military sales to Saudi Arabia have come under increased scrutiny over the Saudi-led coalition’s war in Yemen.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-07/us-green-lights-possible-sale-of-thaad-to-saudi-arabia/9026252

    Mixing and matching and buying whatever other countries will sell them.

  12. ajm

    Doing a post to see if I can bring up posts more recent than 8:25am!

    Just had the same problem. When I tried to post a “Test” I got a message saying “Invalid Captcha” !!!!!! .Solved by clearing cache and logging in again.

  15. Confessions
    briefly:

    Are you in Sydney?

    Yes, for a few days…playing with the new baby, schmoozing with my nieces and nephews and their parents, embracing my children…Sydney is glorious, too, right now. I had one of the best coffees I’ve ever experienced this morning in a Greek place in Earlwood. Tomorrow I’m going to join the walk for equality then hope to bludge over lunch.

  18. BK
    Diogenes @ #191 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 6:52 pm

    In SA, the Libs and Australian Conservatives are dumping on X and ruling out working with him to form government but Labor is much more conciliatory and hasn’t ruled out doing a deal.
    The Libs will find a way to lose this election.

    They have become expert in that regard!

    The Liberals will accommodate ON but not X. The Right are disintegrating wherever we look.

  19. poroti

    In the past they used to just call on the US and not actually get their hands dirty at all.

    After the first Gulf War that ‘support’ stopped and they went on a purchasing frenzy.

  23. I like how the erosion of civil liberties is an adult decision. I’ll send a van around to pick you up to our you in nice safe padded cells for the rest of your lives since that maximises both your safety and others safety from you, which is the only thing that matters right ?

  24. shellbell
    Sprocket

    I don’t think the High Court will be too interested in the subjective/objective dichotomy which has been used most extensively by Roberts and the contradictor to Nash, Canavan and Xenophon. It brings into the constitution ideas from different and not necessarily compatible areas of the law.

    I think they will interpret s44(1) as applying to voluntary foreign citizens ….

    The literal problem is that the text of S44 is very plain. It says “Any person who… (i.) …..is a subject or a citizen…of a foreign power…(etc)…. shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a senator or a member of the House of Representatives.”

    It is very bald. “Any person…” is an all-embracing class.

    It is rubbish…but it is very plain-speaking rubbish.

  26. Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer!

    The High Court could of course rule that if you are too stupid to consider that having a foreign parent might lead to foreign citizenship, you are too stupid to qualify as a person within the meaning of section 44i and are thus not not disqualified!

  31. Ctari

    Either the Russians have some very good sales pitches or they have demonstrated excellent capacity in Syria because there are a lot of traditional enemies buying their S400s. Turkey was a huge surprise and now Saudi!!!!

    I wonder if these sales are just about earning foreign revenue or if there are strings attached.

  33. dtt

    I reckon some cash would work for Putin at the moment.

    On the US Congress ‘approving’ the sale of THAAD I’m wondering if what they’re saying is don’t buy the Russian crap buy THAAD instead? Any ideas on that?

    Regardless of which one or both they end up with ,one thing we know for sure is the Saudi’s will end up with a version less capable than the ‘home team’ themselves deploy.

    ‘they have demonstrated excellent capacity in Syria’ – Maybe but I’d be surprised if it was was actually fired in Syria at all. Just using the targeting part with the Septics firing lots of missiles would have been a ‘gift’ to the Russians. A test with that many moving objects for it to try and engage is not something that many countries would be able to afford.

  36. Tony Blair has put himself forward as a peace negotiator between Spain and Catalonia. Apparently the Devil is too busy.

  39. Sorry to be so serious first thing in the morning.

    WHEN THE Australian Government announced in September 2015 that its armed forces were going to join the United States led “coalition” in the Syrian War, the official explanation was that it was to assist the U.S. in fighting the terrorists, who had by that stage captured large swathes of both Iraq and Syria, including major cities.

    That explanation was never particularly persuasive, not least because there was already at that time a significant body of evidence available that ISIS, the principal targeted terrorist group, was essentially a creature of the America’s allies in the region, notably Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. With the passage of time, it became even more apparent that the U.S. itself was playing a significant role in arming and otherwise supporting the terrorist groups.

    A detailed 2 July 2017 report by Bulgarian investigative journalist Dilyana Gaytandzhiev for the Trud newspaper revealed the CIA was allegedly using a variety of front organisations to supply ISIS and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Congo, Syria and elsewhere. Weapons were sourced from mainly European manufacturers and then delivered to the terrorists using the Azerbaijani airline, Silk Way Airlines, using diplomatic clearances. The weapons were distributed to various NATO bases and then transited to the terrorist groups. None of this was reported in the Australian media.

    The other explanation for Australia’s involvement in Syria was given by the Foreign Minister Julie Bishop when asked for the legal basis by the ABC. Bishop stated that it was pursuant to a request from the Iraqi Government and under the collective self-defence provisions of Article 51 of the UN Charter. The Iraqi Government promptly rebutted the first of these claims and the second was manifestly legal nonsense. Unsurprisingly, the Government has advanced neither justification since.
    …
    Again, unlike the U.S., Australia, or any other member of the “U.S.-led coalition” Iraq, Iran, Hezbollah and Russian forces are in Syria at the invitation of the Syrian Government and therefore acting in full compliance with international law. Unlike Australia’s fanciful interpretation of Article 51, this is real collective self-defence in operation.

    The final factor that should be noted in this context is that Iran-Iraq-Syria are an important component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — a massive infrastructure program that will enable, inter alia, the transport of Iranian gas to Europe and China. The U.S. is determined to thwart this massive project, and control of Iraq and Syria are integral to that wider geopolitical objective.

    None of these issues are discussed in the Australian mainstream media, which prefers the naïve narrative that Australia is “fighting ISIS” and thereby helping to “keep Australians safe”. The reality is that Australia, by its inextricable links to the American war machine, and the latter’s activities in Iraq and Syria, is furthering the spread of terrorism. The evidence of ISIS being a tool of U.S. geopolitical objectives is just one manifestation of this.

    https://independentaustralia.net/article-display/keeping-us-safe-us-led-coalition-not-even-fighting-isis,10796

  40. lizzie,
    I find the premise of the article questionable. If the US coalition is arming ISIS, why are they routing them from Iraq and Syria?

  41. C@tmomma @ #290 Sunday, October 8th, 2017 – 4:17 am

    lizzie,
    I find the premise of the article questionable. If the US coalition is arming ISIS, why are they routing them from Iraq and Syria?

    Are they? There isn’t a skerrick of evidence to support the theory that the “Coalition” is routing anyone from anywhere.

    In Iraq ISIS is being routed by Iraqi forces. In Syria, they’re being routed by Assad’s forces, with help from Russia.

    The primary objective for the coalition in Syria is to remove Assad and gain control of the oil fields in Syria before the Russians do.

  42. Ctari

    I am not disagreeing with you – I said either very good sales pitch or else they have demonstrated effectiveness.

    It is possible that the Russian s400 was used to stop the US cruise missiles that Trump fired over chocolate cake.

    What iS clear is that Russia is using Syria as a test /display site and is using some weapons deliberately to show off effectiveness as both a deterrent and a sales pitch. Just two days ago they fired kalibres from the sea 800 km or so at specific buildings in east Syria. I am sure planes would have been cheaper so I assume it was a sales demo.

    It is probable that they have used the s400 in the same way ie to demonstrate effectiveness.

    While Russia is no doubt keen on extra sales of anything abroad, they are NOT in debt and have heavily moved to import replacement and to decoupling from the $US.

  43. DanG,
    In Iraq ISIS is being routed by Iraqi forces.

    With support, arming, training and advice from?

    In Syria, they’re being routed by Assad’s forces, with help from Russia.

    After President Obama agreed to allow Russia to participate in Syria.

  44. I agree that it was probably a mistake for President Obama to let the Russians join in the fight against ISIS in Syria, but they are practised at being persuasive under Putin, and it was a feint to come in and support Assad and establish a series of bases and a foothold in the country.

  45. Interesting analysis by a Democratic strategist about why Trump will probably win again in 2020:

    The lack of voters’ faith in both parties increases the probability that there will be a major third-party candidate on the 2020 ballot. It will also lead to other minor-party candidates joining the presidential race. The multi-candidate field will further divide the anti-Trump vote, making it possible for him to get re-elected simply by holding on to his current level of support.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/trump-is-on-track-to-win-reelection-20171007-gywdp8.html

    Depressing, but probably true unless the Democrats identify a charismatic firebrand Anti Establishment contender. I can’t see one.

  46. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    More than half of Americans don’t think Donald Trump is fit to serve as president, yet he has a clear path to winning re-election. If Trump isn’t removed from office and doesn’t lead the country into some form of global catastrophe, he could secure a second term simply by maintaining his current level of support with his political base. What is this world coming to?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/trump-is-on-track-to-win-reelection-20171007-gywdp8.html
    Repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is “off the table”, Chuck Schumer said on Saturday, after Donald Trump tweeted that he had spoken to the Senate minority leader to see if Democrats were interested in helping pass “great” healthcare legislation. Trump really is bonkers!
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/07/obamacare-repeal-healthcare-trump-chuck-schumer
    The NSW government is under increasing pressure to ditch a heavy-handed directive ordering the state’s beloved cultural institutions to abandon their logos in favour of the official state government waratah. Hardly surprising.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/pressure-mounts-on-berejiklian-to-dump-orwellian-order-for-cultural-icons-to-adopt-waratah-logo-20171006-gyw1cm.html
    I really like this idea of introducing philosophy lessons into school.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/philosophy-lessons-lead-to-better-behaviour-and-marks-in-sydney-school-20171005-gyusfj.html
    Lawyers have sounded the alarm bells over an agreement allowing children as young as 10 to be held without charge for up to two weeks on suspicion of terrorism offences, calling it a “draconian move”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lawyers-condemn-draconian-move-to-hold-10yearold-terror-suspects-without-charge-20171007-gywaul.html
    Jack Waterford examines the work of the Australian National Audits Office and the lack of support given to its findings and recommendations. He is less than complimentary about the public accounts committee. This is an excellent and informative article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/public-accounts-committee-is-a-watchdog-without-spine-guts-or-function-20171005-gyvhvj.html
    Can NZ Labour cobble up a government?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lawyers-condemn-draconian-move-to-hold-10yearold-terror-suspects-without-charge-20171007-gywaul.html
    Observers tasked with maintaining the integrity of the same-sex marriage postal survey count are subject to a confidentiality agreement that bans them from ever speaking about it publicly.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/07/same-sex-marriage-survey-count-watchers-bound-by-lifetime-secrecy
    Jess Irvine is chronicling her experience as a first home buyer.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/diary-of-a-first-home-buyer-week-3-the-amazing-race-begins-20171005-gyvhlu.html

  47. Except for Bernie Sanders. Except he’ll be quite old by then. As will Trump. And I guess that’s all the Democrats can hope for, that Trump might fall off the twig.

    I don’t think even Michelle Obama could cut it. She has the fact she is African American and a Woman working against her. Sadly.

  49. Section 2 . . .

    Lenore Taylor expresses concern about the pressure being applied to Australia’s gun laws.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/07/the-gun-lobby-pressure-is-mounting-lets-hope-our-leaders-wont-buckle
    The mainstream media narrative that Australia is “fighting ISIS” in Syria and Iraq to “keep Australians safe” is utterly naive, says barrister James O’Neill.
    https://independentaustralia.net/article-display/keeping-us-safe-us-led-coalition-not-even-fighting-isis,10796
    The ice war is claiming all sorts of victims. It’s a bit of a worry Google.
    /news/opinion/andrew-rule/andrew-rule-ice-war-claims-all-kinds-of-victims/news-story/e75b57fbda8d46a3746da9ebaf8b6d73
    Australian police secretly operated one of the dark web’s largest child abuse sites for almost a year, posing as its founder in an undercover operation that has triggered arrests and rescues across the globe. The sting has brought down a vast child exploitation forum, Childs Play, which acted as an underground meeting place for thousands of paedophiles. Good work.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/oct/07/australian-police-sting-brings-down-paedophile-forum-on-dark-web
    Imre Salusinszky sympathises with the lot of political speech writers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sympathy-for-the-speechwriters-20171005-gyvb30.html
    The slaughter in Las Vegas leaves Peter FitzSimons in despair.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fitz-files-scale-of-slaughter-in-las-vegas-leaves-me-in-despair-for-america-20171006-gyvy17.html
    Theresa May is under pressure to publish secret legal advice that is believed to state that parliament could still stop Brexit before the end of March 2019 if MPs judge that a change of mind is in the national interest. The move comes as concern grows that exit talks with Brussels are heading for disaster. She’s in a heap of trouble.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/07/theresa-may-secret-advice-brexit-eu
    The sixth asylum seeker to die on Manus Island under Australia’s watch registered barely a ripple writes Michael Koziol.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sixth-manus-island-death-signals-a-system-in-chaos-as-australian-exit-looms-20171007-gyw8na.html

  50. Section 3 . . .

    The set of intelligence reports known as the Steele dossier, one of the most explosive documents in modern political history, is still hanging over Washington, casting a shadow over the Trump administration that has only grown darker as time has gone by.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/07/trump-russia-steele-dossier-moscow
    Grocon continues to enhance its reputation.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/tenants-complain-to-canberra-giant-geocon-about-wayfarer-building-disturbances-20171005-gyut28.html
    The new national facial recognition system is not necessary, will not make us safer from terrorism and will significantly erode Australians’ privacy. We should be asking some hard questions about the regime and questioning COAG’s statement, says University of Canberra Associate Professor Bruce Baer Arnold.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-national-facial-recognition-database-will-not-make-us-safer,10793
    Australia’s internet is at risk of collapse at peak hour as the public’s love of internet streaming outpaces the broadband network’s capacity to handle the traffic, an expert has warned.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2017/10/06/australia-peak-hour-internet-collapse-netflix/
    Have a look at THIS Airbus A380 landing in Dusseldorf!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/10/07/emirates-a380-makes-bumpy-landing-during-storm_a_23235772/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

Comments Page 6 of 12
1 … 5 6 7 … 12

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *