Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research records support for a postal survey on same-sex marriage dissolving on contact with reality, while voting intention remains unchanged.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 54-46, with the Coalition (37%), Labor (39%), the Greens (9%) and One Nation (8%) all unchanged on the primary vote. The poll also records 39% approval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage with 47% opposed, just one week after the same question elicited respective results of 43% and 38%.

The survey also found that 33% considered the top marginal tax rate of 47% too high, compared with 12% for too low and 39% for about right. A suite of questions on the Turnbull government’s handling of various policy areas recorded negative results for “the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy”, with the only positive result apparently being for “protecting Australians from terrorism”. Only 15% reported satisfaction with the government’s policies and progress in implementing them, with a further 28% reckoning only that it hadn’t made enough progress, and 41% expressing disapproval for its policies and decisions.

Other questions related to respondents’ financial situations, with 53% reporting that their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had remained even, and only 15% saying it had improved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,292 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. C@tmomma @ #1950 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 3:11 pm

    Why the difference between the 2 Ministers then? Why is it that Canavan has stepped aside from Cabinet and as a Minister, approved by Turnbull, and Barnaby Joyce hasn’t and Turnbull won’t let him!?!

    It’s more that Barnaby and the Nats have refused to go and told Tutnbull it’s a coalition deal breaker.

  2. Just recently LNP are in bed together for media reforms on ABC/SBS and today’s stunt suggest LNP looking for poor stunts to get themselves off the news.

  3. Zoid

    The good thing about the Burka stunt is I think the other cross benches will be less likely not more to vote for Government media reform other government bills now.

  4. It is beyond a disgrace that the two governing parties in this country signed a governing compact and the rest of us poor boobs (you know, the voters) don’t get to see it. In how many democracies would that be allowed.

  5. zoidlord
    Just recently LNP are in bed together for media reforms on ABC/SBS and today’s stunt suggest LNP looking for poor stunts to get themselves off the news.

    I have the feeling that will be the main story.

  6. “It was a shame George Brandis did not get a standing ovation from his own side. I suspect they were frozen, thinking through the strategic value or not of standing. Perhaps if a senior Coalition senator had sprang to their feet, the rest would have followed.”

    Whereas Labor + The Greens gave him a standing ovation because he deserved one. Tells you everything you need to know.

  7. ACOSS: There was no change in alcohol, drug or gambling consumption for 77% of people subjected to cashless debit in Ceduna and Kununurra.

  8. ACOSS: That’s because more than one third did not drink, gamble or take drugs beforehand and 43% reported no change since the card was introduced.

  9. Cat
    “Why the difference between the 2 Ministers then? Why is it that Canavan has stepped aside from Cabinet and as a Minister, approved by Turnbull, and Barnaby Joyce hasn’t and Turnbull won’t let him!?!”

    Barnaby needs the money?

  10. I think it was the Greens who got up first, from what I saw, then Labor joined in. Great photo on Guardian of Libs sitting mute.

  11. billshortenmp: Hanson’s stunt beneath contempt. Response from Brandis is spot on. Now let’s give her the attention she deserves – absolutely none.

  12. [briefly
    Barney….there is a presumption in all this that dual nationals are dodgy. It is just plain offensive to the 15-18 million Australians who are themselves dual nationals or who’s family include dual nationals. The suggestion is their allegiance is dubious. I think this is nonsense. I agree with William Deane.
    ]

    I think you’re conflating the issue.

    There is no presumption on the nature of dual nationals.

    This is purely a legal question before the HC based on the Constitution as it stands and their interpretation on what it means.

    Previous judgements say that it is not acceptable hold citizenship of another country and sit in the federal Parliament.

    You can have the opinion of thinking this is an error and it is unfair but that does not and will not have any effect on their decisions, just like others and my ramblings on this issue.

    The HC does not make laws it interprets the law and Constitution and assesses a law’s adherence to to Constitution.

    Much of what you talk about is more relevant to a discussion on changing Section 41(i).

  13. Brandis sounded genuinely pissed off, good for him. It now taints accepting Hanson’s vote on anything.

    I mean more tainted than it was before which was pretty stinky.

  14. [mikehilliard
    Brandis sounded genuinely pissed off, good for him. It now taints accepting Hanson’s vote on anything.

    I mean more tainted than it was before which was pretty stinky.]

    Don’t worry we are emerging from infinite improbability drive and normality will shortly be resumed.

    Any problems you then experience will be entirely your own. 🙂

  15. Cotmomma – from what I saw it was just a smattering of government Senators. But, in any event, I’m sure there are a few of them now who regret having let the moment pass.

  16. antonbruckner11 @ #1977 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 3:40 pm

    Cotmomma – from what I saw it was just a smattering of government Senators. But, in any event, I’m sure there are a few of them now who regret having let the moment pass.

    Yes, one of whom was Michaelia Cash, who had to look around her to see what others were doing instead of just intuitively knowing what the right thing to do was.

  17. I agree that we need a better test of loyalty than singular citizenship.
    However, as the Constitution now stands I’ll repeat what I said last night.

    I think the crux is whether all aspiring Members of Parliament should be expected to take reasonable steps to determine their citizenship status as a matter of course and that “not having reason to suspect” is not a good enough reason to not take reasonable steps.

    In other words, I think the High Court should take the attitude that absolutely everyone should exercise due diligence about their citizenship before seeking a place in Parliament and that to not do so (and take the attitude that you’re confident about your citizenship status) means assuming the risk that if you are later found to be a dual citizen, then its simple and final.

    For the High Court to take “I had no reason to suspect” as a valid reason to not take reasonable steps has too many side effects. Including privileging the lazy over the curious. I can’t see it doing that.

  18. The senate today looked a lot more attractive – until Hanson removed the burqa. Ugly on the inside. Ugly on the outside.

  19. I’m a little more circumspect about Brandis’s response. Absolutely correct, but the most exceptional thing about it was that Brandis found the cojones somewhere to make the speech. There are plenty of other parliamentarians, even on his side, for whom that answer, which simply states a few facts, would have been less exceptional.

  20. Came home to read about Pauline’s cover-up.My question: did she have a sip of water while wearing it.
    And bravo Brandis.

    PM was given ten minutes to defend Barnaby Joyce and only referred to him once.

    Heard PMs rant in the car. Just a catalogue of things to blame Labor for. Perhaps he was trying to “go out on a positive note” for the week. 😉

  21. I suspect that the Brandis’s response may have also been tempered with annoyance at the takeover of his security portfolio by that arch anti-Islamic dog whistler, Dutton.

  22. I was quite surprised by Brandis response to Pauline Hanson’s stunt. This from “Every ones got the right to be a bigot” Brandis. Bizarro world in Canberra.

  23. Labor ramps up the pressure on Turnbull over Barnaby’s refusal to stand down:

    Labor is threatening to heap more pain on the federal government unless Barnaby Joyce stands aside until his citizenship status is resolved.

    If the deputy prime minister doesn’t abstain from voting in parliament’s lower house when MPs return to Canberra in a fortnight’s time, Labor will seek to have all votes deferred until the High Court rules on his eligibility, which could take months.

    “I don’t believe we can be in a situation where bills are being sponsored by somebody where we don’t know whether he’s even allowed to legally be a member of parliament,” opposition frontbencher Tony Burke told MPs on Thursday.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/labor-steps-up-pressure-on-barnaby-joyce/news-story/a9dbcef304bb1df1e675c92150309cd9

  24. Michaela Cash was probably thinking about her chances of getting the next round (and there is always a next round), of industrial relations legislation passed.

  25. Employment minister Michaelia Cash held a press conference 10 minutes ago and Gareth Hutchens asked why government members did not join the standing ovation by the Greens, Labor and Nick Xenophon.

    She walked out.

  26. monica @ #1990 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 4:20 pm

    I was quite surprised by Brandis response to Pauline Hanson’s stunt. This from “Every ones got the right to be a bigot” Brandis. Bizarro world in Canberra.

    Hi Monica
    Diogenes drew my attention to this article yesterday:
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/aug/01/zero-suicide-the-bold-new-fight-to-eradicate-suicide
    You might have some thoughts on it. I thought it refreshing to see that line of thinking emerge.

  27. Wow interesting BK.
    I am currently in a hospital waiting room and an except of the stunt was shown in a 9 news update.
    The entire room was stunned silence.

  28. I’ve noticed in much of the international press Hanson is, correctly, being referred to a far-right leader. It’s a stark difference to how she’s treated domestically. Which is kind of a mixture of embarrassment and “Oh that silly Pauline what is she up to now”.

  29. Nice:

    Penny Wong has put out a statement to thank George Brandis.

    On behalf of all Labor senators, and of all fair-minded Australians, I thank the Leader of the Government in the Senate, Senator George Brandis, for his words today.

    The sort of bigotry and divisiveness we saw displayed by Senator Hanson today has no place in our society. It certainly has no place in our parliament.

    Today our parliament showed leadership when it was needed.

    It is one thing to wear religious dress as an act of faith. It is another to wear it as a stunt. That can only give offence and divide.

    Nobody needs to defend Senator Hanson’s right to speak. The people that need defending are the people she attacks.

    Leaders have an obligation to stand up for the people in Australia who do not have a voice and today the Parliament did so.

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