Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research records support for a postal survey on same-sex marriage dissolving on contact with reality, while voting intention remains unchanged.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 54-46, with the Coalition (37%), Labor (39%), the Greens (9%) and One Nation (8%) all unchanged on the primary vote. The poll also records 39% approval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage with 47% opposed, just one week after the same question elicited respective results of 43% and 38%.

The survey also found that 33% considered the top marginal tax rate of 47% too high, compared with 12% for too low and 39% for about right. A suite of questions on the Turnbull government’s handling of various policy areas recorded negative results for “the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy”, with the only positive result apparently being for “protecting Australians from terrorism”. Only 15% reported satisfaction with the government’s policies and progress in implementing them, with a further 28% reckoning only that it hadn’t made enough progress, and 41% expressing disapproval for its policies and decisions.

Other questions related to respondents’ financial situations, with 53% reporting that their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had remained even, and only 15% saying it had improved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,292 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. BK
    “Will Andrew Bolt come out and defend Hanson tonight and to have a crack at Brandis and political correctness?”

    Is Cardinal Pell a Catholic?


  2. Barney in Go Dau

    Don’t worry we are emerging from infinite improbability drive and normality will shortly be resumed

    You trying to tell me when I read in the paper about a whale falling out of the sky it’s all over?

  3. “Plus a bit of a backhander to George “People have the right to be a bigot” Brandis!”

    No P1, i’d take Wongs statement for what it is. Reasonable and forthright.
    Pretty much what you expect from some body smart and classy like Wong.

  4. This line from Waleed’s article speaks volumes about this government:

    ‘This may not necessarily have been the government’s worst fortnight, ‘

    That that is probably true says how bad this government is.

    He does reveal: ‘And so it is not completely without sympathy that I have watched the unravelling of the Turnbull government’.

  5. bemused
    Thanks for the article Diogenes posted. Very interesting and I would say reflective of how suicide prevention knowledge and practice has evolved in Australia, certainly in Victoria, over similar time frames to those described in the article.
    I don’t know whether it’s possible to get it down to zero, as I can think of one person I worked with who was actually in hospital, when he escaped and put himself in front of a train.
    He had particularly nasty schizophrenia. Hideous positive and negative symptoms
    Also, a friend of mine, talented artist, developed late onset bi-polar disorder and couldn’t live with the loss of creativity taking medication caused.
    She was stable but walked into Port Phillip Bay.
    Certainly, having relatively inexperienced clinicians working solo on triage is dangerous.
    Steven’s story about his son, Edward,was just heart breaking.

  6. [Simon Katich
    Is Cardinal Pell a Catholic?

    Is the answer 42?]

    Different question.

    Everything about the man suggests he most definitely is.

  7. [Ides of March
    Barney

    “Not again!”]

    The one thought that went through the petunia’s mind as it plummeted towards the ground.

    Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy references if that’s what you’re asking.

  8. Everything about the man suggests he most definitely is.

    Maybe I have a higher opinion of Catholics and Pell doesnt fit all the attributes.

    He seems more like a snozzcumber to me.

  9. I agree with P1 for once, George Brandis is a hypercrit.

    “People have the right to be a bigot” George Brandis March 23 2014.

    People have very short memories, especially the media.

  10. imacca

    “Plus a bit of a backhander to George “People have the right to be a bigot” Brandis!”

    No P1, i’d take Wongs statement for what it is. Reasonable and forthright.
    Pretty much what you expect from some body smart and classy like Wong.
    __________________________________

    That’s how I saw it. Penny Wong would not have been interested in playing games on this issue. I imagine she might have thought long and hard to ensure that there was no ‘political’ slap-down to anyone but Hanson in her statement.

  11. Zoilords. Is George a hypocrite? (On this at least). What Hanson did was beyond making bigotted statements. It was so far down the scale of basic decency that even George was offended. I get that. What’s amazing is that some of his chums didn’t share his anger.

  12. antonbruckner11

    Has Malcolm the Strong condemned Pauline yet?
    *********************************************
    He’s far too busy doing important things to do that….

  13. Though I guess George would say Pauline had a right to be a bigot and he had a right to slap her down. Interesting question whether Pauline has offended s18. I wonder if someone is about to report her???

  14. @antonbruckner11

    Indeed, what Hanson did was a stupid stunt, but nothing to write home about.

    Considering the nature of the fascist parties One Nation and LNP, they both are no better than each other.

    LNP though we’re looking to hide from their troubles with their citizenship.

  15. Michael Koziol @michaelkoziol
    ·
    19m
    Channel 10 reporting LNP senator Barry O’Sullivan may have a Sec 44 problem due to pecuniary interest in the Commonwealth… #auspol

  16. Michael Koziol @michaelkoziol
    ·
    19m
    Channel 10 reporting LNP senator Barry O’Sullivan may have a Sec 44 problem due to pecuniary interest in the Commonwealth… #auspol
    _________________________________

    Pleeeeeeeeeeese

  17. Sadly, One Nation’s next poll numbers will probably get quite a boost out of this. Many punters will love it. And just as Trump was boosted by all the condemnations of the “elite”, so too Hanson will be marked up by many of the Neanderthals.

  18. LNP never changes:

    avid Manne @david_manne
    ·
    4h
    Govt attempts to ‘silence’ the plight of people held in immigration detention struck another blow under rule of law

  19. Re: Barry O’Sullivan, I wonder how they find these things out.
    As far as s44(v) goes, my read would be that it depends on whether Newlands has 25+ owners. It’s also not clear to me whether “in common with the other members” has any meaning with regard to relative ownership.

  20. [Diogenes
    Barney
    Lucy Gichuhi stood up for a short time and applauded.
    ]

    Thanks Dio, good to hear.

    The bit I saw had her seated.

    Maybe the close proximity to Divided Nation was a bit intimidating.

  21. Pretty amazing that she pulled that stunt in parliament and our prime minister has not slapped her down yet. Way beyond pathetic

  22. monica @ #2012 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 5:09 pm

    bemused
    Thanks for the article Diogenes posted. Very interesting and I would say reflective of how suicide prevention knowledge and practice has evolved in Australia, certainly in Victoria, over similar time frames to those described in the article.
    I don’t know whether it’s possible to get it down to zero, as I can think of one person I worked with who was actually in hospital, when he escaped and put himself in front of a train.
    He had particularly nasty schizophrenia. Hideous positive and negative symptoms
    Also, a friend of mine, talented artist, developed late onset bi-polar disorder and couldn’t live with the loss of creativity taking medication caused.
    She was stable but walked into Port Phillip Bay.
    Certainly, having relatively inexperienced clinicians working solo on triage is dangerous.
    Steven’s story about his son, Edward,was just heart breaking.

    I don’t share your optimism about improvements in Victoria or elsewhere in Australia.

    There are still plenty of Stevens and Edwards in Australia.

    And there is an attitude of fatalism that these things can’t be stopped. With such an attitude they certainly won’t be.

    I have just had too many bad experiences with your profession and others in the system.

  23. https://www.boundless.com/political-science/textbooks/boundless-political-science-textbook/congress-11/congressional-elections-81/eligibility-of-congressmen-445-4245/

    Qualifications in the House

    Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution sets three qualifications for representatives. Each representative must (1) be at least twenty-five years old, (2) have been a citizen of the United States for the past seven years, and (3) be (at the time of the election) an inhabitant of the state they represent.

    Members are not required to live in the district they represent, but they traditionally do. The age and citizenship qualifications for representatives are less than those for senators. The constitutional requirements of Article I, Section 2 for election to Congress are the maximum requirements that can be imposed on a candidate. Therefore, Article I, Section 5, which permits each House to be the judge of the qualifications of its own members does not permit either House to establish additional qualifications. Likewise a State cannot establish additional qualifications.

    Dual nationality is no barrier to election in the United States. Nor was it a barrier in this country until the erroneous findings in Sykes.
    Nor is it an obstacle in NZ:

    http://www.elections.org.nz/parties-candidates/candidates/becoming-candidate-2017-general-election

    Candidate eligibility

    To be a candidate you must:

    be enrolled as a voter
    be a New Zealand citizen, and
    not be disqualified from enrolling.
    The main grounds of disqualification for enrolment that could affect eligibility to be a candidate are:

    being a New Zealand citizen outside New Zealand who has not been in New Zealand within the last three years
    being in prison serving a prison sentence.
    There are exceptions to these rules, for example, in relation to public servants or members of the Defence Force who are on duty outside New Zealand, as well as members of their families.

    There are other grounds of disqualification that affect a very small number of people. [For more details see section 80 of the Electoral Act]

    Bankruptcy is not a ground for disqualification.

    If you were born overseas, you will be asked to provide evidence with your nomination that you are a New Zealand citizen (such as a certificate of citizenship or a copy of your New Zealand passport).

  24. [antonbruckner11
    Pretty amazing that she pulled that stunt in parliament and our prime minister has not slapped her down yet. Way beyond pathetic]

    He desperately wants PHON votes on changing media regulation. One of Murdoch’s minions may have told him not to offend her.

  25. Dual nationals are not disqualified from sitting in the Uk House of Commons.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_Disqualification_Act_1975

    The groups disqualified from all constituencies are:

    Lords Spiritual
    judges
    civil servants
    serving regular members of the armed forces, except Admirals of the Fleet, Field Marshals and Air Chief Marshals
    full-time police constables
    members of legislatures of non-Commonwealth countries, other than Ireland
    holders of certain administrative and diplomatic offices
    all members of certain bodies, such as tribunals and government departments, plus some statutory corporations such as Channel 4
    Lords Lieutenant, High Sheriffs and the Governor of the Isle of Wight are also disqualified from seats for constituencies within their area.

  26. O’Sullivan:

    Government backbencher Barry O’Sullivan may have fallen foul of the constitution because of family business dealings.

    The Queensland senator has a stake in a family construction company Newlands which is subcontracted to work on an 80 per cent federal government funded project – the Toowoomba second range crossing.

    The $2.5 million contract covers demolition work, sewerage diversion, water mains and site access gates, Network Ten reports.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/senator-in-hot-water-on-business-dealings/news-story/2b92982110e6f5771d9bf80f7107c5c7

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