Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research records support for a postal survey on same-sex marriage dissolving on contact with reality, while voting intention remains unchanged.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 54-46, with the Coalition (37%), Labor (39%), the Greens (9%) and One Nation (8%) all unchanged on the primary vote. The poll also records 39% approval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage with 47% opposed, just one week after the same question elicited respective results of 43% and 38%.

The survey also found that 33% considered the top marginal tax rate of 47% too high, compared with 12% for too low and 39% for about right. A suite of questions on the Turnbull government’s handling of various policy areas recorded negative results for “the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy”, with the only positive result apparently being for “protecting Australians from terrorism”. Only 15% reported satisfaction with the government’s policies and progress in implementing them, with a further 28% reckoning only that it hadn’t made enough progress, and 41% expressing disapproval for its policies and decisions.

Other questions related to respondents’ financial situations, with 53% reporting that their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had remained even, and only 15% saying it had improved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,292 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Some objected to his command of the Australian Army on these grounds.

    ____________________________________

    Looking at you Grandad Murdoch

  2. P1

    Sam Dastyari demonstrated it may cost up to $25,000 per potential citizenship to be sure, and you could argue that this has now set the benchmark for what constitutes “reasonable steps”.

    I haven’t suggested that is reasonable or not and don’t intend to.

    Dastyari obviously decided it was worth the cost to him. That’s down to him.

    Were there a a myriad of voters calling loudly for Dastyari to be a politician?

  3. Yet there could never have been a soldier with a greater allegiance to Australia.

    If that is true he would presumably have had no problem revoking his dual national status.

  4. Boerwar @ #1754 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 11:43 am

    Is Turnbull still all the way with Trump to our national nuclear holocaust?
    Or has Lucy told him not to be stupid?

    The social pages can confirm Mrs Turnbull was otherwise engaged having near death experiences while mountain climbing as the ACO played on.

    ‘those who dance are thought insane by those who can’t hear the music‘

    trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyrPAeV93Q8
    (vertigo alert)
    The film is due for release in September.

    (PK was out earlier in the week, but that’s enough goss for one day)

  5. poroti
    Thank you for the explanation of the sticking out tongue and owl looking down last night. Just now caught up as I was interrupted last evening by our young neaighbours needing a hand.

  6. briefly

    I don’t know why you are still going on about the dual citizen thing. You made your point quite clearly this morning.

    As its not going to change without a referendum I recommend you save for the Republic Convention.

    What we have are a clearly defined set of rules people will either follow or not and bear the consequences the High Court decides.

    Just like we will have to do with the stupid survey with the directions hearing about 4 this afternoon.

    Whatever the High Court decides is what will happen . Like or lump it.

    Unless you know High Court judges grace this blog. In which case I think the case has been made well on the survey and that unless we have activist judges its unlikely that Joyce will still be Deputy PM.

    I think the government realises this which is why Joyce has been talking about his by election campaign. Not something you do when you are sure of an outcome. In that Joyce has been more honest than Turnbull with his the High Court will hold statement.

    I think we should be concentrating more on the real issues like the media decisions the NDIS decision and the debt debt and more debt as the government spends like drunken sailors.

    Basically I think if the Greens can show respect to the voters and parliament as you agreed yesterday the LNP can do the same.

  9. ‘…or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power.’

    On this, I have just finished reading a biography of Warwick the Kingmaker (Wars of the Roses period).

    At one stage, the French and English signed a treaty which had a provision that granted their citizens reciprocal rights – so, despite not being a French citizen, an English person in France had the same rights as a French citizen.

    I would suggest that this sort of arrangement is what this phrase refers to.

  10. USA Today pleads with GOP to help censure Trump for refusing to denounce neo-Nazis

    One of the most widely circulated newspapers in America has a new editorial demanding Republicans censure President Donald Trump.

    “Expressing disapproval in 140 characters or fewer is insufficient when the president angrily asserts that there were some ‘very fine people’ among the bigots waving Confederate battle flags and swastika banners,” USA Today explained.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/usa-today-pleads-with-gop-to-help-censure-trump-for-refusing-to-denounce-neo-nazis/

  14. TPOF

    I was not thinking of “how they feel” or specifically those in the armed forces but the damage to the national psyche from endless war and the normalization of “being at war”.

  16. P1

    Well, enough people voted for him to get elected.

    Maybe we should wait to see if they get elected then …

    Or maybe just leave the prospective candidate to make their own arrangements.

    Any way enough from me on a subject I don’t care to waste time on.

  17. Guytaur

    I think the government realises this which is why Joyce has been talking about his by election campaign.

    ____________________________________

    It occurred to me yesterday that this whole bizarre treason thing has been prosecuted in order to build up Barnaby’s standing as a victim of Labor in a very conservative electorate so that he will get a massive sympathy vote.

    By the way, from memory the only two by-elections that have been fought because the previous winners were declared ineligible to nominate were both won soundly by the subsequently eligible members – Cleary in Wills and Jacqui Kelly in Lindsay.

    Which is why Labor is quite happy to play up the shambolic nature of the Government, rather than try to pursue individual members. They are not going to win New England – and Tony Windsor won’t either if he is silly enough to try again – which I don’t think he will be.

  18. Re the Eligibility of MPs.
    IMO this is not a ‘constitutional crisis’, just another example of Turnbull’s incredible stupidity. He had no reason to denounce the Greens’ “sloppiness” in vetting their candidates, nor to suggest that they should be forced to repay their salaries. The entire thing blew up in his face, just as the ‘Utegate Affair’ did.
    The way that LNP is reacting to it shows the same stupidity.
    As for section 44 of the constitution; a Stat Dec from all candidates affirming their Australian citizenship, and renouncing the rights that any foreign govt might give them as a citizen, and refusing any obligations placed on that govt’s citizens. would seem to me to satisfy the obvious intent of the Constitution.
    Forget witch hunts after individual MPs. Concentrate on the Govt’s idiocy!

  19. I was disappointed at the time that the Republican convention was only allowed to look at the issue of becoming a Republic. Large portions of the Constitution are empty space, as they’re basically an instruction manual on how to go about setting up the federation, and other sections need modernising (particularly the mechanism for changing the Constitution!).

    A really interesting couple of years could be spent reviewing the whole thing, and involving the community in discussing what changes are needed. Done properly, this could be a very positive, unifying exercise.

  20. poroti

    TPOF

    I was not thinking of “how they feel” or specifically those in the armed forces but the damage to the national psyche from endless war and the normalization of “being at war”.
    _____________________________________

    Which is why that research was interesting. It indicates that the damage is uneven and linked directly to the extent to which people themselves experienced the outcomes of those wars. I don’t think there is such a thing as the ‘national psyche’ in a country as populous and diverse as the USA anyway.

  21. TPOF

    Windsor might win. With the polls showing as they are New England could want a change as much as the rest of the country.

    Otherwise yeah I agree.

  22. TPOF
    Which is why Labor is quite happy to play up the shambolic nature of the Government, rather than try to pursue individual members. They are not going to win New England – and Tony Windsor won’t either if he is silly enough to try again – which I don’t think he will be.

    Hopefully we will soon see some polling to test that question : )

  25. From the article on the ABC website linked by Ctar1 at 1.30pm:

    “But if we want to uphold the values of the enlightenment and of deliberative democracy, then whatever side of the debate you are on, demanding views be treated with respect is a flawed idea.

    This may sound contradictory, but it goes to a point too often missed in such circumstances: people are worthy of respect, ideas are not.

    We naturally adopt a respectful attitude to people. At this basic level, people have to work hard to lose our respect, and, even then, we may choose not to disregard them because we value human life and dignity.

    We appreciate that they contribute in some way to the social norms we all enjoy, and that they, like us, are creators of society as well as participants in it.
    More complex than the Yes campaign admits

    The human rights to freedom of speech and freedom of religion are also at stake, writes Peter Kurti.

    Ideas have no such empathetic traction. Unlike people they cannot suffer, they do not know joy, and they do not contribute by themselves to the happiness of others.”

    If we could follow this approach consistently on PB I think it would be a happier and more interesting place.

  26. Tom Hawkins

    Didn’t Joyce win comfortably despite Windsor looking like a winner in the polls that don’t count in the lead up?
    _______________________________________

    Yep. My limited experience is that voters don’t like being told their elected member is not eligible. I would take any bet that Barnaby would win a by-election in New England if he has to fight one. And against anyone.

  28. MarkDiStef: George Brandis has just written to the Senate president refusing the senate’s request for the legal advice on Barnaby Joyce: pic.twitter.com/IJ6Dymow2R

  31. Barnaby won New England despite defecting to be a Maroons supporter. So I don’t think his dad being a Kiwi will damage him much in a by-election.

  32. Just a brief comment on what would happen even if the Coalition lost New England. The Coalition would still have the most seats and none of the Independents or Bandt would see any value in offering to support Labor. Indeed, this would be the ultimate poisoned chalice for Labor.

    Labor would be quite happy to see this government shamble its way to electoral catastrophe in due course. So it does not need to do a lot to keep the shambles shambling along. The government is quite adept at that.

  33. guytaur
    briefly

    I don’t know why you are still going on about the dual citizen thing. You made your point quite clearly this morning.

    …’cos equality under the law is the theme of the year…

    I’m arguing in favour of reform of the Marriage Act on the grounds that it will establish equal protection under the law.

    The presumption inherent in Sykes is that there are pure citizens and impure ones..that dual nationality taints a citizen and disqualifies them from seeking election. This is offensive on its face. There is but one citizenship.

  35. Is there a reason the political types seem to like crossing out the recipient’s printed name and then writing it in again by hand in their letters?

  37. guytaur

    Apparently Senator Abetz has said marriage equality will lead to someone marrying the Sydney Harbour Bridge

    RFLMAO
    __________________-

    Incest?

  38. Briefly

    I do agree. However I think its not going to happen until we are reforming with a Republic.

    One convention to rule them all.

    If you are a citizen entitled to vote that should mean you are eligible to enter parliament. Otherwise not. Seems fairly simple to me.

  39. Apparently Senator Abetz has said marriage equality will lead to someone marrying the Sydney Harbour Bridge
    _______________________
    That is a bridge too far.
    Even for Erica!

  41. a r

    Is there a reason the political types seem to like crossing out the recipient’s printed name and then writing it in again by hand in their letters?
    _________________________________

    It’s a courtesy. In a world where all official letters are typed and printed, it’s a way of showing that the writer has turned to the content of the letter and not just bulk signed it.

  43. srpeatling: This should be interestings – Greens have successfully established a Senate inquiry into the “corrupting influence of political donations”.

  44. Interesting first question from Nick Champion. Turncoat falls right into the trap and gives a political spiel bashing Weatherill (again).

  46. BB

    Again well said

    Too many people live in la la land believing “it cannot happen here”, but wars and border disputes and trade clashes and immigration issues and offshoring of jobs and national security and employment conditions and environmental protection and issues over social matters (eg sexual preferences, child custody etc) and criminal matters eg drugs and death penalties all do involve some level of international conflict and you MUST have representatives and negotiators who are able to push the Australia line/best interest and not be conflicted over the interests of a foreign nation .

    As I posted when the constitution was agreed, the real fears were German Nationals, Dutch, Russians French and Italians. Germany had only fairly recently been unified and Britain and Germany had a heating up trade conflict. Of course as Sir Humphrey said – Britain is always hostile to the French. German ships filled with guns docked in Qld and there were many alarmed questions as to where the guns were headed. In Qld there was a very, very large German population and one account I read suggested that there was a deliberate effort to attract British immigrants to counter the effect of the Germans and their very large families.

    Oddly enough when I was a southerner I had absolutely no idea of the extent of German immigration into Qld, but on arrival found that about 20% of the people I worked will had German surnames despite being obviously long term Queenslanders.

  47. Regarding the reporting from the CPG recently, it has been quite good. I must admit I’m not used to it, and it’s been strange getting used to. I recorded Mark Riley the past 2 nights, but he’s still crap.

    I suspect his producers might be the cause, because when he’s on Insiders he’s not that bad. They also have not had him editorialise after his reports as you might expect on a week like this.

  48. Oh dear. Hanson getting desperate too.

    workmanalice: Parry says Pauline Hanson’s identity was known before she entered the chamber… so its ok for her to wear a burqa?

  49. briefly @ #1833 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 1:59 pm

    The presumption inherent in Sykes is that there are pure citizens and impure ones..that dual nationality taints a citizen and disqualifies them from seeking election. This is offensive on its face. There is but one citizenship.

    When you logic leads you to an absurd conclusion, you should probably check your premise.

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