Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research records support for a postal survey on same-sex marriage dissolving on contact with reality, while voting intention remains unchanged.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 54-46, with the Coalition (37%), Labor (39%), the Greens (9%) and One Nation (8%) all unchanged on the primary vote. The poll also records 39% approval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage with 47% opposed, just one week after the same question elicited respective results of 43% and 38%.

The survey also found that 33% considered the top marginal tax rate of 47% too high, compared with 12% for too low and 39% for about right. A suite of questions on the Turnbull government’s handling of various policy areas recorded negative results for “the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy”, with the only positive result apparently being for “protecting Australians from terrorism”. Only 15% reported satisfaction with the government’s policies and progress in implementing them, with a further 28% reckoning only that it hadn’t made enough progress, and 41% expressing disapproval for its policies and decisions.

Other questions related to respondents’ financial situations, with 53% reporting that their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had remained even, and only 15% saying it had improved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,292 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Player One
    briefly @ #1833 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 1:59 pm

    Prior to Sykes the distinction was between citizens and non-citizens. The question of multiple nationality was not relevant. It was so for 90-odd years. The rule drawn from Sykes has perverse consequences. It should be re-visited.

  4. Can’t see myself marrying the Sydney Harbour Bridge; but the Anzac or Gladesville bridges, who knows

    How about a Warren Truss?

  5. Briefly
    I’m arguing in favour of reform of the Marriage Act on the grounds that it will establish equal protection under the law.

    The presumption inherent in Sykes is that there are pure citizens and impure ones..that dual nationality taints a citizen and disqualifies them from seeking election. This is offensive on its face. There is but one citizenship.

    I find it mildly offensive that you equate dual citizenship with ME.

  6. mimhoff – But it will be a by-election, and it will give voters a chance to whine or even bring on an early election!

  7. triton @ #1793 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 1:10 pm

    Whatever the rules, officially renouncing foreign citizenship wouldn’t alter the allegiance a person actually felt or parliamentary performance one jot.

    I don’t know about that.

    For example, my U.S. citizenship means I have to file a U.S. tax return every year and pay U.S. taxes if my income exceeds a certain threshold. Is it appropriate for the U.S. to benefit from a portion of the income that I get for sitting as an MP? Should the Commonwealth have to shoulder the risk that if I’m lax about filing my U.S. taxes they might haul me off for audit and/or jail? Would I not have an interest in advocating that compensation for MP’s be set at a level below the threshold that triggers dual-taxation from the U.S., because it would simplify my tax situation? And would my position on military, alliance, and foreign-policy issues be untainted by the fact that if the U.S. starts a war they might try to draft me into armed service, and I really don’t want that? Or by any pecuniary interests I may hold in that nation?

    Though I think perhaps being a dual-citizen actually means that neither army will take me. Which is great, if so.

  10. dtt
    As I posted when the constitution was agreed, the real fears were German Nationals, Dutch, Russians French and Italians. Germany had only fairly recently been unified and Britain and Germany had a heating up trade conflict.

    Even so, the holding of dual nationality did not disqualify persons from seeking election. Neither the Boer War nor the Great War more fear of the Russians or the Yellow Peril provoked the disqualification of dual nationals.

    Once again, the proposition that dual citizens are in any way second class is inherently repugnant. We have but one citizenship in this country. Until Sykes, this was always sufficient to permit persons to propose themselves for election. Sykes is just wrong.

  11. Don’t know what Turnbull was ranting about (got the sound turned down) but the women behind him looked like they thought he had just won the election for them.
    Poor buggers. We’ll see how happy they look when they all go over the cliff with him.

  13. JamColley: amazing that ‘MP claims people want to marry a bridge’ was only the dumbest thing happening in this country for about thirty minutes.

  14. booleanbach @ #1850 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 2:11 pm

    Can’t see myself marrying the Sydney Harbour Bridge; but the Anzac or Gladesville bridges, who knows

    But if you and the bridge both freely consent, what right does anybody have to say it shouldn’t happen? If you’ve come up with a way to grant inanimate objects intellect, free will, and legal personhood, you get at least one free pass at doing something eccentric.

  16. Question
    Briefly
    I’m arguing in favour of reform of the Marriage Act on the grounds that it will establish equal protection under the law.

    The presumption inherent in Sykes is that there are pure citizens and impure ones..that dual nationality taints a citizen and disqualifies them from seeking election. This is offensive on its face. There is but one citizenship.

    I find it mildly offensive that you equate dual citizenship with ME.

    Likewise, I’m offended that dual citizens could be regarded as being in some way lesser; in the same way that I am offended by the proposition that LGBTIQ persons are now afforded lesser standing than heterosexual persons.

    This is about equality..

  18. a r, my comment assumed that nothing changed other than foreign citizenship status. If there are various other consequences then of course that’s different. My point was that if one really does have an allegiance to a foreign power and works to that power’s benefit in parliament, then that’s not going to change by signing a piece of paper.

  19. Rashas_Mo: I’m not endorsing this stunt but some people would, it seems, go to great lengths to make sure they’re not photographed with Malcolm Roberts twitter.com/ellinghausen/s…

  21. TPOF @ #1841 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 2:04 pm

    a r

    Is there a reason the political types seem to like crossing out the recipient’s printed name and then writing it in again by hand in their letters?
    _________________________________

    It’s a courtesy. In a world where all official letters are typed and printed, it’s a way of showing that the writer has turned to the content of the letter and not just bulk signed it.

    But did you notice that one of the letters Shorten sent Mal a few days ago was already addressed “Dear Malcolm” and Shorten had crossed out “Malcolm” and hand-written “Malcolm”! LOL!

  23. guytaur @ #1821 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 11:41 am

    TPOF

    Windsor might win. With the polls showing as they are New England could want a change as much as the rest of the country.

    Otherwise yeah I agree.

    I think Joyce would have a very nervous election campaign if the ALP decided to throw it’s organisational muscle into New England, either behind it’s own candidate, presumably with preferences to someone other than Joyce, or to another independent who was more palatable to them then Joyce.

    I know I’d volunteer to phone bank for the Labor candidate in New England.

  25. briefly,
    I think you have reached the point where debate is only entrenching your opinion. It has nothing to do with equality.

    If you chose to become an MP you can’t be a dual national because of conflicts of interest. What in hell has that got to do with ME???

  28. srpeatling: AG Brandis says to “ridicule the community and mock its religious garments is an appalling thing to do.” He gets a standing ovation!

  32. George Brandis draws applause from the vast majority of the Senate. Penny Wong follows through to make a statement by POO. Hanson objects. The President tells her to sit down.

  34. Apparently Senator Abetz has said marriage equality will lead to someone marrying the Sydney Harbour Bridge

    Did Senator Abetz watch the Sean Micallef program last night? This is so funny.

  36. Likewise, I’m offended that dual citizens could be regarded as being in some way lesser; in the same way that I am offended by the proposition that LGBTIQ persons are now afforded lesser standing than heterosexual persons.

    This is about equality.

    You keep saying this, but it isn’t. They are equally able to stand for parliament if they take all reasonable steps to renounce the other citizenship, which is not an onerous requirement.

  39. triton @ #1868 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 2:24 pm

    a r, my comment assumed that nothing changed other than foreign citizenship status. If there are various other consequences then of course that’s different.

    Fair enough. Though isn’t the practical implication of dual-citizenship that a second set of laws applies to the dual-citizen, which may give rise to conflicting obligations?

    Which also seems to have a bearing on the ‘equality’ angle. Dual-citizens aren’t legally equal, because they owe allegiance to two separate bodies of law, are obliged to follow both, and can be prosecuted under either.

  41. Great comment from Gabrielle Chan on the Guardian blog:

    In the senate, it feels a bit like your two year old sitting in the middle of the living room with a bag over her head to get attention. This really is a strange week.

  43. From the Guardian:

    Brandis gets a standing ovation from Labor and the Greens.

    Strangely, he doesn’t get the standing ovation from his own side.

  44. briefly @ #1852 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 2:13 pm

    Player One
    briefly @ #1833 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 1:59 pm

    Prior to Sykes the distinction was between citizens and non-citizens. The question of multiple nationality was not relevant.

    Whether prior to Sykes or after Sykes, the constitution explicitly ruled out “citizens of a foreign power”. It didn’t matter whether you were a sole, dual or multi-national citizen of such a power. It apparently didn’t matter (at least not in section 44) whether you were a citizen of Australia or not.

  45. BevanShields: Labor says the Federal Court will rule today on its bid to force the government to release the Coalition agreement between the Libs-Nats

  50. a r
    triton @ #1868 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 2:24 pm

    a r, my comment assumed that nothing changed other than foreign citizenship status. If there are various other consequences then of course that’s different.

    Fair enough. Though isn’t the practical implication of dual-citizenship that a second set of laws applies to the dual-citizen, which may give rise to conflicting obligations?

    Which also seems to have a bearing on the ‘equality’ angle. Dual-citizens aren’t legally equal, because they owe allegiance to two separate bodies of law, are obliged to follow both, and can be prosecuted under either.

    Dual citizens most certainly are not obliged to follow the laws of other countries. This is just wrong…It is an example of the misunderstandings about dual nationals. There are millions in Australia. Their standing should be the same as that of other “untainted” citizens.

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