YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov again calls a tight race on two-party preferred, but only because of preference flows that have the Coalition outperforming their result at the 2016 election.

The third voting intention poll from YouGov again has primary vote numbers that aren’t wildly off beam from the other pollsters, but leans heavily to the Coalition in terms of preference allocation. However, this is less severe than it was in the last poll, so I’ve decided to revert to type in running the two-party result as my headline, at least on this occasion. Whereas the Coalition led 52-48 in the last poll, this time it’s level despite both major parties being unchanged on the primary vote, at 36% for the Coalition and 33% for Labor. However, the Greens are down two points to 10%, which a) brings this result closer into line than other pollsters, and b) would actually have led to you expect movement away from Labor on two-party preferred, if previous election preferences were applied. One Nation is up a point to 8%. Applying 2016 preference flows to these unrounded figures, the result come out at around 52-48 in favour of Labor.

Other findings from the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull records 45% approval and 47% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 42% approval and 47% disapproval, which is better than what both are used to. Also featured are ratings for a number of second-tier political figures, with results of 34-56 for Tony Abbott, 25-38 for Richard Di Natale, 31-44 for Christopher Pyne, 39-52 for Pauline Hanson, 33-43 for Bob Katter and, with the only net positive result, 50-25 for Nick Xenophon.

• Twenty-six per cent say Malcolm Turnbull “represents what the Liberal Party stands for” more than Tony Abbott, 19% the opposite, 22% call it a draw, and 18% say neither does. The respective numbers are 20-19-13-38 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians, 30-14-14-30 for electability and 23-19-13-35 for strength of leadership.

• Fifty-three per cent say they would support a referendum on establishing a new body representative of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, but it may just be that people like referendums: of those in favour, 38% would vote yes in such a referendum and 15% would vote no. Support was presumably lower among those opposed to a referendum, but the numbers are not provided.

• Thirty-seven per cent would support a referendum proposal to allow dual citizens to run for federal parliament, with 48% opposed.

• Sixty-eight per cent believe women in sport should get the same pay as men, with only 18% opposed. Sixty-four per cent think the AFL officials who resigned over relationships with younger female staff members were right to have done so, with only 17% saying they were wrong to have.

The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Monday, with a sample of 1005.

NOTE ON COMMENTS REDESIGN: As regular users will know by now, we have a new comments facility which looks a lot sharper than what we had before and has a number of welcome new features. It also publishes the results in reverse chronologically, which is not to everybody’s tastes but has been done for good reason, and which you get used to quicker than you might think. Most of all, this has had a spectacular effect on the efficiency with which Crikey’s servers are operating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

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  6. William Bowe
    A statistic for the frustrated by-election fans among us. Including Canavan and Roberts, we have four Senators or ex-Senators in the firing line over dual citizenship — all of them Senators. The probability of four randomly chosen federal MPs being all from the Senate is 1.3%.

    Are you suggesting that we should stock up on popcorn William?

  8. William Bowe
    Thanks Rex. A short-cut button for attributing poll results to Bill Shorten’s failings is still in development.

    William,

    The Libs already have one, you just need to change the text. 🙂

  9. It’s probably not completely random that it’s Senators falling victim to the dual citizenship issue, since it seems a lot more likely to happen to minor party members. But still.

  10. Testing blockquote,

    BK @ #852 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 7:11 pm

    Without the C+ plug-in how does one include a quote in a post?

  11. Note if Roberts were ineligible at the election but Anning became ineligible only post-election (via bankruptcy) that would create a casual vacancy and One Nation would choose the replacement. A second recount would only happen if for some unknown reason he was ineligible all along.

  12. lizzie
    Eating a box of chocolate sounds like a verygood response to the antics of those two.
    lizzie @ #1343 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 6:34 pm

    Just before I retire for the night, I have a confession.
    I got so angry with Barnaby and Roberts and all that I’ve eaten a whole box of Belgian chocolates (it was a very small box, but delicious). And – sob – I’m supposed to be losing weight.

  13. One of the issues with Cannavan having Italian citizenship is that presumably he would be offered the chance to vote in Italian elections. Not sure what the exact process is but there have been a few elections since MC was 25?

  14. KB:

    So unless there’s some compelling reason Anning couldn’t take Roberts’ seat, Judy Smith as the 4th PHON candidate is no longer in play?

  16. Wakefield:

    The last Italian referendum according to Victoria who has family who vote in Italian elections, was in December 2016. Barely 7 months ago.

  17. The MDB thingy is going to cause Turnbull more grief than the Senategoaround atm.

    Turnbull may want Joyce to resign given the allegations that are floating about atm. If he says i won’t go and his Nats support him, then the Government falls imho.

  22. Confessions should be eating good old Aussie chocolates, not Belgian ones.

    But whatever, the antics of Barnaby and Malcolm (the other one) aren’t worth getting fat over.

    Steve (BMI low 30’s).

  26. Steve777:

    I don’t eat chocolate, Australian, Belgian or otherwise. I find it too sweet for my tastes. Cheese OTOH is a different matter. 🙂

  28. Greensborough Growler
    The MDB thingy is going to cause Turnbull more grief than the Senategoaround atm.

    Turnbull still hasn’t made an appearance in the last few days. Is he curled up quietly sobbing “what have I done to deserve this”?

  31. confessions @ #875 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 7:21 pm

    KB:

    So unless there’s some compelling reason Anning couldn’t take Roberts’ seat, Judy Smith as the 4th PHON candidate is no longer in play?

    Correct. Of course in theory she could be appointed in this scenario – as for that matter could Roberts if he had renounced in the meantime.

  32. citizen @ #880 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 7:35 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    The MDB thingy is going to cause Turnbull more grief than the Senategoaround atm.

    Turnbull still hasn’t made an appearance in the last few days. Is he curled up quietly sobbing “what have I done to deserve this”?

    The bombs gone off. Malcolm is in the bathroom in the foetus position trying to kiss his arse goodbye!

  33. Yikes! Apparently I’ve been invited to morning tea with the PM next Wednesday. I wonder if I can cajole him into have a selfie taken with me 😀

  34. I’m actually a little annoyed that the polls are stuck at 52 or 53 to 48 or 47. I think its obvious the current government is fighting itself, But at the same time, its pretty rare to get beyond such a result on election day.

  36. Perhaps Roberts’ delusional sovereign person rubbish is about to clash with legal reality. I know which one Ill be betting on in that fight.

  37. Nah, his lips are firmly attached Dutton’s derriere.
    Greensborough Growler @ #2376 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 7:08 pm

    citizen @ #880 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 7:35 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    The MDB thingy is going to cause Turnbull more grief than the Senategoaround atm.

    Turnbull still hasn’t made an appearance in the last few days. Is he curled up quietly sobbing “what have I done to deserve this”?

    The bombs gone off. Malcolm is in the bathroom in the foetus position trying to kiss his arse goodbye!

  38. James Scullin‏ @JamesScullin 3h3 hours ago
    More
    I choose to believe I am still alive and in my 34th term as Prime Minister #choosingtobelieve #auspol

  43. Anyone else having trouble with the unsubscribe feature ,have unsubscribed over 7 times and yet my email acc.getting smashed with comment updates.

    Anyone with a how to Making it work

  44. If you believe yourself to be a ‘Sovereign Citizen’ and the Sovereign is the Queen of England, ergo you are a British Citizen!

  46. Puff, the Magic Dragon. @ #889 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 7:44 pm

    Nah, his lips are firmly attached Dutton’s derriere.
    Greensborough Growler @ #2376 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 7:08 pm

    citizen @ #880 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 7:35 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    The MDB thingy is going to cause Turnbull more grief than the Senategoaround atm.

    Turnbull still hasn’t made an appearance in the last few days. Is he curled up quietly sobbing “what have I done to deserve this”?

    The bombs gone off. Malcolm is in the bathroom in the foetus position trying to kiss his arse goodbye!

    As the late great Chrissy Amphlett might have said,

    “It’s a fine, fine line between pleasure and pain”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj-82dn75bg

  47. Puff:

    The quality of the food and that it’s free is about the only reason I’d go. 🙂

    I’m sure I won’t be allowed to get anywhere near Mal the Magnificent.

  48. Ides:

    Our state Labor MP will undoubtedly be there to carry the can for Labor. Unless state parliament is in session – he’s the Speaker.

  49. WTH!?!

    State and federal Liberals in South Australia are also nervous about the conduct of the Nationals leader but one said while he believed Mr Joyce should be relieved of the portfolio, Mr Turnbull did not have the authority to do so.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/secret-recording-sparks-calls-to-strip-barnaby-joyce-of-water-ministry-20170727-gxk4nh#ixzz4o1ZAq6NX

    The Prime Minister of this nation does not have the authority to pull the leader of his rinky tink Coalition partner party into line!?!

  50. Mr Money, I believe the only cure here is prevention: never, ever touch the “Notify of new follow-up comments” thing above the comments box. I’m told this will be removed shortly. The good news is that it’s specific to individual threads, so it should stop happening when I add a new post at the end of this evening.

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