YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov again calls a tight race on two-party preferred, but only because of preference flows that have the Coalition outperforming their result at the 2016 election.

The third voting intention poll from YouGov again has primary vote numbers that aren’t wildly off beam from the other pollsters, but leans heavily to the Coalition in terms of preference allocation. However, this is less severe than it was in the last poll, so I’ve decided to revert to type in running the two-party result as my headline, at least on this occasion. Whereas the Coalition led 52-48 in the last poll, this time it’s level despite both major parties being unchanged on the primary vote, at 36% for the Coalition and 33% for Labor. However, the Greens are down two points to 10%, which a) brings this result closer into line than other pollsters, and b) would actually have led to you expect movement away from Labor on two-party preferred, if previous election preferences were applied. One Nation is up a point to 8%. Applying 2016 preference flows to these unrounded figures, the result come out at around 52-48 in favour of Labor.

Other findings from the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull records 45% approval and 47% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 42% approval and 47% disapproval, which is better than what both are used to. Also featured are ratings for a number of second-tier political figures, with results of 34-56 for Tony Abbott, 25-38 for Richard Di Natale, 31-44 for Christopher Pyne, 39-52 for Pauline Hanson, 33-43 for Bob Katter and, with the only net positive result, 50-25 for Nick Xenophon.

• Twenty-six per cent say Malcolm Turnbull “represents what the Liberal Party stands for” more than Tony Abbott, 19% the opposite, 22% call it a draw, and 18% say neither does. The respective numbers are 20-19-13-38 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians, 30-14-14-30 for electability and 23-19-13-35 for strength of leadership.

• Fifty-three per cent say they would support a referendum on establishing a new body representative of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, but it may just be that people like referendums: of those in favour, 38% would vote yes in such a referendum and 15% would vote no. Support was presumably lower among those opposed to a referendum, but the numbers are not provided.

• Thirty-seven per cent would support a referendum proposal to allow dual citizens to run for federal parliament, with 48% opposed.

• Sixty-eight per cent believe women in sport should get the same pay as men, with only 18% opposed. Sixty-four per cent think the AFL officials who resigned over relationships with younger female staff members were right to have done so, with only 17% saying they were wrong to have.

The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Monday, with a sample of 1005.

NOTE ON COMMENTS REDESIGN: As regular users will know by now, we have a new comments facility which looks a lot sharper than what we had before and has a number of welcome new features. It also publishes the results in reverse chronologically, which is not to everybody’s tastes but has been done for good reason, and which you get used to quicker than you might think. Most of all, this has had a spectacular effect on the efficiency with which Crikey’s servers are operating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

Comments Page 19 of 22
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  4. Imacca, I was consistently getting 22/23 upload when first connected but it now hovers around 15. Not sure if I should contact TPG or not.

  5. I see on the ABC News that the Defence investigations into various actions in Afghanistan are ongoing.

    We don’t seem to have heard much of Andrew Hastie recently?

  6. PING 7 ms
    DOWNLOAD 23.88 Mbps
    UPLOAD 4.78 Mbps

    25/5 plan in Freo, perth optus server just now

    Not bad, but wont get any better until the upgrade……someday…from FTTN

  10. Again, a suggestion when doing speedtest, particularly for getting a better idea of what your experience is actually like, try using a test server some distance away from your actual location. Being able to download & in particular upload to a sever practically next door (lets say 50-100km) is one thing. Going cross country or international is another.
    My nearest server (Geographically)

    Sydney (Looks like a nearer hop, will investigate)

    California

  12. Thanks William. Yeah was just seeing what all the icons were for . Mum. Always told me don’t fiddle.
    But I couldn’t help myself

  15. Imacca, I was consistently getting 22/23 upload when first connected but it now hovers around 15. Not sure if I should contact TPG or not.

    Hmmmm….i was at first getting around 15 or so, but latley am getting it pretty consistent 19-22 down. dont seem to have any congestion issues on my node as yet either, but they have really only just started connecting people in my suburb in the last month and a half.

  17. confessions
    Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 7:41 pm
    Comment #883
    Yikes! Apparently I’ve been invited to morning tea with the PM next Wednesday. I wonder if I can cajole him into have a selfie taken with me

    After my tete a tete with Julia Gillard last weekend I can fully appreciate how you must be feeling Fess. The very thought of being in the same room as Mal the Magnificent must have your heart all a flutter. Do try not to swoon won’t you.

  19. Zeh @ #910 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 8:02 pm

    Sydney (Looks like a nearer hop, will investigate)

    Your ISP is possibly routing all of your traffic through a mainland-based point-of-presence (most likely in Sydney)? So to get toa speedtest node in Tasmania, your traffic is being forced to hop over and then back?

    Here’s mine to California:

  20. That is a legitimate rescue, not a theft, imo. She did call the council and nothing happened. If the RSPCA was not so bloody useless, sitting on millions while the services they offer are inadequate, they could have taken the animal into care and handled it legally, including charging the owner with neglect.

    confessions. @ #903 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 7:28 pm

    Puff:

    Interested in your thoughts about this:
    http://www.communitynews.com.au/weekend-courier/news/rockingham-woman-given-good-behaviour-bond-after-stealing-neighbours-dog-to-care-for-it/

    Personally I think this is an area of the law that needs looking into, esp as the woman was acting in the dog’s interests in the face of its careless and irresponsible owner.

  21. By the way the Senate recount that would get really messy, if it happened, would be one for either McKim or Whish-Wilson in Tasmania. Because of McKim’s tiny margin and the huge BTL votes for both there’s a high chance that a recount for either would throw the Greens’ #2 seat to One Nation, but to say for certain if it would or not one would need to do a full simulation.

    Even the disqualification of a non-Greens Tassie senator from the 2016 election could in theory unseat a Green although then the High Court would have to decide whether this was allowed as per the Caiafa case in Melbourne or not.

  26. Re the ‘stolen’ dog – left without food and water for two weeks. The ‘owner’ should be charged with animal cruelty, get a fair trial then go directly to jail, not passing go and not collecting $200.

  27. Zeh. I’m on my phone and it seems to be fiddly to get images. It might be easier on the pc. I’ll try it later. Out of curiosity how did you get California? I only seem to be able to select oz and our nearest pacific neighbors.

  29. And live on bread and water for two weeks, it would be more than the dog got.
    the poor thing would’ve been dead by the time the owner returned. I don’t go out without leaving food and water in case I end up in a car accident and in hospital. They could live for at least a fornight till my family got to them.
    Steve777 @ #926 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 7:49 pm

    Re the ‘stolen’ dog – left without food and water for two weeks. The ‘owner’ should be charged with animal cruelty, get a fair trial then go directly to jail, not passing go and not collecting $200.

  30. Zeh @ #924 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 8:16 pm

    a r @ #919 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 8:10 pm

    This is probably to do with the ‘gaming’ package I have with them, they claim lower latencies. Most game servers that actually exist in Aus are in Sydney…

    Indeed, first hop is into sydney, then on to melbourne
    [spoiler title=”Traceroute”]
    1 mydevice.lan (192.168.1.1) 0.428 ms 0.759 ms 1.237 ms
    2 103-217-164-58.myrepublic.net (103.217.164.58) 73.270 ms 73.426 ms 73.307 ms
    3 asn9310.bdr04.syd03.nsw.vocus.net.au (49.255.206.106) 74.553 ms 74.636 ms 76.513 ms
    4 119.225.36.102 (119.225.36.102) 76.582 ms 76.808 ms 76.899 ms
    5 119.225.36.101 (119.225.36.101) 77.004 ms 77.073 ms 85.097 ms
    6 * * *
    7 * * *
    8 * * *
    9 210.49.108.78 (210.49.108.78) 92.561 ms 210.49.108.70 (210.49.108.70) 88.883 ms 88.574 ms
    10 speedtest.mel.optusnet.com.au (198.142.236.132) 89.472 ms 90.737 ms 91.097 ms
    [/spoiler]

  31. Steve777:

    I’ve been known to corral supermarket security guards to intervene when I’ve seen dogs heat stressed in cars in the supermarket carpark. I’m totally down with a neighbour ‘stealing’ their neighbour’s dog which was abandoned for 2 weeks in order to ensure it had proper care. I mean who goes on holiday for 2 weeks without ensuring their pet has proper care? That’s abuse and neglect in anyone’s language as far as I’m concerned.

  32. Given there is speculation that Malcolm Roberts could be Indian, British or Australian it is appropriate we demand Empirical evidence of his citizenship!

  33. Zeh,
    If MyRepublic are good for Gaming then they are good enough for me!…she says as she slinks off to play some more Spelunky.

    (>‿◠)✌

  36. Good on you Confessions.
    And it is not hard to put a dish under a dripping tap to make sure there is water there all the time, and an automatic water dish is less than a hundred bucks.

  40. Puff:

    Or alternatively professional pet sitters abound these days. We even have them in regional WA and I’ve used their services when I’ve had to go away for work to ensure my baby wasn’t inconvenienced by my absence. And they aren’t expensive either.

  43. lizzie @ #824 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 4:44 pm

    There’s another factor to be added – no return flows.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-27/murray-darling-300-billion-litres-of-environmental-water-lost/8748794

    [About 300 billion litres of environmental water has been “lost” in the Murray-Darling Basin in recent years as farmers have been heavily subsidised to improve their irrigation practices, according to a leading water scientist.

    John Williams, a foundation member of the Wentworth Group and a former chief of CSIRO Land and Water, said the volume of water loss is 50 to 100 times greater than the allegations of illegal pumping and fraud in the Barwon and Darling Rivers exposed by Four Corners earlier this week.]

    Labour should hold a Royal Commission into this at the first opportunity and use the outcome of it to bash the L/NP and the farmer’s unions as relentlessly as the L/NP have gone after unions. We need to destroy their reputation!

  44. The RSPCA has jurisdiction to enter into private property and remove animals in peril in NSW.

    Surely that is the case elsewhere?

  45. Barnaby’s pub remarks just remind me of Abbott.

    Say what ever you think the audience want to hear irrespective of contrary comments you may have made elsewhere on the same day.

    And of course the truth has no consideration.

    The pub remarks are probably what he really thinks, but stupidly didn’t think, or maybe deliberately hoping, they would get out the room.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-27/murray-darling-basin-plan-investigation-a-calamity,-joyce-says/8749620

  48. Big thanks to Zeh and AR for restoring the combination of chronological order and pages (as an option). Now much easier to follow the discussion.

    One tiny issue. When loading a new page it doesn’t go to the top of the new page, but about 3-4 comments down.

  50. I know Barnaby has taken over Canavan’s portfolio in the interim but who have the Nats got to come into the Ministry?

Comments are closed.

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