YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov again calls a tight race on two-party preferred, but only because of preference flows that have the Coalition outperforming their result at the 2016 election.

The third voting intention poll from YouGov again has primary vote numbers that aren’t wildly off beam from the other pollsters, but leans heavily to the Coalition in terms of preference allocation. However, this is less severe than it was in the last poll, so I’ve decided to revert to type in running the two-party result as my headline, at least on this occasion. Whereas the Coalition led 52-48 in the last poll, this time it’s level despite both major parties being unchanged on the primary vote, at 36% for the Coalition and 33% for Labor. However, the Greens are down two points to 10%, which a) brings this result closer into line than other pollsters, and b) would actually have led to you expect movement away from Labor on two-party preferred, if previous election preferences were applied. One Nation is up a point to 8%. Applying 2016 preference flows to these unrounded figures, the result come out at around 52-48 in favour of Labor.

Other findings from the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull records 45% approval and 47% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 42% approval and 47% disapproval, which is better than what both are used to. Also featured are ratings for a number of second-tier political figures, with results of 34-56 for Tony Abbott, 25-38 for Richard Di Natale, 31-44 for Christopher Pyne, 39-52 for Pauline Hanson, 33-43 for Bob Katter and, with the only net positive result, 50-25 for Nick Xenophon.

• Twenty-six per cent say Malcolm Turnbull “represents what the Liberal Party stands for” more than Tony Abbott, 19% the opposite, 22% call it a draw, and 18% say neither does. The respective numbers are 20-19-13-38 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians, 30-14-14-30 for electability and 23-19-13-35 for strength of leadership.

• Fifty-three per cent say they would support a referendum on establishing a new body representative of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, but it may just be that people like referendums: of those in favour, 38% would vote yes in such a referendum and 15% would vote no. Support was presumably lower among those opposed to a referendum, but the numbers are not provided.

• Thirty-seven per cent would support a referendum proposal to allow dual citizens to run for federal parliament, with 48% opposed.

• Sixty-eight per cent believe women in sport should get the same pay as men, with only 18% opposed. Sixty-four per cent think the AFL officials who resigned over relationships with younger female staff members were right to have done so, with only 17% saying they were wrong to have.

The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Monday, with a sample of 1005.

NOTE ON COMMENTS REDESIGN: As regular users will know by now, we have a new comments facility which looks a lot sharper than what we had before and has a number of welcome new features. It also publishes the results in reverse chronologically, which is not to everybody’s tastes but has been done for good reason, and which you get used to quicker than you might think. Most of all, this has had a spectacular effect on the efficiency with which Crikey’s servers are operating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

Comments Page 13 of 22
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  2. adrian @ #595 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 2:06 pm

    Am I the only one that has pages?

    This makes the new format completely manageable and far better than the old format. I have added no plug-ins or anything else.

    I have pages, except it’s always at No. 1. (drop-down box) I’m assuming Page 1 means latest comments.

    I don’t dare try to access any other page, because it may take me back to ground zero, where nothing works.

  6. Internet howls after Scaramucci accuses Priebus of leaking his disclosure forms

    In baffling tweet on Wednesday night, White House Communications Director Andrew Scarmucci appeared to accuse Chief of Staff Reince Priebus of leaking his financial disclosure form.

    Scarmucci vowed to have the FBI and DOJ (two entities his principal, Donald Trump, has repeatedly berated) investigate what he described as a “felonious” leak.

    Financial disclosure forms are public documents, and are eventually made available online via the White House website.

    The absurdity did not go unnoticed by the Internet

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/those-are-public-records-my-dude-internet-howls-after-scaramucci-accuses-priebus-of-leaking-his-disclosure-forms/

  7. I don’t see a quote button. Android phone.

    Anyway I read a tweet lunking to the mail tampering laws. If Canavan’s mum intentionally withheld his mail from him she committed a federal offence.

  8. Is it possible that Matteo Canavani’s mother didn’t tell him about the ballot papers because she used his papers to vote twice?

    Hmmm …

  9. chinda63 @ #572 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 1:50 pm

    I should clarify that I mean that Sec 44 needs to be cleaned up in order to provide clarity around Australian citizens who might get caught up in such technicalities. And I am referring to the technicalities; the complicated cases.

    Then we appear to be in furious agreement. Shouldn’t take a lot to reword the clause to avoid the inadvertent issues.

  10. shiftaling @ #607 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 2:18 pm

    I don’t see a quote button. Android phone.

    Anyway I read a tweet lunking to the mail tampering laws. If Canavan’s mum intentionally withheld his mail from him she committed a federal offence.

    Being a dutiful son, I am sure he will visit her while she is doing time. 😀

  12. Ok I’ve re-enabled the add on and there is an option to tick to enable nested comments, which might help JAckol.

    Problem is comments are all over the shop and not showing most recent first even though that box is ticked, so I’m going to diseanable it yet again.

  13. Over the years, my kids have tried to forge my signature – anything from lunchtime passes to homework-not-done excuses.

    Not one of them has got it right. But these tries aren’t in the legal arena.

    It would be something else if Canavan’s mother even got close to forging his signature.

    SO LET’S SEE THE DOCUMENTS.

    And let the experts begin.

  14. chinda63
    Is it possible that Matteo Canavani’s mother didn’t tell him about the ballot papers because she used his papers to vote twice?

    Hmmm …

    Well, there is a history of fraud in the family. 🙂

  15. It’s all been said before, but FFS. Imagine. Mum applies for citizenship for herself and her son, only 25 poor little thing, maybe forging documents, but doesn’t talk about it. Ever. Not over a cup of tea. Not over a Campari soda. Never. Then she hides the mail, all of it, destroying all evidence.

    Either this is the biggest load of bullshit ever, or Mum’s got some mighty dark secret.

  16. Just thinking.

    With the recent changes to the blog,

    are we witnessing the exposure of some closet Conservatives amongst the PB ranks? 🙂

  17. Two things:

    1. I detect from the commentary here that the ‘correct’ way to use these new arrangements is to have the newest post at the top and scroll upwards but I am receiving the posts with the newest at the bottom and am scrolling downwards. How do I change that?

    2. The term ‘nested comments’ presumably means where you indent a part, or all, of someone’s post into your own post then reply to it. If I have got that right, how is that achieved under this new system? Is it still done with ‘blockquote’?

    If anyone can assist I will be eternally grateful (assuming I live that long).

  18. Full scale war at the White House :

    In just his fifth day on the job, Donald Trump’s new White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci has already decided to set the entire administration on fire. Late this evening, Scaramucci announced via Twitter that he’s asking the FBI and Department of Justice to open a felony investigation into his own boss, White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus. Somehow this is really happening.

    it’s clear Donald Trump’s White House has now slipped fully into its own civil war. We’re still awaiting Reince Priebus’ response to Scaramucci’s felony accusation.

  20. Mum applies for citizenship for herself and her son, only 25 poor little thing, maybe forging documents, but doesn’t talk about it. Ever. Not over a cup of tea. Not over a Campari soda. Never. Then she hides the mail, all of it, destroying all evidence.

    Yes it’s pretty unbelievable unless mother and son aren’t close and rarely speak.

    Is his mum still alive?

  21. Itza

    “over a Campari and soda. Never. Then she hides the mail, all of it, destroying all evidence.”

    Nearly lost my cafe over that one.

    Yeah right. It’s so credible. NOT.

    Whichever way he tries to shake it, it does not pass the pub test, let alone the sniff test.

    Does he think we came up in the shower his fraudulent father did?

  22. Darn
    Two things:

    1. …

    2. The term ‘nested comments’ presumably means where you indent a part, or all, of someone’s post into your own post then reply to it. If I have got that right, how is that achieved under this new system? Is it still done with ‘blockquote’?

    The nested comments are attached to the original post, so they soon get lost in the aether. It was one of the first features that William rightly disabled.

  24. Barney in Go Dau @ #615 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 2:32 pm

    Just thinking.

    With the recent changes to the blog,

    are we witnessing the exposure of some closet Conservatives amongst the PB ranks? 🙂

    Took me a while to work out who BigD was. If that’s what you’re asking.

    OTOH, I must admit I’m finding it hard to go from bottom to top.

    But, at least, as most people think, I’m trying.

  26. (reformatting)

    Confessions
    Is his mum still alive?

    Apparently yes, and in a huge tizzy fit about it all. I see lots of shouting and hand waving and pasta throwing.

  27. K2

    I am not using add ons. The site should be good enough without them. Newest are posted first and you scroll down to see older comments. Its different if you enable oldest comments first.

    The point is good design needs zero add ons as the site should be useable without them.

  29. [The Cleary principle really doesn’t help here. The strict words of s44(i) remain, qualified so far only by the extra words the court inserted which give an out to dual citizens who have taken reasonable steps to renounce. Canavan has taken no such steps. The question the High Court will now have to consider is whether it needs to put even more words into the section to deal with a situation where citizenship has been acquired, not through the unilateral act of a foreign state, but through the meddling of a well-meaning third party. And whether, in that scenario, ignorance is, in fact, an excuse.
    When I put it that way, it looks a bit of a stretch. I’m not at all sure this is going to go as Matteo would prefer.
    As to whether s44(i) should be amended by referendum, well yes, obviously. It’s a mess.]

    Crikey today. MICHAEL BRADLEY
    Managing Partner, Marque Lawyers

  30. We’re moving soon from Mt Eliza to Ballarat, both properties are on the NBN. Rang our provider to ask if we could “reserve” a new landline phone number now for Ballarat, so that we can tell people (overseas relatives mainly) in advance.

    Uh, no need. As it’s NBN to NBN, it’s VOIP, so we can take the number with us.

  31. Urban Wronski‏
    @UrbanWronski

    4 Corners program is “trying to take your water off you”, Barnaby Joyce tells farmers today in Shepparton, a maliciously irresponsible lie.

    (And ungrammatcal, too.)

  33. Guyts

    This site’s only worked, for me, since I added C+

    Otherwise totally unuseable.

    Different strokes for different folks.

    Shoulda, coulda, woulda, doesn’t matter.

  36. K2

    Thats why I view the site as unfinished. I agree with others that testing should be done before this is inflicted on us. Then the only changes should be those William makes as Administrator of his own blog.

  38. guytaur @ #627 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 2:49 pm

    K2

    I am not using add ons. The site should be good enough without them. Newest are posted first and you scroll down to see older comments. Its different if you enable oldest comments first.

    The point is good design needs zero add ons as the site should be useable without them.

    Strange – newest last for me. As before?

  39. guytaur @ #636 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 2:59 pm

    K2

    Thats why I view the site as unfinished. I agree with others that testing should be done before this is inflicted on us. Then the only changes should be those William makes as Administrator of his own blog.

    You are just being precious.
    Others accept the reality as it is and use AR’s add-on to improve the situation

  40. Kezza:

    What’s strange is that the site works in different ways for different people using the same browser, and no add-ons.

    That really is weird. I might try chrome on my phone and see if that looks different from the laptop.

  41. Adrian check under comments box. Newest should be in Green . If it is it means you have an add on reversing the comments order

  42. bemused

    I do not need an add on to view any other site. Thats not me being precious. Thats the designers of the blog not being user friendly

  44. C@t

    Apart from being Scum, I think ScoMo = Dumb would be accurate, too.

    Apart from Little Johnny Howard I can’t think of a more inept Aus Treasurer.

    Is he still Treasurer?

  46. kezza2

    KayJay

    How’s it going for you and your relatives?

    I know you have been very busy helping them out.

    It’s great to see you posting again.

    My sister-in-law’s cancer is into terminal velocity. It’s so unfair, isn’t it?

    Very sad about your sister-in-law.
    I spend many hours talking to my sister-in-law who has had much time and anguish with pancreatic cancer together with various other problems arising from the surgery and such additional benefits such as Transient ischaemic attack with subsequent memory problems.

    My nephew has been the recipient of the government (lower case g) attack on the poor as well.

    We do the best we can and hope for the best.

    Peace sign for you and fresh coffee for me as I have just returned from my exciting weekly trip to the local bread shop.

    ☮ ☕

  47. lizzie
    comment image:large

    Morrison is lying (doesn’t understand finances, but he’s TREASURER!)

    Of course calling him a liar is based solely on the premise that he has a basic understanding of Economics and how Government finances work.

  48. William, if you’re having a go at me, I don’t mean to suggest that I need an add-on to view the site, I needed an add-on to make it useable for me.

    S’okay?

  49. C@tmomma
    and Son

    I am extremely pleased that your son is doing well. I envisage that your state of mind will have improved in like measure.

    Nasogastric tubes should be retained for use only with enemies of the state (such as the current government) to enable forced empathy transplants.

Comments are closed.

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