Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After two successive stronger results for Labor, Essential Research is back on Team 53-47.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has recovered a point in the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which returns to 53-47 in favour of Labor after two weeks at 54-46. After accounting for an apparent transpositional error in the report, I believe the primary votes are Coalition 38% (up two), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one). The poll also finds that 56% approve of the new national security ministry, with 18% disapproving; 45% expect it will strengthen national security, 28% think it will make little difference and 8% think it will weaken it; and 45% registering concern that Peter Dutton will have control over all security services, with 35% not concerned. The report provides an incomplete account of questions on an emissions intensity scheme taxing pollution above a certain level (54% are in favour) and the National Broadband Network (48% of the 40% who have it say it beats their previous service, but only 19% say it is much better, and 51% say it’s about the same or worse). Full results should be with us later today.

In other news, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you’ll find that I’ve had a lot to say about the Greens recently, in a report on the succession to Scott Ludlam’s Western Australian seat that may be showing its age; an account of the deficiencies of Section 44 (see also Laurie Oakes); and a look askance at conservative suggestions that the party is, uh, “cooked”.

UPDATE: Full report here. We also have bonus Newspoll questions on Tony Abbott, which find 58% favouring Malcolm Turnbull on “best values and leadership credentials” against 23% for Abbott, and pose a question on his future in politics that unusually doesn’t feature an option for him to leave it.

NOTE ON NEW COMMENTS ARCHITECTURE: Regular visitors will shortly notice that the design of the comments section has been overhauled. This has mostly been done for site performance reasons, to which it has made an immediate and massive difference. As you can see, there are lots of new features that people have long asked for. If we can get used to reverse chronological comments, I think it will prove to be a great outcome. A tip for acclimatising yourself here: you do not need to refresh the page to see new comments, and you will cause yourself an annoyance if you try. You will see, at the top of the comments thread, a green “x new comments” button when new comments appear – all you need to do is press this and they will slot into view. Also, for emoji that work, see here.

One way or another though, this is how it will be for the next few days, after which the situation may be reviewed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,397 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Vic:

    PvO was very critical of Ludlam and Waters and the Greens. Obviously it’s a different story when it’s a coalition senator!

  3. @jenauthor – posts that get truncated have their line breaks removed unless you click ‘read more’, in which case they come back

  4. Zoomster
    Check at the top of the page to see if “new follow up comments” is selected under “Notify”. That’s my setting and I’m not getting emails.

  5. OK, so the page thing, which is a drop down bar under the Leave a Reply message and above the comment box, when you click on a page, for example ‘Page 9’, it adds all the comments back to Page 9 and stops there.

    Hope that helps.

  9. Just notice Essential’s terrible questioning.

    Q. To address climate change, would you support or oppose setting a clean energy target (CET) which means that a set percentage of energy would have to be generated from clean sources (e.g. wind, solar, etc.)?

    They just described a RET, not a CET. They should also mention that dirty sources such as gas and maybe even coal are also (partially) eligible for CET certificates.

    Q. To address climate change, would you support or oppose establishing an emissions intensity scheme (EIS) – which means that pollution over a certain level would be taxed?

    No, that’s not what it means at all. An EIS is not a tax, it raises $0 revenue. Money paid by polluting generators does not go to the government under an EIS.

  10. ABC Great Southern
    27 mins ·
    PM TURNBULL TOURING ALBANY
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will visit Albany next week, at the request of Federal MP Rick Wilson.
    It’s understood Mr Turnbull will arrive on Wednesday, and visit a number of locations including a local school and the National ANZAC Centre.
    The City of Albany will hold a civic reception for the Prime Minister later in the day, and it’s expected he will meet with newly returned solo sailor Lisa Blair.

  11. [zoomster
    Back to having to refresh to see new comments – which I thought was the problem the whole site revamp was meant to solve.]

    That’s the same for me – I didn’t realise what was happening at first.

    Anyway, still no comment from Mr Trumble about Canavan? Perhaps he is in shock.

  13. Poor old Barnaby & Canavan seem very confused by this Italian citizenship thing.

    It’s not hard! All children of Italian citizens are either citizens at birth (in Italy) or if born elsewhere eligible to become an Italian citizen.

    So when Canavan’s mother applied and was accepted he became eligible as a consequence. The form his mother competed possibly asked if she, as an applicant, also had children as if she was accepted for citizenship, they also would be eligible to apply.

  15. Thanks BK.

    It looks like you might need to add paragraph tags with the new comment system.

    Edit: A blank line should suffice.
    #whitespacematters

    Edit 2: Editing strips out HTML formatted content.

  16. Having latest comments first and no easy way of tracing older comments has the effect of reducing almost completely discussion about multiple items which Poll Bludger previously was very good for. It can work on a site where comments and commentators are relatively but will reduce PB effectiveness. Will lead to fairly superficial commentary. Will also reduce somewhat the narky commentary that occasionally/regularly appears but that is also controllable better in other ways.

  19. It would be interesting to see if one of our intrepid journalists could track down the forms that must have been filled out for Mr Canavan’s ‘Mum’ to apply for his citizenship of Italy. It would be remarkable that a 24 or 25 year old could become a citizen without signing some document.

  21. CTar1

    Antony Green has a rather peculiar article on this. He doesn’t think the provision in S44 on being a citizen of another country applies to Carnarvon, but does to Waters and Ludlam, on the dubious grounds that they were born in foreign countries and Carnarvon’s mum made him a citizen. I would have thought becoming a citizen of another country in adulthood implies a conscious choice, and Carnarvon would be more dubious than Waters.

    He then argues that the second part of S44 (eligibility to the same rights as a citizen) might apply to Carnarvon, and thus anyone who is eligible to be a citizen of another country is in trouble.

    He’s right that the HC hasn’t made a clear ruling on the meaning of this part of the Section. However, the consensus of opinion seems to be that that bit means you have the same rights as a citizen without being one – for example, someone who has renounced their UK citizenship may still be receiving a pension from the UK.

  27. Where’s the Dawn Patrol? The cartoons are there, but nothing else. I’m bereft.

    I have no page numbers, no time stamps (although I can see C@t’s times, so, you’ll have to keep posting C@t), still thumbs up and down, no edit function, this is holy crap.

    To top it off, I’ve been locked out of my email account (again!!!!), and I have no idea if it’s filling up with notifications.

    why, oh why, don’t they test this stuff elsewhere?

    Also, if it was to save bandwidth, what’s with having to refresh to read latest comments. Makes no fkn sense, sorry William.

    Using Chrome and Win10

  33. kezza2,
    I don’t have the thumbs up/thumbs down function any more but I have a ‘Quote’ button and Pages in a drop down bar. The only time stamps I have are the how long ago ones. No link or whtever the other button was beside it either.

    Emojis are a lottery!

  35. Does Malcolm Trumble REALLY think that saying nothing about Canavani will keep him above the fray and not tarnish his Prime Ministerial image!?!

    No. It just makes him look sleazy and too gutless to prosecute a case by giving his opinion. He is a lawyer isn’t he?

  36. Whilst I was against making any of the previous lot pay back their salaries, if/when Canavan is dragged kicking and screaming from the senate, he should be forced to repay any salary earned from 26/07/2017 through the day of his departure.

  38. C@t,
    It sounds like you’ve loaded a third party add-on, so most of what you’re talking about is not part of the new system.

    It would be good to clarify that because it seems you are talking about two different things at the same time. 🙂

  39. Pell is in court today. It is about time. He can face the charges and, applying the presumption of innocence, defend himself. The final verdict I await with interest, and my hope for a resolution for the victims of abuse by the clergy.

  40. don @ #1045 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 6:39 am

    ar, this is what I get when I go to that link you provided.

    Chrome tells me that version is already loaded.

    What differences should I see?

    Well, since images work now, you should see roughly:

    I can’t see a preview button, and there are no pages.

    Sounds like maybe you have the plugin installed, but not enabled?

    I find pages very useful for navigating, as well as a time stamp rather than how long ago something was posted. Is there any possibility of either of those?

    The first is already done, the second is easily possible, yes.

    I’d rather see a comment in full, rather than the ‘more’ link.

    Also already done. If you see a ‘Read More’ link, your plugin isn’t running.

  43. But ‘fess, that would involve the Nanny State prying into our bedrooms.

    [A good question. With 71 women murdered in 2016, 80% of them by their male partners, compared with 6 people killed in the last 20 years in terrorist related incidents, where is our super-sized ministry for tackling domestic violence?
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-and-views/opinion/where-is-the-super-ministry-for-tackling-the-real-threat-to-australians–domestic-violence-20170725-gxibon.html%5D

  45. Fess,
    That is a timely and important point. I do not see a super-ministry with armed special forces to keep women safe in their marriages and partnerships. When are men suspected of domestic family terror going to be arrested and held for days/weeks while their behaviour is investigated? When are long sentences that put dv perps out of circulation for years and subject to de-radicalisation programs?

    When are men at risk of becoming family terrorists going to be watched by our spooks, with all their electronic exchanges monitored? When are the armed squads going to kick their doors down and arrest them on the suspicion of organising acts of family terrorism?

    How about even half the money spent on the activities of the super-ministry being spent on preventing family terrorism and treating the victims?

    Where are the ten-flag, armoured backdrop, lower-voice-register, serious pressers denouncing family terror?

  46. Barney:

    If we devoted even half the resources currently directed at preventing terror attacks and locking up asylum seekers in third party countries to preventing family violence, imagine the inroads that could be made towards saving Australian lives…

  50. confessions @ #1186 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 9:59 am

    A good question. With 71 women murdered in 2016, 80% of them by their male partners, compared with 6 people killed in the last 20 years in terrorist related incidents, where is our super-sized ministry for tackling domestic violence?
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-and-views/opinion/where-is-the-super-ministry-for-tackling-the-real-threat-to-australians–domestic-violence-20170725-gxibon.html

    ‘Fess, the visuals of having Malcolm Trumble standing at a lectern with Battered Women around him rather than balls out Army guys bristling with the latest killing machines and arms, just wouldn’t pass the Tradie Sniff Test these things seem to pass through.

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