Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After two successive stronger results for Labor, Essential Research is back on Team 53-47.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has recovered a point in the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which returns to 53-47 in favour of Labor after two weeks at 54-46. After accounting for an apparent transpositional error in the report, I believe the primary votes are Coalition 38% (up two), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one). The poll also finds that 56% approve of the new national security ministry, with 18% disapproving; 45% expect it will strengthen national security, 28% think it will make little difference and 8% think it will weaken it; and 45% registering concern that Peter Dutton will have control over all security services, with 35% not concerned. The report provides an incomplete account of questions on an emissions intensity scheme taxing pollution above a certain level (54% are in favour) and the National Broadband Network (48% of the 40% who have it say it beats their previous service, but only 19% say it is much better, and 51% say it’s about the same or worse). Full results should be with us later today.

In other news, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you’ll find that I’ve had a lot to say about the Greens recently, in a report on the succession to Scott Ludlam’s Western Australian seat that may be showing its age; an account of the deficiencies of Section 44 (see also Laurie Oakes); and a look askance at conservative suggestions that the party is, uh, “cooked”.

UPDATE: Full report here. We also have bonus Newspoll questions on Tony Abbott, which find 58% favouring Malcolm Turnbull on “best values and leadership credentials” against 23% for Abbott, and pose a question on his future in politics that unusually doesn’t feature an option for him to leave it.

NOTE ON NEW COMMENTS ARCHITECTURE: Regular visitors will shortly notice that the design of the comments section has been overhauled. This has mostly been done for site performance reasons, to which it has made an immediate and massive difference. As you can see, there are lots of new features that people have long asked for. If we can get used to reverse chronological comments, I think it will prove to be a great outcome. A tip for acclimatising yourself here: you do not need to refresh the page to see new comments, and you will cause yourself an annoyance if you try. You will see, at the top of the comments thread, a green “x new comments” button when new comments appear – all you need to do is press this and they will slot into view. Also, for emoji that work, see here.

One way or another though, this is how it will be for the next few days, after which the situation may be reviewed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,397 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 28
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  2. Just logged on with Safari, lots of things working now. Comments I made in Opera have disappeared into the ether.

    I wonder if this will appear, posted on Safari?

    Yes. No comment numbers, but at least a timestamp.

    And an edit function, hallelujah.

  3. How about even half the money spent on the activities of the super-ministry being spent on preventing family terrorism and treating the victims?

    Yep, totally agree with you Puff.

  4. In case it has not been posted yet. With this format hard to tell.

    Gillian Triggs has accused the Australian government of being “ideologically opposed to human rights”, saying Australia’s human rights are “regressing on almost every front”.

    Triggs has used the last week of her tenure as human rights commissioner to say human rights in Australia were going backwards for almost all relevant groups. “Whether it’s women, Indigenous, homeless and most of course asylum seekers and refugees,” she told ABC Radio National on Wednesday morning.

    Triggs said the Coalition government held some responsibility for the regression. “I think it’s partly because we have a government that is ideologically opposed to human rights,” she said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/26/gillian-triggs-australian-government-ideologically-opposed-to-human-rights

  5. Pell avoided the second round of Royal Commission cross examination where the rules are not in favour of Pell. Cos the tame doctors in the Vatican told him he had a crook ticker.

    Now for the court action, where the rules are very much more in favour of Pell, his ticker had a miraculous recovery.

  6. Puff,

    It’s interesting the political mentality here.

    While just the threat of a random terrorist event is pursued with all vigour and resources, the actual targeted abuse and harm of domestic violence is virtually ignored.

  9. I’m willing to give a tentative thumbs up to the site.
    Pages would almost certainly seal the deal. Minor issue with time stamp. My earlier comment appears to be on daylight savings time. Or probably a seniors moment!

  10. Puff, the Magic Dragon. @ #1216 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 9:41 am

    Fess,
    That is a timely and important point. I do not see a super-ministry with armed special forces to keep women safe in their marriages and partnerships. When are men suspected of domestic family terror going to be arrested and held for days/weeks while their behaviour is investigated? When are long sentences that put dv perps out of circulation for years and subject to de-radicalisation programs?

    When are men at risk of becoming family terrorists going to be watched by our spooks, with all their electronic exchanges monitored? When are the armed squads going to kick their doors down and arrest them on the suspicion of organising acts of family terrorism?

    How about even half the money spent on the activities of the super-ministry being spent on preventing family terrorism and treating the victims?

    Where are the ten-flag, armoured backdrop, lower-voice-register, serious pressers denouncing family terror?

    I used to work in a family counselling service.

    You could always tell which blokes were on court-ordered counselling, as opposed to those who acknowledged they had a problem and went willingly.

    The former were surly generally, but particularly rude to the admin staff when it came time to pay the bill.

    One got the distinct impression they needed a lot more than just friendly counselling …

  11. If there is a read more, the paragraphing/formatting is non-existent until you read more, as shown with chindra63’s post at 10:27

  14. ‘fess,

    I agree completely.

    My sarcasm font isn’t working.

    I was just throwing out the obvious objections of the Civil Libertarians.

    “If we devoted even half the resources currently directed at preventing terror attacks and locking up asylum seekers in third party countries to preventing family violence, imagine the inroads that could be made towards saving Australian lives…”

  15. Response to Gillian Triggs article

    samanthamaiden: That is actual horseshit. I mean they might disagree on specifics but surely that is a ridiculous thing to say twitter.com/srpeatling/sta…

    Then First Dog
    firstdogonmoon: finally blocked sam maiden seriously i cannot take much more of this

  17. Trump Careens Towards A Full Blown Breakdown And Proclaims He Should Be On Mount Rushmore

    An out of control Trump tried to put himself on Mount Rushmore at a rally in Ohio.

    No other president in my lifetime has suggested or asked an audience if they belong on Mount Rushmore.

    With multiple investigations surrounding his presidency, Donald Trump has a better chance of ending up in a Supermax than he does of ever being on Mount Rushmore.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/25/trump-careens-full-blown-breakdown-proclaims-mount-rushmore.html

  18. ‘Sucks to be you, Jefferson!’: Internet explodes after Trump says he’s more presidential than anyone ‘except Lincoln’

    “With the exception of the late, great Abraham Lincoln, I can be more presidential than any president that’s ever held this office,” Trump claimed.

    “It’s real easy,” Trump added.

    The internet was not impressed:

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/sucks-to-be-you-jefferson-internet-explodes-after-trump-says-hes-more-presidential-than-anyone-except-lincoln/

  20. Fox News guest: Trump ‘can’t get over his anger’ at Sessions for recusing himself in Russia probe

    Fox News guest suggested that President Donald Trump may be mentally unable to move beyond Attorney General Jeff Sessions recusing himself from the Russian investigation.

    “He seems to be unable to get beyond that and just beyond the basic anger that he has about that whole situation,” Associated Press White House reporter Julie Bykowicz told Sheppard Smith.

    If you’re Jeff Sessions, you’ve got to be evaluating your job on a minute by minute basis here,” Bykowicz concluded.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/fox-news-guest-trump-cant-get-over-his-anger-at-sessions-for-recusing-himself-in-russia-probe/

  24. political_alert: Greens Senator @sarahinthesen8 will respond to “the abuse of the Murray Darling Basin Plan” at 10:45am, Adelaide #auspol

  26. William – FWIW – Catching up on overnight posts many comments, the same ones appearing up to 3 times in the blog.

    Add to your list ? if you are keeping one.

  28. On the Canavan circus, Barnaby had this to say:

    “I think it was back in 2005 and any person with memories of things in 2005 has to be given some latitude.”

    Strange that he did not apply same rules to Julia Gillard going back 10 years before that. But maybe that attitude only applies to Coalition members, given how much more weak-minded they are.

  30. ” It’s to do with the fact that about 70% of Crikey’s bandwidth was being taken up by non-paying blog commenters hitting “refresh” on Poll Bludger every 30 seconds.”

    I hadn’t realized I was such a drain on the system. Sorry about that. Will not keep burdening Crikey’s limited resources. Probably drop in on occasion nearer t0 elections for just a bit of Bludging.

  31. I would be very please to know what Musrum thinks of the new commenting system.
    If he can restore CCCP under this new system I would be even more pleased.

  33. Fantastic article from BK’s list today in the New Matilda:

    In the US, billionaires like Ross Perot and the Koch brothers championed anti-government welfare policies directed at the poor while downplaying or outright denying their dependency on the family welfare bequeathed to them by their rich parents. Similarly Donald Trump referred to his large inheritance as a “small loan” of one million dollars, barely enough to keep him in tanning solution and call girls for a month; and Malcolm Turnbull sought to obscure the importance of his substantial inheritance by scrubbing all references to the wealth of his late father and repeatedly referring to the fact that at one stage as a child, he was forced to endure the depravations of living in a flat.

    https://newmatilda.com/2017/07/25/donnie-and-mal-two-sides-of-the-stupid-idle-rich-coin/

    A must read!

  34. confessions @ #1220 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 10:41 am

    Possum Comitatus‏ @Pollytics 15h15 hours ago
    My Mum Made me an Italian sounds like the worst SBS comedy

    😆

    Just trying out the quote function which is very neat. And the preview function even more neater.

    So I’d better add the silly schoolyard joke about the message on the toilet wall which read ‘my mother made me a homosexual’ to which had been under-scribed ‘if I give her the wool will she make me one too’. I know, I know.

  35. I’m not at all happy with this new format. Using Firefox & Windows 10, when trying to get back to the comments after clicking on any hyperlink, I’m always taken to the bottom of the first (latest) page of comments and completely lose my place. It’s making the reading of BK’s Dawn Patrol impossible.

  37. I like the new refresh system as we had it yesterday/last night. As for reading old comments having page numbers is common with this style of commenting as well. I am very much in favour of this new format.

    Its much better. Other than page numbers the only addition I want is emoji’s being used as per universal standard code.

  40. William, let me keep this polite.

    Can you please have a chat with Crikey management about the quality of their software and about the simple expedient of testing changes before putting them online?

  42. I’m using Safari 10.1.1 on Mac OS 10.12.5. I’ve never used any add-ons or plugins (?). Is there anything else I should use: CCCP(?) SquirrelGrip(?) 🙂 to get the ‘full’ experience? The page doesn’t refresh for me and their is no numbering on the comments. Otherwise, I quite like the new format, especially the collapsing of long posts (often containing large slabs of re-posts).

  44. Actually quite like the new comment format.

    The button to bring up new comments rather than refresh the page not there now though??

    And some kind of shortcut for quoting rather than HTML tags and for emoji would be good.

    Bit like the square brackets thing we used to have. If musrum will be kind and indulge us with any further CCCP development maybe look at that for those who choose to use it??

    Am using Chrome, Win 7 when at work and Win10 when at home.

  46. I see the Crikey pixies have restored the wordpress absolute timestamp.
    I would suggest also re-enabling pagination.
    @William Bowe: In WP Admin > Settings > Discussion

    (obviously use a number bigger than 5). Ticking the box at the start will override the WPDISCUZ ‘Load More’ or Infinite scroll features. This would make it much easier for people to go back in time to a point they were previously reading from.

    Inside Admin > Comments > WPDISCUZ > Settings
    Also the live update feature here may provide a more ‘premium’ experience for subscribers, while saving bandwidth on guest readers

    Also Enabling ‘quick tags’ will show some simple html markup options, which might be quite handy for people to build their blockquotes, open & close tags work quite nicely actually.

    Will continue to play around a bit in my sandbox to see what else may help.

  47. Now for a less polite comment. Can someone please put the hamsters out of their misery? Lets go through this.

    New features? Fine. Pictures? Fine.

    But, I had to click “more comments” several times to get to BK’s news links and when I got to them I discovered the formatting is unreadable until you click on “read more” and then the formatting fixes itself. Geez..

    Also, a link copy is a bit cheap and nasty. Many boards have a feature that allow you to quote text with an automatic link. The way its done here, you have to click on the link, copy the link text, start a new post, copy the link text and then hunt (again) for the post you want to reply to and use copy/paste to get a quote to work. Urgh!

    I’ve yet to get the courage to try out the mobile version (holds nose).

  50. @cud chewer, I agree with the complaint regarding ‘read more’ breaking the formatting. It is rather ugly… May be better for the admins to disable it. I think by default it shows after 100 words. Given BK’s posts I’d prefer to see it disabled completely…
    AR’s new extension sorts out the quotation features

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