Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After two successive stronger results for Labor, Essential Research is back on Team 53-47.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has recovered a point in the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which returns to 53-47 in favour of Labor after two weeks at 54-46. After accounting for an apparent transpositional error in the report, I believe the primary votes are Coalition 38% (up two), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one). The poll also finds that 56% approve of the new national security ministry, with 18% disapproving; 45% expect it will strengthen national security, 28% think it will make little difference and 8% think it will weaken it; and 45% registering concern that Peter Dutton will have control over all security services, with 35% not concerned. The report provides an incomplete account of questions on an emissions intensity scheme taxing pollution above a certain level (54% are in favour) and the National Broadband Network (48% of the 40% who have it say it beats their previous service, but only 19% say it is much better, and 51% say it’s about the same or worse). Full results should be with us later today.

In other news, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you’ll find that I’ve had a lot to say about the Greens recently, in a report on the succession to Scott Ludlam’s Western Australian seat that may be showing its age; an account of the deficiencies of Section 44 (see also Laurie Oakes); and a look askance at conservative suggestions that the party is, uh, “cooked”.

UPDATE: Full report here. We also have bonus Newspoll questions on Tony Abbott, which find 58% favouring Malcolm Turnbull on “best values and leadership credentials” against 23% for Abbott, and pose a question on his future in politics that unusually doesn’t feature an option for him to leave it.

NOTE ON NEW COMMENTS ARCHITECTURE: Regular visitors will shortly notice that the design of the comments section has been overhauled. This has mostly been done for site performance reasons, to which it has made an immediate and massive difference. As you can see, there are lots of new features that people have long asked for. If we can get used to reverse chronological comments, I think it will prove to be a great outcome. A tip for acclimatising yourself here: you do not need to refresh the page to see new comments, and you will cause yourself an annoyance if you try. You will see, at the top of the comments thread, a green “x new comments” button when new comments appear – all you need to do is press this and they will slot into view. Also, for emoji that work, see here.

One way or another though, this is how it will be for the next few days, after which the situation may be reviewed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,397 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Trump Family Crumbles As Kushner Tries To Save Himself By Blaming Russia Meeting On Trump Jr.

    Jared Kushner tried to save himself from the Russia scandal by blaming everything related to the meeting with Russians on Donald Trump Jr.

    The family strategy looks like since Trump Jr. isn’t in the administration. They are going to try to pin everything on him. In other words, Fredo Trump is going to take the fall for the family. Jared Kushner’s defense is that he didn’t know anything about any Russians, which isn’t likely to hold up depending on what evidence the FBI and Congressional investigators have, but the Trump and Kushner have put up a wall of denial, which won’t hold up long as the Russia scandal isn’t going away.

  2. Fox’s Shep Smith just ripped a big hole in Jared Kushner’s excuse for Russian meeting

    Kushner has insisted “he didn’t even realize what that infamous meeting at Trump Tower was about,” explained Jonathan Lemire of the Associated Press.

    “Okay, hang on,” Smith interrupted. “There’s an email, and at the top of that email there is a subject line — let’s look at that subject line. Here it is, this is an email from Donald Trump Jr, sent on Wednesday the 8th of June at noon or so. The subject line: ‘Russia — Clinton — private and confidential.’”

    “So what he is saying is he didn’t read deep into the email and we are to believe that he didn’t read the subject line?” he added.

  3. ‘Either incompetence — or Russia has a lot of influence’: Ex-FBI agent troubled by Kushner statement

    Jared Kushner released an 11-page statement detailing his contacts with Russia before Inauguration Day but denying campaign collusion — but former FBI special agent Clint Watts said the document raises as many questions as it answers.

    “Look at the leverage that Russia has on us,” Watts said. “I mean, both in terms of this and if you go back to the G20, we’re now going to leave Russian account of versions of meetings and contacts, and they seem more reliable than our country. That puts us in a dangerous position. When you look through this, it’s either incompetence or they have a lot influence over this administration.”

  4. CNN analyst rips Kushner’s statement to shreds: He’s going to solve the Middle East but can’t fill out forms

    A legal analyst for CNN on Monday observed that Jared Kushner — Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior advisor — had apparently had trouble with simple political activities even though he has been tasked with fixing everything from the Middle East to the federal government.

  5. Who is next to jump ship of the Trumptanic ???? – Jeff Sessions …..or maybe even Rex Tillerson ????? …… may not be enough to save their skins …

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher on the potential for a China/India nuclear war. A nice way to start the day!
    The proposed F6 Extension toll road from Sydney to Wollongong would charge about $10 for each one-way journey, according to a leaked planning document. Ouch!
    Michael Pascoe reckons that despite his rhetoric Bill Shorten will not get around to taxing family trusts.
    Extreme El Nino events will more than double in frequency, even with the most ambitious goals to curtail global warming, exposing large regions to severe droughts and placing coral reefs in peril, a team of scientists including Australians say.
    Sam Crosby writes that regardless of what happens today, the best leaders of tomorrow will be those who do not jump at every loud noise, but instead understand how to construct a tune from them. Quite a good article.
    Another big business and lobbying rort – sugars in food and the Health Star Rating.
    Morrison pooh poohs the rise in inequality.
    The SMH editorial is unhappy that the NSW has scrapped “follow the dollar” reforms.
    Yet another loss in court for J Edgar Tuber!

  7. Section 2 . . .

    Jenna Price justifiably piles into the Quadrant magazine.
    Jared Kushner is in deep doggy do.
    Kushner’s statement raises new questions about how Donald Trump could have entrusted someone with so little foreign policy experience with such a powerful international portfolio.
    Former National Intelligence Director James Clapper told conference attendees on Friday that he sometimes wonders whether President Donald Trump’s goal is to make “Russia great again.” Clapper, alongside former CIA chief John Brennan, appeared before an audience at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado. The discussion, which multiple news outletsdescribed as wide-ranging, included some sobering criticisms of the president for downplaying Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election.
    More 7-Eleven transgression.
    Michael West looks at how the New Zealanders do better than us when it comes to the PBS.
    Users of the $40 billion-plus ¬National Broadband Network are receiving peak-time connection speeds as low as 1/500th of the ¬service they are paying for, sparking complaints the nation’s biggest infrastructure project is failing to deliver the promised digital transformation. More from The Australian on this scandal. Google.
    Meanwhile The National Broadband Network (NBN) admits it has an image problem and is considering forcing telecommunication companies to guarantee a minimum level of service for customers as part of a review of its controversial pricing model to head off growing criticism about the project’s internet speeds. Google.
    David Wroe on the UNHCR’s claim that the government had agreed to resettle some refugees in Australia.

  8. Section 3 . . .

    What a pathetic situation! Momentum is building within the Coalition for a postal vote plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with former prime minister Tony Abbott indicating support for the idea for the first time.
    More than 40 per cent of the 795,000 students in NSW’s public schools do not list any religion on their enrolment form, according to new data that comes as parents and teachers push for an overhaul of the strict rules that leave students with “dead time” if they do not attend scripture. Isn’t it time for us to realise that we are in the 21st century?–new-data-20170724-gxhi58.html
    The court in William Street is preparing for a big day tomorrow as George Pell fronts.
    The outgoing Human Rights Commission president, Gillian Triggs, has said the creation of a new “super ministry” of home affairs was part of a hastening trend towards centralised and unchallengeable government power.
    This is health care in the US in 2017. And the Yanks honestly believe they have the best in the world! Google.
    Are the first ladies of other countries providing the women’s fightback against Trump that we’ve all been waiting for?
    White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer has resigned — what will entertainers do in his absence?,10530
    Jennifer Hewett explores the potential for energy to trigger a political implosion. Google.
    Australian gambling operators are expressing interest in a new style of “skill-based” machines more like video games that are marketed at younger punters who are unlikely to play the traditional, push-button pokies. This is all we need!

  9. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1

    Susie O’Brien has had her fill of faux allergy fraudsters clogging up our cafes and restaurants with their demands for dishes that are gluten-free, wheat-free, tomato-free or dairy-free. Google.
    A 5% drop in measles, mumps and rubella vaccinations could cause a threefold increase of measles cases, costing the public sector millions, US study shows. Could there be a connection to the link above perhaps?

    Cathy Wilcox and today’s quick news cycle.

    Matt Golding reprises the Democracy Sausage.

    Broelman on four year parliamentary terms.

    Zanetti also looks at four year terms.

  10. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    David Rowe’s take on the electoral cycle.

    David Pope also has a say on it.
    Class warfare in the air.

    Pat Campbell with the Coalition’s energy policy cooker.
    Ron Tandberg gives us Trumpcare.
    Matt Golding being unkind to Xenophon.

    Pat Clement has Sean Spicer pondering over a brighter future.
    Alan Moir with Coalition unity.

  11. grimace @ #179 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 10:16 am

    I need a little help with Tampermonkey and CCCP.
    I’ve installed it on my work computer and can see comment time stamps, but not comment numbers and I can’t see the quote comment button.
    Could someone more knowledgeable point out where I’ve gone wrong?

    The whole thing is in the realms of magic.

    There is no sense that I can make of it. It seems to be a combination of the particular computer you use and the browser.

    CCCP works perfectly on my Mac laptop running Chrome. I cannot even log in to PB using my desktop Mac in Chrome, let alone install CCCP.

    On my desktop, in order to log in to PB, I have to use Opera, which has a very clean interface, but there is no CCCP script made for Opera, as far as I can tell.

    Good luck!

  12. Posters featuring what Truffles said about the NBN should go up too remind people just who to blame for selling them such a lemon

    Turnbull back to ‘demolish’ NBN
    September 14, 2010
    “Where is any of the evidence that would justify this investment,” Mr Turnbull told ABC Radio on Tuesday evening.

    Demolition man Turnbull goes after NBN
    On Tuesday, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott ordered Mr Turnbull to “demolish” the NBN

  13. MSNBC Beat Fox News For An Entire Week For The First Time In Cable News History

    MSNBC has also benefited from the fact that many of the biggest stories related to the Trump/Russia scandal have broken in the evening. The Fox News era of cable news dominance is over. Rachel Maddow has led MSNBC to the top of cable news, and thanks to the unpopularity of Trump, their viewership can only be expected to grow.

  14. Morning all.

    Thanks PhoenixRed and BK for their respective Trump and Dawn Patrols! Loads of reading material this morning.

  15. Poroti:

    There was also his comments (wtte) that the NBN would be obsolete because more people were accessing the internet on mobile devices.

  16. Thanks BK
    If Shorten wants to consolidate Labor’s hold in Qld, while moving away from the dead end Adani fantasy, he should look at this proposed massive build out of renewables proposed for the state. This is where the jobs and growth will come from – it’s already on the books but needs a little support with some extra transmission. It also puts the lie to idiot Canavan’s coal fired power station that no one wants.
    Check out the Ergon project map.

  17. I am very concerned about the strong response in favour of a Dept of Home Affairs in Essential. I note that MPs such as Frydenberg are implying that ‘everyone is in favour’.
    To me, the survey simply indicates that the respondents don’t really see the potential effects, especially with someone like Dutton in charge (or Tudge, Morrison or Porter – or even Cash).

    “Over the last few years, and particular during my time as president, we’ve seen this initially quite slow movement, piece of legislation by piece of legislations, that centralises administrative and ministerial decision-making,” Triggs said.

    “But the last few weeks are seeing almost a galloping move towards a centralisation of government but most particularly of expanded ministerial discretion without proper judicial supervision and control.”

  18. 45% concerned about Peter Dutton having control over all security services is higher than what I’d have expected. I would’ve thought most voters would have no clue who he is.

  19. “So it looks like Kushner “did not inhale”… “
    Part of his testimony to the American Senate was this:

    “I did not have verbal sexual relations with that Russian woman in the blue dress!”

  20. it’s already on the books but needs a little support with some extra transmission.

    The Govt subsidising the build of transmission capacity would be a much better use of taxpayer funds than subsidising a rail line.

  21. You’ve got to give the ABC credit for the 4 Corners story on the Murray Darling fiasco, which really goes to the heart of problems with the current NSW government.

  22. How are NBN Co / ISPs managing to achieve congestion on a Fibre backbone network where the consumer is limited to 100 Mbps ? That’s a feat that’s verging on physical impossibility at the physical network level, is the logical structure for provisioning bandwidth that bad ?

  23. Zoomster

    I have a friend who is well aware that she isn’t a coeliac sufferer, but uses ‘gluten-free’ as shorthand for avoiding the pain and extreme bloating that she gets from ‘ordinary’ foods. There’s obviously another factor involved, but she hasn’t managed to isolate it. I would like to see further tests within that experiment you described.

  24. NSW Labor preparing to adopt a policy outlawing ‘Pray the Gay Away’ practises at it’s State Conference this weekend(or at least adopt a compromise)

  25. TPOF
    I don’t think you would be surprised at this.

    A recent survey of employees working for the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) has revealed a department-wide decline in morale.

    This shift has been attributed to a damming lack of confidence in both Australian Border Force (ABF) Commissioner Roman Quaedvlieg, and what has been described as Mike Pezzullo’s “problematic culture of command and control.”

    The report also cites an ongoing shift away from focusing on assisting people, towards a primarily enforcement-based approach, as well as a lack of communication from senior management.

    Concerns have been raised over an “emerging divide” between the DIBP and the ABF, as a direct result of resourcing shortfalls and the ongoing ramifications of the enterprise bargaining process.

    This development comes in the wake of a statement from the Community and Public Sector Union declaring a loss of confidence in senior management, which has gathered over 2000 signatures from department employees. The statement signatories also issued a vow to campaign against the Coalition government during the upcoming election.

    The scathing internal survey was independently conducted by the Nous Group, and found that there was intense staff dissatisfaction with the current “military-style regime” of both their department, and those at the top.

    Analysing a mix of online feedback and face-to-face focus groups with up to 177 members of staff, the Nous Group determined that the DIBP’s “command and control” work culture was leading to serious issues within the department. Staff morale also appears to be at an all-time low, with only three out of every ten workers reporting that they have confidence in Pezzullo and Quaedvlieg to “guide the department to achieve its vision and mission.”

    The report noted that this has been a common complaint since the inception of the Abbot (sic) government’s new “Americanised” approach to border protection, with department employees receive little to no consultation on changes. This is leading to a series of rapidly growing inefficiencies, “with too many people involved in decisions.”

  26. Confessions
    Oh yes, mustn’t forget how wireless was going to be just as fast as fibre. eh Truffles ?
    Some more Truffles gems to go on the billboards

    Australia doesn’t want 100Mbps Internet, says Turnbull
    07 August, 2010 19:59

    Fibre broadband speeds pointless, claims Turnbull

  27. Lizzie

    It would seem that it’s an awareness thing – that people only pay attention to the state of their digestion when they’ve eaten gluten, because they’re expecting a reaction.

    As a small example, yesterday I found a piece of glass in the last mouthful of pasta sauce. I was pretty sure that I hadn’t actually eaten any glass, but for the rest of the day any discomfort set alarm bells ringing.

    The point is, I probably feel those discomforts after every meal (digestion isn’t always a smooth process, one of the reasons we feel sleepy after a good meal..) but normally I wouldn’t pay any attention to them.

  28. Thanks BK,
    The Jennifer Hewett article is a good read.

    The MDB revelations last night were infuriating. I was working Qld DPI just after the plan was announced, and helped to bed down the water market changes that DNRM has set up. The risk of non-compliance was well understood, as was the need for audits. Seeing a senior bureaucrat undermining the system is galling.

  29. Dr Tim Jones, of LaTrobe University, is the lead investigator of a forthcoming pilot study into gay conversion therapy around Australia, something he said remained “prevalent” within conservative protestant and other churches in Australia.

    Dr Jones said electroshock therapy or medical interventions were rare and gay conversation therapy as practiced in Australia today generally involved a “strong focus on prayer” which could also include secular counsellors or psychologists.

    “The most common range of activities involves one-on-one, group counselling and pop psychology,” he said. “But the boundaries between clinical care and pastoral care are very unclear.

    Who would subject their child to such nonsense, simply because they have a same sex attraction?

  30. Zoomster

    I understand what you mean, but in the case of my friend her stomach bloats so that, in her words, she looks pregnant and her clothes don’t fit. It takes about 3 days for the effect to wear off. I don’t think this is purely psychological as she may be unaware of the food eaten.

    I’m thinking that for some people there is a fault in their digestive system. Poo injections the latest cure?????

  31. Good Morning

    The MDB plan report by Four Corners excellent. Yet another stuff up and dubious practices under LNP governance.

  32. Lizzie

    My sister has similar problems, which she currently blames on gluten/dairy. But the point is, she had the same problems as a baby (when gluten wasn’t in her diet).

    You can understand the desperation in trying to find a cause, but the point of the study is that the study group reacted exactly the same way no matter what they ate – whether it was totally gluten free or whether it was saturated with gluten.

  33. confessions @ #20 Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 8:10 am

    There was also his comments (wtte) that the NBN would be obsolete because more people were accessing the internet on mobile devices.

    According to my (quite possibly faulty) “analysis” of ABS figures, wireless (including mobiles) made up 10.73% of all downloads in Australia in the December 2010 quarter.

    Since then, wireless has been under 10%. For the December 2016 quarter, wireless was 7.34% of all downloads in Australia.

    I should add that, yes, wireless has boomed, going from 21,019T in that December 2010 quarter to 200,739T in the December 2016 quarter. However, fixed line has boomed even more, going from 174,848T up to 2,532,367T.

  34. Cat

    I am surprised that pray the gay away did not pass. The harm done is fairly well documented. Medical science should always overrule religious belief. Especially when harm is being done by forcibly causing mental health harm to a person. Way to keep the suicide rates up.

    Kudos to the Labor members trying to get the policy up.

  35. Yesterday the DT’s front page loudly proclaimed a victory for Abbott at the NSW Libs conference.

    Today they’re a bit worried:

    Abbott’s historic reforms at risk
    FACTIONAL chiefs have vowed to water down — or block entirely — Tony Abbott’s historic move to give Liberal Party members a say in electing their local candidates.

  36. Wireless is pretty comparable to FTTN speed-wise. It’s the download capacity and cost over a month say , where it falls down. You pay more for 50 GB of 4G Wireless (which is somewhere between 25 and 50 Mbps) per month than you do for 1 TB per month , 100 Mbps fixed line / HFC connection.

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