The Guardian reports the Coalition has recovered a point in the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which returns to 53-47 in favour of Labor after two weeks at 54-46. After accounting for an apparent transpositional error in the report, I believe the primary votes are Coalition 38% (up two), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one). The poll also finds that 56% approve of the new national security ministry, with 18% disapproving; 45% expect it will strengthen national security, 28% think it will make little difference and 8% think it will weaken it; and 45% registering concern that Peter Dutton will have control over all security services, with 35% not concerned. The report provides an incomplete account of questions on an emissions intensity scheme taxing pollution above a certain level (54% are in favour) and the National Broadband Network (48% of the 40% who have it say it beats their previous service, but only 19% say it is much better, and 51% say it’s about the same or worse). Full results should be with us later today.
In other news, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you’ll find that I’ve had a lot to say about the Greens recently, in a report on the succession to Scott Ludlam’s Western Australian seat that may be showing its age; an account of the deficiencies of Section 44 (see also Laurie Oakes); and a look askance at conservative suggestions that the party is, uh, “cooked”.
UPDATE: Full report here. We also have bonus Newspoll questions on Tony Abbott, which find 58% favouring Malcolm Turnbull on “best values and leadership credentials” against 23% for Abbott, and pose a question on his future in politics that unusually doesn’t feature an option for him to leave it.
NOTE ON NEW COMMENTS ARCHITECTURE: Regular visitors will shortly notice that the design of the comments section has been overhauled. This has mostly been done for site performance reasons, to which it has made an immediate and massive difference. As you can see, there are lots of new features that people have long asked for. If we can get used to reverse chronological comments, I think it will prove to be a great outcome. A tip for acclimatising yourself here: you do not need to refresh the page to see new comments, and you will cause yourself an annoyance if you try. You will see, at the top of the comments thread, a green “x new comments” button when new comments appear – all you need to do is press this and they will slot into view. Also, for emoji that work, see here.
One way or another though, this is how it will be for the next few days, after which the situation may be reviewed.
Poroti:
I wish someone would put Turnbull’s comments to him now and ask if he still thinks they are reasonable.
citizen @ #42 Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 9:01 am
Nasty, sneaky Auntie,
Especially when they use one of their most openly Christian (Baird) reporters to do it.
How could she have been fooled so easily? 🙂
Zoomster
Yup. My friend simply uses ‘gluten-free’ as an easy way to order food that won’t upset her.
I’m always frustrated when policy makers introduce something and don’t provide the extra staff needed to make sure it works properly.
For example, you’ll often hear that job seekers are now being asked to look for another X amount of jobs per week. But without extra staff time to check whether or not they are seeking that number of jobs, then you may as well have left things as they were.
One year I noticed in the council budget papers that our shire had collected less than one hundred dollars from parking fines. I said to council that that gave us two choices – either get rid of all parking restrictions, because they were meaningless, or employ more staff and make sure reasonable enforcement took place (they went for the second option).
That water systems are rorted is well known. The river that runs past our place takes water from a dam to a regional centre. It takes water released from the dam three days to get to the regional centre. In summer, they have to release three times the amount of water the town needs.
Very little of this is due to evaporation – the water vanishes because farmers downriver illegally take it. But there’s absolutely no monitoring ever done to stop this – most farm pumps I see on the river don’t have a meter.
On the NBN. Not only is landline booming but its going to grow. Just look at the introduction of the virtual assistants for the home. When you have one of these experience in the US is that the internet of things booms.
Thats a lot of landline use of the internet. So the landline is here to stay and as such given the superior information flows available of course people will use their home connection the most. Mobile will be used a lot when away from home.
The limits on mobile are well known. Its called physics.
I hope someone in Labor paid attention to Lateline last night. Professor George Williams was on saying a postal vote regarding marriage equality would lack credibility as the vote was not compulsory
Ag0044:
Thanks for that, very interesting. Something else that should be put to Turnbull and ask if he still stands by his earlier comments about the value of the NBN.
srpeatling: John Laws to Scott Morrison: “Shd Tony Abbott get the hell out of the party?”
Morrison: “No, no, no, no.”
Barney + Grimace,
What inspired my thinking was this article:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-may-be-forced-to-call-election-after-just-two-years-of-governing-20170612-gwpgcb.html
Latest date for a simultaneous House and half Senate election is May 18 2019. The NSW election is on March 23 2019. So there’s a window of opportunity in there.
Personally I’d love to see the election called in September 2018 but I can’t see Malcom not wanting to hold on. I just wish there was a reason to believe we’re going that early because the sooner an end is put to FTTN, the less costly it will be putting the pieces back together.
Its hard to see what a DD trigger could be manufactured from that wouldn’t also be a vote loser. Besides its just not going to happen if their polls are as bad as they are now.
BK,
So many divides in political parties are underpinned by religion.
I guess that’s why they say that ‘Politics is the art of compromise’. 🙂
Morning all
Much appreciation for today’s reports from BK Phoenix Lizzie and ors.
Guytaur,
As I read the article, Walt Secord is trying to be the devil’s advocate to the extent that he is saying that if you are an adult, then you should be able to make your own decisions. Also that if you are gay AND religious, you should not be prevented from using prayer or counselling if YOU want to investigate changing your sexuality.
I can see it from another perspective. Just as there are plenty of people who go from being hetero to gay, so must there be some who go from being gay to hetero. If they have found religion, then maybe they could think that some prayer or pastoral counselling may help their journey?
guytaur @ #58 Tuesday, July 25th, 2017 – 9:19 am
Obviously, Scomo is channelling Amy Winehouse.
GreenJ: we could have powered it with the ironic juxtaposition of news corp takes. twitter.com/australian/sta…
australian: Australia could have had a world-leading broadband network.
We blew it.
trib.al/PLG3xEJ
GG
😆
Good one
Cat
Yeah that would set the cat amongst the pigeons. Pray to be Gay you could call it.
Guytaur
Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 9:18 am
I hope someone in Labor paid attention to Lateline last night. Professor George Williams was on saying a postal vote regarding marriage equality would lack credibility as the vote was not compulsory
Labor will have worked that one out by themselves. The Liberals are the ones that need to be persuaded. But they will resist. They don’t care about such niceties as credibility. They will want to campaign.
GG
I am enjoying the karma of the LNP divisions big time. I am regretting the predictions of at least many here on PB that the LNP would be an incompetent mess and bad for the country no matter which side of politics you were on has come to pass.
I am pleased however that division is looking like its going to make the LNP the natural opposition for some time by the looks of it. So maybe the damage is worth it.
cud chewer @ #59 Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 9:20 am
It certainly highlights a problem the States are creating with fixed terms.
The electoral dance card is filling up and limiting options for federal elections.
http://www.afr.com/business/energy/gas/government-to-formally-assess-likelihood-of-2018-domestic-gas-shortfall-20170723-gxgxwc
This is quite fascinating. They should just declare a Shortfall Year and watch the exporters beg for mercy.
don @ #15 Tuesday, July 25th, 2017 – 7:55 am
Hi don,
These days Opera is based off Chromium (as is Google Chrome), so the method for chrome should also work fine on opera.
An alternative is to install A R’s chrome extension on opera, here’s a link http://bit.ly/2uPEZ1U
The division continues
srpeatling: Senator Smith says his SSM private member’s bill is “constructive” and “will come to the parliament”.
c@tmomma @ #63 Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 9:24 am
No-one, I repeat no-one goes from hetero to gay, or vice versa. What happens is you finally acknowledge that that is your sexuality. It is not a change, it’s merely acceptance of that’s the way you are.
Pedophiles can’t change the way they are and neither can gay or straight people. If a straight person suddenly decides they are gay, it means they are finally acknowledging what they are. They always were gay. It’s just that societal demands, peer group pressure and more forced them into straight relationships. For those people all their relationships would’ve been unfulfilling and all of them would break down eventually.
You don’t, and can’t become gay, you always were gay. You don’t, and can’t become straight, you always were. It is only fundamental religious nutters (Bernardi, Abetz, Andrews, Nile, etc.) who believe that they can change a person’s sexuality.
Or as Frank Zappa put it, you are what you is.
c@tmomma @ #63 Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 9:24 am
But that whole argument is based on assuming that sexual orientation is a conscious choice, where the evidence suggests this is not the case.
Guytaur:
I’m enjoying the divisions in the LNP too!
CNN just had a 2 minute piece on the Aussie refugee renege.
Miracle Mal and “Fakewit” Dutts have scored!
Guytaur
Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 9:37 am
The division continues
srpeatling: Senator Smith says his SSM private member’s bill is “constructive” and “will come to the parliament”.
I’m very pleased to see this.
I see no advantage for anyone other than the Right in the continuing manipulation of this issue. The sooner it is dealt with – the sooner ME is enacted – the better.
Jenauthor
Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 9:44 am
CNN just had a 2 minute piece on the Aussie refugee renege.
False Promise once again.
I do remember the pundits saying that the annihilation of ALP after RGR would see labor out of office fore ‘Decades!’ And yet ALP almost won the last election.
So even if we cheer the Libs current turmoil, we should be careful making predictions, methinks.
More power to the EU on this.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1A92D4
briefly
If Dean Smith’s bill passes the right wing is going to go nuclear. I count that as a win win.
Guytaur
Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 9:18 am
I hope someone in Labor paid attention to Lateline last night. Professor George Williams was on saying a postal vote regarding marriage equality would lack credibility as the vote was not compulsory
Lets assume Turnbull bypasses parliament and sets up a voluntary plebiscite by mail.
Presumably it would be quite legal to campaign for “DON’T VOTE”. I wonder if this tactic has been discussed by the pro-SSM people.
Briefly:
What’s the bet there will be some last minute compromise deal that means Smith’s bill doesn’t come to the parliament?
They’re twisting themselves in knots over SSM so imagine how frenzied it will be as parliament resumes?
Jen
I am basing my prediction of the LNP being in the wilderness due to the now recognised death of neo liberalism. It created ideological divisions in the right side of politics.
This is more like the Bob Santamaria DLP division for the ALP than the RGR division as I see it.
Of course my predictions do not have a good track record so do take that on board.
Consulted with a friend of mine who is one of Australia’s top cancer researchers (Gustav Nossal has predicted he’ll get a Nobel Prize) — basically if you deprive your body of sugar (from whatever source) in order to starve cancer cells, you’re starving the rest of your body as well.
Frydenberg’s lies are accepted, but Shorten has to be fact checked. Funny, that.
https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-is-australia-the-most-unequal-it-has-been-in-75-years-47931?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton
jenauthor @ #80 Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 9:47 am
While their are many similarities with what Labor went and the Liberals are going through, there is one important difference.
The Labor division was mainly about personalities,
while
the Liberal division is mainly about ideology.
trog sorrenson @ #21 Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 8:12 am
I wonder how many of these new Finkel fans realize that Finkel’s proposal leads to us burning more coal than if we did nothing at all?
If they do, I wonder if they care?
sunriseon7: .@NAB customers are fuming this morning due to a glitch that won’t let them send or receive money including direct debits. #sun7 pic.twitter.com/nq30UOLR2n
Elaugaufein @ #30 Tuesday, July 25th, 2017 – 8:33 am
Under-provisioning of nodes, combined with the technology mix. For FttP it is likely the bandwidth pool is too small or some very inefficient throttling methods are being used.
For FttN, that’s a different story of course, transition from optic to electric, for every home, then decaying copper. NBN will also blame the running ADSL on the lines at the same time for causing NBN’s slow speeds, and then they are able to ‘turn up to power’ of the NBN when everyone is forced off the old landline/adsl schemes… I find this excuse too convenient however.
Another interesting issue, is that often under-provisioned fibre is then split down the track, to have new connections piggy backed. Users on the split line can then sniff all packets of anyone else on that line (similar to, but obviously not as easy as. sniffing wifi packets). 1 vulnerability in wifi authentication methods exposes a huge population to nefarious activity, and its one of the hardest things to fix… I still find WEP connections for instance… (takes about 30 seconds to crack into)
Further to your point about wireless, sure its convenient. However it is also comparatively
insecure, prone to latency spikes and dropouts, higher latency in general.
As I’ve mentioned before, my fear is that the expansion of the network is severely limited due to physical under-provisioning of the nodes, making transitioning to FttP down the line an arduous, expensive task.
P1
There is not much about the Finkel report to praise. However as a way to start getting the we love coal people to take the first step on the road to change it has a lot to recommend it.
So of course Finkel’s report does not end coal. That would mean that first step would not be taken.
Yes – if we accept that sexuality isn’t a ‘choice’, we need to radically rethink our attitude to pedophiles.
We can’t condone their behaviour, because of the damage it inflicts on others, but we can change our attitude towards the person themselves, and see them as someone who needs help.*
It’s a knotty problem. Thirty years ago, we were treating homosexuals the same way we now treat pedophiles. We now see that as wrong.
Yet it pedophiles are born, not made, they face exactly the same problems that homosexuals faced back then, without any obvious solutions.
*And yes, someone who commits a crime should be punished.
GordyPls: Why are we discussing the military’s political opinions? twitter.com/Studio10au/sta…
Studio10au: The Air Force boss in charge of ending people smugglers believes a change in government could spark a new wave of asylum seekers. #Studio10 pic.twitter.com/DvZRuZfzfD
https://twitter.com/studio10au/status/889632986777489409
Confessions
Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 9:51 am
Briefly:
What’s the bet there will be some last minute compromise deal that means Smith’s bill doesn’t come to the parliament?
If I were in Dean Smith’s shoes I would be totally outraged by the proposal to conduct a voluntary plebiscite, which is one of the most cynical moves seen in Australian politics. I imagine it would only increase his resolve to take the Bill to the Parliament.
Zoomster
Regarding homosexuals and pedophiles, I think the crucial distinction is that the former involves consenting adults and the latter involves an adult imposing their will on a child.
Fess
I agree that the right will try and water down any bill put forward by one of their own. However if Smith just puts a change the Marriage Act back to what it was before it was changed by Howard I can see Labor supporting that.
I don’t see why any more amendments would need to be made. I expect the right wing will try and get amendments agreed to before the bill is presented. If so the parliamentary amendment debate in the Senate could get really fiery
zoom
My point was more that the law and society accepts that pedophiles cannot change, which is why they are kept well away from children.
A person’s sexuality is set in stone at a fairly early age. They don’t, and indeed can’t change. They merely acknowledge that that is the way they are.
On top of that there are bisexual people. Do they suddenly go from straight to bi, or is from gay to bi? Neither actually. That’s the way they are and will always be.
Zoomster
Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 10:00 am
Yes – if we accept that sexuality isn’t a ‘choice’, we need to radically rethink our attitude to pedophiles.
The issue is not attraction, it is the capacity to obtain consent. We do not permit adults to procure sex from minors, no matter their genders, precisely because we do not consider that minors can give their informed consent to sexual relations and because they are in an inherently vulnerable position in relation to adults.
This should not be conflated with opposite- or same- sex attraction.
Citizen
Yes, I made that clear – that the behaviour can’t be condoned.