Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After two successive stronger results for Labor, Essential Research is back on Team 53-47.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has recovered a point in the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which returns to 53-47 in favour of Labor after two weeks at 54-46. After accounting for an apparent transpositional error in the report, I believe the primary votes are Coalition 38% (up two), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one). The poll also finds that 56% approve of the new national security ministry, with 18% disapproving; 45% expect it will strengthen national security, 28% think it will make little difference and 8% think it will weaken it; and 45% registering concern that Peter Dutton will have control over all security services, with 35% not concerned. The report provides an incomplete account of questions on an emissions intensity scheme taxing pollution above a certain level (54% are in favour) and the National Broadband Network (48% of the 40% who have it say it beats their previous service, but only 19% say it is much better, and 51% say it’s about the same or worse). Full results should be with us later today.

In other news, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you’ll find that I’ve had a lot to say about the Greens recently, in a report on the succession to Scott Ludlam’s Western Australian seat that may be showing its age; an account of the deficiencies of Section 44 (see also Laurie Oakes); and a look askance at conservative suggestions that the party is, uh, “cooked”.

UPDATE: Full report here. We also have bonus Newspoll questions on Tony Abbott, which find 58% favouring Malcolm Turnbull on “best values and leadership credentials” against 23% for Abbott, and pose a question on his future in politics that unusually doesn’t feature an option for him to leave it.

NOTE ON NEW COMMENTS ARCHITECTURE: Regular visitors will shortly notice that the design of the comments section has been overhauled. This has mostly been done for site performance reasons, to which it has made an immediate and massive difference. As you can see, there are lots of new features that people have long asked for. If we can get used to reverse chronological comments, I think it will prove to be a great outcome. A tip for acclimatising yourself here: you do not need to refresh the page to see new comments, and you will cause yourself an annoyance if you try. You will see, at the top of the comments thread, a green “x new comments” button when new comments appear – all you need to do is press this and they will slot into view. Also, for emoji that work, see here.

One way or another though, this is how it will be for the next few days, after which the situation may be reviewed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,397 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 28
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  1. Briefly:

    I can’t imagine what compromise scenario would be acceptable to Smith, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened at the last minute. Turnbull has shown absolutely zero leadership on this issue, and continues to demonstrate his total lack of authority within the partyroom, so I’m expecting the reactionaries and Abbottobads in the LNP to assert their authority to ensure the bill doesn’t see the light of day.

  2. @ P1 –

    I am not worried that Jacobs modelling shows higher coal use under the scenarios than under BaU. I am worried that no-one seems to care that Jacobs are pretending that banks would lend to coal plants for 5.3% under scenarios (10.3% under BAU), which is likely less than banks would lend to someone for a mortgage from now until 2050. I am worried that the modelling disregards AGL’s commitment, just as it disregards the commitments of the Victorian and Qld governments to a RET.

    I am worried that Jacobs/Finkel believe that a CET with a certificate price of $0.01 and no chance of meeting our Paris commitments will make companies act under the assumption that that target will last through change of government.

  3. Guytaur:

    Yes that is what I’m expecting to happen – some kind of compromise or watering down. I guess we’ll see, but in the meantime I’m enjoying the unhingement and divisions.

  4. @ confessions – most likely compromise

    “You don’t put forward your private members bill and we won’t branch stack your preselection plebiscite or leak our dirt file on you to the press”

  5. Guytaur
    Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 9:49 am
    briefly

    If Dean Smith’s bill passes the right wing is going to go nuclear.

    I tend to think that once ME is enacted the issue will soon fade away. There will be plenty of celebration and lots of love going round. The Right will look very sour indeed if they sulk over it. They will reconcile themselves to the reform.

  6. Briefly

    Have no doubt they will go nuclear. They will most likely use renewable energy as the cause celeb or maybe another one. However be in no doubt they will see this as a betrayal with Abbott’s “clever” blockage of a plebiscite shot down.

    Its going to be fun times.

  7. Smith will have his supporters within the ranks. There must be plenty of Libs who may be uncommitted on ME but would dearly like to have the issue resolved. It is an issue that does not divide Labor but has driven a schism into the Parliamentary LNP and well as among their voters.

    The RW are not only blackmailing Turnbull. They are holding the rest of the LNP to ransom as well. If they have any common sense at all the LNP will allow the issue to be dealt with. The electorate will be relieved and the LNP will get some credit for it from the very large majority of the community that support reform.

  8. A Liberal senator has labelled his colleague’s idea of giving Australians a say on same-sex marriage via the post “corrosive”.

    Dean Smith, who is drafting his own private member’s bill for a conscience vote in parliament, acknowledges the latest idea demonstrates a willingness to deal with the issue.

    But he is wary of the cost and legal hurdles of cabinet minister Peter Dutton’s idea of a postal plebiscite.

    “We have had two binding plebiscites previously in 1916 (and) 1917. They were acrimonious and they divided communities,” Senator Smith told ABC radio on Tuesday.
    “Postal plebiscites, national plebiscites are corrosive to our representative parliamentary democracy.”

    Senator Smith says his bill for a free vote before year’s end will be made public and is a sensible and constructive way forward.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/wa-liberal-senator-dean-smith-labels-postal-vote-on-on-same-sex-marriage-as-corrosive-ng-b88547079z

  9. Briefly

    Thats the problem for Turnbull. If the right had common sense a vote in parliament would already have happened after they saw all those polls

  10. Guytaur
    Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 10:19 am
    Briefly

    Have no doubt they will go nuclear.

    We will see. I reckon reform is a vote-winner. Obstruction of reform is loser. If sections of the LNP align themselves with successful reform they will derive an electoral benefit…and that would soon silence the RW.

  11. Yep, I too believe once marriage equality is legislated the issue will be like the apology to the stolen generations and will disappear. In time those opposed will eventually come out publicly stating they were wrong to oppose SSM, just as the then opponents of the apology have done so.

  12. Guytaur
    Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 10:24 am
    Briefly

    Thats the problem … If the right had common sense…

    We know that common sense does cohabit with the Right.

  14. briefly

    Nah. The RW will pay lip service but will hold betrayal close to their hearts. It will be remembered and acted on. Just like with 18 C.

    See right wing in US still fighting against ME despite Supreme Court ruling.

  18. confessions @ #111 Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 10:26 am

    Yep, I too believe once marriage equality is legislated the issue will be like the apology to the stolen generations and will disappear. In time those opposed will eventually come out publicly stating they were wrong to oppose SSM, just as the then opponents of the apology have done so.

    I doubt they will even notice or talk about it as it will have no effect on them unless, of course, they have LGBTI family members. 🙂

  19. BiGD and DanG,
    I get what you are saying, but it appears to come from the wellspring of, ‘You are and always have been gay’, even if you have denied it most of your life and lived in unsustaining spiritually and emotionally, heterosexual relationships.

    I guess I can only say that I have viewed this phenomenon through the eyes of one of my sons. His first sexual inclinations were gay. Then he got religion and went through a period of self-imposed celibacy. Lately he has moved to a more Anglican Hetero stance of wanting to have a family, and believing, for anthropological and historical reasons (don’t ask! 😀 ) that the best outcome for the human race was to be hetero and have a family.

    So?…

  20. Elaugaufein

    Wireless is pretty comparable to FTTN speed-wise. It’s the download capacity and cost over a month say , where it falls down. You pay more for 50 GB of 4G Wireless (which is somewhere between 25 and 50 Mbps) per month than you do for 1 TB per month , 100 Mbps fixed line / HFC connection.

    I presume you are talking about mobile data which is horrendously expensive. Another “benefit” of Howard’s privatisation of Telstra to improve “competition”.
    NBN Fixed wireless is quite cost effective, e.g. I am on a plan with 240 Gb peak/6000 Gb offpeak at 50/20 download/upload for $85/mth.
    Just did a speed test and got 45.6/14.8 which is quite acceptable

  21. I do remember the pundits saying that the annihilation of ALP after RGR would see labor out of office fore ‘Decades!’ And yet ALP almost won the last election.

    So even if we cheer the Libs current turmoil, we should be careful making predictions, methinks.

    Similarly, I recall the Rudd ascension in 2007 was accompanied by predictions of Labor to be in power for 3 or more terms…of course it all nearly came a cropper after one term in 2010. The only predictability is the unpredictability of events.

  23. Entsch has come out in support of a parliamentary vote on SSM. Dean Smith and Trent Zimmerman are co-sponsoring the Liberal SSM Bill. Where’s Tim Wilson? Strangely silent.

  24. JimmyDoyle,
    I say this with the gentlest of intentions – he’s probably still gay.

    God only knows! 😀

    But seriously, it could also be the case that he was prone, as a late teen, to influence by his peer group, which he resolved in his own mind at a later time.

    What I do know is that he is mercurial and a work in progress.

  25. P1

    I wonder how many of these new Finkel fans realize that Finkel’s proposal leads to us burning more coal than if we did nothing at all?

    I hope that you are not including me in the “Finkel Fan” brigade.
    The Finkel target probably will end up favoring fossil fuels more than the do nothing option.
    What I am most concerned about is all the rest of market rule stuff. This needs to be reconfigured to permit open trading. This will encourage further development of renewables behind the meter – which is already going ballistic.

  26. I’d be surprised if in the event a plebiscite occured SSM supporters lobbied not to vote. The chance of returning a decisive NO, allowing further can kicking (like if it’s a NO the coalition will pretend the issue is resolved for at least a decade and just point to the plebiscite). If a plebiscite is going to occur it makes sense to try and get as decisive a win as possible in it, despite how distasteful it may be.

    It’s kind of the situation where you don’t want a fight, but if one is going to happen , you should want to win.

  28. Cat

    Yeah. He could turn out to be Trans. As you say who knows. However religion is usually no help to people on this. The track record is very very poor.

  29. C@Tmomma – all I can say is that in any internal conflict between a person’s religious beliefs and sexuality – their sexuality will always win. A person can repress and deny their sexuality, but they can’t change it or eliminate it.

  30. The response to Bill Shorten’s move to make inequality front and centre of his re-election campaign has the highlighted how utterly stuck conservatives are in a pre-financial crisis mindset. Rather than address the issue that has been a clear concern of households during a period of flat real wages growth, the response has been to argue the problem doesn’t exist and that all we really need to do is reduce government spending, keep the minimum wage low and cut workers wages.

    Bill Shorten’s speech on Friday in which he argued that inequality was “the biggest threat to our health as an economy and our cohesion as a society” certainly rustled the jimmies of the conservatives.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/jul/25/bill-shortens-inequality-pitch-has-rustled-the-jimmies-of-conservatives?CMP=soc_568
    __________________________________________________

    Cat

    The usual stuff. I heard drownings at sea. Of course people kept locked up on land for years are in no danger of drowning at sea

  31. C@Tmomma – I suspect Tim Wilson is the only one in that grouping with ministerial/leadership aspirations – he’s in a tough bind over ssm.

  32. c@tmomma @ #119 Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 10:37 am

    BiGD and DanG,
    I get what you are saying, but it appears to come from the wellspring of, ‘You are and always have been gay’, even if you have denied it most of your life and lived in unsustaining spiritually and emotionally, heterosexual relationships.
    I guess I can only say that I have viewed this phenomenon through the eyes of one of my sons. His first sexual inclinations were gay. Then he got religion and went through a period of self-imposed celibacy. Lately he has moved to a more Anglican Hetero stance of wanting to have a family, and believing, for anthropological and historical reasons (don’t ask!

  33. …but we do know of quite common situations (prison, for example) where people engage in homosexual activities and revert to heterosexuality as soon as they’re out. I can’t see why that also couldn’t happen in ‘real life’ — there certainly is plenty of evidence for experimentation, for example, which doesn’t affect future orientation.

  34. ‘Male transvestitism, homosexuality, and bisexuality are facts of life in Polynesia, where families with a shortage of female offspring will raise young boys as girls. Some of these youths grow up to be heterosexual; others become homosexual or bisexual and, often appearing publicly in women’s attire, actively seek out the company of tourists. In Tahitian, these males are known as mahus.’

    http://www.frommers.com/destinations/french-polynesia/the-people

  35. Got emojied.
    Cat,

    It sounds like he is trying to find himself and a place in the society.

    Is that who he truly is?

    But at the end of day the most important thing is, is he happy?

    I hope so.

  36. Don
    Can you not use tampermonkey with Opera.
    Just a question. I have no knowledge of the subject, just that a google shows the possibility.
    ☕

  37. trog sorrenson @ #120 Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 10:37 am

    NBN Fixed wireless is quite cost effective, e.g. I am on a plan with 240 Gb peak/6000 Gb offpeak at 50/20 download/upload for $85/mth.

    What hours constitute “peak” and “off-peak” hours?

    Any plan that only allows you to watch Netflix/Stan between midnight and dawn, is neither cost effective nor any bloody good at all.

    It might fit your needs, however I doubt anyone else would get any value out of it, no matter how fast the speeds are.

  38. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end of the Trump nightmare:

    “The current congressional G.O.P. seems less supportive and more constraining of the Potus than basically any in history,” Glassman wrote to me, “save the unique circumstances of Andrew Johnson (who wasn’t really a Republican) and John Tyler (who bucked his party aggressively), neither of whom were elected.”

    Many of today’s Republicans avoid going on television as Trump surrogates. They mock him off the record, and increasingly on the record, too. In recent weeks, eight senators have publicly stood in the way of a health care bill. Republican senators are also helping to conduct an investigation of Trump’s campaign and have backed the appointment of Robert Mueller as special counsel.

    One reason is that they don’t fear Trump. About 90 percent of Republican House members won a larger vote share in their district last year than Trump did, according to Sarah Binder of George Washington University. Since he took office, Trump’s nationwide net approval rating has fallen to minus 16 (with only 39 percent approving) from plus 4.

    So it’s not just Republican politicians who are inching away from Trump. Republican voters are, too.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/24/opinion/republican-support-donald-trump.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  39. Voluntary postal plebiscite??
    FFS people….we are talking snail mail here.

    Look at that aspect of it in terms of getting the younger demographics (to whom snail mail is almost an anachronism) out to vote?? Its main relevance to them is as how they get their online orders delivered, not important documents. Its an attempt by the RWNJobbies to structurally bias the outcome.

  40. Trog
    Yeah, I think I am. Telstra seems to use the term differently to the formal definition now that I look. I can travel with my “Wireless” router and set it up anywhere there’s mobile service, but that’s not possible with real Fixed Wireless. That probably explains your far greater bandwidth allowance too since congestion is pretty much local.

    I’ve never seen plans like that in Queensland. Probably just an artifact of where I’ve lived: Regional / Rural and Inner City which means I’ve never been anywhere that Fixed Wireless makes sense.

  41. Hi Zoomster,

    While I have no doubt your friend is well qualified on the subject, I checked out google scholar to see if the papers I’ve read are posted there as well and some are. If you do a google scholar search on ‘glucose restriction and cancer’ or ‘glucose, insulin and cancer’ you’ll find quite a few research papers that discuss this topic and conclusions in many are that dietary chlucose restriction does effect cancers by inhibiting the nutritional route for cancer cells to grow. Some papers are animal studies, but there are a number of studies that were done on human patients.

    I am not saying it is a cure-all for cancer but some of the more recent studies demonstrate that limiting dietary and therefore blood glucose has no harmful effect on a patient and indeed, some therapies use preparatory fasting to ensure chemotherapy works better.

  43. lizzie @ #41 Tuesday, July 25, 2017 at 8:54 am

    Zoomster
    I understand what you mean, but in the case of my friend her stomach bloats so that, in her words, she looks pregnant and her clothes don’t fit. It takes about 3 days for the effect to wear off. I don’t think this is purely psychological as she may be unaware of the food eaten.
    I’m thinking that for some people there is a fault in their digestive system. Poo injections the latest cure?????

    This relates to yesterdays discussion that started when I posted something about the Hadza I had heard in a BBC program.
    I have heard about it elsewhere and the method of administration was oral.
    But fear not, it was not a ‘shit sandwich’, it was a capsule that would pass through the stomach.
    Interesting stuff.

  44. What’s the story with Smith’s marriage equality bill and how the procedure works?
    Who would have to cross the floor to get through the procedural motions and what would be the response to that?

  45. It’s the download capacity and cost over a month say , where it falls down.

    Oh yeah! I had about a week and a half of using Telstra mobile data during my transition from ADSL to NBN FTTN recently.
    Hugely expensive for my household. 14 year old daughter and partner use youtube / streaming a lot, as well as Win10 machines doing updates i thought i had blocked but buggered that up.
    Now on unlimited data plan @ 25Mbps which works for us quite well. Easy chew through 3-400 GB / month at my place so 4G mobile data is not viable.
    Plan to use mobile phones (they have 2GB / mth data at the moment) as hotspots for basic connectivity if the landline / NBN goes down in the future.

  46. Trog Sorrenson @ #120 Tuesday, July 25th, 2017 – 10:37 am

    Elaugaufein

    Wireless is pretty comparable to FTTN speed-wise. It’s the download capacity and cost over a month say , where it falls down. You pay more for 50 GB of 4G Wireless (which is somewhere between 25 and 50 Mbps) per month than you do for 1 TB per month , 100 Mbps fixed line / HFC connection.

    I presume you are talking about mobile data which is horrendously expensive. Another “benefit” of Howard’s privatisation of Telstra to improve “competition”.
    NBN Fixed wireless is quite cost effective, e.g. I am on a plan with 240 Gb peak/6000 Gb offpeak at 50/20 download/upload for $85/mth.
    Just did a speed test and got 45.6/14.8 which is quite acceptable

    Decent speeds and similar to what some people I know get on their fixed wifi. Out of interest have you experienced any dropouts in bad weather, and in general any big latency spikes (probably not noticeable unless you are doing some ‘real-time’ activities).
    My brother in law covertly felled a couple of trees on his neighbours bush block, as they were perfectly positioned to block his fixed wifi beam (He’s a tech consultant in the middle of nowhere in central VIC)

  47. Maybe the compromise with SSM will be a voluntary postal & -online- vote. It will assuage some of the anti-youth skew issues.
    I don’t see what the end game for the RWNJs is regarding this issue. It’s going to happen one way or another.

  48. I have a sneaking suspicion that the right wing religious types would just love to have a plebiscite so they can further punish homosexuals with hateful bile and delay the inevitable even further.

  49. It’s the synchronicity of “getting religion” and suddenly discovering and choosing to be straight that gives it away.

    Still some people are actually bisexual and those people may choose to only form attachments to the opposite sex. But if they do that for religious shame based reasons I suspect their inclinations will continue to privately trouble them for most of their life.

    Then there are people who just aren’t that highly sexed or who don’t feel the urge to pair bond. They might give it up for judgy God quite easily where others struggle with it in an all consuming battle against their true nature. It’s a rich tapestry

  50. I don’t see what the end game for the RWNJs is regarding this issue. It’s going to happen one way or another.

    I don’t get it either. We’ve wasted how many years now trying to avoid something that is wholly inevitable.

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