Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After two successive stronger results for Labor, Essential Research is back on Team 53-47.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has recovered a point in the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which returns to 53-47 in favour of Labor after two weeks at 54-46. After accounting for an apparent transpositional error in the report, I believe the primary votes are Coalition 38% (up two), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one). The poll also finds that 56% approve of the new national security ministry, with 18% disapproving; 45% expect it will strengthen national security, 28% think it will make little difference and 8% think it will weaken it; and 45% registering concern that Peter Dutton will have control over all security services, with 35% not concerned. The report provides an incomplete account of questions on an emissions intensity scheme taxing pollution above a certain level (54% are in favour) and the National Broadband Network (48% of the 40% who have it say it beats their previous service, but only 19% say it is much better, and 51% say it’s about the same or worse). Full results should be with us later today.

In other news, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you’ll find that I’ve had a lot to say about the Greens recently, in a report on the succession to Scott Ludlam’s Western Australian seat that may be showing its age; an account of the deficiencies of Section 44 (see also Laurie Oakes); and a look askance at conservative suggestions that the party is, uh, “cooked”.

UPDATE: Full report here. We also have bonus Newspoll questions on Tony Abbott, which find 58% favouring Malcolm Turnbull on “best values and leadership credentials” against 23% for Abbott, and pose a question on his future in politics that unusually doesn’t feature an option for him to leave it.

NOTE ON NEW COMMENTS ARCHITECTURE: Regular visitors will shortly notice that the design of the comments section has been overhauled. This has mostly been done for site performance reasons, to which it has made an immediate and massive difference. As you can see, there are lots of new features that people have long asked for. If we can get used to reverse chronological comments, I think it will prove to be a great outcome. A tip for acclimatising yourself here: you do not need to refresh the page to see new comments, and you will cause yourself an annoyance if you try. You will see, at the top of the comments thread, a green “x new comments” button when new comments appear – all you need to do is press this and they will slot into view. Also, for emoji that work, see here.

One way or another though, this is how it will be for the next few days, after which the situation may be reviewed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,397 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Itzadream

    It’s now nearly impossible to follow a discussion on PB unless you are present when it starts. This may have some small positive impact (less snarkiness from PB’s serial stalkers) but overall it will be negative.

    It will make PB about as interesting and useful a discussion forum as twitter.

  2. One thing I don’t like about the new PB paradigm is that BK’s Dawn Patrol seems to disappear very quickly. Also as I am reviewing which articles to read the thread keeps updating as quickly as it does with new comments, which throws me off and back to another section of the Dawn Patrol. So I have to go looking for where I was before it happened. Then it happens again!

    Not happy, Jan!

  3. Two new radio/TV advertisements:

    1. United Voice regarding efforts by the licensed clubs to cut employee wages by moving them to the basic award.

    2. Industry super funds regarding lobbying by the banks to have government hobble them.

  4. [Emma Alberici‏Verified account @albericie · 36m36 minutes ago

    Triggs: We’re regressing re women, indigenous, homeless & asylum seekers. This Gov is ideologically opposed to human rights @RNBreakfast

    ]

  5. ‘shellbell
    12 minutes ago
    Comment #1094
    A commonwealth inquiry into NSW water violations may founder on jurisdiction issues’

    Which will allow the NSW Coalition government of Gladys Berejiklian to cynically exploit the fact no doubt.

  11. Lizzie,
    ‘ Scrolling upwards past comment I have already read to go to the next section of BK does not come naturally to me.’

    Ditto.

    Plus conversations seem to be able to become more disjointed more easily now.

  12. C@Tmomma

    Which will allow the NSW Coalition government of Gladys Berejiklian to cynically exploit the fact no doubt

    There’s something about Gladys. Rather, there’s nothing about Gladys. At least gotta look after the family, oh wait, here’s a nice bank job had dimples.

  13. Lizzie,
    ‘How come I don’t have pages???’

    Different browser? I have Chrome with Windows 10.

    I also don’t like the fact I can’t use italics or blockquotes either. So I’ve started using the ‘ and ‘ at the end of a quote I want to use to give some context to my reply.

    Emojis in a comment also cut off the rest of your own comment now as well if there is text after them.

    {sadfaceemoji}

  16. ItzaDream,
    Notice how Gladys, the noted micro manager and control freak (and that’s according to her own MPs), ALWAYS assesses the politics of a situation that might harm her government and toot sweet puts the political fix in?

  17. What mindset drives Murdoch and his minions to keep up the attacks as Jillian Triggs is finishing her role?

    Triggs’s inglorious legacy
    CHRIS KENNY
    The outgoing president of the Human Rights Commission was the architect of her own decline.

  21. I’m angry.

    [Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 1h1 hour ago

    Santa Lane aggressively defending Murray-Darling basin and bashing Labor in hostile RN interview with Weatherill this morning. Shameful bias

    ]

  22. Lane Sainty‏Verified account @lanesainty · 14h14 hours ago

    Italian mate: “its impossible to forget you’re a citizen… the italian consulate sends me like seven letters a year”

  23. Sounds like John McCain’s cancer diagnosis might have delivered some reality therapy, which he is now trying to pass on to Republicans in Congress. He says he won’t vote for Trumpcare as it now stands – a “shell of a bill”, as he describes it, and that they need to get together with Dems to sort out the mess.
    Sounds like parasite McConnell is fucked in trying to ram through his half baked murderous bill.
    http://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/07/25/john-mccain-senate-floor-return-to-order-sot.cnn

  25. Sounds like John McCain’s cancer diagnosis might have delivered some reality therapy, which he is now trying to pass on to Republicans in Congress. He says he won’t vote for Trumpcare as it now stands

    LOL I called this the other day. Just your typical conservative – they develop empathy only when misfortune happens to them.

  27. Thanks AR or Zeh for the changes I’m experiencing. I’ve got comment numbers, preview and a functional reply button.

    I love having the pictures.

    I’ll email Crikey about getting the order reversed (I am a paying subscriber) and then PB will be an actual improvement on before.

  29. I like the ‘most recent’ at the top…………though no pagination or time stamp essentially means anything beyond page I can’t see at one hit is not worth the candle in looking back…………………Who cares what somebody said 10 minutes or 10 hours ago with this new format? Like a newspaper, today’s news, tomorrow’s wrapping paper for rubbish.

  36. Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 4m4 minutes ago
    Everyone has the right to access the courts. Canavan does, Ludlam & Waters did but chose not to. Courts will decide, the law will prevail.

  40. victoria @ #1134 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 8:52 am

    Morning all

    C@t

    How is sons recovery going?

    Hi Vic,
    Thanks for asking! I was just speaking to him and he’s still got the drain coming out of a hole in his back draining away the fluid from around his liver. Hopefully he will have it taken out today as he said that not much is coming out any more. He’s also feeling pain in his hips now from having to sleep on his side all the time.

    However, on the good news front he is able to eat soft food and drink fluids again without bringing it back up.

    So, all in all, positive.

  41. I really really would love numbered comments. (Chrome iPad Pro) … telling me how long ago a comment was made means that changes constantly and I’d have to remember what time I last logged out to know how far back to scroll.

    William, I don’t like to complain (though I do pay full freight here so that should mean something) but comment numbers should be essential. So should time-stamping. And individuals should not have to install a whole raft of 3rd party (and possibly dangerous) add-ons to get any of those features – they should be built into the basic platform.

  43. Woke up this morning to find 60 email notifications from crikey. Went through the unsubscribe thing again, and the emails stopped. Now they’ve started again. I don’t know what’s going on.

  45. Fess

    I haven’t seen what PVO said at the time of Ludlam and waters. But his latest tweets sure sound like he is an apologist for his coalition buddies. Should I be surprised!

  46. Is anyone else not receiving updates to posts? I’ve got nothing newer than this one:

    lizzie
    Lane Sainty‏Verified account @lanesainty · 14h14 hours ago

    Italian mate: “its impossible to forget you’re a citizen… the italian consulate sends me like seven letters a year”

  48. Back to having to refresh to see new comments – which I thought was the problem the whole site revamp was meant to solve.

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