YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7

The second federal poll from YouGov goes against the grain in recording an uptick in support for the Coalition, while also finding a big majority in favour of legalising same-sex marriage.

The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%. However, what’s very unusual is a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result that gives the Coalition a lead of 52-48, the reverse of what the result would be if 2016 preference flows were used, as per the other pollsters. I don’t quite have the confidence to lead a post with “52-48 to Coalition” based such an unorthodox reading, so I’ll be using primary votes for my YouGov headlines for the time being.

The poll also found 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; health and hospitals were rated the most important election issue by 45%, followed by pensions on 33% and job security and unemployment on 31%; 56% supportive of a tax on companies that used robots to fund support for those who lost jobs as a result; and 54% expressing concern at indigenous languages falling into disuse, but only 33% believing the government should do anything about it. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Tuesday, with a sample of a little over 1000.

UPDATE: The Australia Institute has published results of a poll conducted in South Australia by ReachTEL, which shows (after allocating the forced response question from the 7.1% undecided) federal voting intention in the state at 34.3% for the Liberals (down 0.8% on last year’s election), 32.1% for Labor (up 0.6%), 14.9% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 6.4%), 6.6% for the Greens (up 0.4%), 4.6% for One Nation (didn’t field lower house candidates) and 3.9% for Australian Conservatives (unchanged on the Family First vote). There’s also a separate question on Senate voting intention, and while I have my doubts about such an exercise, it has the Liberals on 30.1% (down 2.5%), Labor on 26.1% (down 1.2%), the Nick Xenophon Team on 21.7% (unchanged), the Greens on 8.2% (up 2.3%), One Nation on 4.8% (up 1.8%) and Australian Conservatives on 5.2% (up 2.3% on the Family First vote, for the most encouraging poll result the party has yet received).

The poll also records strong support for the ABC, with 40.4% wanting its funding increased, 33.4% kept as is and only 17.5% reduced; 64.8% opposed to the government cutting funding to the ABC to get support on relaxed media ownership laws from One Nation, with 16.5% supportive; and 56.3% supportive of a strong online presence for the ABC “even if it effects the commercial viability of commercial media outlets”, with 16.4% opposed (the anti-ABC numbers across the three questions being notably similar). The automated phone poll was conducted from 1589 respondents on June 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7”

  1. Ides Of March

    I think most people can judge the underlying attitude when these terms are used. I don’t think we can make a blanket judgement. As I said before, it’s the context. 🙂

  2. I like the fact that SSM is tearing the LNP apart. I just hope its Labor legislation that gets up. I don’t trust the LNP to do the right thing and would prefer to wait than have them do it.

    In the meantime I am enjoying the show

  3. I would rather wait for the ALP/Greens to legalise marriage equality rather than a begrudging, second rate, gritted teeth coalition bill.
    It was the same with aboriginal apology, wasn’t it better to wait for Rudd’s heartfelt and brilliant apology- imagine a Howard mealy mouth, forced attempt.

  4. Torchbearer
    Worse still you can be Truffles would make out is was all their idea and it was they who “made it happen”.

  5. I would rather wait for the ALP/Greens to legalise marriage equality rather than a begrudging, second rate, gritted teeth coalition bill.

    I don’t think it matters. Once same sex marriage is legal it’s legal, end of story. I don’t think it compares with the stolen gen apology, which could well have been a mealy-mouthed half baked effort by the Libs.

  6. My husband is a journalist. Qualified and graded.

    A lot of people write for newspapers, but they aren’t ‘officially’ journalists. You do a Cadetship or a Uni degree to become a proper qualified journalist – where you learn the ethics code and about plagiarism and all that. Takes 4 years. Abbott wrote for newspapers but he wasn’t a trained journalist (god! His command of English would have failed him at the first hurdle).

    The same can be said for all the commentators and columnists that come from other fields. Technically, you might say they’ve done the Cadetship route but I’ll be willing to bet many of them have no idea about the code of ethics/plagiarism etc.

  7. I assume that the fall back position will be to lace marriage equality legislation with all sorts of clauses legitimating as many forms of gay discrimination as they can think of. Here are some back pocket suggestions:
    1. Making it legal for schools to discriminate against gay teachers.
    2. Making it legal for churches to discriminate against gay workers.
    And so on and so forth.
    This mob will never rest.

  8. Boerwar:

    I will wait to see what if any compromise positions are agreed to, but at present we’re as close to marriage equality from this govt as we are to legal euthanasia. The Libs are tearing themselves apart over the issue.

  9. And the ability of the Liberals to put compromises in any SSM legislation is one of the points argued within the Liberal party for them to act now rather than leave it to Labor .

  10. I like the fact that SSM is tearing the LNP apart.

    Yup. So do i.
    The big thing is that it seems that most people see this as a no-brainer, human rights issue.
    That the LNP is way on the wrong side of and playing pure political games with. AND, those political games are, according to the LNP, going to cost a huge amount to play to finance a plebiscite.
    The ONLY way for the LNP to get through this without more damage (in electorate terms) is to legislate in this term of parliament. Or they can schedule a plebiscite for the next election to neutralise the cost issue, and they still have to wear the damage from the delay, and the nasty public “debate” driven by homophobic toerags that will ensue prior to a plebiscite.
    There is no “good” outcome from this for the Libs, but there are “least worst”.
    Their RWNJobbies are the ALP’s best friends though. Dedicated, committed idiots who think they have more public support than they really do.

  11. confessions @ #1220 Sunday, July 16th, 2017 – 1:29 pm

    Boerwar:

    I will wait to see what if any compromise positions are agreed to, but at present we’re as close to marriage equality from this govt as we are to legal euthanasia. The Libs are tearing themselves apart over the issue.

    My re-collection is that the Conservatives will move a motion endorsing the “policy of a Plebescite” to decide SSM legislation changes. This will be be gazumped by others who will endorse a policy change to a ‘conscience” vote. Then, the fireworks begin!

  12. Jeez, if even Malta, very Catholic country that it is, can agree almost unanimously this week to legalise Same Sex Marriage, then what’s stopping Australia, except the Lame Gay Churchy Losers in the Coalition!?! That’s it! That’s all that’s stopping us! And, yes, I admit, there are some of them in the ALP too. However, they no longer have a choice after the next election. 🙂

  13. It has been argued that fracking in USA is not the same as here. But…

    The technical, health and risk problems of unconventional gas are complex and difficult to understand for politicians and governments. In the face of their perceived need for mining development, politicians never mention health. Doctors for the Environment Australia has recently made a detailed submission on health concerns for the Narrabri unconventional gas project in northern NSW which has communities and rural activities similar to the Limestone Coast of SA, which is also threatened by gas development. We suggest the SA government reads it and also notes the view of the Australian Medical Association.

    Against this background the calls by Minister Frydenberg for more gas development and his berating of the Victorian government for their moratorium demonstrate woeful ignorance of the facts, or worse, what could be perceived as a willingness to place rural communities at risk.

    The South Australian government as a leader in energy development should withdraw the threat to the Limestone Coast and avoid blemishing a remarkable record.

    http://indaily.com.au/opinion/2017/07/14/why-fracking-the-south-east-threatens-more-than-agriculture/

  14. CTar1 Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 2:53 pm
    Ab

    [Tones do shorthand?]

    I have doubts that even do longhand.

    ***************************************
    We all know what he does with his hands …..

  15. CTar1
    As fellow cack hander I can sympathise with any difficulty Tones has with long hand. Tones as I would have been brought up in the ink pen days. Have you ever tried writing with an ink pen left handed without smudging ? Much contortion needed.

  16. confessions Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 3:00 pm
    PhoenixRed:
    Are you talking literally or are there some new developments brewing?

    *****************************************************

    Maybe all the Woodwards and Bernsteins wannabes at the Daily Planet have decided it’s time to earn their pay ….. or Robert Mueller is about to run into the nearest telephone box and changed into his superman costume ???????

    brewing ????? – yes, that seems to be the word ….. lots of rumours …..

  17. brewing ????? – yes, that seems to be the word ….. lots of rumours …..

    I’d feel more excited if the rumours translated into actualities. This investigation into Russia hacking is taking forever!

  18. 6 months in, a record low for Trump, with troubles from Russia to health care (POLL)

    Americans give President Donald Trump the lowest six-month approval rating of any president in polls dating back 70 years, punctuated by questions about his competence on the world stage, his effectiveness, the GOP health care plan and Russia’s role in the 2016 election.

    Just 36 percent of Americans polled in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll approve of Trump’s job performance, down 6 points from his 100-day mark, itself a low.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/months-record-low-trump-troubles-russia-health-care/story?id=48639490

  19. Shorthand died out when typecorders came in (then mini tape recorders/note-takers). That was in the 80s if I recall. But all good journos paid their dues, so to speak.

    My hubby took our first Mac (we bought as soon as came on market) into NewsLtd to do some work and when the chief type compositor saw him doing stuff on the page layout program we had at the time, he called the boys up from the print room to show them and then said “We’re F’d” … within 5 years they had to retrain or retire.

    Newspapers and journalism has changed exponentially since then. Subs, the gatekeepers of grammar/punctuation and prevention of libel/slander lawsuits are basically a thing of the past.

    Hubby quit Fairfax voluntarily late last year – his days were probably numbered otherwise (but it wasn’t his main gig so it didn’t matter)

  20. This was still sitting on my tablet from this morning. Submit.

    Did I miss the bit where Insiders took the piss out of the ‘laws of mathematics’?

  21. confessions Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 3:17 pm
    “brewing ????? – yes, that seems to be the word ….. lots of rumours …..”

    I’d feel more excited if the rumours translated into actualities. This investigation into Russia hacking is taking forever!

    *****************************************

    Maybe Trump was the mysterious 8th person at THAT meeting , maybe Manaforts phone is bugged, maybe Pence is on the take, maybe Trumps pee tape was at St Petersburg in Florida not in Russia …… all are on the table …….. but …..maybe the fatal head shot was from the Grassy Knoll ……… shrugs shoulders ….. hopefully soon we will know the answers

  22. Confessions

    There is the rub,are there any “actualities” behind the rumours ? I’m sceptical because oh so often after the initial “bombshell” later reports walk back or even totally refute the claims. But of course by then attention was on the next “bombshell”.

  23. Jenauthor – I learnt short-hand. I can write it incredibly fast. Too bad I can’t understand what I’ve written.

  24. guytaur @ #1153 Sunday, July 16th, 2017 – 10:59 am

    eg A son and father were injured in a car accident. The son is on the operating table. The surgeon says I can’t operate on the son he is my child. Who is the surgeon?

    The answer is obvious but many cannot answer it correctly because they see the surgeon as a man by default.

    When I first heard this one, in 1982 in a TAFE Women’s Studies course, I could not see the answer. That really woke me up.

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