Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition cops a two-point hit on the primary vote from Essential, as new results elsewhere cover same-sex marriage and voting intention in cabinet ministers’ seats.

Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average records Labor improving a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, puttings its lead north of Newspoll at 54-46. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, leaving it steady with an unchanged Labor, while the Greens and One Nation are steady at 11% and 7%. The poll features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 37% and up four on disapproval to 49%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 36% and up one to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister remains about the same, at 41-27 compared with 39-26 a month ago. In other findings, it turns out you get a much stronger response on trust in secure storage of personal data if you say “security agencies such as the Australian Federal Police, local police and ASIO” (64% a lot of or some trust, 32% little or none) than you do if you say “the government” (43% and 52%), while telcos and private companies rate considerably worse again.

Also in polldom:

• The Australia Institute has also produced results of polls conducted in cabinet ministers’ seats to emphasise the point that the government is on the wrong side of public opinion in the blue belt on such matters as taxpayer subsidies for the Adani Carmichael coal mine project. More to the point, they also feature results on voting intention, with samples from 627 to 692. These suggest swings of 2.4% against Scott Morrison in Cook, 3.8% against Greg Hunt in Flinders, 5.7% against Julie Bishop in Curtin, 6.8% against Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth and 7.3% swing against Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong, but better results for the government in the two most marginal of the seats covered, with no swing at all against Christopher Pyne in Sturt and a swing of 4.4% in favour of Peter Dutton in Dickson.

• A second tranche from Newspoll finds 46% in favour of a plebiscite on same-sex marriage versus 39% for “have the politicians decide”. This reverses a curious result on the same subject in September, which had the respective numbers at 39% and 48% – although then there was the presumably significant difference that the question stressed a plebiscite in February. Essential Research’s poll last week found 59% supporting a “national vote” and 29% the matter being “decided by parliament”, despite the wording of the latter option being less unappealing than Newspoll’s invocation of “politicians”.

UPDATE (YouGov/Fifty Acres): The second YouGov poll for Fifty Acres has strayed well away from the rest of the field, with the Coalition bouncing three points on the primary vote to 36% while Labor drops one to 33%, with the Greens and One Nation steady on 12% and 7%, and the remainder down two to 12%. Previous election preferences would place Labor’s lead slightly above 52-48, which isn’t too radically. But YouGov’s respondent allocation method, which presents those who complete the online survey with a mock ballot paper to fill out, continues to elicit extraordinary results: enough in this case to give the Coalition a lead of 52-48.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

232 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. William,

    Thank you for your dissection of You gov polling methodology as it currently stands.

    As it appears to be a work in progress I was wondering why you would even bother including it in Bludger track at this point even with a low weighting ? It is not as if we are currently short of polling to put into bludger track.

    Thanks in advance for any feedback.

    Cheers.

  2. Surely you jest. It’s a freedom of speech issue.

    Yes it’s interesting that idiots like MacSween who make highly offensive remarks about people who say things they disagree with, themselves use the free speech defence when people return fire on THEIR offensive remarks.

    Perhaps Chris Smith could do Australia a community service and explain the concept of hypocrisy to Ms MacSween. Assuming of course he even understands it himself.

  3. Albany’s last living link to the first Anzac dawn service was farewelled at a funeral service last week.

    Joan Bayly died peacefully in her sleep, aged 94, on June 23.

    She was six years old when she attended the first dawn service at Mt Clarence 85 years ago, becoming part of Australian history.

    Mrs Bayly walked hand-in-hand with her father, James Atkinson Dodds, a veteran of WW1, as they followed Padre Arthur White up Mt Clarence on April 25, 1930.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/albany-advertiser/last-link-lost-ng-b88535374z

  4. briefly @ #798 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:39 am

    Grimace…the Libs know they have been thrashed on the ground in several elections…Victoria, Queensland, the Canning by-election and 2016 DD and in WA. But they are trying to get into gear. I for one do not underestimate them. We have to remember they have been very adroit over many years at communicating with Lib-positive voters. They are out of touch at the moment. But they will be trying to figure out how to respond. The Abbott shenanigans have not helped them, though, to be sure, everyone can now say that Rightist Revivalism is a no-goer.

    The L/NP need to do some serious soul searching, the campaigning world has changed and they are failing to adapt.

    The L/NP has historically enjoyed a significant financial advantage over Labor and has had strong support from the MSM. For various reasons, their historical funding sources are drying up and the influence of the MSM is a shadow of what it once was. They are not coping well with the loss of their historical advantages over Labor and are being left behind by modern campaigning techniques.

    Before the L/NP can implement a strategy to match or counter the ground campaign of Labor and the progressives, they need to address the internal cultural issues which prevent them mounting an effective strategy to counter this ground campaign. Remember, culture eats strategy for breakfast (credit: Peter Drucker).

    The difficulty for Liberals in matching the ground campaign is that Labor did not develop its field campaigning strategy overnight. Its prowess in the area is the product of decades of cultural development and hard work. I’m sure that many in the senior levels of the L/NP over the years have lamented the poor state of their field campaigning relative to Labor. If it was simply a matter of wishing such a capability into existence it would have happened long ago.

    The next few years will be very interesting times for the future of the L/NP as we know it now.

  5. frednk @ #207 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 9:02 pm


    grimace
    Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 8:40 pm

    frednk @ #174 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 7:18 pm
    There must be something he can be charged with.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/12/conservative-commentator-run-over-yassmin-abdel-magied
    Surely you jest. It’s a freedom of speech issue.

    I know your are being sarcastic; but I will respond. Is yelling fire in a crowded theater a freedom of speech issue?

    That depends on the colour of your skin, your sex and which religion you identify with.


  6. grimace
    Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 9:26 pm
    ….
    That depends on the colour of your skin, your sex and which religion you identify with.

    I suppose.
    Old while male: Silly old git.
    Young brown male: Terrorist.

  7. frednk @ #207 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 9:02 pm


    grimace
    Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 8:40 pm

    frednk @ #174 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 7:18 pm
    There must be something he can be charged with.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/12/conservative-commentator-run-over-yassmin-abdel-magied
    Surely you jest. It’s a freedom of speech issue.

    I know your are being sarcastic; but I will respond. Is yelling fire in a crowded theater a freedom of speech issue?

    So we are absolutely clear, IMO the attitude, views and behaviour of News Limited (in particular the GG, the DT & the Hun), shock jocks and well known RWNJ federal politicians towards anyone who dares challenge their views or preconceptions of the world is an absolute disgrace and they have my unqualified condemnation.

  8. frednk @ #214 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 9:28 pm


    grimace
    Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 9:26 pm
    ….
    That depends on the colour of your skin, your sex and which religion you identify with.

    I suppose.
    Old while male: Silly old git.
    Young brown male: Terrorist.

    Isn’t the middle aged white man engaging in rigourous debate and exercising his right to freedom of speech?

  9. Confessions
    Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 8:56 pm

    There have been several crimes, defined as terrorist acts, in which vehicles have been driven at pedestrians, resulting in numerous deaths. They can hardly be unaware that two Australians were killed last month in London in an event that began with the use of a vehicle as a weapon.

    MacSween was indulging herself by sneeringly toying with the idea of killing someone on what are purely political grounds. As we are too-well aware, politically-inspired murder is one of the defining features of terrorism. The citizens of Sydney don’t need to go to a mosque or a One Nation rally to hear messages of hate. They only need to turn on the wireless. 2GB is now Terror Radio.

  10. Thanks for the YouGov info WB.

    Does amping up the uneducated make polls look more like they are reflecting current events?

    Obviously not because recent news wouldn’t give the Libs such a bump.

  11. Grimace
    Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 9:24 pm

    The next few years will be very interesting times for the future of the L/NP as we know it now.

    The Tories are no longer “safe hands” (if they ever were). Instead, they denote obstruction, deceit, insult, weakness, cynicism and slyness. I think it is actually even worse than that.

    There’s no doubt that the existential questions – questions around the economy, the environment, the movement of peoples, the efficacy of the political order – that we all face have upset the certainties of the Tory world-view. They have been drawn into reactionary mistakes, including being duped by conspiracy theories and by a misplaced sense of victimhood. Really, this is cowardice, mistakenly and foolishly taken to be “strength”. They are afraid of the future and of the rest of the community. As we know, where fear walks, hate follows not far behind. So this is Liberalism these days. They are weak, afraid and consumed by hatreds.

    The very best thing that can happen is they go back to the voters and listen to them….learn from them….start from scratch.

    We deserve, require and will insist on far more than fear, weakness and hate from our political parties.

  12. Briefly as quoted by Grimace @9:24PM:

    “I for one do not underestimate them. We have to remember they have been very adroit over many years at communicating with Lib-positive voters. They are out of touch at the moment. But they will be trying to figure out how to respond.”

    I do not underestimate them either. They may have less than 50% of the voters prepared to vote for or preference them at the moment, but they have some very powerful vested interests, the business community, most of the mainstream media and 95% of the money in their corner.

  13. http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/government-admits-no-review-of-leaving-euratom-agency-was-ever-carried-out-a3586071.html

    Tory delinquency reaches astonishing new depths.

    The Government came under fire today after it admitted it did not carry out a formal assessment of the impact of quitting the Euratom agency.

    Former minister Ed Vaizey said the failure was “surprising” because of possible consequences for jobs, energy supplies, research and medicine.

    MPs stepped up pressure on ministers this morning by holding a Commons debate on a decision they suspect was taken in 10 Downing Street with minimal consultation.

    They were demanding to see the legal advice that led the Government to insist that Britain had to leave at the same time as quitting the European Union.

    Euratom is the body that governs the transportation of radioactive materials needed in nuclear energy and research.

  14. Tonight on Twitter – Trump is delusional:

    The W.H. is functioning perfectly, focused on HealthCare, Tax Cuts/Reform & many other things.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/885131482397908992

    …and also blaming Hillary and Democrats, seemingly in a “yeah, I robbed the bank, but look at that other bank robber who’s walking free; I should be able to get away with it too” kind of way:

    Why aren’t the same standards placed on the Democrats. Look what Hillary Clinton may have gotten away with. Disgraceful!

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/885128373441355777

  15. William Bowe
    Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 3:49 am
    After much careful reflection, I’ve decided that no woman who comes here should ever have to put up with being addressed as “sweetie”. If Bemused doesn’t offer Confessions an unreserved apology that’s untainted in any way by self-justification or smart-arsery, I’m going to ban him.]
    I apologise unreservedly for, on one occasion, referring to Confessions as ‘sweetie’.
    I know William is extremely fair and I now look forward to grovelling apologies from those who continually heap abuse on me, notably among them, Confessions and Briefly.

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