Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition cops a two-point hit on the primary vote from Essential, as new results elsewhere cover same-sex marriage and voting intention in cabinet ministers’ seats.

Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average records Labor improving a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, puttings its lead north of Newspoll at 54-46. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, leaving it steady with an unchanged Labor, while the Greens and One Nation are steady at 11% and 7%. The poll features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 37% and up four on disapproval to 49%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 36% and up one to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister remains about the same, at 41-27 compared with 39-26 a month ago. In other findings, it turns out you get a much stronger response on trust in secure storage of personal data if you say “security agencies such as the Australian Federal Police, local police and ASIO” (64% a lot of or some trust, 32% little or none) than you do if you say “the government” (43% and 52%), while telcos and private companies rate considerably worse again.

Also in polldom:

• The Australia Institute has also produced results of polls conducted in cabinet ministers’ seats to emphasise the point that the government is on the wrong side of public opinion in the blue belt on such matters as taxpayer subsidies for the Adani Carmichael coal mine project. More to the point, they also feature results on voting intention, with samples from 627 to 692. These suggest swings of 2.4% against Scott Morrison in Cook, 3.8% against Greg Hunt in Flinders, 5.7% against Julie Bishop in Curtin, 6.8% against Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth and 7.3% swing against Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong, but better results for the government in the two most marginal of the seats covered, with no swing at all against Christopher Pyne in Sturt and a swing of 4.4% in favour of Peter Dutton in Dickson.

• A second tranche from Newspoll finds 46% in favour of a plebiscite on same-sex marriage versus 39% for “have the politicians decide”. This reverses a curious result on the same subject in September, which had the respective numbers at 39% and 48% – although then there was the presumably significant difference that the question stressed a plebiscite in February. Essential Research’s poll last week found 59% supporting a “national vote” and 29% the matter being “decided by parliament”, despite the wording of the latter option being less unappealing than Newspoll’s invocation of “politicians”.

UPDATE (YouGov/Fifty Acres): The second YouGov poll for Fifty Acres has strayed well away from the rest of the field, with the Coalition bouncing three points on the primary vote to 36% while Labor drops one to 33%, with the Greens and One Nation steady on 12% and 7%, and the remainder down two to 12%. Previous election preferences would place Labor’s lead slightly above 52-48, which isn’t too radically. But YouGov’s respondent allocation method, which presents those who complete the online survey with a mock ballot paper to fill out, continues to elicit extraordinary results: enough in this case to give the Coalition a lead of 52-48.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

232 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Donald Trump Jr. Just Released Smoking Gun Emails That Prove Russia Was Supporting Trump

    Donald Trump Jr. dug himself and his father in deeper on the Russia scandal by releasing transcripts of emails that show Russia was supporting Donald Trump for president, and that Donald Trump Sr. had a direct connection to Russia.

    The emails literally say that what Russia was doing was part of their support for Trump and that Trump himself had a direct connection to Russia. Donald Trump Jr. released these emails to back up his story that he was lured into the meeting by a promise of Russian dirt on Hillary Clinton.

    The whole thing has now blown up in his face, as Trump Jr. is releasing evidence that the Russians were supporting the Trump campaign and that the Trump camp was open to cutting a deal with Russia in exchange for dirt that they could use on Hillary Clinton.

  2. Emails show Russian prosecutor offered Trump Jr. information on Clinton

    U.S. President Donald Trump’s eldest son on Tuesday released an email chain which refers to a top Russian government prosecutor as offering the Trump campaign damaging information about Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

    “The Crown prosecutor of Russia … offered to provide the Trump campaign with some official documents and information that would incriminate Hillary and her dealings with Russia and would be very useful to your father,” said the June 3, 2016, email to Donald Trump Jr. from publicist Rob Goldstone.

    “This is obviously very high level and sensitive information but is part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump,” according to the email posted by Trump Jr. on Twitter.

  3. Trump Releases A Crazed Statement That Doesn’t Deny That His Son Colluded With Russia

    The White House is pretending that everything is fine, as Donald Trump released a statement praising his son for being a “high-quality person,” but never denying the allegation that Donald Trump Jr. colluded with Russia.

    Deputy Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders read Trump’s statement to the same White House reporters that he is too scared to face, “My son is a high-quality person and I applaud his transparency.”

    There is no denial in that statement that his son colluded with Russia. It is more Trump double talk about quality people and transparency. The only reason that Trump Jr. released his emails was that The New York Times was about to break a major story.

    As his presidency burns, Trump is talking about high-quality people. The response from the White House is crazy as this president is completely detached from reality.

  4. ‘Put him in a home’: David Letterman is tired of all the Trump ‘whining’ and calls for action

    David Letterman is tired of being “victimized” by President Donald Trump and wants him removed from office.

    “We know there’s something wrong, but what I’m tired of is people, daily, nightly, on all the cable news shows telling us there’s something wrong,” Letterman said Monday, during an interview with the Associated Press.

    He told the AP he feels bad for Trump voters, who he believes were duped by promises to address their very real concerns — which will need a genuine problem solver.

    “I wish it was Trump, but it’s not, so let’s just stop whining about what a goon he is and figure out a way to take him aside and put him in a home,” Letterman said.

  5. ‘Unlike anything I could have imagined’: Dan Rather laments ‘grotesque’ revelation of Don Jr.’s emails

    Famed journalist Dan Rather on Tuesday reacted to Donald Trump Jr.’s bombshell emails showing a willingness to collude with Russia to bring down Hillary Clinton, writing the revelation “is unlike anything I could even have imagined.”

    “Only a hypocrite, a cynic or a fool could argue that this development can be innocuously explained,” Rather wrote.

    “We need a reality check,” he continued. “This is decision time, especially for our elected officials. Which side of history will you be on?”

  6. Report: Washington Post has proof Donald Trump was personally involved in Donald Trump Jr. Russia conspiracy

    The Wall Street Journal dropped a minor bombshell with its story of Republican operative Peter W. Smith colluding with Russia for Donald Trump’s benefit. Then the New York Times dropped a major bombshell with its story of Donald Trump Jr. conspiring with the Kremlin to rig the election in his father’s favor. Now comes word that the other big newspaper, the Washington Post, has the mother of all bombshells.

    The Washington Post has the goods on Donald Trump himself, according to political insider Claude Taylor: “WaPo story is (according to sources) irrefutable evidence of Trump’s personal involvement in the conspiracy” . There has been widespread buzz for a week or more that the Post has been working on a bombshell proving Trump-Russia collusion. Now we just have to wait for it to be complete and hit the wire, even as the New York Times keeps driving its own stakes into the heart of all things Trump.

  7. collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian officials. | Getty

    Trump Jr. delivers ‘smoking gun’ to Mueller

    The email chain released by the president’s son shows an intent to collude with Russia, veteran prosecutors and white-collar defense attorneys say.

    The smoking gun, according to the attorneys, is the wording throughout the emails that Trump Jr. exchanges with a broker for one of his father’s former Russian business partners. At one point, Trump Jr. responds “love it” at the prospect of material that would “incriminate” Clinton. In addition, the source of the material says the offer of the material is “part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump.”

    “Extremely damaging,” said former Justice Department prosecutor Peter Zeidenberg. “Certainly shows an intent to collude with Russian government.”

    A white-collar Washington lawyer who is representing a client mired in the Russia probe said there’s little doubt Mueller’s team welcomes what Trump Jr. just delivered about his Russia meeting via social media – that is, if they didn’t already have the messages through their own investigation.

    “They’ve been handed a smoking gun,” the attorney said. “What none of us know is what else he’s got. He may have had all these emails already. He may have reams of paper. There’s no way to know what’s under the water line in terms of this investigation.”

  8. Morning all. The new revelations about Trump, senior and junior, are appalling but not surprising. I still do not understand why people think it means the end of Trump? The republican congress will not impeach him. Republican appointed justice officials will not prosecute him. The Supreme Court is about to be stacked with more republican appointed judges. USA is no longer a functioning democracy.

  9. On the plus side, Trump still does not control every US state, and as Al Gore hinted at, they are acting. Yesterday I pointed to public transit funding measures passed in Seattle ($54 billion) and Los Angeles ($120 billion). Ides of March referred to a story whereby Trump will be pulling the federal funding for transit (public transport in english). This is true and it will delay some projects. See
    But overall it will not stop these programs. For example, Trump could do a Tony Abbott and pull $5 billion in federal funds out of the Seattle program, but the remaing $49 billion will still happen. So Gore is correct – the majority of Americans (in their large cities) are acting. They just won’t have the support of their federal government.

  10. GG
    I think they are just managing their own base. That exchange is insightful about Assange though isn’t it. It shows Assange does not really fight for any principle, but sees anyone who opposes “his” side of politics as the enemy (his words) and his side of politics includes people like Putin and Trump. Assange is no friend of democracy.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Oh Dear! What has the little Trump done?
    From Richard Wolffe. “Trump Junior’s message to Russian operatives? I’m open for business”. He just moved the whole FBI investigation – and the impeachment machine – several yards closer to the Oval Office. For that alone, his judgment is nothing short of disastrous. It’s now getting serious.
    Quite interesting reading here as Mark Kenny looks at the future of the major parties. His wrap up is good.
    If cabinet ministers think their orchestrated denials of intra-party issues is going to stop the rot they have another think coming.
    A fuming Janet Albrechsten casts “Harry Potter and the Disintegrating Party”. She says neither Turnbull nor Abbot has the magic touch. Google.
    Michelle Grattan says that Turnbull is finding the “sensible centre” a slippery patch.
    Paul Bongiorno writes that the hardest part of Turnbull’s trip will be coming home!
    Peter van Onselen writes that it’s the reactionaries that are destroying the Liberals’ philosophical foundations. Google.’
    Ross Gittins on the work in front of Gonski 2.01.
    More from Adele Ferguson on Dominoes Pizza franchise arrangements.
    Meanwhile the franchisers’ lobby group continues to put pressure on the government to water down proposed controls. And the energizer bunny Bruce Bilson is right in the middle of it.

  12. Section 2 . . .

    Nicholas Stuart writes about unemployment in Adelaide and wonders if it is the “canary in the coal mine” when it comes to the loss of traditional industries.
    Labor has accused NBN Co. of “spraying taxpayers money up the wall” and asked why the government-owned corporation believes it is above providing information about corporate hospitality to a Senate estimates committee.
    Barnaby Joyce says he’s pushing ahead with the Coalition plans to force relocations of government departments from Canberra, despite the policy seeing him cast as “the devil incarnate”.
    Jennifer Hewitt asks whatever happened to enterprise bargaining. Google.
    Millions of dollars have been extracted by the NSW government from poker machine profits in Sydney’s most disadvantaged council area, Fairfield, for a statewide infrastructure fund, yet none of it has been spent on facilities there. Regressive taxation at its very worst.
    People are deserting mainstream media in droves but the reasons cannot be blamed solely on Google or Facebook. James O’Neill writes on why the MSM is failing.,10493
    Theresa May’s first year was awful. Her next promises to be disastrous.
    The SMH editorialises “This week, Australia has seen more calls for “go back to where you came from” directed towards high profile identities, and we have to look at why. On Monday, a group called “Aussie Nationalists” posted signs around Sydney that called for Waleed Aly, Yassmin Abdel-Magied, Chinese investors and Apex gang members to be deported. The signs read “Gotta catch and deport them all”.”
    Opinion is divided on whether or not we should ignore Donald Trump’s regular, seemingly obsessive, tweeting and focus instead on what his administration is really doing. But The Independent Australia’s political editor Dr Martin Hirst argues that Trump’s tweets are the U.S. President in action.,10490

  13. Section 3 . . .

    The show for mental giants, “Fox & Friends” has withdrawn a report about former FBI Director James Comey that was debunked hours earlier. Nearly 15 hours after reporting that Comey revealed “top secret” information in his personal memos about his meetings with President Donald Trump, the show admitted the notes “did not have top secret info.”
    More regulatory trouble for Bellamy’s as it may have to hand back money to retail participators in it recent capital raising share issue. Google.
    Trump and high ranking members of the White House staff were sued on Tuesday by the a free speech advocacy group, which alleges the president’s blocking of dissenting Twitter users violates the US Constitution. Only in America!
    In what one aviation expert called a near-miss of what could have been the largest aviation disaster ever, an Air Canada pilot on Friday narrowly avoided a tragic mistake: landing on the San Francisco International Airport taxiway instead of the appropriate runway.
    Peter Lewis writes that Australians don’t seem to mind that authorities can access their data but we still don’t know the role of government in maximising benefits and minimising risks.
    A tax office staffer has been disciplined after publishing a step-by-step guide to hack mobile phones, potentially teaching criminals to steal sensitive information. The disclosure reveals the Australian Tax Office’s (ATO) fraud investigation tactics and a push for powers normally associated with police and intelligence agencies.
    The ABC has been quietly slashing its Australian shows.
    Ranald McDonald writes that now more than ever we need an independent ABC.
    Foreign secretary Boris Johnson has hit out at ‘extortionate’ demands in event of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. They can go whistle he said.

  14. Section 4 . . .

    Caroline Wilson writes that just after the Ali Fahour issue the revelation on Monday that a male senior AFL staffer had an affair with a younger female colleague has created a significant degree of discomfort at the game’s head office.
    Radiologists fear patients will soon be forced to pay more for scans used to diagnose some of the most common forms of cancer if an impasse over the Medicare rebate freeze is not resolved. Accusing the Turnbull government of breaking a promise to thaw the rebate freeze, radiologists are launching a potentially bruising campaign in surgeries across the country.
    Jeff Kennett looks for a bit of attention as he slams Turnbull’s judgement.

  15. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox on the broad church that is the Liberal Party.

    Broelman and the Trump/Putin cybersecurity initiative.

    Wishful thinking from Pail Zanetti.

    Reg Leahy’s view of the conservatives within the Liberal Party.

    Alan Moir with a perspective on life in North Korea.

    Glorious work from David Rowe!

    Ron Tandberg on how Trump is being shunned.
    Mark Knight and calls to upgrade the Victoria Market.
    Pat Clement on yet another Menzies exhumation.

  16. ‘morning all, beutiful day here with a heavy frost and bright clear blue sky. Watching Trump and Turnbull has me anxious for a defining event that will end it all for both of them. The process of dealing with Trump seems to be making gradual progress but at the same time, the institutions and procedures that keep democracy on track are taking a huge hit as the Repugs do everything they can to keep their man from any fallout from his idiocy. Wonder what will be left in the end?
    Turnbull must be a headache for the MSM and I suppose we should just get out the popcorn and watch that will some satisfaction. Anyway, lots to do today and it would all be for the better if each of the above situations would resolve themselves in a way that both the proponents truely deserve.

  17. Interesting thing happens in that SMH story on Adelaide when I’m reading it on my phone – the comments section indicates 24 comments and begins to load but then changes quickly to 0 and the note “comments are now closed”.

    Did they delete the whole comment sectiom or is it a technical issue I wonder

  18. Thanks BK. I rarely say this, but a sliding scale on car excise based on CO2 emissions is actually a good idea from the Turnbull government! Such things are common throughout the OECD and with no local industry to protect it makes sense. Having fewer huge AWD wagons on the road is an easy way to meet emissions targets. Plus it will raise revenue. The fact that some industry lobby shills are complaining confirms it will work.

  19. Having read Kenny’s article, it’s interesting how the media skirt around Malcolm’s fundamental problem – his failure to ‘hold out’ for better terms before assuming the leadership.

    The Liberal party needed him at that point more than he needed them. The polls were in death spiral with an election not far down the track. Yet Malcolm acted like a supplicant, not a saviour, agreeing to restrictions on his leadership which countered not just his own stated principles (we know how much they’re worth) but the public’s perception of him.

    He needed to come in as a PM who understood what the public wanted and was determined to deliver it. If he’d done that, and the Liberals’ polling improved – which it would have – the RWNJs may not have shut up, but they would have been largely ignored, with any criticisms answered with ‘but, the polls…’

    I don’t know why the media ignore this.

  20. Thanks PR and BK for today’s wrap up. Things look to be getting hotter in Trumplandia, I just hope the end is in sight finally on this disaster of a POTUS.

  21. The New York Times
    54 mins ·
    From Frank Bruni in The New York Times Opinion Section:
    “Sometimes the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. Sometimes the apple is also considerably dimmer than the tree. And sometimes the apple must be thrown under the bus so that the tree and a few of its most crucial limbs don’t tumble to the forest floor, where they’ll be chopped up and used as firewood by Democrats.”

  22. Morning bludgers

    Appreciate today’s roundup!

    The Trump Imbroglio has definitely ramped up. The msm obviously held back until after Independence Day and the G20 summit. No doubt Trump’s conduct at the summit made the msm job easy to report on the latest disclosures.
    The question is when will the GOP do what is required and get these crooks and Traitors away from the seat of power

  23. zoomster @ #21 Wednesday, July 12th, 2017 – 8:15 am

    Having read Kenny’s article, it’s interesting how the media skirt around Malcolm’s fundamental problem – his failure to ‘hold out’ for better terms before assuming the leadership.

    The Liberal party needed him at that point more than he needed them. The polls were in death spiral with an election not far down the track. Yet Malcolm acted like a supplicant, not a saviour, agreeing to restrictions on his leadership which countered not just his own stated principles (we know how much they’re worth) but the public’s perception of him.

    He needed to come in as a PM who understood what the public wanted and was determined to deliver it. If he’d done that, and the Liberals’ polling improved – which it would have – the RWNJs may not have shut up, but they would have been largely ignored, with any criticisms answered with ‘but, the polls…’

    I don’t know why the media ignore this.

    Turnbull’s only plan was to be PM. He’d been deposed by the same people he’d been grovelling to achieve that objective when Opposition leader. So, he was quite prepared to sacrifice policy credibility this time if that was what was required.
    Lulled by his apparent ascendent popularity he did not see the need to change or develop further. Afterall, he was Malcolm the Magnificent, saviour of the Liberal Party and Australia.
    Unfortunately, he barely scraped home in the the election meant to confirm his omnipotence. Polls have continued to drift away and Malcolm remains shackled to the deals that made him PM and which are noticeably on the nose with the voters. His critics in his Party can barely disguise their glee.

  24. Any poll that compares plebiscite to “have the politicians decide” without also adding “via a free vote” should be taken out back and sent to live on a farm.

    Currently, if we let the politicians decide, the decision will be no. This is because a single coalition MP can bring down the government. There are a couple of nutters who would be willing to do that.

    That’s why the plebiscite has support in polls. The Coalition and the media have successfully made it appear to be a binary choice between gay marriage via a plebiscite, or politicians deciding to do nothing and maintaining the status quo.

  25. this tweet sums up the Trump imbroglio perfectly

    Eric Garland @ericgarland

    The real treason that will shock the world will not be that they took Russian help.

    It how they planned to destroy democracy.

  26. victoria Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 8:41 am

    The Trump Imbroglio has definitely ramped up. The msm obviously held back until after Independence Day and the G20 summit. No doubt Trump’s conduct at the summit made the msm job easy to report on the latest disclosures.


    The ‘Did Trump’s Campaign Collude’ Debate Is Over. The Only Question Now Is How Much.

    .Not long ago, it was fashionable for pundits to assert there was no evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia. That line was shaky at the time, and has been quickly blown to smithereens. We have gone from evidence of collusion to proof, with emails establishing the campaign’s clear interest in accepting Moscow’s help to win the election.

    The revelatory emails suggest other possible channels of collusion. One email from Goldstone states, “I can send this info to your father via Rhona” — presumably Rhona Graff, Donald Trump’s personal assistant — thereby implying that President Trump may have received the information himself, and not merely through his aides.

    On a broader plane, Trump is a swindler who partners with mobsters and has built his life around the ethos that the logic of winning overpowers any other morality. The most sinister versions of the collusion scenario have been treated as unlikely or paranoid hypotheses. But it is the explanation most consistent with distinct sleaziness that defines Trump and which he has always looked for in his partners, from Roy Cohn to Manafort. To imagine that Trump might have had the chance to benefit politically from Russian espionage, and turned it down out of a sense of responsibility, is the unlikeliest scenario of all.

  27. The Libs swapped to Turnbull because of the polls, apparently. They decided that policies weren’t the issue, it was personality. So bye, bye Abbott.

    In comes Turnbull, who has pretty much done everything that has been asked of him (ie not changing any policy settings), yet they still languish in the polls. They have in the top job the one person who is relatively popular with the general public and Turnbull is still supporting all the Monkey Pod’s positions, yet they are still agitating against him. So now everyone can blame “division” in the LNP for their standing in the polls.

    You’d think Turnbull is smart enough to:
    1) know that the problem is POLOCY and not anything else. They simply aren’t doing things voters want them to do;
    2) realise that nothing he does will ever get a round of applause from the Monkey Pod. They will continue to agitate because, like their simian leader, it’s what they do. Therefore;
    3) work out that the only way to swing the polls back is to tweak a whole raft of their policies to make them more palatable to voters and to tell the Monkey Pod to fuck off.

    Yes, it may cause a split in the Coalition – and maybe even in the Liberal Party itself – but history will blame Abbott, not Turnbull.

    It seems to me there is all upside for Turnbull and very little downside. He has a chance to be a true statesman … but will he step up to the plate? One gets the sense he wants to, but keeps losing his nerve.

  28. Voice Endeavour @ #26 Wednesday, July 12th, 2017 – 8:48 am

    Any poll that compares plebiscite to “have the politicians decide” without also adding “via a free vote” should be taken out back and sent to live on a farm.

    Currently, if we let the politicians decide, the decision will be no. This is because a single coalition MP can bring down the government. There are a couple of nutters who would be willing to do that.

    That’s why the plebiscite has support in polls. The Coalition and the media have successfully made it appear to be a binary choice between gay marriage via a plebiscite, or politicians deciding to do nothing and maintaining the status quo.

    The question is whether the LNP politicians and Party consider SSM as a a big enough deal to break your “binary” analysis of the politics here.
    You might think the SSM issue is an existential threat to the LNP. But, is it really?

  29. ..and Turnbull could say, very firmly, that he wasn’t being Labor-lite, but true to the principles everyone knew he had, and mount an argument that these principles were thoroughly in line with traditional Australian Liberalism.

    Except he won’t, because Effort.

  30. In the end, impeachment is political, not legal, and the House G.O.P. probably won’t impeach for anything short of a transcript of a call between Trump and Putin in which the words “yes, I want you to hack their servers big-league, Vladimir” appear in black-and-white. And even then ….

    But right now, the 2018 congressional elections promise to be a de facto referendum on impeachment. There are enough sparks in the smoke; there will probably be fire for some of Trump’s intimates before another year is out.

    And as for the president himself — well, to conclude where I began, anyone presuming his innocence at this point should have all the confidence of Chris Christie awaiting his cabinet appointment, or Sean Spicer reading over the day’s talking points. Keep an eye on that Trump-monogrammed rug under your feet; it may not be there for long.

    A mea culpa from a columnist who only 6 weeks ago wrote there wasn’t much to the Trump-Russia thing.

  31. How can my auto spell checker decide that I meant to type ‘gave’ when I actually typed ‘have’ – which was both correct and in context – yet still not recognise that ‘polocy’ isn’t even a word …

  32. PhoenixRed

    I have checked out some commentary online. The prevailing view is that it is still a long way off from Trump being ousted from the WH. Of course, unless he resigns which he won’t do unless he knows a full pardon is in the offering.
    So how long this shit show continues is anyone’s guess. My own guess of it being done and dusted within six months is fast running out!!

  33. Great set of links BK. Thanks as always.

    The article from IA counter to the lame Media Watch ‘analysis’ of why the MSM is failing – all the fault of Google and Facebook.
    As the article stated, description is not a diagnosis, and Paul Barry really should have been able to do better than the half-baked reporting, which in itself is a symptom of the problems plaguing the media industry.

    I don’t know what other business, apart from the LNP, that so consistently looks elsewhere for the cause of its decline, rather than actually examine the product that it is providing.

  34. The proposed “car carbon tax” will join SSM as another battleground between Turnbull and the RW. Although Turnbull has denied it is government policy, there is no way the public service would have developed a detailed proposal and consulted with industry, without Ministerial knowledge and/or approval.

    The comments on this DT article are what you would expect. Google “Proposed new ‘carbon tax’ on cars would raise prices by more than $5000”

  35. Zoomster’s point that the party’s need for Turnbull was such that he could have and should have called the shots from the outset is salient except that the RWNJs were so recalcitrant, pigheaded and happy to sacrifice govt before policy change (and still are), and because he was still scarred from his previous loss, and because basically he’s as weak as piss, he capitulated for the sake of basking in the glow. Remember his glorious preachy agile nation bulldust, bedazzled by his own rhetoric. He’s no statesman, never will be. He’s a shill. He’s a Republican and an Elizabethan. He’s whatever it takes.

  36. Good Morning


    Yes it really is. Thats why it keeps coming up. Its a totemic issue as seen by the issue being used by Pyne in his speech to make the point of moderate ascendency.

    Next cab off the rank will be the emissions standards for cars. Thus the ambitious sensible policy draft sent out then denied to be coming in by Frydenberg as not being a carbon tax.

    Agree with SSM or not it is along with some sensible policies on climate being used to test the numbers and how much bite the right wing still have and how much the Nats will let Turnbull do.

    They are being used especially equal marriage because there is such vehement opposition from the likes of Abbott Christensen and company. This on an issue the polls show the public is fully in favour of.

    Like it or not this is a red line test for the survival of the “broad church” of the LNP. Lose this battle and the LNP will be just another fringe party like One Nation and PHON as it tears itself apart.

  37. Citizen

    Not doing the carbon emissions things will be seen for what it is. Caving in to vested interests. State LNP have no trouble increasing living costs with car registration and the like.

    Turnbull could very easily counter the cost of living excuse by compensating with a reduction in the fuel excise if that was the real crunch issue. Of course its not. Its all just theatre as its cave in or not cave in. Thats the question.

  38. Vic
    The wheels of justic grind slowly. Trump is nowhere near impeachment. Meetings, emails, denials, lies and panic by the Trump team are known. They point to collusion, but as yet there is no public proof that the President of the United States worked with the foreign enemy of Russia to influence the election. But here’s the thing – imagine what Robert Mueller knows and has in his possession, given what the NYT and others have in their possession. It will be Mueller – and not the media or twitter verse – who will make the final call, and that could well stretch into next year or beyond.

  39. Just sayin’.

    Vox‏Verified account @voxdotcom · Jun 30

    The average cost of an MRI in the US: $1,119
    In Switzerland: $503
    In Australia: $215

  40. Al Pal

    The leaks are doing some good. They are getting in the way of the GOP controlled congress being able to pass legislation. The reality of the Russia thing is that it has the GOP fighting how to defend the President and how to think limit the damage to save the furniture.

    Its getting close to where some GOP person may be the brave one to stand up and call for impeachment. It just takes the self interest horse to see that as less damage than continuing to have Trump as President evidence or not.

    After all he has shown he is unfit for the office already trashing norms like not filling government positions. That alone should be enough for impeachment on the basis of competency. So its just the will of the GOP that is lacking. Its that self interest horse that will decide the timing

  41. …but, but with Direct Action we’re going to romp in our Paris target, so why would we even need to look at anything else??

  42. As I have long said and the NY Times piece reiterates, impeachment will be a political decision. It will also only be the Republicans that can do it. If the Democrats do win Congress at the mid terms the cost benefit analysis for them will be to leave Trump in place dying from a thousand cuts.

    The continuing revelations increase the odds on the Republicans cutting his throat eventually, but we’re a long way from that yet. The calculus will be when the polls show that holding up Trump means they lose Congress (and probably a few states), AND also that Trump has lost the base to such an extent that bringing him down won’t see them losing their own endorsements.

    At the moment any Republicans that threw Trump under the bus would have an outraged base coming for them. Around this time next year though…

    Because it is a political process if the Republicans come to the conclusion that Trump has to go it can happen pretty quickly. The Republicans will probably come to the conclusion he can’t be defended (quite possibly already have), but they will need there to be a clamour for impeachment from the Republican base before they move. So it will be another year of more and more evidence of who and what Trump is building to the point where even Fox are calling for his head. There’s no certainly that point will be reached, but the odds went up a bit today.

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