Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition cops a two-point hit on the primary vote from Essential, as new results elsewhere cover same-sex marriage and voting intention in cabinet ministers’ seats.

Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average records Labor improving a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, puttings its lead north of Newspoll at 54-46. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, leaving it steady with an unchanged Labor, while the Greens and One Nation are steady at 11% and 7%. The poll features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 37% and up four on disapproval to 49%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 36% and up one to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister remains about the same, at 41-27 compared with 39-26 a month ago. In other findings, it turns out you get a much stronger response on trust in secure storage of personal data if you say “security agencies such as the Australian Federal Police, local police and ASIO” (64% a lot of or some trust, 32% little or none) than you do if you say “the government” (43% and 52%), while telcos and private companies rate considerably worse again.

Also in polldom:

• The Australia Institute has also produced results of polls conducted in cabinet ministers’ seats to emphasise the point that the government is on the wrong side of public opinion in the blue belt on such matters as taxpayer subsidies for the Adani Carmichael coal mine project. More to the point, they also feature results on voting intention, with samples from 627 to 692. These suggest swings of 2.4% against Scott Morrison in Cook, 3.8% against Greg Hunt in Flinders, 5.7% against Julie Bishop in Curtin, 6.8% against Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth and 7.3% swing against Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong, but better results for the government in the two most marginal of the seats covered, with no swing at all against Christopher Pyne in Sturt and a swing of 4.4% in favour of Peter Dutton in Dickson.

• A second tranche from Newspoll finds 46% in favour of a plebiscite on same-sex marriage versus 39% for “have the politicians decide”. This reverses a curious result on the same subject in September, which had the respective numbers at 39% and 48% – although then there was the presumably significant difference that the question stressed a plebiscite in February. Essential Research’s poll last week found 59% supporting a “national vote” and 29% the matter being “decided by parliament”, despite the wording of the latter option being less unappealing than Newspoll’s invocation of “politicians”.

UPDATE (YouGov/Fifty Acres): The second YouGov poll for Fifty Acres has strayed well away from the rest of the field, with the Coalition bouncing three points on the primary vote to 36% while Labor drops one to 33%, with the Greens and One Nation steady on 12% and 7%, and the remainder down two to 12%. Previous election preferences would place Labor’s lead slightly above 52-48, which isn’t too radically. But YouGov’s respondent allocation method, which presents those who complete the online survey with a mock ballot paper to fill out, continues to elicit extraordinary results: enough in this case to give the Coalition a lead of 52-48.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

232 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. political_alert: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is in South Australia and will join Nick Champion MP at the Wingate Dam at 10:30am #auspol

    I assume this is South Australia time going on tweet history from this poster but could be wrong

  2. Well if Mark Kenny sticks to his latest thesis it is another indication that the pundits are finally catching on. Mind you he is known for swapping positions on a daily basis, I think it’s his idea of being balanced. Lenore also got her head around voter dissatisfaction with neoliberal economic policy in her recent article.

    Mind you, I don’t think Gonski 2.0 had anything to do with shifting away from neoliberalism as Kenny said. In my view it was an attempt to salvage trust with the electorate AND as many cuts as possible after the L-NP had abandoned their “unity ticket” promise.

    If the pundits continue to wake up it will be very gratifying for many of us on PB, who have been pointing this out for quite some time. $50 (or $65) billion of tax cuts that increase GDP by 0.1% over 20 years (or whatever) impresses no-one.

    Moaning that economic reform is dead because the system is broke also impresses no-one. You won’t improve productivity or the economy if the benefit all gets funnelled to people who already have more than their share of the pie. If you want to keep pushing that barrow you only risk pushing voters toward notions of trade sanctions like Trump and Brexit. So much for economic reform.

    I’m hoping the other shoe will drop and the pundits will see that far from being lucky, Shorten is simply way ahead of them. And speaking of economic reform, removing negative gearing is a reform, because it removes a government distortion of the market, something the numb-nuts should approve of.

  5. Al Pal

    It does seem a long way off in getting the crook and Traitor out of the WH. I am going to remain optimistic and hope it happens soon. This shitshow needs to end

  7. We were saying here on the afternoon before the actual vote that Trumble had clearly capitulated and that this weakness would be the defining feature of his ‘leadership’ (sic).

    Of course no one in the Gallery noticed what was obvious because bright shiny thing and they had to try and cover up their fluffing for Abbott by turning the fluffing up to 11 on Trumble.

    It is interesting that Trumble has tried to break out of the chains he voluntarily locked himself up with for the precious.

    But more interesting is how short the leash still is and how quickly Trumble pre-empts the tug on the chain.

    He got a bit of a run off the chain with schools, but on Carbon and SSM he is clearly chained up.

    The point being that with Abbott actually going too far so that in theory Brian would have some more room to move he continues to stay strictly within the boundaries defined by his original capitulation. Clearly, despite Abbott turning himself into an even greater joke than he was, there remains more than enough loons who will be happy with Trumble’s head if he tries anything on these issues even as they slap down Abbott for his wrecking.

    You won’t get the MSM pointing it out though. Too much thinking required. Also too much mea culpa required for not pointing out how the combination of the Right’s intransigence and Trumble’s desperation to get the job at any cost (alongside his inherent weakness and lack of conviction for anything greater than his own greatness) doomed the entire Trumble project to failure at it’s inception.

    That was the only important story in the challenge and every single member of the media missed it.

  8. Well, the article’s info graphic also cites the fact that 1/3 of young people live in NSW, which either means that living in NSW is unhealthy or that the info graphic has an inappropriate headline…

  10. Just my amateur opinion, but Trump Jr just admitted that the Trump campaign did, indeed, collude with Russia at some level.

    And if Comey did not lie, Trump tried to cover it up.

    The Republicans will be scarred for a long time if they turn a blind eye.

    It may move faster than what many think.

  11. Lizzie

    I have lots of problems with the LNP in NSW. Good to see them cleaning up this mess though.

    I think Labor in government would have acted faster to clean the slate after the Obeid era

  13. I think that part of the problem is that the media genuinely see themselves as players, and thus ‘own’ certain outcomes.

    This is, of course, a sign of their naivety and basic ignorance of party politics, but what it means is that once something happens that they think they made happen, they find it hard to let it go.

    So, in their eyes, Abbott was deposed because they got him deposed (which ignores the fact, shown clearly by the polls, that the general populace had given up on Abbott long before the media had…) and therefore Malcolm is Theirs.

    They haven’t got a replacement for Malcolm – no one has, within the Liberal party – and they’ve told us from Day One that Shorten can’t be taken seriously, so they’re now in a cul de sac of their own making.

    Of course, they could just report, investigate and analyse, but where’s the fun in that?

  14. Peter Love

    My assessment of the Trump shit show has always been that the level of corruption engaged by Trump and his surrogates has been huge. These latest revelations are just an appetiser. In any case, I have always felt that the real problem is that whatever hold Putin and Co have over Trump, it is dangerous for the US and by extension its allies. It effectively means that Trump is informed not by what is in the interests of the US and its allies, but his own interests, and he would do anything to protect that. Dangerous and it needs to end

  15. zoomster

    Yes I think you are right there. Led by Murdoch’s press. We have the self admitted headline from the Sun in the UK to confirm that.

    Its the Sun wot won it.

  16. Ratsak,
    Yep. Funny how none of the ‘dysfunction’ rests on Turnbull.
    I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised, this is the same group that didn’t blink when Abbott was saying he would keep services, cut taxes, and fix the deficit… because “I’m a grown-up”. Magic.

  17. Agreed Zoomster,
    The media want to look in control. The good thing about that is at some point they have to concede to reality, or look like fools. It was great fun watching Hartcher belatedly contort his way around Abbott’s downfall.

  18. I reckon the now endless protest politics run by Trump is destabilising and this also harms Tories everywhere, including the Liberals. Voters see chaos in America and chaos in the Liberal machinery and are both dazed by it and want to recoil from it. The spectacle of things being things are out of control is very unsettling, right across the electorate. The sense of disorder itself is also fuelling the volatility and the rancour of the inflexible Right, adding to the pressure in the system generally. Disorder is feeding on itself. In this context, support will migrate to the voices of order, reason, predictability, fairness and cohesion. The longer the turmoil continues on the Right, the worse it get for them….

  19. The federal government is allowing the huge spike in land clearing in Queensland to destroy threatened ecological communities, the habitat of threatened species and increase pollution on the Great Barrier Reef by failing to enforce environmental law, according to analysis by WWF.

    Following the weakening of land clearing laws in Queensland in 2013, the rate of clearing there has tripled to almost 300,000 hectares each year.

    WWF analysis found almost 10,000 properties have either cleared at least one hectare of land since 2013, or have notified the state government that they plan to. Combined, that will result in almost 1m hectares of land being cleared.

    Although the clearing may be allowable under permissive state laws, much of it could require approval under the federal Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) act.

    The minister for energy and the environment, Josh Frydenberg, has said if the clearing activities “have, will have or are likely to have a significant impact on a matter of national environmental significance under federal environment law,” then they required approval under the EPBC.

    And last week, Frydenberg told the ABC the Turnbull government had powers to enforce those laws and would continue to do so.

    Among the almost 10,000 properties that have either cleared more than 1ha of land, or plan to, WWF found 86% of them (7,919) are clearing an endangered ecosystem, the habitat of an endangered animal, or that it would occur inside a catchment for a river that flows into the Great Barrier Reef – all factors that appeared to meet the criteria for referral under the EPBC.

    But according to the government list of referrals, only five of those almost 8,000 properties have referred clearing for approval under the EPBC, and just one had been forced to gain approval through it. That leaves 99.92% of properties that appear to be undertaking clearing that needs federal approval, going ahead without approval.

    Frydenberg doesn’t bother…

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/12/exclusive-government-inaction-leading-to-increased-pollution-on-barrier-reef-says-wwf?CMP=share_btn_tw

  20. Briefly

    The attacks on Yassmin Abdel-Magied for a Facebook post getting to the point she leaves the country is a case in point.

    The antithesis of the multicultural society we are rightly proud to be a leading example of.

    Voters hate this hate stuff and all the disorder that comes of it.

  21. The ‘Player’ conceit is a huge part of it. You can see the delusion in the constant coaching pieces. X needs to do Y because some dickhead with delusions of adequacy and a media megaphone thinks their position in the bubble makes them a savant.

    You wouldn’t back any of the dopes to win election at their kids P&C but they know so much about politics that they should lecture the actual politicians.

    If only they put half the effort they put into pontificating into analysis of policy and the real effects of them. It’s not like it’s actually that hard.

    The weakness of the entire business tax cuts propaganda is actually spelt out in the Treasury modelling. The reality of franking credits for Australians shareholders is hardly a secret. It doesn’t take an enormous amount of intellect or effort to contrast the claims against the reality. Doesn’t happen though. Some are noticing that the voters aren’t buying the bullshit so much, but this is put down to lack of salesmanship, or opposition cynicism, or just general public malaise, rather than the more simple and obvious reason that people have seen the reality don’t match the rhetoric for the simple reason that the rhetoric is based on obvious fallacies.

    We swapped out a government of largely reality based policy but leadership instability for one of magic pixie dust policies and leadership instability simply because our media want to be players and so worked with an insurgency (both within and without the government) and glossed over the catastrophic consequences of the policy changes that would result.

    A focus on the reality of what the alternatives would have meant to the real lives of people rather than being players would likely have seen the insurgencies both collapse for want of any benefit to anyone other than the egos of the insurgents.

    We all have paid a huge price for the conceit of ‘players’ but they will be the last to notice it let alone acknowledge it.

  22. I was distracted yesterday with tobogganing and snowball fights but managed to follow the ME debate.

    It seems it finished with some saying that the LBGTI community should give in and compromise.

    Why should they give ground?

    Where are we giving any ground?

    We can marry now.

    If they accept compromise, we will still be able to marry.

    If they achieve full ME, we will still be able to marry.

    So under all the scenarios we are personally compromising on nothing while some want the LGBTI community to give on equality so we can maintain our exclusivity

  23. 4.4% to Dutton? My capacity to empathise with the ignorant, the selfish and the mad has clearly diminished.

    I’m sure things will change, but even 10% swings in Cook and Wentworth won’t mean anything unless Labor can regain seats like Reid in NSW and topple the ultra marginals in Queensland. I hope they’re doing the leg work on the ground right now.

  26. Sorry the text with the link did not come through from last post

    Fred and Eglantine have signed up to trial and eventually use Local Volts, an energy trading system which doesn’t require anything more than a mobile phone or computer.

    “It’s connecting people together that have the same ideas. I think that’s a really important factor,” added Eglantine Oualid.

    Local Volts founder Jitendra Tomar describes his system as the eBay of energy trading.

  28. The White House Puts Trump Into Hiding As He Is Consumed By Rage Over The Russia Scandal

    Trump is reported to be consumed by rage over the fact that his son Donald Jr. has been caught up in the Russia scandal, while the White House has kept the President hidden from any domestic public appearances as they fear what might happen if they let him out in public.

    Donald Trump is enraged, which means that it is only a matter of time until he explodes and goes completely off the rails, which is why the White House is keeping him hidden. A publicly talking Trump is a president who will give investigators enough rope to impeach him.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/11/white-house-puts-trump-hiding-consumed-rage-russia-scandal.html

  31. ‘Integrity, zero’: Internet lampoons Don Jr. and Hannity for softball interview on ‘daddy’s favorite network’

    Trump Jr.’s visit to—as CNN’s Jake Tapper put it—“his father’s favorite channel” yielded as much hard-hitting news as one would expect. Trump’s eldest son “probably” would have done things differently, but he “can’t help what somebody sends” him in an email.

    According to CNN’s Dylan Byers, in a preview for the interview, Hannity “goes after media for not caring about Hillary Clinton, Deep State.” He also, according to his preview, “ran out of questions” to ask Trump Jr., who’s currently embroiled in one of the biggest political scandals to date.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/integrity-zero-internet-lampoons-don-jr-and-hannity-for-softball-interview-on-daddys-favorite-network/

  32. ‘Pathetic’: Fox’s Krauthammer shreds conservatives for pretending Trump Jr wasn’t colluding with Russians

    “If you get a call to go to a certain place in the middle of the night to pick up stolen goods, and it turns out stolen goods don’t show up but the cops show up, I think you’re going to have a weak story saying, ‘well, I got swindled here,’” Krauthammer explained.

    “The denial of collusion is very weak right now because it looks as if Don Junior was receptive to receiving this information,” Krauthammer explained. “It’s a hell of a defense to say your collusion wasn’t competent and it didn’t work out.”

    “Come on, that is pathetic,” Krauthamer said of those making excuses for Trump, Jr.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/pathetic-foxs-krauthammer-shreds-conservatives-for-pretending-trump-jr-wasnt-colluding-with-russians/

  33. ShoebridgeMLC: I put it to you that the Daily Telegraph is the real health hazard here.

    To any LGBTI kids who see this – you… fb.me/zMBtG9X1https://twitter.com/shoebridgemlc/status/884954283501899776

  34. So the yet to be answered question, who is leaking these Trump emails to the media? Who will most benefit by general distablisation of the USA Government, the diminution of US authority and respect globally, and the weakening of alliances which have held since WW2?

    The ‘useful idiot’ theory that may be a valid description of Trump, must have some strategic planners in Moscow ready for the Order of Lenin and a nice dascha or two.

  35. Rats off the sinking ship: Morning Joe Scarborough quits the Republican Party over Donald Trump

    Suffice it to say that MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” host Joe Scarborough has had an eventful year. He got engaged to his co-host Mika Brzezinski. He was blackmailed over it by Donald Trump. And now he can add another strange twist to his 2017 so far: he’s officially quitting the Republican Party.

    It’s not a coincidence that this comes just after Donald Trump Jr.’s confession has made clear Donald Trump won’t survive in office. So who’s the next rat off the sinking Trump/GOP ship?

    http://www.downgoestrump.com/donald-trump/morning-joe-quits-republican-party-donald-trump/284/

  36. Oh dearie me. 😉

    Tim McCurdy, 54, lower house MP for Ovens Valley in north-east Victoria, is alleged to have falsified documents to secure sales commissions worth about $375,000 while working as a real estate agent in 2009.

    The alleged offences were committed more than a year before he entered State Parliament in 2010 but have come back to haunt the MP some eight years later after police revived their investigation into the property deals.

    The investigation into alleged criminal activity by an opposition MP is an awkward development for the Matthew Guy-led Coalition, which is campaigning aggressively on law and order.

    Mr McCurdy is due to host a community forum on law and order in Wangaratta on July 31. There have been four shocking killings in the Wangaratta region in the past 20 months. Senior Liberal figures, shadow minister for community safety Edward O’Donohue and shadow attorney-general John Pesutto, are scheduled to speak at the forum.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/police-investigate-tim-mccurdy-nationals-mp-for-ovens-valley-over-real-estate-fraud-20170711-gx8y0o.html

  37. ‘Category 5 hurricane’: White House under siege by Trump Jr.’s Russia revelations

    The White House has been thrust into chaos after days of ever-worsening revelations about a meeting between Donald Trump Jr. and a lawyer characterized as representing the Russian government, as the president fumes against his enemies and senior aides circle each other with suspicion, according to top White House officials and outside advisers.

    President Trump — who has been hidden from public view since returning last weekend from a divisive international summit — is enraged that the Russia cloud still hangs over his presidency and is exasperated that his eldest son and namesake has become engulfed by it, said people who have spoken with him this week.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/category-5-hurricane-white-house-under-siege-by-trump-jrs-russia-revelations/2017/07/11/1e091478-664d-11e7-8eb5-cbccc2e7bfbf_story.html?utm_term=.1f7abfc5fc31

  40. Rat@11:19: Absolutely: “Journalists” do not recognise that they are part of the Rupert’s Disease (a form of tertiary Thatcherism, caused by Treponema pallidumb.
    Abbott & Turnbull were exemplars of what the “journalists” of the MSM think of themselves – and what we think of “journalists”.

  42. Lucky for Trump that he has studiously tended a good relationship with the majority of US media, US law enforcement and close international allies.

    They all have his back now, and will help him through his current troubles. And in no way through any fuel on the fire.

  44. sprocket_ @ #92 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:19 pm

    Lucky for Trump that he has studiously tended a good relationship with the majority of US media, US law enforcement and close international allies.
    They all have his back now, and will help him through his current troubles. And in no way through any fuel on the fire.

    What a delightful observation!

  45. PhoenixRed, seek help.
    You have lost the plot.
    I would call you deranged but you obviously need actual professional help.
    On the plus side you are supplying an endless stream of lolz for me and my 18, 537 twitter followers.

  46. BK and zoomster

    Nice (sarcasm) that it’s caught VicLibs on an anti-crime roll. “We’re more ethical than Labor” doesn’t really cut it now, does it.

  47. Good morning all,

    Turnbull may have been hoping for a bit of a lull in the government internals after his ” Menzies speech ” but, alas, another wound has opened.

    Josh F. has fronted this morning claiming the government will only support a new coal fired power station if the market supports it. I am sure Barnaby and Matt Canavan will be interested to hear this given their full on support for a North Queensland station to be built no matter what.

    Interesting to see how this plays out. Has Josh been sent out by Turnbull and if so will Turnbull be prepared to back him or once again walk away if there is blow back internally, especially from the Nationals ?

    Will Josh be left like a shag on a rock once again ?

    Cheers and a great afternoon to all.

  50. Rachel Maddow Shakes Trump To His Core By Asking One Big Question About The Russia Scandal

    On her MSNBC program, Rachel Maddow pointed out that the Russians knew about the Donald Trump Jr. meeting before The New York Times ever did, and asked the vital question, did the Russians use their information to blackmail anyone in the White House?

    Maddow said, “We learned about this meeting with a Russian emissary between Donald Trump Jr., Paul Manafort, and Jared Kushner who still works at the White House. We learned about it from The New York Times, but the Russians before The New York Times ever knew about it, the Russians knew about that meeting too. Have they used that to blackmail anybody before it became public today? Is there anything else that they know about in terms of the behavior of the Trump campaign, the behavior of Jared Kushner that they are using, or they could use to blackmail to use coercion to get the United States to do stuff that is not in the United States’ interest, but is in Russia’s interest, because Russia knows what they did, and they don’t want it known?”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/11/rachel-maddow-shakes-trump-core-big-question-russia-scandal.html

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