Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

As Newspoll reports for the first time in three weeks, Labor’s 53-47 lead remains set in cement.

The Australian relates yet another 53-47 result from Newspoll, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote: the Coalition to 35% and Labor to 36%, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens, despite it all, up a point to 10%. Of personal ratings, only the following at this stage:

Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between those satisfied and those dissatisfied with his performance — deteriorated slightly from -23 points to -24 points over the past three weeks. In contrast, Mr Shorten improved his net satisfaction rating from -23 to -20 points in today’s poll, showing another improvement in his standing with voters since he slumped to -28 points in March.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 56%; Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 33% and down two to 53%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 44-31 to 41-33.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

808 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Everyone is asleep. But Junior’s e-mails with Russia are now out for the world to see (presumably because NYT had a copy, so he published to steal their thunder):

    Source: https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/884789418455953413
    Also: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/11/politics/trump-latest/index.html

    His excuse for the whole thing is that he thought Russia was offering him legitimate “Political Opposition Research”. Doubt that will hold up.

    Anyhow, and more importantly, when will SoaD be touring Australia again?

  2. Grimace, I’m reminded of this article..

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-may-be-forced-to-call-election-after-just-two-years-of-governing-20170612-gwpgcb.html

    The problem for Mr Turnbull is a logjam of fixed-date state elections in 2018 and early 2019, and a constitutional requirement for senators who were elected to half-terms at last year’s double dissolution election to face voters again.

    The Victorian election campaign will run from late October 2018 up to election day on November 24. South Australia, Tasmania and Queensland are also due to hold elections in 2018.

    The 2018-19 Christmas holiday season rules out a federal poll, and NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian will campaign from late February to an election on March 23, 2019.

    The latest possible date for a House of Representatives election is November 2, 2019, but the half-term for the Senate expires on June 30, with the latest date for a simultaneous House of Representatives and Senate election being May 18. Given the need for a minimum 33 day campaign, Mr Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten would be forced to campaign through Easter and Anzac Day if that date was to be used and that is thought to be unlikely.

    So unless Turnbull wants a separate half Senate election he’s going to have to go in April/May 2019, or around Aug/Sep 2018.

    Personally I’m hoping he’s crazy enough to do the earlier date. The sooner Labor get back the sooner they can save billions of dollars being wasted on FTTN.

  3. Turnbull could, using the fixed terms as the reason, tell the states to decide for themselves on half-Senate dates (which the can, even without his permission) and then go in the second half of 2019. This is extremely unlikely but fun to imagine.

  4. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/11/theresa-may-first-year-brexit-europhobes-corbyn

    Theresa May’s first year was awful. Her next promises far worse
    Polly Toynbee

    A year ago today Theresa May was anointed unopposed. What a wretched anniversary, marking an inert year in which absolutely nothing has been done for the country, and even less for her party as she squandered its majority. Beyond the monstrous nightmare that is the eight upcoming Brexit bills, the first of which is to be unfurled on Thursday, there is little in the pipeline either.

    No wonder she calls on Labour for ideas. They can throw their fine fat manifesto to her across the dispatch box for her to take her pick. End student fees, the pay cap, the bedroom tax, unpaid internships and excessive top pay? Bring rail and energy back into public ownership, perhaps. Plenty to choose from in this popular cornucopia. Most prime ministers hit the deck running, brimming with policies. She has wasted the first year when a better prime minister would have seized their moment.

    Consider what Tony Blair did in his first year: the Good Friday agreement signed; the national minimum wage and human rights acts passed; the Bank of England made independent; a £5bn windfall from privatised utilities; and devolution to the Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly begun, along with a London mayor. He stripped the House of Lords of most hereditary peers, brought in a Freedom of Information Act, lowered the gay age of consent, ordained the right to roam, and saved the Kosovans. There was much more in the pipeline, with benefits for families increasing hugely. Any one of those achievements would be totemic in hapless May’s wasted year.

  5. From the G today ‘PM’s pitch as business rebounds. ‘

    ‘figures…which showed the best business conditions in more than nine years, but also showed an unexpected jump in labour costs’.
    Why would that be unexpected? Isn’t that how modern capitalism is supposed to work, as opposed to classical 19c capitalism?.

    Also probably posted elsewhere. ‘Turnbull’s legacy claim draws fire’. (delicious)
    The not a conservative label by Turnbull means the right intend to eat his lunch.

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