Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

As Newspoll reports for the first time in three weeks, Labor’s 53-47 lead remains set in cement.

The Australian relates yet another 53-47 result from Newspoll, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote: the Coalition to 35% and Labor to 36%, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens, despite it all, up a point to 10%. Of personal ratings, only the following at this stage:

Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between those satisfied and those dissatisfied with his performance — deteriorated slightly from -23 points to -24 points over the past three weeks. In contrast, Mr Shorten improved his net satisfaction rating from -23 to -20 points in today’s poll, showing another improvement in his standing with voters since he slumped to -28 points in March.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 56%; Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 33% and down two to 53%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 44-31 to 41-33.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. I have been wondering of late if Tony Abbott’s idiotic interventions are not actually helping Turnbull – reminding everyone of what a twit he replaced. Still the relentless round of 53-47 doesn’t seem to support that…

  3. Got pipped by Mr Bowe on last thread….

    David:
    Congratulations on your retirement. I can wait to retire and not have to work in….. I wont say how many years.

  5. I thought the same thing Alias but I think outside an election period peopl e are mostly switched off to politics and this leadership problem is sucking away the oxygen to establish a positive narrative rather than directly hurt Turnbull.

  11. Davidwh:

    Did your ‘comrade’ take you to task for daring to speak ill of his lover Rudd, or did it pan out the way we suspected in that you being male and therefore not a woman meant you got a leave pass for having taken his lover’s name in vain?

  12. Who would have thought?

    Australian journalist’s ‘searing assessment’ of Trump strikes a chord around the world in viral video

    Scathing, searing and brutal were just a few of the adjectives flying around social media on Sunday following an eloquent takedown of Donald Trump by ABC political editor Chris Uhlmann.

    Speaking to Insiders from Hamburg, Uhlmann delivered a wrap on the G20 summit that has since gone viral, resonating with people from around the world.

    The veteran journalist criticised the US President’s conduct while in office, his awkwardness at the G20 Summit and his offhand Twitter tirades.

    “He has no desire and no capacity to lead the world,” said Uhlmann. “{He} barks out bile in 140 characters, {and} wastes his precious days as President at war with the West’s institutions.”

    Uhlmann also criticised the President’s desire to be the centrepiece of conversation, saying that it was the only thing Trump cared about.

    “Donald Trump is a man who craves power because it burnishes his celebrity. To be constantly talking and talked about is all that really matters.”

    Uhlmann finished off by saying that Trump was leading America into a decline that would see the superpower ultimately replaced by Russia and China.

    “Donald Trump has pressed ‘fast forward’ on the decline of the United States as a global leader. He managed to isolate his nation, to confuse and alienate his allies and to diminish America.”

    Following the airing of his strong statement, Uhlmann’s Twitter account began trending in Washington in the United States with many Americans praising the words of the journalist.

    New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof shared the video with his 2.1 million Facebook followers, describing Uhlmann’s words as “powerful.”

    Bradd Jaffy, a senior news editor with NBC News, said that the video was a “searing assessment” of the President.

    Many others from around America joined the chorus of those praising the journalist’s words.
    —
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/australian-journalists-searing-assessment-of-trump-strikes-a-chord-around-the-world-in-viral-video-20170709-gx7t5a.html

  13. Well done Uhlmann, doing a much better job ‘over there’s than would have been your effort on SA’s batteries.

    PPM outside MOE from +13 down to +8 for Turnbull.

    Insiders good this morning. They just about seem to get that governing for the 1% isn’t such a masterstroke.

  16. Insiders good this morning. They just about seem to get that governing for the 1% isn’t such a masterstroke.

    I don’t watch Insiders, but my impression of msm is that it is disappearing more and more up its own fundament.

  17. I have been on tenterhooks all day, for some reason, waiting for this Newspoll. So, thank goodness it is what it is.

    I dunno, I just had foreboding feelings that a few things that Turnbull has done recently, including in the Budget and Gonski 2.0, imperfect as it is, may have seeped into the public consciousness enough to percolate into the Newspoll. However, the ‘great good sense of the Australian people’, as old Howie was wont to say as he won election after election, sigh, apparently have remained clear-eyed and focused on what is important. That is, I think, that Labor is coming up with the policies that matter to people, which the Coalition are meekly copying, and the Liberal Party is a dog’s breakfast who can’t run themselves, let alone the country, at the moment.

  18. The ‘YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor’ seems to have got lost in the bottom paddock. Essential and Newspoll consistently 53-47. YouGov can add their name to Morgan and Ipsos.

  19. “Insiders good this morning. They just about seem to get that governing for the 1% isn’t such a masterstroke.”
    Regardless of that, Insiders and the Australian media will continue reporting and opinionating for the 1%.

  20. @ Sohar

    IIRC YouGov TPP was 54-46 based on preference flows at the last election. 51-49 was respondent allocated.

  22. Cat, I don’t think you have anything to worry about at the moment. They way Essential moved last week I won’t be surprised to see a 54/46 result Labor’s way this week.

  23. Congratulations Davidwh 🙂 I am sure you will find satisfying uses of your time.

    I just saw the Uhlmann assessment of Trump. It is deadly accurate. Trouble is,where were all the conservative journos warning of the dangers of Trump bfore the election?? Its a bit late now.

  24. Georgie,
    Maybe the next Newspoll then, after Trumble ingratiates himself with Macron? 🙂

    Actually, I find the personality of Turnbull, not fascinating, but interesting. The way he operates. And I have been gaining fresh insight into it this weekend as I have read the long-form piece in the Fairfax papers about long time ‘friend’ (if Malcolm actually has any real friends), and fixer for Kerry Stokes and Channel 7, Bruce McWilliam.

    Can you believe it, but even though Turnbull considered fellow lawyer, McWilliam, good enough to go into a law partnership with, Turnbull callously disdained him behind his back to fellow co-workers because the guy went to a Public High School! Even though McWilliam’s father was a Dentist, but likely supporter of Australia’s Public Education system.

    Deborah Huber worked at the firm as a litigator. “We all had a sense that Malcolm was going to be important, and Bruce was always supportive of him,” she says. According to someone close to McWilliam at the time, however, this support was not always reciprocated. “Malcolm was awful [to Bruce]. He’d say, ‘You’re bleeding off me, I’m bringing in all the business, and you’re hopeless.’ [But] Bruce loved Malcolm. He used to say, ‘Malcolm will be prime minister one day, and so I’m sticking with him, through thick and thin.’ ”

    After just 18 months, Turnbull announced his intention to leave the law firm and start an investment bank with businessman Nick Whitlam. “Malcolm totally dropped Bruce,” says the contemporary. “Bruce was devastated. He scrambled back to Allens, and kept being Malcolm’s friend.”

    Nick Whitlam also remembers Turnbull “being rude behind Bruce’s back” and mocking his public school education. “I don’t think Bruce is a friend of Malcolm’s in a genuine sense,” Whitlam says. “They would both say they are, of course.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/good-weekend/bruce-mcwilliam-the-man-media-moguls-trust-to-make-messy-problems-go-away-20170623-gwx6u7.html

    What an utter bastard!

  25. Don’t get me wrong. The pundits have a long way to go, and I’ve made a few posts on the ‘lucky’ Shorten BS.

    Having said that, you would expect them to find some silly rationalisation in the process of shifting.

    I think Lenore is beginning to get it by talking about the failure of neoliberalism with the punters.

    She spoiled it by pretending ding Turnbull understands it, when his range of policies scream that he doesn’t.

    Also the lucky rationalisation in there again at the end… But the beginnings of a shift away from the ‘masterstroke’.

  26. Good evening.

    Thats 15 newspolls lost. Thats if my counting of the polls is correct.

    I too expect the Essential to move further away from the LNP. This Newspoll was probably too late to factor in the Tesla battery announcement and the impression that Turnbull was close to Trump getting his Limo ride.

  27. DWH

    Congratulations. Enjoy the ritirement. On a selfish note I hope this means we will see more contributions from you on this site. I appreciate your calm view of the “dark” side.

  28. Chris Uhlmann got it right about Trump. The USA is greatly diminished in the eyes of just about everyone except the Australian Government and maybe One Nation after less than six months of his Presidency. And there’s almost certainly another 3.5 years to go.

  29. On a selfish note I hope this means we will see more contributions from you on this site. I appreciate your calm view of the “dark” side.

    Hear! Hear! Though I expect it will depend on whether davidwh can get internet wherever his caravan has taken him. As he ventures south and slums it with us Mexicans. 😉

  30. I also think it more likely the polls move away from the L-NP than toward C@t : )

    But perhaps I give too much free to the turd polishing pundits : ).

    Also, there is no way PHON will get 11%. A lot of swingers who will end up voting ALP in that number : )

  32. Steve777,
    Yes, sadly, at least another 3.5 years of Trump to go in America. The Republican Party, thoroughly debased as they are, haven’t stopped using him to get their agenda through Congress yet. 🙁

  33. Question,
    Also, there is no way PHON will get 11%.
    I reckon there’s at least 10% of Australians who are socially-conservative retiree bigots. 🙂

  34. Apologies for all my typos. Bloody tablet. It turned ‘cred’ into ‘free’???.

    And to explain that comment, I expected the polls would have been more likely to shift earlier. The post budget polishing frenzy has died down in recent weeks. The pundits are beginning to sound defeated.

  36. Guytar
    “Congratulations. Enjoy the ritirement. On a selfish note I hope this means we will see more contributions from you on this site. I appreciate your calm view of the “dark” side.”.

    You aren’t referring to the ‘dark side of centrism’ a quote from Dr Jennifer Oriel in the previous thread.

    Congrats DavidWH, your contributions are always appreciated.

    I had not qualms about this Newspoll, any change was going to be in the MOE.
    Turnbull is done, however equally importantly, Labor is continuing to set the agenda.

  37. Greetings Bludgers from Edinburghhhh.
    Colder here than Perth today. Wet, stay inside.
    Toolmann made headlines even here & mostly everywhere which is good & bad as I’m sure is being discussed.

    I love a cement shoes 53-47 in the morning.

  39. Neoliberalism means the powerful get to keep all the goodies for themselves because they can. It needs to be chucked in the bin where oldo-liberalism was chucked after its failures brought about the Great Depression and WW2.

  41. Edinburgh – now 15 degrees and cloudy at 2:30 on a Summer afternoon – like Sydney on a particularly dismal Winter’s day. Forecast for the next week about 11-16 and cloudy everyday, sunny breaks on Wednesday.

  42. Guytaur,
    I did not know Newspoll recorded movements towards Cat

    Vote 1 C@t Party!

    My motto is, ‘The Par-tay Party!’

    That should rope a few in. 🙂

  43. Steve777,
    I have been enjoying the sunshine in Sydney, while we had it. As long as you stayed in the sun and not the shadows. 🙂

  44. An interesting question to Kevin Bonham on twitter from someone called Kasey.

    Has the LNP ever won an election when they are behind on primaries?

  45. Already 5C here on the bleedin’ cold edge of Oz 😮
    So it’s off under the doona for me now.
    Sweet dreams of the end of Neoliberalism and the Turnbull government. 🙂

  48. On the subject of weather, Sydney and Perth have swapped for July. Sydney has had 8/9 brilliant sunny days (virtually cloudless. 9+ hours sunshine) and cold clear nights, with no rain. My old hometown of Bankstown is tracking 2 – 18 degrees, 3 below average to 1 above. Meanwhile, Perth has had measurable rain on 8/9 days and an average of 4 hours sun a day.

  50. Steve777,

    So much to see and do, but my favourite places *around* Edinburgh, if you have the time.

    Falkirk Wheel; National Museum of Flight Scotland (no 777s, but a Concorde); and, if you are that way inclined, the Glenkinchie distillery (a bit difficult to find, but sort of, vaguely, in the vicinity of the flight museum).

    Have a dram (or three) for us poor PBludgers.

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