The Australian relates yet another 53-47 result from Newspoll, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote: the Coalition to 35% and Labor to 36%, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens, despite it all, up a point to 10%. Of personal ratings, only the following at this stage:
Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between those satisfied and those dissatisfied with his performance — deteriorated slightly from -23 points to -24 points over the past three weeks. In contrast, Mr Shorten improved his net satisfaction rating from -23 to -20 points in today’s poll, showing another improvement in his standing with voters since he slumped to -28 points in March.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 56%; Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 33% and down two to 53%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 44-31 to 41-33.
The ancient Hewbrews probably started out monolatrists. They initially seemed to accept that neighbouring tribes’ gods (e.g. Baal) were valid, but insisted that Yahweh was bigger and meaner.
GG:
Such is Trumplandia these days. Total circus.
I just hope the foundations of those US institutions that would ordinarily be there to bedrock the nation following such extraordinary upheaval can survive a Trump presidency.
My son is reading the Bible for research purposes. He was horrified by the story where Lot offers his virgin daughters to a mob to be gang raped (the offer isn’t taken up). Apparently this action confirmed Lot’s credentials as a Good Man.
‘fess
my hope is the one US institution that had been badly failing before he came to power, Congress, will be the toilet paper that gets flushed into the sewerage along with Turd Trump.
Frednk: “Stinging nettles; got kicked out Sunday school for asking the obvious question. If god did all this stuff what is his excuse for stinging nettles.”
Interesting. Something similar occurred to me. In my case, why would God create the mosquito. A few other things too – like the whole business about Adam and Eve looked like a setup that produced the intended result. And God’s reaction – pure vindictiveness. The Christian God is bigger and meaner than Zeus if you cross him.
Steve
“The ancient Hewbrews probably started out monolatrists. They initially seemed to accept that neighbouring tribes’ gods (e.g. Baal) were valid, but insisted that Yahweh was bigger and meaner.”
Yes, indeed. Judaism’s genius was to make belief in Yahweh synonymous with belief in the nation. The fight against other Gods was the fight against other nations.
SK:
Congress needs a total flush that’s for sure. My antipathy rests upon the notion that voters in the US with all its gerrymandered and voter suppression glory can produce this.
Thou shalt not covet they neighbour’s ass..
Unless one has a big carrot 🙂
Steve777
My “atheist” moment came during Sunday School aged about 6 . I was a bit confused about the whole religion thing as they banged on about Jesus when I thought surely the big boss, his dad, should be the focus, I mean he like created everything !! The teacher was that day going with the “god so loved the world he gave his only begotten son” routine. So I asked if god could make anything and was of course told that yes he could. Aha thought I and said well he could have made as many sons as he wanted and (The Clincher for me 🙂 ) he got him back ! The young lady gave me such a crappy reply, well what could you say , that I from that day “non believed”
Belatedly to Monica – not familiar with Kleinman … found Campbell from research in history and also from authorial point-of-view. Will check Kleinman out.
Cud
“Thou shalt not covet they neighbour’s ass..”
——
I have always wondered whether poor benighted Americans think this is a Commandment against gay sex?
Swamp, we all know Americans secretly love their donkeys 🙂
confessions @ #422 Tuesday, July 11, 2017 at 8:51 am
I was involved in a discussion on here recently about which seats Porter could potentially move to.
Assuming he was going to move to a super safe seat (10%+ margin) and wanted to stay metropolitan, Porter can only choose from Moore, Tangney or Curtin. Mesma has indicated that she’s staying put, so that leaves the two non-entities (both long term Liberal stooges) who are incumbent in Moore and Tangney.
Cud
Yes but don’t they have to be WILD donkeys??
The best religion is Hinduism, Google says the religion has 330 million gods, I had thought the figure was 550 million, but it would still have to have at least an order of magnitude more gods than any other religion. They have gods for everything.
I recently reread Arthur C Clarke’s short story “The Nine Billion Names of God”.
An excellent story.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nine_Billion_Names_of_God
Grimace:
Like I said, if the WA Lib brains trust wanted to keep him in the fold, they’d a way to keep him, and from your post it would seem they certainly have options.
John Reidy
“The best religion is Hinduism, Google says the religion has 330 million gods, I had thought the figure was 550 million, but it would still have to have at least an order of magnitude more gods than any other religion. They have gods for everything.”
———
I believe there are exactly the same number of Gods as there are human beings. Because evryone has his/her own God.
I mean, “god” is non-corporial, as a word used by one speaker, no listener will know what that speaker means by “god”. All listeners will refer to their idea of “god”.
This is not changed by the speaker or listener notionally calling themselves a “christian”, “hindu” etc.
So there may well shortly be 9 billion gods!!
Grimace,
Is waste of political space, Steve Irons, in Tangney or Moore?
Thanks Swamp, I hadn’t heard that about Hindu gods.
SMH has an article on Lynton Crosby’s response to Turnbull’s ‘sensible centre’:
Cabinet rushes to PM’s defence
Strategist Sir Lynton Crosby warns the party is consumed with internal battles that voters do not care about.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cabinet-rushes-to-malcolm-turnbulls-defence-20170711-gx9bkt.html?btis
In it:
“He listed “reward for effort”, a “fair go”, an “opportunity to better [voters’] lives” by not being penalised by “excessive taxation” as the values that the Liberals should reflect.”
I think the ‘excessive taxation ‘ issue now works against the Liberals, people hear that and think (even subsconsously) “another tax dodge for the wealthy “, rather than a benefit for them.
Confessions
Agree
Poroti
Always careful. Have just been given a lovely handmade dish by restaurant owner,has shells, will declare at customs
Guytaur
Why I am having time in UK, although am assured very warm in UK ,.until I get there I guess.
OK finish off packing, washing will be dry only taken about 2 hours here,even though hand washed.
Bye
This NYT article contextualises the Russian Adoption issue that Donald Trump Jr. went to talk about into a wider context relating to the lifting of sanctions against Russia by the US:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/10/world/americas/kremlin-adoptions-sanctions-russia.html?action=click&contentCollection=Podcasts&module=Trending&version=Full®ion=Marginalia&pgtype=article
Swamp,
Depends on how WILD the party is? 🙂
It seems that a few other commenters here came to a similar conclusion to me with regard to belief – it just didn’t make sense. We were supposed to have ‘faith’, but couldn’t do it.
Cud Chewer
Tuesday, July 11, 2017 at 10:09 pm
Swamp,
Depends on how WILD the party is?
An example of ‘excessive taxation’ – electricity prices, now 4 carbon taxes and rising, with the proceeds enriching rent-seeking oligopolists.
I meant to say:
Wouldn’t it be good if the commandment said:
“Thou shalt not covert thy neighbour’s arse” 🙂
A whole new theology awaits!!!
Swaprat @10:28PM – they do – it’s expressed in American. Thou shalt not covet, among other things, thy neighbor’s ass.
@ GG
The census puts believe in a religion at ~70%, what is their actual church attendance like? The surveys I’ve seen put “regular” (monthly) attendance at 5% – 10%.
How many of them are just nominal Christian’s (etc) and don’t actually give religion much thought? Religion in Australia is heading into the dustbin of history, and good riddance.
poroti
I had a couple of atheist moments.
One was due to mosquitoes. I couldn’t work out why God would make something as annoying and pointless and harmful as mosquitoes.
Another was Christ’s last words ” My God, my God, why have you forsaken me?”
Incidentally those words are part of the lyrics to one of my favourite songs, Chop Suey by SOAD.
C@t Steve Irons is in Swan. That seat is now marginal so for Porter to move would be a big risk. Goodenough in Moore, which is a safe Liberal seat, is a factional ally of Cormoron so Porter will have to cosy up to Mathais and local factional leader, Peter Collier to get a look in. Goodenough is also a strong happy clapper who seemed to have penetrated deep into the northern suburbs branches of the Liberals in Perth
Diogenes
Would nae have picked you as a SOAD fan but there ya go …………… I like your taste in music .
Sorry. Freudian slip Cormoron = Cormann
Poroti
I love Serj, who now lives in a little town in NZ.
Freudian slip Cormoron = Cormann
Cormoron Strike?
Just wait until he gets to Judges 19. It’s almost the same story (different characters and different scenario but the offering of women for a mob to rape still is there.) In this instance, they take him up on the offer – and the result is utterly horrifying.
Commenting late due to work commitments, but I was intrigued by the transubstantiation press release (encyclical?) put out by the Vatican, which insists that you need enough gluten / wheat in the communion wafer so that it is bread:
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-and-views/catholic-church-confirms-its-opposition-to-going-gluten-free-20170710-gx85zf.html
The timing was exquisite, as I was at a conference dinner in Asia with someone from the Netherlands last week, who was diagnosed with severe Coeliac’s Disease at a young age. Somehow the conversation went from the difficulties of working out what he could eat to the problems of his First Communion. His parents tried to reason with the local priest about the need for a gluten-free option. However, they were told that as once the wafer was consecrated, it turned in to the body and blood of Christ, and so was obviously gluten free (i.e. it had undergone the good old transubstantiation).
The church consequently lost another potential follower, due to the real and present danger of ingesting gluten at communion.
It also reminds me of the time when I was 10 and our parish priest was inducting us into the mysteries of transubstantiation. I thought I got it, and so asked the question, to clarify my understanding “so, if you put the communion wafer under a microscope after consecration, you will not see bread, you will see flesh and blood?”. Said parish priest got agitated, and told me I had no real understanding of faith, and that he was very disappointed in me (angry with me?).
A decade or two later I asked older Catholic friends what I could have done to upset him, and from one friend got the answer “Well, if you asked questions like that, no wonder the priest did not like you.”
This remained a big puzzle to me until, much later, another friend (not Catholic) explained that apparently the Church follows the philosophy of Aristotle, and there is a material cause, and a spiritual cause for things (may have the wording in this slightly wrong).
So, if you put the wafer under a microscope, it will still be bread, but it its “spiritual essence” will have changed.
So, I think Mother Church needs to get over Aristotle, as those of us in physics have, and embrace the modern world.
Grimace
Tuesday, July 11, 2017 at 9:41 pm
There is no sign that Porter expects to vacate Pearce. On the contrary, he’s already campaigning to hang on.
Goodenough is a waste of space, but he can finance his own campaign. In an election where the Liberals are expected to lose seats, it’s very unlikely anyone will emerge to threaten his pre-selection.
Postcard from Kazakhstan…
Went to World Expo-Future Energy in Astana yesterday. 122 countries from China, US, UK, Germany, Russia to Palau, Jamaica and the Vatican displaying the latest initiatives towards a carbon free future, and the industrial and commercial opportunity of their countries. And not just solar and wind, but geothermal, biofuels, nuclear fusion, space energy, graphene….the world, everyone, are moving on, and not a mention of coal or gas anywhere.
Australia didn’t bother to attend.
Torchbearer
“Australia didn’t bother to attend.”
No need to attend if the US was there.
briefly @ #788 Tuesday, July 11, 2017 at 11:19 pm
I’m in his electorate and have signed up to his email and Facebook. I’m also on his VIP* list, and have been a regular correspondent over a number of years. The same people who did the Fair Go website are responsible for Porters’ social media presence and I really hope Pearce is a targeted seat at the next federal election so I can get out and campaign against him.
The uptick in electronic correspondence from Porter does suggest his reelection campaign has started, and it really is a poor effort. The “coffee with Christian” efforts that he has been putting in, with recently increasing frequency, are all in the middle of the day and during the working week. There has been nothing I’ve seen later on weeknights or on the weekend.
* Very impertinent pest
Grimace….
Porter knows he has a fight on his hands. Of course, he also has some advantages. Pearce is a huge seat with some very die-hard rural Lib+/or Nat booths. I think it’s a seat that needs a Labor candidate at the earliest opportunity. I guess I will be helping in Cowan but certainly hope to contribute in Pearce too.
I think we should take Pearce, Swan and Hasluck. Stirling is possible. Canning is feasible, (especially as Hastie is such an empty twit)….and, ya never know, Durack may also be winnable.
While the polls don’t yet show it, I expect that by the time of the next election, Federal Libs will be even less popular than their State counterparts were in March.
Johnson makes a fool of himself, again…
Prominent Corbynista breaks for No-Brexit….
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/11/european-leaders-can-go-whistle-over-eu-divorce-bill-says-boris-johnson
The Labour leader is facing calls from some on his own side to put the issue of staying in the EU back on the table.
Manuel Cortes, general secretary of the TSSA union, which has helped fund Corbyn’s Labour and Momentum, used an article in LabourList to call for Corbyn to leave open the possibility of staying in the EU.
“Why should we confine ourselves to the second-rate option of EEA or EFTA membership when what we already have is something far better?” Cortes said.
“I can’t see how we win the hearts and minds of those who voted for Brexit by telling them that we should now enter into a new arrangement which, in exchange for a large fee, will allow the EU to make all the rules for us because we gave up our EU seat and ability to shape things.
“This is such a poor proposal, it beggars belief that some serious players within our movement are making the case for it. And may I remind you, no one voted to leave the EU to join a second-best European economic unit?
“The best Brexit option to put on the the table is one which says we stay put. I hope our party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, will be holding out that olive branch when he meets the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, this week. Anything lesser is to cede to a deal meaning Britain will be agreeing to taxation without representation. What serious tribune of the people can advocate that?”
This position was praised by Chuka Umunna, the Labour MP and former shadow business secretary, who said it was a “bold and important” move for Cortes to say Labour should forget single market membership and now argue to stay in the EU.
briefly @ #792 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:02 am
The next 18 months are a real danger for the L/NP, and it is a serious dilemma for them choosing when to go to the polls, keeping in mind the constraints of the half senate election.
briefly @ #792 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:02 am
The next 2 years are a real danger for the L/NP, and it is a serious dilemma for them choosing when to go to the polls, they are stuck between going early to save some furniture, which will knock the HoR election out of sync with the half senate election, or holding on and risking serious adverse movement in the TPP due to slow burn from issues like Conski, penalty rates cut phase in, the NBN MTM debacle and electricity prices.
Manufacturing a DD trigger and pulling it would be crazy brave and I don’t feel it’s likely.
The polling is at ~47.5% this far out from an election, and Labor generally can realistically expect another more when the more disengaged voters start paying attention, and as we saw in the WA state election Labor’s campaigning does an excellent job of increasing the swing and making sure that it bites everywhere that matters.
The big unknown on the 2019(?) election will be the combined impact of social media and the decline of legacy media. Another Bludger commented recently that they felt social media would be totally dominant by the 2019(?) election and I agree, which combined with the continued decline of influence of legacy media and the Left’s demonstrated prowess and superiority in using the medium to campaign is a serious risk to the L/NP, who will have to develop a strategy to cover what has been major shortcoming in their campaigning.
Apologies for the double post.
briefly @ #792 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:02 am
As much as I’d love to see it, it’s improbable. If the WA result (12% swing) was replicated federally, Labor would win 128 seats in the HoR.
Grimace…the Libs know they have been thrashed on the ground in several elections…Victoria, Queensland, the Canning by-election and 2016 DD and in WA. But they are trying to get into gear. I for one do not underestimate them. We have to remember they have been very adroit over many years at communicating with Lib-positive voters. They are out of touch at the moment. But they will be trying to figure out how to respond. The Abbott shenanigans have not helped them, though, to be sure, everyone can now say that Rightist Revivalism is a no-goer.
Grimace
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:35 am
briefly @ #792 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:02 am
The WA economy is shot, imo, as are State finances. If the Libs carry the can for these failures, they will lose a lot of seats in WA. They certainly deserve to. The Libs have taken WA for granted for many years…..
poroti @ #783 Tuesday, July 11th, 2017 – 10:47 pm
100% agree.