Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

As Newspoll reports for the first time in three weeks, Labor’s 53-47 lead remains set in cement.

The Australian relates yet another 53-47 result from Newspoll, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote: the Coalition to 35% and Labor to 36%, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens, despite it all, up a point to 10%. Of personal ratings, only the following at this stage:

Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between those satisfied and those dissatisfied with his performance — deteriorated slightly from -23 points to -24 points over the past three weeks. In contrast, Mr Shorten improved his net satisfaction rating from -23 to -20 points in today’s poll, showing another improvement in his standing with voters since he slumped to -28 points in March.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 56%; Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 33% and down two to 53%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 44-31 to 41-33.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 17
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  1. Bemused
    “Turnbull is a dork and Liberal policies are toxic.”

    I am puzzled , given that Tony Abbott is considered toxic and people want him to leave parliament, as does Malcolm Turnbull – the preferred PM – why the polls?

    I guess now, after his speech, saying the Liberals are centrist and conservatives are not welcome, probably the polls will reflect his hardline approach to conservatives and Tony Abbott from now on, ie, now people can support the Liberal party without fear of Tony Abbott/conservatives having a say.

  4. The “Liberal” Party has been a party of the Right since at least the mid 1990’s, with the Second Coming of John Howard as leader of the party. This state of affairs was consolidated during John Howard’s long prime-ministership.

    Economically, the party is pretty much at one with the big money, business establishment politics, the type pushed by the IPA, for example. They tried to implement a large chunk of it in the 2014 Budget, a document that Malcolm is on record as fully supporting. Normally the “Liberals” make compromises on this position, or at least appear to do so at election time, only because it is for the most part ballot box poison.

    Socially, small ‘l’ liberals are tolerated in the party but are for the most part silenced. It’s the conservative wing that dominates. As leader to date, Malcom Turnbull, whatever his personal beliefs, has been merely the spokesman for the party’s hard-line conservative masters, advocating their cause like a barriser in court arguing his client’s case. Maybe Malcolm has now after all decided that there’s no point in being PM if this is all he is going to do. We shall see.

  5. PrettyOneas you think Abbott was the Bees Knees you like him should jion Bernadi’s right wing party.

    Turnbull has low popularity because he is still giving tax breaks to the rich while taking away services for everyone else and making them poorer.

    Neo Liberalism is dying as people see the consequences.

  7. Apropos of the discussion about religion, Joseph Campbell, anthropologist, wrote extensively, but, a particular favourite of mine, a 4 part series, called “The Masks of God”, covering Western, Eastern, primitive and creation beliefs systems across the world and over time.
    It is a fabulous piece of research and writing.

  8. prettyone @ #701 Tuesday, July 11, 2017 at 7:08 pm

    Bemused
    “Turnbull is a dork and Liberal policies are toxic.”
    I am puzzled , given that Tony Abbott is considered toxic and people want him to leave parliament, as does Malcolm Turnbull – the preferred PM – why the polls?
    I guess now, after his speech, saying the Liberals are centrist and conservatives are not welcome, probably the polls will reflect his hardline approach to conservatives and Tony Abbott from now on, ie, now people can support the Liberal party without fear of Tony Abbott/conservatives having a say.

    Tony Abbott is worse than Turnbull and in fact one of the few people who can make Turnbull look relatively good.

  9. Trumps first tweet on Hillary’s missing emails is the same day as his son and manafort met the Russian contact.

    :large

  10. C@tmomma
    “I turned to. I summoned up my own intestinal fortitude and resources and my child’s life was duly saved by my efforts and the efforts of his father. And the medical community”

    I am happy your child was okay, C@tmomma. That is a terrible situation to be in with children. The worst. I would say “Thank God for giving us great doctors and medicine” …. not to offend anyone. lol. just joking.

  11. Prettyone, people turn to a god only because of their feeling of utter helplessness. If “god” chooses not to help, well that is “god’s” choice. But if the crisis comes out positively …. well “thank god”.

    Abdicating the lack of control is a salve.

  13. Prettyone

    It may help if you realise the sensible centre is the policies of the Labor party. The Greens are the left. (Some doubt about that lately)

    Murdoch’s media always preaches from the right the rest of the media from the centre right.

    The first ideolgy that will fall is this obsession to sell of government services to make it small. A dismal failure

  17. Prettyone

    The reason that Malcolm isn’t doing well is that the Libs are not perceived to be governing while there’s all the infighting. We saw it with the RGR era as well. Malcolm could literally walk on water right now and the electorate would think the buoyancy of the water is somehow a result of factional infighting.

    Nobody can see any of the positives and the entire political class is seen as unworthy. The opposition gets the votes by default (even when the opposition is making good policy).

  18. jenauthor
    I’m so pleased that someone else is familiar with Campbell. I’ve got all his books.
    Another person who has been most helpful to my work in mental health, in developing and implementing policy, not to mention my own practice, is Arthur Kleinman, who was both anthropologist and psychiatrist. His series on culture, illness and cure was seminal.
    Love the interaction between ideas from different areas of human research and investigation.

  19. Trumps first tweet on Hillary’s missing emails is the same day as his son and manafort met the Russian contact.

    :large

    BOOM!

  21. There are a number of reasons for my non-belief:

    1. Being a believer does not seem to be part of my psychological makeup.
    2. In my teens, I looked around and could see no reason why the dreamtime myths I was taught in Catholic school were superior to or any more valid than anyone else’s. It seemed likely everyone was wrong.
    3. I never found religion or belief in any way comforting, quite the opposite, it was just so much mental and emotional clutter
    4. The world around me looked much more like a product of the result of the mindless operation of physical laws and of evolution by natural selection than the result of anything planned, designed and implemented by a vast and loving intelligence that had a purpose centred on humanity or, indeed, one that cared about humanity.
    5. While it is possible and even likely that the Universe contains vast intelligences well beyond humanity and indeed beyond anything that humanity could attain or even understand, there seems to be no reason why such intelligences should care about humanity or individual humans, let alone be bothered to make rules for, monitor, judge, reward, punish and listen to the prayers of individual humans.
    6. There is much that is great and good in the tradition in which I was raised, but many of the specific beliefs seemed to be harsh, unreasonable, oppressive, defying common sense or just plain stupid. The same also went for what I knew of other traditions.

    I could go on, but I’ve probably done so long enough…

  25. Might I just belatedly say that I’m mighty pleased with the latest polls and hugely entertained by the libs. saying they’ve got time to turn things around, while they go on tearing each other apart.
    Delicious.

  26. Monica
    I also was influenced by Campbell. I don’t know if it is true that mythologies started out as matriarchies and then were taken over by the patriarchal forms including monotheism. Comparative mythology is great fun!
    Another worthwhile small book is “Cow. Pigs, War and Witches” by Marvin Harris. “Explains” sacred cows, unclean pigs and other things. Entertaining – might even be true!
    If you have not read it, read “Candide”, which skewers all sorts of beliefs!

  27. This article is so true. Tony Abbott’s contribution to national politics has been largely about destruction.

    “As yesterday’s Newspoll would indicate, his continual white-anting of Malcolm Turnbull’s Prime Ministership is achieving absolutely nothing except to drive voters to Labor in droves. Well done Tony.

    As a lifelong Labor voter, my normal reaction to the Tories eating their own is along the lines of “pass the popcorn”, but Abbott has done so much damage to Australia and our level of national debate in the past 10 years that his continued presence here is just not worth it, no matter how mortal the wounds he inflicts on his own side.

    He may have been one of the most effective Opposition leaders this country has seen, but his sole skill lies in wrecking the joint.

    He tore down the prime ministerships of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, destroyed his own in record time, and now seems hellbent on doing in Turnbull out of sheer bloody-minded spite.

    In the process Australia has languished, while our national conversation has become more toxic and divided, focused on notions of “us and them”.

    Abbott has done enough harm here.”

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/opinion-tony-abbott-needs-a-oneway-ticket-out-of-here/news-story/6764c669e933bb53dff6f8d56eea7649

  28. guytaur:

    Peter Brent‏Verified account @mumbletwits Jul 10
    Surveying Liberal-voting electorates and presenting results as from 100% Liberal voters – the Oz Institute gimmick that keeps on giving.

    A whole-community poll on the subject where respondents can identify first voting preference would’ve been better IMO, instead of just polling Liberal electorates. For instance, how to interpret the results from Sturt where more Lib voters supported Adani than opposed it? It’s meaningless at the end of the day – all it tells us is that Lib voters in those seats polled felt one way, but it doesn’t say one thing about how Lib voters Australia wide feel about Adani.

  29. Fess.

    Thanks. At least we can say its true of some Liberal voters. So there is hope yet. Of course in South Australia they have seen the coal v renewable war up real close

  33. Tony Abbott will in due course shuffle off the national political stage with no positive legacy, except to the extent that he might have helped to slow and even reverse the nation’s politics ever rightwards and might in the end have contributed to a Labor Federal win in 2018 or 2019. Even so, he has poisoned national dialog, put back Australia’s contribution to effective action on climate change and transition to a post-carbon economy by a decade and made racism and bigotry more ‘respectable’ in the eyes of many. The sooner he can bugger off and write cantankerous op eds in The Australian (or maybe a spot on 2GB) the better.

  35. Disagree with the article David.

    The symmetry of Abbott wrecking the joint can only be fixed when the ALP are returned to government. Why should Turnbull be left, having gotten there by participating in the wrecking?

  36. Two Aztec kings were under pressure to reduce the rate of human sacrifice from 1000 per month as it was cutting in to the labor force.
    “Let’s stop it altogether” said one. “No, just cut it to 500” said the other. “Why 500?” asked the first.
    “It’s the sensible centre.” was the reply.

  39. Mari:

    One of the reasons I rarely if ever read over the day’s posts – lately it’s just the usual tedium, abuse and pedantic go-nowhere arguments that mean nothing at the end of the day. You can save yourself time and rolled eyes by simply skipping to the final page of the comments and starting there 🙂

  43. Monica & Phylactella: Thank you for the references to Harris and Kleinman. I’ve enjoyed Campbell since the day I discovered his Man & Myth lectures. I listen to them every year or so. I’ll look up Harris and Kleinman.

    And regarding today’s odd/unusual discussion on religion I suspect that religions adopt the concept of morality to further their continuance and growth. To pick just two aspects of morality, kindness and cruelty are fundamental to being human, and from observing kindness and cruelty other species (e.g. cats) I am in no doubt it is fundamental in being nonhuman too. If kindness did not dominate over cruelty I could see humans dying out quickly, so it makes sense that kindness is part of religions that have stuck around. But what irritates me is the belief that religion is what makes us moral, that I somehow need religious belief to be moral. Again, I can see why a religion might push this point, but for me it is the other way round. I’ve seen cruelty delivered by religious people and kindness by atheists. People are people. If anything, the strictures of formal religion are so damaging (e.g. sex) that I think religious people are good despite their religious beliefs not because of them.

    Gotta run, so apologies in advance for the drive by. I’ll be back tomorrow.

  46. Alert! Trump is tweeting.

    Are Fox and Friends now operating Trumps twitter account? Last 4 tweets are retweets from their account.


  48. Steve777
    Tuesday, July 11, 2017 at 7:48 pm
    ..
    The world around me looked much more like a product of the result of the mindless operation of physical laws and of evolution by natural selection than the result of anything planned, designed and implemented by a vast and loving intelligence that had a purpose centred on humanity or, indeed, one that cared about humanity.

    Stinging nettles; got kicked out Sunday school for asking the obvious question. If god did all this stuff what is his excuse for stinging nettles.

  49. confessions @ #747 Tuesday, July 11th, 2017 – 9:02 pm

    A music producer. A lawyer from Moscow. The Miss Universe pageant. And now: the promise of help from the Russian government. We connect the dots on Donald Trump Jr.’s communications last summer.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/11/podcasts/the-daily/donald-trump-jr-email-russian-lawyer-meeting.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

    It’s either the movie plot for Miss Congeniality or Dr Strangelove. Not sure which at the moment!

  50. “A HUMAN rights commission has delayed its landmark report into sexism and bullying in the fire services after the union launched court action trying to stop it.
    The independent Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission review was due to release part of its report this month but has agreed to delay it until the middle of August.
    The new time frame means the report into bullying in the fire services will not be released before a parliamentary committee finishes its work to scrutinise an Andrews Government Bill to split the fire services into a volunteer and paid workforce”

    How convenient – Independent my arse.

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