YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7

The second federal poll from YouGov goes against the grain in recording an uptick in support for the Coalition, while also finding a big majority in favour of legalising same-sex marriage.

The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%. However, what’s very unusual is a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result that gives the Coalition a lead of 52-48, the reverse of what the result would be if 2016 preference flows were used, as per the other pollsters. I don’t quite have the confidence to lead a post with “52-48 to Coalition” based such an unorthodox reading, so I’ll be using primary votes for my YouGov headlines for the time being.

The poll also found 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; health and hospitals were rated the most important election issue by 45%, followed by pensions on 33% and job security and unemployment on 31%; 56% supportive of a tax on companies that used robots to fund support for those who lost jobs as a result; and 54% expressing concern at indigenous languages falling into disuse, but only 33% believing the government should do anything about it. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Tuesday, with a sample of a little over 1000.

UPDATE: The Australia Institute has published results of a poll conducted in South Australia by ReachTEL, which shows (after allocating the forced response question from the 7.1% undecided) federal voting intention in the state at 34.3% for the Liberals (down 0.8% on last year’s election), 32.1% for Labor (up 0.6%), 14.9% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 6.4%), 6.6% for the Greens (up 0.4%), 4.6% for One Nation (didn’t field lower house candidates) and 3.9% for Australian Conservatives (unchanged on the Family First vote). There’s also a separate question on Senate voting intention, and while I have my doubts about such an exercise, it has the Liberals on 30.1% (down 2.5%), Labor on 26.1% (down 1.2%), the Nick Xenophon Team on 21.7% (unchanged), the Greens on 8.2% (up 2.3%), One Nation on 4.8% (up 1.8%) and Australian Conservatives on 5.2% (up 2.3% on the Family First vote, for the most encouraging poll result the party has yet received).

The poll also records strong support for the ABC, with 40.4% wanting its funding increased, 33.4% kept as is and only 17.5% reduced; 64.8% opposed to the government cutting funding to the ABC to get support on relaxed media ownership laws from One Nation, with 16.5% supportive; and 56.3% supportive of a strong online presence for the ABC “even if it effects the commercial viability of commercial media outlets”, with 16.4% opposed (the anti-ABC numbers across the three questions being notably similar). The automated phone poll was conducted from 1589 respondents on June 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7”

  1. Bush 43 and Obama Ethics Lawyers Warn Of Potential Trump Espionage Crimes and Conspiracy

    Trump Jr. could be in legal jeopardy, they counter. They argue, “Donald Jr. and others may also be liable for conspiracy with respect to espionage, depending on how any illicit information was obtained and the level of their awareness of any spying.”

    Does Donald Jr.’s eager willingness to meet and take ill-gotten gains from the Russians to help his father win the election rise to the level of assent to accept Russian aid?

    How was the material obtained?

    Is he liable for conspiracy with respect to espionage? How about the other two in the meeting?

    Who else in the Trump campaign knew of this meeting or how this or other material was obtained?

    Most importantly, did the President know of this meeting, and where was he on that day?

    https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/07/13/yougov-fifty-acres-l-np-36-alp-33-greens-12-one-nation-7/

  2. Congressmen officially file articles of impeachment against Donald Trump — and say ‘Republicans will join’

    Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA) on Wednesday formally filed articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump.

    According to a statement, Sherman and Rep. Al Green (D-TX) are filing for impeachment over what they believe is obstruction of justice in the firing of former FBI Director James Comey, as well as revelations from the ongoing investigation into the Trump campaign’s alleged collusion with Russia.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/congressmen-officially-file-articles-of-impeachment-against-donald-trump-and-say-republicans-will-join/

  3. Don Jr.’s new lawyer – a Hillary supporter – thinks ‘renegade’ Trump Sr. can’t grasp the Constitution

    Leaked emails reveal that Donald Trump, Jr.’s new defense attorney, a former Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama supporter, has some harsh words for President Trump.

    According to the New York Post, Alan Futerfas, Trump Jr.’s newly-hired lawyer, was extremely troubled by Trump’s firing of former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates — so much so that he urged his fellow New York attorneys to take a stand against “what increasingly appears to be a renegade and lawless President.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/don-jr-s-new-lawyer-a-hillary-supporter-thinks-renegade-trump-cant-grasp-the-constitution/

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    High gas prices, not high renewable energy prices, are responsible for the latest outsized increase in electricity prices, the second-largest on record, according to a new analysis by one of Australia’s leading experts writes Peter Martin.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/hugh-saddler-its-gas-not-renewables-that-is-pushing-up-electricity-prices-20170712-gx9vvm.html
    Little Trump is innocent says Big Trump.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/president-donald-trump-says-son-is-innocent-amid-reports-of-russia-meeting-20170712-gxa4mz.html
    Paul McGeough says Little Trump has delivered the smoking gun on Russia but wonders who it will shoot.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-junior-delivers-smoking-gun-on-russia–but-who-will-it-shoot-20170712-gx9qt4.html
    The New York Post’s editorial board offered a blunt response to Tuesday’s bombshell news about the president’s eldest son: “Donald Trump Jr. is an idiot.” Fair enough.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/07/12/new-york-post-pens-blistering-editorial-donald-trump-jr-is-an_a_23026107/
    And just a few hours ago a Californian lawmaker has introduced articles of impeachment against US President Donald Trump, making good on a promise he made to move the process forward.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/congressman-introduces-articles-of-impeachment-against-donald-trump-20170712-gxa5aj.html
    John Warhurst on the likely outcome of Shorten being the next Prime Minister.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-and-tony-abbott-sparring-aside-bill-shorten-could-be-next-pm-20170711-gx9fl9.html
    Sir Lynton Crosby has said the Liberal Party is overly consumed with internal issues voters do not care about. The Poms are welcome to him!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberals-must-focus-on-values-not-labels-says-sir-lynton-crosby-20170711-gx946y.html
    The rush to lash Britain’s fortunes to the US president was always humiliating. Now, after Donald Trump Jr’s Russian revelations, it looks even worse writes Jonathan Freedland. It has been her biggest mistake – and that’s saying something!
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/12/theresa-may-donald-trump-us-president
    The Herald-Sun’s James Campbell writes “They fight and bite, they fight and bite and fight! Those crazy Liberals — politics’ answer to The Itchy and Scratchy Show — are at it again.” Quite a good rant. Google.
    /news/opinion/james-campbell/james-campbell-its-the-tony-and-malcolm-show/news-story/9669940ed0b520f70e0bfb60041483e3

  5. Section 2 . . .

    The Australian Tax Office will waive some fines for late or incomplete lodgement of tax information, days after the latest failure of its online systems caused uncertainty at the start of tax season.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/tax-office-waives-some-lodgement-fines-after-repeated-website-collapses-20170712-gx9oct.html
    Read this article in The Australian on the mess that the NBN is and weep. Google.
    /news/inquirer/nbn-the-download-lowdown/news-story/1407d051029a1f46571b7913296b1561
    Adam Gartrell gives us the drum on how Big Tobacco is playing dirty. Again!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/exposed-big-tobaccos-behindthescenes-astroturf-campaign-to-change-vaping-laws-20170712-gx9lsl.html
    Tony Wright on Turnbull sitting on the barbed wire that is the “sensible centre” of a party of children.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbull-the-sensible-centre-and-the-pain-of-sitting-astride-the-barbed-wire-fence-20170712-gx9o9n.html
    Matthew Knott writes that federal Greens MPs have backed down on their decision to exclude Lee Rhiannon from contentious party room debates, but the NSW senator may still be barred from discussions when the party is in a position to block or pass legislation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-hope-to-end-infighting-with-lee-rhiannon-compromise-20170712-gx9sdu.html
    The future of Network Ten is not primarily about business or economics. It is primarily about power. Yet the formal processes the network’s proposed sale has to go through take no account of this reality.
    https://theconversation.com/network-tens-future-is-all-about-media-power-not-economics-80613
    Unequal distribution of wealth is deepening the divisions between rich and poor, and creating political instability says Patrick Keane.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/why-is-the-two-party-system-a-shrinking-space,10497
    The immaturity of the issue of “carbon tax” on anything continues – started by Abbott and unattenuated by the media.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/phony-carbon-tax-car-debate-highlights-the-sad-state-of-our-media-and-politics-20170712-gx9lan.html
    Attacks on Yassmin and Waleed Aly are, sadly, par for the course writes Nama Winston.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/attacks-on-waleed-aly-and-yassmin-abdelmagied-sadly-par-for-the-course-20170711-gx8yng.html
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/12/conservative-commentator-run-over-yassmin-abdel-magied

  6. Section 3 . . .

    There is just so much crap being served up on free to air TV these days!
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/reality/yummy-mummies-turns-off-viewers-leaving-channel-seven-disappointed-in-ratings-20170712-gx9ol0.html
    Turnbull has coached May and told her to “Be optimistic, be confident”. Google.
    /news/malcolm-turnbull-coaches-theresa-may-be-optimistic-be-confident-20170711-gx9ci9
    When it comes to the demonstrated fire safety risks on high rise buildings the federal government’s approach to dealing with a crisis that imperils lives as well as two cornerstones of our economy – construction and real estate – demonstrates anything but urgency.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fire-risk-and-building-controls-time-for-government-to-act-instead-of-talking-20170711-gx9chn.html
    Steve Bracks has thrown his support ¬behind the Andrews government’s push to legalise doctor-¬assisted suicide. Google.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/steve-bracks-backs-euthanasia-push/news-story/7f4644c16d67e177387dd6b0028282de
    While the Turnbull Government persists in spruiking “clean coal”, renewables continue to be the quiet achievers in energy generation. Jade Manson reports on the South Australian example.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/the-power-of-renewables-and-the-south-australian-example,10495
    Coles and Woolworths are about to duke it out with bread prices.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/coles-deepens-price-war-after-slicing-bread-prices-20170712-gxa33p.html
    An open letter to Putin from an attorney representing victims of the MH17 attack.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/three-years-on–its-time-to-make-amends-for-mh17-mr-putin-20170712-gx9hi5.html
    The Victorian Liberal Party has a lot of squabbling going on. Google.
    /business/margin-call/cormack-foundation-walkouts-hit-victorian-liberals/news-story/cd4e0911a86257bd8d9bc3a12295fee6
    What’s in so-called energy drinks and what they do to your body.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/07/12/heres-what-the-ingredients-in-energy-drinks-actually-do-to-your_a_23026431/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

  7. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1

    Corporate raider Ariadne is still kicking around destroying companies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/ardent-launches-scathing-attack-on-opportunistic-raider-ariadne-20170712-gx9m93.html
    According to Kate Carnell small business operators could face hefty costs from taking the Commonwealth to court if they miss out on government contracts under new proposed legislation that is supposed to help level the playing field.
    http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/finance/wrinkle-in-plan-to-allow-small-business-to-sue-the-commonwealth-20170712-gx9m5r.html

    Cathy Wilcox gives us Forrest Trump Jr.

    What a little cracker from Mark David!

    Broelman celebrates “success” at Mosul.

    Paul Zanetti and Turnbull’s trouble with the “sensible centre”.

  8. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    Mark Knight with Turnbull in Paris recently.
    :large
    Reg Leahy cruels Turnbull.

    Two beauties on Abbott from Alan Moir!


    David Rowe and the smoking son. Again there is just so much to ponder in the detail.

    Mark Knight takes us into Buckingham Palace with Turnbull.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/5f9a5cca67ccbc0103ecaccf4d195183?width=1024
    Pat Clement and the infighting within the Victorian Liberal Party.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1dc811cfff6811e91c069d10e0ff9748?width=650
    This cartoon looks like it could be by Bill Leak’s son.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3e4ea54bf2ba3649289b0d42ce59038b

  9. Thanks BK.
    The HUN article by Campbell is worth a read, nicely he makes the same point I did here yesterday

    “Even so, there is something irrelevant about this debate. The main cleavage in Australian politics is between Labor and non-Labor, as it has been for more than 100 years. Have these clowns forgotten that? A fight over whether the Liberal Party is predominantly progressive, liberal or conservative makes as much sense as Northern Ireland’s Unionists fracturing between their Baptist, Presbyterian, and Episcopalian wings. Just as the main point of the Unionists is that they are not Catholic, the point of the Liberal Party is that it is not Labor. Everything else is secondary, to say the least.”

    And also:
    “But what strikes one looking at the self-proclaimed Liberal conservative wing is its very un-conservative lack of respect for institutions. That was the most interesting and unremarked upon aspect of the recent humiliation meted to ministers Greg Hunt and Alan Tudge and junior parliamentary secretary Michael Sukkar in the Supreme Court of Victoria”

  10. Is YouGov published in the MSM? Assume it is not covered like Newspoll, IPOs and Essential. The SSM poll was interesting. Turnbull should move with a free vote, and get the law done.

  11. This is one big reason why the Liberals are going to have trouble rebuilding:

    ‘At the meeting, held at Melbourne University last Friday, Australia’s peak body for Liberal clubs on university campuses across Australia unanimously elected an all-male executive board for 2017-18. No positions were contested.

    In a speech following the vote, new president Xavier Boffa said attendees should go home with their heads held high after “putting the good of our movement over our individual self-interest” in the election.

    “This is an executive that represents everyone, and there’s been great pains taken to make this happen,” he can be heard saying in a recording provided to BuzzFeed News.

    “It’s also important to point out that it’s fully the intention of this new executive to reach out and include both Tasmania and Queensland [inaudible] and there’ll be more announced in the coming days and weeks about that. This needs to be a truly national federation, and everyone needs to be included.”‘

    ‘…Boffa, who is also the president of the Melbourne University Liberal Club, fell under scrutiny earlier this year when Fairfax Media reported he had sent a message to a female club member saying she would not be invited to an event because “a couple of the guys were a bit uncomfortable about inviting a chick”.’

    ‘…on the ALSF executive, once the person has the numbers to become president, the executive “forms around them”.

    “They handpick the people they want to serve with them. As far as their concerns are, they want to make sure there’s good representation from different states. They have full discretion,” he said.

    “It is unusual [to have no women]… Usually there’s at least two or three women on the executive,” he added.’

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/no-women-elected-at-peak-liberal-students-group-agm?utm_term=.rqXvpBdqn#.btq3NAgoV

    …but it’s not all bad, after all they’re reaching out to Tasmania and Queensland…

  12. I encourage all bludgers who missed Mad as Hell last night to catch it on i-view.
    Not only was it very funny, but virtually the entire show was directing well aimed barbs at Trumble, Trump and believe it or not, crowd favourite Gerard Henderson.

  13. Morning all

    Appreciate Williams analysis of the yougov poll on previous th reread.

    Meanwhile as mentioned yesterday,Louise Mensch the former tory MP was interviewed on MMM Sydney radio yesterday. She has been front and centre on social media from the get go on the Trump imbroglio. She has stood firmly by her reporting of the imbroglio. She has not flinched one iota

  14. Rhys Muldoon @rhysam

    MMM RADIO CHASER – LOUISE MENSCH INTERVIEW
    @louisemensch @charlesfirth and @rhysam on Ivanka Trump and jailtime.

    MMM RADIO CHASER – LOUISE MENSCH INTERVIEW.mp3
    dropbox.com
    8:28 PM · Jul 12, 2017

  15. zoomster:

    Wow, if that group is indicative of future Lib MPs there’s no way the party will join the 21st century any time soon!

  16. …which of course leads to the scenario, in twenty years’ time, when a male and a female of equal ‘merit’ are standing for preselection, but he’s served on the executive of a student group and she hasn’t.

  17. Socrates
    “What is the point of electing a Labor government to the right of the NSW Liberals?”
    1. It’s a lot better than an LNP government to the right of Genghis Khan.
    2. It’s certainly not right wing – many of the policies already enacted are heavily influenced by the powerful left faction.
    3. Don’t get confused by things politicians have to say for electoral reasons which are not a lot to do with what is happening under the hood.
    I do wish non Queenslanders would stop blithely condemning us to be no better than deserving a brainless LNP government.

  18. I was criticising Socrates for being down on Queensland all the time – I know he’s a croweater – you know that lot who keep voting 2PP for the Liberals in state elections but the state electoral system keeps delivering Labor governments (fortunately). Croweaters are in no position to assert moral superiority over Queenslanders.

  19. And while I’m on my high horse – the LNP under Campbell Newman relaxed what were pretty strong land clearing laws from the previous Labor government. The current Labor government has tried to restore them but has been frustrated by the LNP and the Katter Party acting together, although the Katter party supports Labor on confidence and supply. I don’t have time to look more deeply into the article linked by Socrates but it seems land clearing is a significant factor quoted therein

  20. I often wonder whether mental midgets with overweening ambition, like Xavier Boffa, realise what an intellectual and cultural cul de sac they are taking the Liberal Party down?

  21. Speaking of candidate pre-selections, you’ve got to be the reincarnation of Mother Bleedin’ Theresa these days to get through the net of the NSW ALP!

    Anyway, off to Syd-en-ey! now to hand in my Candidate Nomination Form for the Central Coast Local Council. 🙂

  22. C@
    I overheard (I had the TV on but was doing other things) a discussion on TV sometime over the last few days, with (I think) Vanstone talking about the Liberal party’s need to attract and recruit more women.

    She referred to a post election analysis done some years ago. The analysts were stumped: they could not explain why certain seats, which were otherwise identical, had swung so differently. Then someone thought to look at the gender make up of the volunteers campaigning in each seat – and found that the seats where there were women actively involved in the campaign were more likely to show a positive swing than those which were male-dominated.

  23. frednk @ #2 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 6:30 am

    And P1 thinks gas is the future?
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/hugh-saddler-its-gas-not-renewables-that-is-pushing-up-electricity-prices-20170712-gx9vvm.html

    No, P1 thinks that burning gas for the next decade or two will lead to lower GHG emissions than burning coal. Under an EIS it would also be cheaper.

    The continued misrepresentation of my views by a small but vocal clique here, and the continued insistence that saving the planet is just a matter of achieving the correct price point, gives us all an insight into the real motivations of the solar enthusiasts.

  24. adrian @ #22 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 8:24 am

    I encourage all bludgers who missed Mad as Hell last night to catch it on i-view.
    Not only was it very funny, but virtually the entire show was directing well aimed barbs at Trumble, Trump and believe it or not, crowd favourite Gerard Henderson.

    What the hell is going on!
    Yesterday Adrian outed himself as a avid ABC listener and today he is recommending an ABC TV program.

  25. AJM
    I have done a lot of work in Qld, and there are a lot of things about the place I love. But IMO the last truely progressive premier it had was Peter Beatty, and that is a while ago now. Palszczuk’s position is perilous, and she feels constrained in what she can say. But what does she do? She had ample grounds to knock back Adani, but chose not to do so. If she loses the election, she can always get a job as a bank lobbyist.

  26. zoomster @ #28 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 8:40 am

    …which of course leads to the scenario, in twenty years’ time, when a male and a female of equal ‘merit’ are standing for preselection, but he’s served on the executive of a student group and she hasn’t.

    Yes, she has an unfair advantage there with all the bad publicity such organisations regularly receive.

  27. “What the hell is going on!
    Yesterday Adrian outed himself as a avid ABC listener and today he is recommending an ABC TV program”
    Not to worry, Bemused, I’m having Adrian sent to a re-education camp. He will be forced to view Trioli, Sales, Uhlmann and Jones on an endless cycle. That should fix his wayward tendencies.

  28. ‘Yes, she has an unfair advantage there with all the bad publicity such organisations regularly receive.’

    Wow, bemused – you just can’t help yourself, can you?

    Now you’re endorsing misogynistic practices by the Liberal party.

  29. zoomster @ #48 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 9:54 am

    ‘Yes, she has an unfair advantage there with all the bad publicity such organisations regularly receive.’
    Wow, bemused – you just can’t help yourself, can you?
    Now you’re endorsing misogynistic practices by the Liberal party.

    Oh dear… you really are such a humourless person.

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