YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7

The second federal poll from YouGov goes against the grain in recording an uptick in support for the Coalition, while also finding a big majority in favour of legalising same-sex marriage.

The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%. However, what’s very unusual is a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result that gives the Coalition a lead of 52-48, the reverse of what the result would be if 2016 preference flows were used, as per the other pollsters. I don’t quite have the confidence to lead a post with “52-48 to Coalition” based such an unorthodox reading, so I’ll be using primary votes for my YouGov headlines for the time being.

The poll also found 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; health and hospitals were rated the most important election issue by 45%, followed by pensions on 33% and job security and unemployment on 31%; 56% supportive of a tax on companies that used robots to fund support for those who lost jobs as a result; and 54% expressing concern at indigenous languages falling into disuse, but only 33% believing the government should do anything about it. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Tuesday, with a sample of a little over 1000.

UPDATE: The Australia Institute has published results of a poll conducted in South Australia by ReachTEL, which shows (after allocating the forced response question from the 7.1% undecided) federal voting intention in the state at 34.3% for the Liberals (down 0.8% on last year’s election), 32.1% for Labor (up 0.6%), 14.9% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 6.4%), 6.6% for the Greens (up 0.4%), 4.6% for One Nation (didn’t field lower house candidates) and 3.9% for Australian Conservatives (unchanged on the Family First vote). There’s also a separate question on Senate voting intention, and while I have my doubts about such an exercise, it has the Liberals on 30.1% (down 2.5%), Labor on 26.1% (down 1.2%), the Nick Xenophon Team on 21.7% (unchanged), the Greens on 8.2% (up 2.3%), One Nation on 4.8% (up 1.8%) and Australian Conservatives on 5.2% (up 2.3% on the Family First vote, for the most encouraging poll result the party has yet received).

The poll also records strong support for the ABC, with 40.4% wanting its funding increased, 33.4% kept as is and only 17.5% reduced; 64.8% opposed to the government cutting funding to the ABC to get support on relaxed media ownership laws from One Nation, with 16.5% supportive; and 56.3% supportive of a strong online presence for the ABC “even if it effects the commercial viability of commercial media outlets”, with 16.4% opposed (the anti-ABC numbers across the three questions being notably similar). The automated phone poll was conducted from 1589 respondents on June 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7”

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  1. player one @ #39 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 9:31 am

    frednk @ #2 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 6:30 am

    And P1 thinks gas is the future?
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/hugh-saddler-its-gas-not-renewables-that-is-pushing-up-electricity-prices-20170712-gx9vvm.html

    No, P1 thinks that burning gas for the next decade or two will lead to lower GHG emissions than burning coal. Under an EIS it would also be cheaper.
    The continued misrepresentation of my views by a small but vocal clique here, and the continued insistence that saving the planet is just a matter of achieving the correct price point, gives us all an insight into the real motivations of the solar enthusiasts.

    In another Galaxy, far far away, coal power stations can magically, at zero cost and in zero time, start burning Gas. P1 lives there.
    In the real world it takes time and money to build new gas fired plants or convert existing coal fired power stations to burn gas and in a lot of cases it is futile as those coal fired plants are due for retirement.
    That money could be better spent on renewables, storage, and perhaps a small peaking gas fired capacity.

  4. JoshButler: -Daily Tele, being gay is a health issue
    -Prue MacSween “I’d run Yassmin over”
    -Rowan Dean “go back to Laos”

    What a week for Aussie media

  10. …of course, what the Liberal student organisation is also spectacularly missing is any non-Anglo Saxon representation. If Bill Shorten had anything to do with anything that didn’t cover the full gamut of every sex, race, religion and creed available, this’d be front page news, with demands that he get in and reform whatever organisation it was, because (as head of the party) he should take full responsibility.

    Of course, Liberals, crickets.

  14. It’s noticeable that a number of the Lib mouthpersons are running the ‘You’ll end up with Shorten in the Lodge” commentary which sort of shows up that the voters are actually actively and seriously considering that option.

  15. Zoomster:

    C@t is right about the uni club leading the Liberals into a socio-cultural cul-de-sac. If their present is young white males then their future will remain old white males.

  16. GG

    LNP doesn’t get it. They have to recover in the polls before they can use Mr Shorten as the bogeyman. They have been doing same for four years. Especially in the last election campaign.

    Not working. However I have seen no evidence they learn as we have seen on climate change policy

  17. Z,

    Bemused seems to be channelling Prue MacSween!
    Replying to @RabiehGharibeh @2GB873 @chrissmithradio
    It’s sad this nation doesn’t have a sense of humour anymore. For all those who have lost theirs I apologise but can I suggest u lighten up

  19. P1

    Bemused is correct with you about this issue. Here is another source saying basically the same thing.

    ACOSS: ‘It’s not the wind, it’s the gas. Why power prices are going berserk,’ writes @1petermartin smh.com.au/comment/it-not…
    #electricity #energy

  24. guytaur @ #69 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 10:31 am

    P1
    Bemused is correct with you about this issue. Here is another source saying basically the same thing.
    ACOSS: ‘It’s not the wind, it’s the gas. Why power prices are going berserk,’ writes @1petermartin smh.com.au/comment/it-not…
    #electricity #energy

    P1 emits a lot of hot air and gas (flatulence).

  31. **Croweaters are in no position to assert moral superiority over Queenslanders.**
    Absolutely! Assertion not required…. everyone knows.

  36. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/12/eu-warns-brexit-talks-could-fail-after-johnsons-go-whistle-remarks

    The inference is that Tories are not to be trusted….whoever woulda thought-a-that….

    EU officials are adamant that failure to at least acknowledge the principle of ongoing budget obligations would prevent talks from proceeding at all and not allow any discussion of future relationship issues such as a free trade deal.

    “The three priorities for the first phase are indivisible,” said Barnier, referring to the financial settlement, citizens’ rights and other separation issues such as the Northern Irish border. “Progress on one or two would not be sufficient in order for us to move on to the discussion of our future relationship.”

    In some of the most strident exchanges of the Brexit process so far, Barnier said the issue was not simply a technical sequencing matter but went to the heart of whether the two sides could trust each other.

    “How do you build a relationship based on trade, security … which is going to last, with a country with which you don’t have trust?” implored the French diplomat.

  37. Briefly

    Yep. Trust is one thing the conservatives around the world do not have.

    When in Government Labor has to work twice as hard for voters to see they can be trusted on policies. I leave out parties not in government.

  40. Just sayin’ : hopefully a rumour turns to a fact

    Claude Taylor‏ @TrueFactsStated

    If what 2 of my sources are correct-the Don Jr story will turn out be barely worth a footnote. I’m told “they have Trump on tape” We’ll see.

  43. Bingo!

    John Schindler @20committee

    Investigation is giving traitors sufficient rope to hang themselves with. Frustrating for the public, but smart.

    Shelly

  44. There are two alternatives options for Turnbull. First, he could attempt to arrange a truce with Abbott and give him a place in cabinet, as Gillard did with Rudd. If Abbott accepted, as surely he would, this would curtail his open criticism, but would give him a better internal platform to promote his ambitions to halt what he sees as a drift to the left by the Turnbull government. It would also place him in a better position to orchestrate another leadership coup, if not for himself, for another senior party conservative such as Peter Dutton.

    The second option for Turnbull is to convince Abbott to accept the coming vacancy as Australian High Commissioner in London, replacing Alexander Downer. Given Abbott’s demeanour of late, this would be a hard task.

    If this doesn’t happen, the clear winners are Bill Shorten and Labor.

    Ian Tulloch is an Honorary Associate (Politics) at La Trobe University, Bendigo.

    http://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/story/4783296/is-there-any-way-out-of-mess-for-turnbull/

  46. **tim-soutphommasane-responds-go-back-laos**
    The last vestiges of their outdated and failed belief system (that held them as being superior) is stripped away. They stand there, cornered, naked except for the scrawny rags of age old defences. But they are not lashing out like cornered tigers, they are merely urinating in their pants like the pathetic cowards they are.

  47. victoria Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 12:03 pm

    PhoenixRed

    That seems to be the big rumour that has been going around for past few weeks.

    ***********************************
    Day by day, drip by drip …….. the issues that *Team Patriot* have put forward weeks ago are now starting to come to fruition ….. and the MSN are coming to the party and basically confirming what they have been putting out there ….

  49. G,

    The only solution Abbott is interested in is the removal of Turnbull as PM.
    Turnbull is going to have to crush him to survive.

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