YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7

The second federal poll from YouGov goes against the grain in recording an uptick in support for the Coalition, while also finding a big majority in favour of legalising same-sex marriage.

The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%. However, what’s very unusual is a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result that gives the Coalition a lead of 52-48, the reverse of what the result would be if 2016 preference flows were used, as per the other pollsters. I don’t quite have the confidence to lead a post with “52-48 to Coalition” based such an unorthodox reading, so I’ll be using primary votes for my YouGov headlines for the time being.

The poll also found 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; health and hospitals were rated the most important election issue by 45%, followed by pensions on 33% and job security and unemployment on 31%; 56% supportive of a tax on companies that used robots to fund support for those who lost jobs as a result; and 54% expressing concern at indigenous languages falling into disuse, but only 33% believing the government should do anything about it. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Tuesday, with a sample of a little over 1000.

UPDATE: The Australia Institute has published results of a poll conducted in South Australia by ReachTEL, which shows (after allocating the forced response question from the 7.1% undecided) federal voting intention in the state at 34.3% for the Liberals (down 0.8% on last year’s election), 32.1% for Labor (up 0.6%), 14.9% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 6.4%), 6.6% for the Greens (up 0.4%), 4.6% for One Nation (didn’t field lower house candidates) and 3.9% for Australian Conservatives (unchanged on the Family First vote). There’s also a separate question on Senate voting intention, and while I have my doubts about such an exercise, it has the Liberals on 30.1% (down 2.5%), Labor on 26.1% (down 1.2%), the Nick Xenophon Team on 21.7% (unchanged), the Greens on 8.2% (up 2.3%), One Nation on 4.8% (up 1.8%) and Australian Conservatives on 5.2% (up 2.3% on the Family First vote, for the most encouraging poll result the party has yet received).

The poll also records strong support for the ABC, with 40.4% wanting its funding increased, 33.4% kept as is and only 17.5% reduced; 64.8% opposed to the government cutting funding to the ABC to get support on relaxed media ownership laws from One Nation, with 16.5% supportive; and 56.3% supportive of a strong online presence for the ABC “even if it effects the commercial viability of commercial media outlets”, with 16.4% opposed (the anti-ABC numbers across the three questions being notably similar). The automated phone poll was conducted from 1589 respondents on June 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7”

  1. guytaur @ #1153 Sunday, July 16th, 2017 – 10:59 am

    eg A son and father were injured in a car accident. The son is on the operating table. The surgeon says I can’t operate on the son he is my child. Who is the surgeon?

    The answer is obvious but many cannot answer it correctly because they see the surgeon as a man by default.

    When I first heard this one, in 1982 in a TAFE Women’s Studies course, I could not see the answer. That really woke me up.

  2. poroti Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 3:31 pm

    Confessions

    There is the rub,are there any “actualities” behind the rumours ? I’m sceptical because oh so often after the initial “bombshell” later reports walk back or even totally refute the claims. But of course by then attention was on the next “bombshell”.

    ****************************************

    I don’t live in the US ….. I don’t have the connections that ex NSA John Schindler…….ex Tory Louise Mensch may have with her MI 5/6 buddies …. or that Claude Taylor, Andrew Laufer, Rick Wilson etc etc have ….. so I read what they say and take it all with a grain of salt ….but …. a lot of what they have posted has come true as their statements ….. so I am hopeful that their posts are based on some truth from their feeder connections ….. and they are either vindicated or exposed as rumour mongers …. only time will tell…and I am patient that whatever is the TRUTH will prevail and JUSTICE will be given to those who deserve it …

  3. Poroti:

    Of course this could all amount to nothing, we shall see. I just wish we’d get to the end point quicker is all.

  4. Question:

    I didn’t mind today’s Insiders, but as others noted at the time, Murphy can’t quite shake off her ‘Real Malcolm will Emerge Soon’ expectation.

  5. London: US President Donald Trump told embattled British Prime Minister Theresa May he won’t come to Britain for his controversial state visit until he is sure of getting a “better reception”, it has been reported.

    Mr Trump was said to have told Mrs May that he had not had “great coverage” in Britain and had urged her to “fix it for me”, according to The Sun on Sunday.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/donald-trump-tells-theresa-may-he-wants-better-reception-in-britain-20170716-gxc3y3.html

  6. confessions Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 3:48 pm
    Poroti:

    Of course this could all amount to nothing, we shall see. I just wish we’d get to the end point quicker is all.

    ******************************************
    The other point is that NO MATTER whatever crimes Trump MAY have committed there is a certain percentage of the US population wont ever believe /accept it – and IF he removed from office then a Civil War is next on the cards ……

    Some say even thought he wiped his arse on the Confederate Flag, said Elvis was a fag, said WWE wrestling and NASCAR was rigged and had sex with/murdered a 12 year old all on film, then they still would not believe it ……

    That’s the US ……

  7. P and others
    ‘eg A son and father were injured in a car accident. The son is on the operating table. The surgeon says I can’t operate on the son he is my child. Who is the surgeon?’

    I don’t think this is particularly useful. In fact I would say the messes the issues nicely.

    The Intro is clearly designed to lead the answer in order to give the person giving the answer a whack around the ears.

    Had the words been formulated as follows, guess which answer most people would have given?

    ‘A son and his mother were injured in a car accident. The son is on the operating table. The surgeon says I can’t operate on the son, he is my child. Who is the surgeon?’

  8. When author Anthony Summers asked whether the files on the assassination of President Kennedy would be made public – ‘It might not be in your lifetime’, said the Chief Justice of the United States.

    Over 50 years later, we STILL don’t know the TRUTH …..will we find the TRUTH about Trump & Family ??????

  9. Trump & co are a dangerous menace to the entire world. If their antics were only going to affect the US I’d care a lot less.

    I’m deliberately not getting my hopes up because I have no confidence in the political processes which are required to remove him from office.

    My secondary concern is that the next few in the line of succession are even more dangerous than Trump because they are politically competent. At least Trump’s incompetence protects everyone from the worst of his excesses.

  10. Lizzie

    Trump visiting the UK …

    I gather that Prince Chuck has refused even to shake hands with Trump, so the Queen will, if the Govt invites him, put on only so much of a show.

    Some UK PM’s have been good enough to be able to get the Queen to do things she’d rather not – Trezza May ain’t one of them.

  11. Seems Bishop getting hero status against Trump via News Ltd, maybe Murdoch getting ready for change of Leadership in LNP?

  12. grimace Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 4:27 pm

    Trump & co are a dangerous menace to the entire world. If their antics were only going to affect the US I’d care a lot less.

    I’m deliberately not getting my hopes up because I have no confidence in the political processes which are required to remove him from office.

    My secondary concern is that the next few in the line of succession are even more dangerous than Trump because they are politically competent. At least Trump’s incompetence protects everyone from the worst of his excesses.

    ****************************************

    What might happen to the US ……..and its enemies – if Trump and his successors – Pence, Ryan, McConnell ….. are all at once exposed for their part – collusion ??? as they may well be if the Mensch posts are accurate in their respective accusations of being on IC tapes ….. in this Russian imbroglio.

    Putin might just win the lotto main prize all by himself – and the US is plunged into a power vacuum. He will have achieved more in 6 months than all the Russian efforts to destabilize the US have achieved since 1945 …..

  13. Grimace
    It was all over red rover when the Seppos elected ‘Dubya Bush. If there was any doubt that was dispelled when they elected him for a second time.

  14. poroti Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 4:46 pm
    Grimace
    It was all over red rover when the Seppos elected ‘Dubya Bush. If there was any doubt that was dispelled when they elected him for a second time.

    ****************************************
    I hate to say this, Poroti – but GW Bush seems like an affable genius compared to Trump – and his mouth breathing morons of sons, his sleazebag Son In Law and their respective boxtox, plasticated faced store dummy wives …….

  15. So, not long now before Asbestos takes over from Talcum as the new leadership material for the Liberal Party. Katharine Murphy is going to be heart-broken if her man gets knifed.

  16. My secondary concern is that the next few in the line of succession are even more dangerous than Trump because they are politically competent.

    In my view this is a terrible reason for wanting the chaos, dysfunction, potential corruption and incompetence of Team Trump to prevail. And even if Trump was dispatched the Republicans in congress are still making a hash of things legislatively and proving themselves incapable of governing. They can’t even get a replacement Obamacare scheme legislated, even though they control both houses!

  17. PhoenixRED

    GW Bush seems like an affable genius compared to Trump

    He may well be but the fact remains Dubya farked the world. He let the Dr Strangelovian Rumsfelds and Cheneys run riot .

  18. poroti Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 5:05 pm
    PhoenixRED

    “GW Bush seems like an affable genius compared to Trump”

    He may well be but the fact remains Dubya farked the world. He let the Dr Strangelovian Rumsfelds and Cheneys run riot .

    ******************************************

    YOU are correct Poroti … but give Trump the time and office – I am sure he will better it

    The U.S. Invaded Iraq 14 Years Ago. Now, Iran Dominates It.

    The United States spent more than $1 trillion and lost about 4,500 troops in the effort to make Iraq the core of a Western-facing Middle East. But today, Iran’s influence is paramount.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-iraq-iranian-power.html

  19. Very droll ..Lol!!

    Greensborough Growler
    Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 5:10 pm
    “fess,
    Be grateful it does not take you back to bemused’s last comment!”

  20. AUSTRALIA may have just recorded it’s coldest temperature of 2017 as a series of cold fronts barrelled across the country’s south east on Sunday.

    NSW and Victoria both had a freezing start to the day dropping to -12C in the mountains. Qantas has been forced to de-ice planes at Melbourne – a task usually only needed in Canberra and Hobart.

    Sunday will still be chilly for Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart but temperatures will rise further north.

    South of the Murray, the mercury in Ballarat fell to -2.1C, in Bairnsdale to -3.5C and at Mount Hotham to -7.8C.

    But that’s nothing on NSW and the ACT where residents of Orange woke to a low of -6.3C, and Canberra fell to -7C. But the mountain resort of Perisher knocked it out of the winter ballpark slumping to -12.1C at 3.30am.

    https://www.thereporter.com.au/news/coldest-temperature-years-australia-shivers/3200942/

  21. Why would Australia want to contribute further to all the misery in the world by becoming another arms peddler?
    Surely there are enough of them already?

  22. confessions Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 5:22 pm
    PhoenixRed:

    No Bill MAher this month, so here’s a throwback which I’m sure you’ll enjoy:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEsP4_1ImUI

    *******************************
    HA …… Thanks Confessions , If I did not have Bill Maher, Samantha Bee, John Oliver etc ……… and had to rely on Fox Stooges/Trump denialists like Sean Hannity to tell me what was going on in the US, then I would go bonkers …..

  23. I don’t know where people have been but it is currently legal for religious institutions such as schools to sack staff for being gay. They are already exempt from anti discrimination law

  24. lizzie @ #1286 Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 5:28 pm

    AUSTRALIA may have just recorded it’s coldest temperature of 2017 as a series of cold fronts barrelled across the country’s south east on Sunday.

    I don’t know about where you are, but where I am this is also one of the driest winters in living memory. No rain at all.

  25. OL:

    Glad you enjoyed it. If we didn’t have comedians the whole thing would be so much more depressing than it already is.

  26. If you are:
    Thanks for the correction last week re David Irving.

    I was in a bit of an embarrassing situation where a friend of my son’s, insisted a David Irvine was the Holocaust denier, and not David Irving, the historian. I wasn’t sure, and didn’t like to check in front of him; but I told him I’d soon be set straight after I posted

    Unfortunately no-one did, and I didn’t bother to check.

    Then, the following day, I think, you posted the correction.

    So, thanks for that.

    But I might add: it seems to me, so far that I have read, that the Germans and the Allies were only both as good as the intercepted intelligence allowed.

    And, oh dearie me, there are some funny (as in laughingly funny) moments. Like Il Duce, waiting feverishly, with a white horse, to ride victoriously into Egypt. Hang on, let me find the passage.

  27. I find people complaining about the cold funny. I understand its relative but its got nothing on an European or American winter. I remember the winter I spent in Illinois. It was -40c which also happens to be -40f.

  28. Sydney in July has been cool and dry, with cold nights, frosty early mornings away from the coast and inner city heat island, followed by mild to warm and mostly almost cloudless days. Apart from a coastal strip about 15km wide, there’s been almost no rain.

  29. In Brisbane we are having a mild wet winter, which used to be most unusual. It seems pretty obvious that weather patterns everywhere are changing.
    Now who predicted that would happen…………………………..

  30. Question,

    “Did I miss the bit where Insiders took the piss out of the ‘laws of mathematics’?”

    Malcolm has amended his recently announced Mal’s Law by stating that the Null Set does actually apply in Australia. That’s where his credibility and any half-decent policies can be found.

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