YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7

The second federal poll from YouGov goes against the grain in recording an uptick in support for the Coalition, while also finding a big majority in favour of legalising same-sex marriage.

The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%. However, what’s very unusual is a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result that gives the Coalition a lead of 52-48, the reverse of what the result would be if 2016 preference flows were used, as per the other pollsters. I don’t quite have the confidence to lead a post with “52-48 to Coalition” based such an unorthodox reading, so I’ll be using primary votes for my YouGov headlines for the time being.

The poll also found 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; health and hospitals were rated the most important election issue by 45%, followed by pensions on 33% and job security and unemployment on 31%; 56% supportive of a tax on companies that used robots to fund support for those who lost jobs as a result; and 54% expressing concern at indigenous languages falling into disuse, but only 33% believing the government should do anything about it. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Tuesday, with a sample of a little over 1000.

UPDATE: The Australia Institute has published results of a poll conducted in South Australia by ReachTEL, which shows (after allocating the forced response question from the 7.1% undecided) federal voting intention in the state at 34.3% for the Liberals (down 0.8% on last year’s election), 32.1% for Labor (up 0.6%), 14.9% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 6.4%), 6.6% for the Greens (up 0.4%), 4.6% for One Nation (didn’t field lower house candidates) and 3.9% for Australian Conservatives (unchanged on the Family First vote). There’s also a separate question on Senate voting intention, and while I have my doubts about such an exercise, it has the Liberals on 30.1% (down 2.5%), Labor on 26.1% (down 1.2%), the Nick Xenophon Team on 21.7% (unchanged), the Greens on 8.2% (up 2.3%), One Nation on 4.8% (up 1.8%) and Australian Conservatives on 5.2% (up 2.3% on the Family First vote, for the most encouraging poll result the party has yet received).

The poll also records strong support for the ABC, with 40.4% wanting its funding increased, 33.4% kept as is and only 17.5% reduced; 64.8% opposed to the government cutting funding to the ABC to get support on relaxed media ownership laws from One Nation, with 16.5% supportive; and 56.3% supportive of a strong online presence for the ABC “even if it effects the commercial viability of commercial media outlets”, with 16.4% opposed (the anti-ABC numbers across the three questions being notably similar). The automated phone poll was conducted from 1589 respondents on June 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7”

  1. Boerwar, you may be a marvellously modern feminist chap (did I hear a faint “yuk yuk” from somewhere out there in the tubes?) who immediately sees that the answer to the surgeon question is “his mother” but believe me I’ve been in men’s groups where none of the blokes (except me) got it because they were just not used to the fact of wimmin being doctors. It does have a point – quite a pointed point.

  2. Ides Of March

    I find people complaining about the cold funny. I understand its relative

    Indeed it is relative. I remember in Darwin a ‘refugee’ from Sth Australia saying to his wife “Just think dear, we will never be cold again” . Total LOL due to a remembering how when the temp got down to a min of 16 the locals coming in to work moaned sounded like they had come through snow drifts 🙂

  3. Here t’is:

    Mussolini and a collection of Fascist notables had already flown to Libya and were waiting impatiently to stage their grand entry into Cairo. The Duce’s white horse was waiting too. Telegrams were flying back and forth between Rome and Berlin on the appointment of an Italian governor of Egypt and his relation to Rommel and the ‘Army of Occupation.’

    Didn’t happen.

  4. Without necessarily adding gas to the fire, the history of PB bannings is an interesting topic in it’s own right.

    As one of the few originals for this site when WB took over from Brian Palmer way back around 2005. (With apologies to anyone I’ve missed but the only others I can recall that are still posting are Diogenes, Fulvio and I think Outside left).

    Over the journey a few people have felt the wrath of our moderator and been banned.
    The first was a dude named Zoltan who was clearly on drugs.

    There was another dude aggressive and full of himself called Kirribilli Removalist who was particularly up himself but reasonably humouros from time to time. (Very much a Bemused style character).

    There was of course the famous Frank Calabrese a lovely guy with an aggressive tone of commentary that caused WB major conniptions.

    Beyond that there has been Thomas the Paine a never ending anti Gillardist and the Truth Hurts who was a precursor to Colton.

    I’m pretty sure Bemused copped a month’s ban for being Bemused some year’s ago.

    Of course, Kezza2 was banned for a couple of years with the WB comment of” never darkening the door of PB again”. I always had melodramatic visions of WB in a top hat and moustache driving the poor widow from her home after that performance. Glad to see you back and firing Kezza!

    You’ll be shocked to know I’ve been suspended twice. Once was a cock up on my part when I missed a general warning. The other was totally unfair . But I’m over it!

    The most famous banning occurred after WB jobbed out the coverage of the 2008 US election to a claque of idiots and they banned him when he asked them to tone down the abuse.

  5. Jack A Randa
    When the intro specifies a mother and a son…
    When the intro specifies a father and a son…
    And on each occasion the person says, I can’t operate on him, he’s my son…
    The reader is sucked into thinking father or mother… according to the intro.

    My point stands: that the text confuses gender issues rather than clarifying them.

  6. Of course, I forgot Shows On who has this hate hate relationship with WB and the site . You can never know how many times and for how long he’s been banned!

  7. Blaming the simmering tensions for the party’s consistently poor polling, Mr Greiner said he would be meeting with Mr Abbott in coming weeks to encourage him to sit down with Mr Turnbull and settle their differences.

    “They need to resolve it face-to-face and they need to resolve it directly, not through intermediaries,” he told Sky News.

    Mal will have to get the agreement in writing, possibly in triplicate, because Tony has already said he can’t be believed unless it’s in writing.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-16/turnbull-abbott-liberal-infighting-election-loss-nick-greiner/8713240

  8. BW, it’s not supposed to “clarify” gender issues; it’s supposed to make people aware of their inner prejudices and mental blocks. But some on PB are perhaps not strong on self-awareness…

  9. Abbott has gone 100% quiet since Turnbull’s Conservative Speech in the Elizebethan Centre of the Galaxy.

    He’s apparently on leave according to reporting I saw a couple of days ago.

  10. On the Woollies and Coles proposed plastic bag bans, I wonder if this will also extend to replacing the plastic bags in the fruit and veg section with paper bags.

  11. ‘Jack A Randa
    Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 6:37 pm

    BW, it’s not supposed to “clarify” gender issues; it’s supposed to make people aware of their inner prejudices and mental blocks. But some on PB are perhaps not strong on self-awareness…’
    What silly, self-defeating wording if that is the objective!

  12. GG

    William’s a pretty reasonable sort of bloke. And always gives second/third/fourth chances.

    Was I banned for two years. I’ve forgotten now. Too many aliases later. It’s good to be back in my own skin.

  13. GG
    Ah. The LNP have sort of gotten things off to a flier as far as state meetings are concerned.

    Abbott v Turnbull should the Mother of All Love Ins.

  14. ‘Boerwar
    Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 6:46 pm

    ‘Jack A Randa
    Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 6:37 pm

    BW, it’s not supposed to “clarify” gender issues; it’s supposed to make people aware of their inner prejudices and mental blocks. But some on PB are perhaps not strong on self-awareness…’
    What silly, self-defeating wording if that is the objective!’

    Still, if you found it personally helpful, perhaps all is not lost.

  15. This floated past me on Twitter.
    I always take such statements with a pinch of salt, but does anyone know any more?

    He probably didn’t have to resign. Abetz was challenged while sitting I’m pretty sure. The difference is Ludlam is a decent human being

    Le voyageur‏ @LeVoyageurOz · 10h10 hours ago
    Yet @TurnbullMalcolm is quite OK with Abetz being a German citizen for 16 years while an Australian senator.

  16. Boerwar
    Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 6:34 pm
    Abbott has gone 100% quiet since Turnbull’s Conservative Speech in the Elizebethan Centre of the Galaxy.

    Abbott has been told to clam up. He must be well aware the Right Revival has failed to undermine Turnbull. In fact, it has achieved the opposite. Turnbull is stronger now than at any time since the election. Abbott would know that he is the one who is vulnerable. If Turnbull were to decide the situation required it, Abbott would be cast out of Warringah. Abbott very badly over-played a poor hand and has likely fatally ruined any chances he may have had.

  17. Corbyn wants a tariff free access to the EU as long as the EU buckles to Corbyn’s other conditions – which are are unacceptable to the EU.

    Could someone tell Corbyn he’s dreaming?

  18. Mal will have to get the agreement in writing, possibly in triplicate, because Tony has already said he can’t be believed unless it’s in writing.

    Also with some impeccable witnesses to his signature (so has to include witnesses not associated with the L/NP – IPA – Newscrap Coalition), multiple video copies of the signing ceremony to be kept in the deepest vault of the Commonwealth Archives. Also have the agreement carved into a granite obelisk to be erected at the entrance to Parliament House, lest Tony decides that it’s a non-core agreement, or that the promises everyone thought he made were different.

  19. Will Truffles still insist “their are no factions in the Liberal party” when he addresses the NSW Liberal conference next weekend? 😀

  20. Trump is breaking records, his polling showing him as the most unpopular after 6 months ever, beating the hapless unelected Gerald Ford. Worth a look at the article for the wonderful trend apparent in the stacked bar chart.

    “Americans give President Donald Trump the lowest six-month approval rating of any president in polls dating back 70 years, punctuated by questions about his competence on the world stage, his effectiveness, the GOP health care plan and Russia’s role in the 2016 election.

    Just 36 percent of Americans polled in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll approve of Trump’s job performance, down 6 points from his 100-day mark, itself a low. The previous president closest to this level at or near six months was Gerald Ford, at 39 percent, in February 1975.”

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/months-record-low-trump-troubles-russia-health-care/story?id=48639490&cid=social_twitter_abcn

  21. After years of hedging or discounting the malign effects of free trade, it was time to face facts: globalisation caused job losses and depressed wages, and the usual Davos proposals – such as instructing affected populations to accept the new reality – weren’t going to work. Unless something changed, the political consequences were likely to get worse.

    It was only a few decades ago that globalisation was held by many, even by some critics, to be an inevitable, unstoppable force. “Rejecting globalisation,” the American journalist George Packer has written, “was like rejecting the sunrise.” Globalisation could take place in services, capital and ideas, making it a notoriously imprecise term; but what it meant most often was making it cheaper to trade across borders – something that seemed to many at the time to be an unquestionable good. In practice, this often meant that industry would move from rich countries, where labour was expensive, to poor countries, where labour was cheaper. People in the rich countries would either have to accept lower wages to compete, or lose their jobs. But no matter what, the goods they formerly produced would now be imported, and be even cheaper. And the unemployed could get new, higher-skilled jobs (if they got the requisite training). Mainstream economists and politicians upheld the consensus about the merits of globalisation, with little concern that there might be political consequences.

    Back then, economists could calmly chalk up anti-globalisation sentiment to a marginal group of delusional protesters, or disgruntled stragglers still toiling uselessly in “sunset industries”. These days, as sizable constituencies have voted in country after country for anti-free-trade policies, or candidates that promise to limit them, the old self-assurance is gone. Millions have rejected, with uncertain results, the punishing logic that globalisation could not be stopped. The backlash has swelled a wave of soul-searching among economists, one that had already begun to roll ashore with the financial crisis. How did they fail to foresee the repercussions?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/14/globalisation-the-rise-and-fall-of-an-idea-that-swept-the-world?CMP=share_btn_tw

  22. Re Sprocket_ @7:01PM: the most remarkable thing I find about that poll is that 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance.

  23. Will Truffles still insist “their are no factions in the Liberal party” when he addresses the NSW Liberal conference next weekend?

    Turnbull as a moderate should be at home at the Lib conference in NSW. Unlike in Qld where he stuck out like an educated sore thumb.

  24. S777
    They get all their reliable information from their various echo chambers.
    Random encounters with alternative views demonstrate that the alternative views are being pushed by Cult Leader’s enemies.
    So, no change.
    ALL the revelations about Trump’s connections with the Russians have increased Replican supporters who think there was no connection with the Russians.

  25. Boer….MAy is asking for someone to relieve her of the responsibility for Brexit. The question is only whether relief will come from a Tory or from Labour. Since hard Brexit cannot be enacted, the person who can articulate and realise a vision for a soft Brexit will certainly get the job. Who will do this? It might be Corbyn. It might be a Tory. It might be another Labour figure. This is the threshold question now.

  26. Lizzie

    In practice, this often meant that industry would move from rich countries, where labour was expensive, to poor countries, where labour was cheaper. People in the rich countries would either have to accept lower wages to compete, or lose their jobs.

    +1000 on that !!

  27. Globalisation was probably inevitable and may ultimately prove a good, like the Industrial Revolution. The problem with both was that the owners of capital have tried to keep all the benefits for themselves.

  28. @Lizzie

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/14/dual-citizenship-explainer-why-does-scott-ludlam-have-to-resign

    “More recently, the Tasmanian Liberal senator Eric Abetz faced a high court challenge to his eligibility after it emerged he still held German citizenship. Abetz also argued he had renounced his other citizenship through the naturalisation process. The case, launched by the antiques dealer John Hawkins, was withdrawn and never reached a hearing before the high court.”

    It still doesn’t explain the attack by Brandis, or why Ludlum needs to resign.

  29. GG
    You inspired me to look for my earliest posting on PB. I went by a slightly different name then and wasn’t a very prolific poster. Perhaps it’s just as well as the following shows what an incompetent prophet I am!

    Alexm
    Thursday, July 12, 2007 at 8:09 am
    Perhaps I’m just a bit too much of an optimist, but the editorial looks to me like the last hurrah of the Political Climate Change Delusionist Party. They’ve had their dummy spit at the opposition and with the next Newspoll they can settle down to something more like reality – hence the bits about “we don’t know who we will support” and “Kevin Rudd would make a good Prime Minister”. Perhaps they’ve started to get the message that the anger against them they talk about in he editorial is starting to turn to derisive laughter – and derisive laughter is not a good look to a paper that puffs itself up as a journal of record.

  30. With that surgeon riddle, it is more about showing how patriarchy, or racism or any other ‘isim’ is culturally transmitted.
    Take me, for example.
    The inner photofit for a surgeon was a white, male, married with kids, a good car and nice house. The wife might be a nurse or some other lower graded health professional or a stay-at-home wife.
    How did I get this pattern in my subconscious?
    Every medical drama had the surgeon as a white male. Every Medical Romance had the nurse marrying the doctor/surgeon. I had never met, seen or ever heard of a female surgeon of any description, including in the media.
    Medical history was all about Florence Nightingale bandaging woundedsoldiers while medical men discovered stuff or pioneered new surgical procedures.
    Popular culture, invisibility of female medical specialsists in the media, limited contact with female surgeons, no role models and historical erasure, all help form the photofit that blindsided me, a woman halfway through a course specifically dealing with those issues, to the obvious answer to the riddle.
    It works the same for race, disability, gender, lots of stuff.

    I never thought of a nurse as a man until one held my hand throughout a difficult childbirth.

  31. Puffy:

    I have to admit when I first read that comment by Guytaur my first thought was WTF how can the surgeon be the dad injured in the same accident?

    I think it’s a useful eg when demonstrating not only gender bias, but how about same sex couples – it also works if there are two fathers or mothers of the injured son.

  32. Ajm – your prophecy would have looked very reasonable at the time. It had logic on its side. Unfortunately that’s no match for the power of vested interests through lots of many, alliances of convenience, disinformation and the spread of FUD to get what they want.

    P.S. I’ve been posting here for 5.5 years – doesn’t seem that long. I started here in January 2012.

  33. Boerwar

    Also slipping under the radar is Macron extending the state of emergency and wanting to make police powers given under a state of emergency the norm.

  34. GG:

    I started commenting in 2009 I think. I don’t remember the Obama-Clinton wars, but have certainly heard loads about them over the years.

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