YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7

The second federal poll from YouGov goes against the grain in recording an uptick in support for the Coalition, while also finding a big majority in favour of legalising same-sex marriage.

The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%. However, what’s very unusual is a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result that gives the Coalition a lead of 52-48, the reverse of what the result would be if 2016 preference flows were used, as per the other pollsters. I don’t quite have the confidence to lead a post with “52-48 to Coalition” based such an unorthodox reading, so I’ll be using primary votes for my YouGov headlines for the time being.

The poll also found 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; health and hospitals were rated the most important election issue by 45%, followed by pensions on 33% and job security and unemployment on 31%; 56% supportive of a tax on companies that used robots to fund support for those who lost jobs as a result; and 54% expressing concern at indigenous languages falling into disuse, but only 33% believing the government should do anything about it. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Tuesday, with a sample of a little over 1000.

UPDATE: The Australia Institute has published results of a poll conducted in South Australia by ReachTEL, which shows (after allocating the forced response question from the 7.1% undecided) federal voting intention in the state at 34.3% for the Liberals (down 0.8% on last year’s election), 32.1% for Labor (up 0.6%), 14.9% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 6.4%), 6.6% for the Greens (up 0.4%), 4.6% for One Nation (didn’t field lower house candidates) and 3.9% for Australian Conservatives (unchanged on the Family First vote). There’s also a separate question on Senate voting intention, and while I have my doubts about such an exercise, it has the Liberals on 30.1% (down 2.5%), Labor on 26.1% (down 1.2%), the Nick Xenophon Team on 21.7% (unchanged), the Greens on 8.2% (up 2.3%), One Nation on 4.8% (up 1.8%) and Australian Conservatives on 5.2% (up 2.3% on the Family First vote, for the most encouraging poll result the party has yet received).

The poll also records strong support for the ABC, with 40.4% wanting its funding increased, 33.4% kept as is and only 17.5% reduced; 64.8% opposed to the government cutting funding to the ABC to get support on relaxed media ownership laws from One Nation, with 16.5% supportive; and 56.3% supportive of a strong online presence for the ABC “even if it effects the commercial viability of commercial media outlets”, with 16.4% opposed (the anti-ABC numbers across the three questions being notably similar). The automated phone poll was conducted from 1589 respondents on June 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7”

  1. Poroti
    I noticed that Macron seemed, ever so slightly, to have the view that in the end Napoleon was a good chap who failed…
    …I suspect that Macron is going to try to go one better.
    It looks very much as if he is 100% ready to shed baggage at the drop of a hat.
    Of course, some baggage is good baggage and some baggage is just baggage.

  2. Late contribution to the female surgeon parable: when I first put that one to my (then about 8 yo) son, whose mother IS a surgeon, he was mortified that he didn’t get it until after it was explained.

  3. Puffy
    The wording of the puzzle could have been improved considerably, IMO.
    In fact the puzzle only needed one word: ‘surgeon’
    If you wanted a bit more fun you could have added terms such ‘CEO’ ‘nurse’ ‘midwife’ ‘gynecologist’ ‘grave digger’ and so on and so forth.

  4. Confessions

    I also started just after the Clinton/Obama wars and as with you only heard whispers of it’s legendary trench warfare. Got here though a link given by someone at Jack the Insiders site . A site I was back then a habitué of.

  5. S777
    ‘ The problem with both was that the owners of capital have tried to keep all the benefits for themselves.’
    Australian wages as a proportion of GDP is the lowest it has been for 50 years.
    Kohler the other day was saying that falling or stagnating wages was a global phenomenum.

  6. Things have changed!

    I can well imagine. So many years now, and it’s still like a family, a community. Over the years we’ve lost parents, grandparents, partners, pets, kids, had trials and tribulations with employment, bureaucracy, housing, education. So many memories and all of them shared here with like-minded folk.

    The first PBer I found camaraderie with was Vera. Sadly she’s gone now but I always remember her plucky anti-Abbott humour and we shared a love of cows and dogs. I also connected with Gweneth who was a local WA based union advocate who also died around 4 years ago. Nobody has thought to turn off her twitter account:

  7. I was here well before Obama-Clinton, ran away for a while whilst it was raging, came back to be mystified by references to Gilligan’s Island. Before I came here I was one of Palmer’s mob.

  8. Boerwar

    Macron,like Truffles, is a bankster. Such people of course always put the peasantry first. So I have doubts about Macron, the proof will be in the pudding.

  9. Not a riddle of gender, but; of three mothers and three fathers I have five brothers and four sisters yet am an only child…

  10. Most doctors wouldn’t get that parable. More recent medical graduates are female than male. About 20% of surgeons are female; the horrible specialties like cardiothoracic, orthopaedics and vascular are more skewed to male than that.

  11. If you wanted a bit more fun you could have added terms such ‘CEO’ ‘nurse’ ‘midwife’ ‘gynecologist’ ‘grave digger’ and so on and so forth.

    The nurse and midwife scenarios however work in a reverse way that doesn’t test the gender bias in the same way the CEO eg does because culturally we don’t assume men can’t be teachers or nurses. Men do and always have become teachers and nurses, and in the case of teachers in any case, go on to become principals.

    But there are very real cultural and institutional barriers placed in the way of women becoming CEOs or even board members.

  12. GG
    I have only been here since 2007. I’ve had three warnings, two of them for posting facts which although true were perhaps liable to cause offense.

  13. Poroti:

    I’m inclined to think that the brouhaha that surrounds the now infamous Obama-Clinton wars has taken on an elevated scandal-like life of its own over the years that escalates with passing time *grins*

  14. Diogs,

    You get less for malpractice these days!
    Wasn’t one of those warnings to do with the abuse of that kangaroo that challenged your Toyota Corona?

  15. More recent medical graduates are female than male. About 20% of surgeons are female

    And I recall reading about the increasing feminisation of general practice many years ago.

  16. GG
    The kangaroo didn’t get me in trouble.
    I think there are four people I’ve had a bet with which has left to all off them leaving.

  17. lizzie @ #1304 Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 6:26 pm

    Player One
    I’m in the outer Yarra Valley of Vic. Gardeners here are complaining about how dry the soil is.

    Perth has had very little rainfall this year, and only a relatively exceptionally wet February has the year to date total looking halfway decent. Winter so far has been unseasonably warm.

  18. Poroti:

    LOL totally something Vera would’ve approved of.

    Btw, whatever happened to BH? She was another whom I enjoyed reading her comments.

  19. Poroti

    Frank often messages me with suggestions for posts on PB. Fortunately he keeps them G-rated, something his own posts often weren’t!

  20. GG
    I also got one person sacked for some comments I made. Fortunately he thinks it was the best thing that ever happened to him.

  21. My most recent sacking was by the gerbils. It lasted quite a while and changed my life quite a bit.
    Mostly, alas, for the better.
    Hooked, I believe.

  22. I remember being here before Kevin 07 but perhaps only some months before the election. A few of the old names are ringing bells but I could be wRONg.

  23. I had a look at some of the early PB threads. The first was in January 2004. The first few had no comments, then it seemed to go into a handful, then a few dozen, then hundreds. I did not recognise most of the commenters from back then.

    2007 was an optimistic time. Howard and Bush seemingly on the way out, Labor with a new leader who looked like he could get things done, stick around for a while, long enough to purge Howardism. Things have gone very pear-shaped since then.

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