YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7

The second federal poll from YouGov goes against the grain in recording an uptick in support for the Coalition, while also finding a big majority in favour of legalising same-sex marriage.

The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%. However, what’s very unusual is a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result that gives the Coalition a lead of 52-48, the reverse of what the result would be if 2016 preference flows were used, as per the other pollsters. I don’t quite have the confidence to lead a post with “52-48 to Coalition” based such an unorthodox reading, so I’ll be using primary votes for my YouGov headlines for the time being.

The poll also found 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; health and hospitals were rated the most important election issue by 45%, followed by pensions on 33% and job security and unemployment on 31%; 56% supportive of a tax on companies that used robots to fund support for those who lost jobs as a result; and 54% expressing concern at indigenous languages falling into disuse, but only 33% believing the government should do anything about it. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Tuesday, with a sample of a little over 1000.

UPDATE: The Australia Institute has published results of a poll conducted in South Australia by ReachTEL, which shows (after allocating the forced response question from the 7.1% undecided) federal voting intention in the state at 34.3% for the Liberals (down 0.8% on last year’s election), 32.1% for Labor (up 0.6%), 14.9% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 6.4%), 6.6% for the Greens (up 0.4%), 4.6% for One Nation (didn’t field lower house candidates) and 3.9% for Australian Conservatives (unchanged on the Family First vote). There’s also a separate question on Senate voting intention, and while I have my doubts about such an exercise, it has the Liberals on 30.1% (down 2.5%), Labor on 26.1% (down 1.2%), the Nick Xenophon Team on 21.7% (unchanged), the Greens on 8.2% (up 2.3%), One Nation on 4.8% (up 1.8%) and Australian Conservatives on 5.2% (up 2.3% on the Family First vote, for the most encouraging poll result the party has yet received).

The poll also records strong support for the ABC, with 40.4% wanting its funding increased, 33.4% kept as is and only 17.5% reduced; 64.8% opposed to the government cutting funding to the ABC to get support on relaxed media ownership laws from One Nation, with 16.5% supportive; and 56.3% supportive of a strong online presence for the ABC “even if it effects the commercial viability of commercial media outlets”, with 16.4% opposed (the anti-ABC numbers across the three questions being notably similar). The automated phone poll was conducted from 1589 respondents on June 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7”

  1. It’s Time @ #1394 Sunday, July 16th, 2017 – 8:36 pm

    I remember being here before Kevin 07 but perhaps only some months before the election. A few of the old names are ringing bells but I could be wRONg.

    I do remember your contributions back then. Ron is my all time favourite conrtibutor to PB.
    Sadly, he was bullied off the blog.

  2. The International Bark Beetle Collective has gone off the boil. (So have the bark beetles. They are running out of trees.)

    I think I ran some outrageously vindictive and greedy enterprises with a chap who followed Frank to the Dark Side following several altercations with William.

    Bluey is back in his tide pool waiting, waiting, waiting…

  3. Who was that supremely optimistic poster who during 2012 and 2013 when the polls were heavily against Labor was convinced the polls were wrong? He said so many times that only one poll counted. He left just before the 2013 election.
    He copped a lot of flack from ML.

  4. My first post on poll bludger was at a time when I was regularly on Palmer’s site and didn’t know of many others.

    I came across PB accidently. PB was a much more decorous institution than Palmer’s blog back then, and I much preferred the stimulating exchanges on Palmer, which were less erudite but more opinionated, just as PB is now.

    Anyway, one day on PB there was a one sided argument going on between Adam and Glen. Adam lost patience with Glen, and went for the jugular in a vitriolic and very personal attack.

    Now Adam had been sparring with Glen and his nonsense for some time, but I wasn’t to know that. I was outraged at Adam’s lack of sensitivity and respect, and flew back at him with some equally offensive response.

    If only I had known….

    I wasn’t game to revisit PB until the Palmer blog died.

  5. Love this from an assoc prof at Macquarie uni after a frigging 2.5m Mako shark was caught in Sydney’s inner west (exactly where my dogs swim, oops), “But often you don’t really know until you’ve got it on board โ€“ by that time it’s half cactus. I’m not sure letting it go back into the harbour would be a wise thing anyway.”
    This is reassuring.

  6. “Who was that supremely optimistic poster who during 2012 and 2013 when the polls were heavily against Labor was convinced the polls were wrong? He said so many times that only one poll counted. He left just before the 2013 election.
    He copped a lot of flack from ML.”
    Bob something or something Bob. Had the optimism of Bob Ellis and that may not have been a coincidence.

  7. I arrived as a Crikey subscriber in 2010 and had an interest in Pure Poison and Poll Bludger and have mostly been a lurker. I had a period from 2012 – 2014 which due to a highly stressful and well-paid job I didn’t do much but work, eat and sleep.

    To the best of my recollection, I’ve never been warned or banned.

  8. “ron was like reading Finnegans Wake crossed with the Tractatus Theologico-Politicus:
    I don’t understand that, so it’s a fitting tribute to ron.

  9. Glen! Whatever happened to Glen? And that juvenile Lib supporter whose family had an Italian restaurant in Sydney which was always sponsoring 2GB type functions and had advertising where you never knew whether the food was going into the pretty woman’s mouth or coming out? Who was that?

  10. Davidwh – The poster you’re think of, I think, was “center”. ML used to spend a lot of time just picking at him until he lost it and said something very silly.

  11. William rebuked me once for being naive and he was right. I’m sure it was something to do with Campbell Newman. I backed a loser there.

  12. Candeloris Italian Restaurant at Smithfield.
    The 2gb add sounds like it was recorded on a dictaphone stuck in someone’s pocket

  13. Davidwh

    Poroti I donโ€™t own a bridge.
    This is your lucky day. I just happen to have a bridge I can sell you ๐Ÿ™‚

  14. Boerwar:

    Ah yes, GP. What a character he was.

    I do miss Glen however. I never encountered anyone who thought Bruce Bilson would amount to much, but Glen stuck to his guns on that front, even to the bitter end.

  15. Oh, we’re in reminiscing mode are we?

    I found my way over from Possum’s some time in 2007.

    Was warned by our Lord once, but I’m smarter than a Liberal Cabinet Minister, so I grovelled.

    Seem to be currently banned if I use my PC, but can get around it via the phone. The Lord does move in mysterious ways.

  16. confessions @ #1423 Sunday, July 16th, 2017 – 8:51 pm

    Glen! Whatever happened to Glen? And that juvenile Lib supporter whose family had an Italian restaurant in Sydney which was always sponsoring 2GB type functions and had advertising where you never knew whether the food was going into the pretty woman’s mouth or coming out? Who was that?

    Glem morphed in to Jack Sparrow and took a job as a teacher in Canberra. He sounded like he was a Labor convert at the end!

  17. “Robert Candelori, who is active on Twitter.”

    Has he done anything in the Liberal Party? He certainly sounded like he wanted to be an up and coming pollie or power broker.

  18. GG:

    Wow, how comedownment for Glen having been such a strident and forceful advocate for the Libs. I’m shocked to hear that.

  19. Glen had a year or so teaching English to boat people in a detention centre, and in many ways it served as a damascene transformation of his previously belligerent tory view of the world.

  20. “Glem morphed in to Jack Sparrow and took a job as a teacher in Canberra. He sounded like he was a Labor convert at the end!”

    I think Glen was horrified by Abbott. I think he would be one of those with hopes for Turnbull to come out as the real Malcolm.

  21. I always liked Meguire Bob’s at times unfathomable enthusiasm for the labor cause.
    Labor could have been, (and often were around the time of his posts) down 10% on the 2PP and he would always dismiss it as a Newscorpse conspiracy and that a triumphant labor victory was just around the corner.

  22. I liked the poster who did the cameo for the 2011 NSW Election and seemed to know the ins and outs (mainly outs) of all ALP candidates.

  23. Candalori was as alright for a deluded rusted on Lib kitchen hand. Could at least put the self absorbed and victim blaming attitudes of the privileged Liberal voter into complete sentences which has been a rarity around here.

  24. I think I started posting here in 2010. I’d subscribed to Crikey for a bit longer, then one day realised the huge number of comments under William’s posts & that they formed a running conversation. Eventually it led me to twitter, which eventually took over the majority of my online time wasting. I still keep an eye on PB though.

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