YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7

The second federal poll from YouGov goes against the grain in recording an uptick in support for the Coalition, while also finding a big majority in favour of legalising same-sex marriage.

The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%. However, what’s very unusual is a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result that gives the Coalition a lead of 52-48, the reverse of what the result would be if 2016 preference flows were used, as per the other pollsters. I don’t quite have the confidence to lead a post with “52-48 to Coalition” based such an unorthodox reading, so I’ll be using primary votes for my YouGov headlines for the time being.

The poll also found 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; health and hospitals were rated the most important election issue by 45%, followed by pensions on 33% and job security and unemployment on 31%; 56% supportive of a tax on companies that used robots to fund support for those who lost jobs as a result; and 54% expressing concern at indigenous languages falling into disuse, but only 33% believing the government should do anything about it. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Tuesday, with a sample of a little over 1000.

UPDATE: The Australia Institute has published results of a poll conducted in South Australia by ReachTEL, which shows (after allocating the forced response question from the 7.1% undecided) federal voting intention in the state at 34.3% for the Liberals (down 0.8% on last year’s election), 32.1% for Labor (up 0.6%), 14.9% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 6.4%), 6.6% for the Greens (up 0.4%), 4.6% for One Nation (didn’t field lower house candidates) and 3.9% for Australian Conservatives (unchanged on the Family First vote). There’s also a separate question on Senate voting intention, and while I have my doubts about such an exercise, it has the Liberals on 30.1% (down 2.5%), Labor on 26.1% (down 1.2%), the Nick Xenophon Team on 21.7% (unchanged), the Greens on 8.2% (up 2.3%), One Nation on 4.8% (up 1.8%) and Australian Conservatives on 5.2% (up 2.3% on the Family First vote, for the most encouraging poll result the party has yet received).

The poll also records strong support for the ABC, with 40.4% wanting its funding increased, 33.4% kept as is and only 17.5% reduced; 64.8% opposed to the government cutting funding to the ABC to get support on relaxed media ownership laws from One Nation, with 16.5% supportive; and 56.3% supportive of a strong online presence for the ABC “even if it effects the commercial viability of commercial media outlets”, with 16.4% opposed (the anti-ABC numbers across the three questions being notably similar). The automated phone poll was conducted from 1589 respondents on June 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7”

  1. In other news I have my (diamond no less, $400 each, thank your mother for the rabbits) tickets for Paul McCartney’s Oz tour in December.
    Yes i would pay that price to hear “Can’t buy me love” and “Love me Do”.
    If he could sneak in “Mull of Kintyre” I might like that too.

  2. One day ABC might discover that Abbott vs Turnbull isn’t the main reason why Labor is likely to win the next election. Bad policies and poor performance in government still seem to escape media scrutiny.

    Liberal Party faces election loss unless Turnbull and Abbott resolve issues, new president says

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-16/turnbull-abbott-liberal-infighting-election-loss-nick-greiner/8713240

    (Apologies if this article was discussed earlier)

  3. Henry
    You won’t regret it. I went to a Barcelona match at the Camp Nou in great seats and ate at a three star restaurant in San Sebastian for a similar amount. Those are money can’t buy experiences you never forget. On your death bed, no-one ever says, Gee I wish I had saved that $400.

  4. I wonder if Mod Lib can still defend the indefensible: pisssing tens of billions up against the wall on a temporary network.

    That one thing alone spoke volumes about how ML (and others like him) were/are trapped in the Turnbull cult.

  5. cud chewer @ #1457 Sunday, July 16th, 2017 – 9:23 pm

    I wonder if Mod Lib can still defend the indefensible: pisssing tens of billions up against the wall on a temporary network.

    That one thing alone spoke volumes about how ML (and others like him) were/are trapped in the Turnbull cult.

    ML was of the female persuasion. You never seem to get these things right, do you!

  6. Another inveterate ALP optimist poster was Gusface, and also Space Kiddette. Most of these congregate on twitter, along with the green tinged Jaundiced View and the green pedant Fran_b

  7. Totally agree Dio, I’m all about the experience these days,
    As i sail through the 40’s, having bested cancer, watched loved ones die I have realised, dimly and hopefully not too late, that it really is about experiencing stuff and enjoying the good times, however you define them. I get such incredible joy from the simplest things these days such as a 6am walk with my animals. I even have a morning mantra, whatever that means.

  8. Good Evening Bludgers 🙂
    One thing I noted about this weekend’s Queensland LNP Conference was that State Opposition Leader, Tim Nicholls, has vowed to play the only hand that any Coalition political grouping has these days. Apparently he’s going to ‘hound Premier Palaczscuk every day from now to the election about the high Power prices Queenslanders have to pay!

    Is that all there is from the LNP!?! A scare campaign about Energy prices!?! Though it’s a bit hard to portray yer old grannie freezing her tits off in a Queensland winter. Nevertheless, since Toned Abs massive success at taking down the federal Labor government with his Electricity Scare Campaign (remember how successful the Coalition were at roping in old grannies to write letters of complaint which they then read out in parliament?…Until such time as the ALP researched the background of one from WA who was found out to be a rather wealthy Liberal Party member from Nedlands!)

    However, it just shows the paucity of real ideas from the Coalition, that they are singularly unable to prosecute a positive case for their election any more. So they are resorting to the same old, same old. Why, I wouldn’t be surprised if they do resort to the same old Tony Abbott down the track either, so as to save the furniture before the next election. As it’s looking like the Hollow Man of politics, Malcolm Turnbull, just isn’t cutting it. Desperate men do desperate things, after all.

  9. The PMO and Murdoch tabloids are back coordinating the beat up for the week, and guess what ‘rinse and repeat’ theme we will be subjected to?

    :large

  10. c@tmomma @ #1463 Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 9:34 pm

    Good Evening Bludgers
    One thing I noted about this weekend’s Queensland LNP Conference was that State Opposition Leader, Tim Nicholls, has vowed to play the only hand that any Coalition political grouping has these days. Apparently he’s going to ‘hound Premier Palaczscuk every day from now to the election about the high Power prices Queenslanders have to pay!
    Is that all there is from the LNP!?! A scare campaign about Energy prices!?! Though it’s a bit hard to portray yer old grannie freezing her tits off in a Queensland winter. Nevertheless, since Toned Abs massive success at taking down the federal Labor government with his Electricity Scare Campaign (remember how successful the Coalition were at roping in old grannies to write letters of complaint which they then read out in parliament?…Until such time as the ALP researched the background of one from WA who was found out to be a rather wealthy Liberal Party member from Nedlands!)
    However, it just shows the paucity of real ideas from the Coalition, that they are singularly unable to prosecute a positive case for their election any more. So they are resorting to the same old, same old. Why, I wouldn’t be surprised if they do resort to the same old Tony Abbott down the track either, so as to save the furniture before the next election. As it’s looking like the Hollow Man of politics, Malcolm Turnbull, just isn’t cutting it. Desperate men do desperate things, after all.

    Now hold on C@t. Queensland have the highest penetration of coal of any state , so the L/NP’s usual campaign of coal = cheap prices and renewables – high prices won’t work for them.

  11. Thank you fess, yes at the ripe old age of 41 i was diagnosed with prostate cancer.
    My PSA (prostate Specific Antigen) was off the charts. I got lucky though and after a prostatectomy received a clean bill of health. I dodged a bullet, big time. My PSA was so high it should have spread to my bones etc. It didn’t and for thank I am thankful.
    Any blokes reading this blog, in their 40’s, pls, get a PSA check done.

  12. I don’t the hell know when I came over to PB, because I’ve been every bloggy where, man! And back again!
    😀

    Nevertheless, I really miss Vera. She had such a whimsical sense of the politically absurd.

    I think I’ve been here or hereabouts since ~2006.

  13. So they are resorting to the same old, same old.

    Because hardly anyone outside the nation’s boardrooms would vote for their real program.

  14. Grimace,
    Now hold on C@t. Queensland have the highest penetration of coal of any state , so the L/NP’s usual campaign of coal = cheap prices and renewables – high prices won’t work for them.

    You know they’ll just ignore that obvious fact! If it’s a Labor government, of any persuasion, they = high power prices and grannies freezing their tits off in winter! 😀

  15. So are we going to be treated to the Liberal Party equivalent of the Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd ‘congenial get-together for the cameras’ over a map, spectacle when a Turnbull/Abbott friendly is engineered by Nick Greiner? 😀

  16. Fairfax has a more sober story – obviously dropped – on the militarisation of our streets

    “Under the current system, the ADF can only be deployed if state or territory police believe their capability or capacity to respond has been exceeded. That provision will be abolished under the Turnbull government’s changes, meaning states could request federal help even if they retained control of the situation.

    Under extraordinary circumstances, the Commonwealth would not need to wait for an invitation and could make the decision to deploy the ADF.

    The system also only allows the ADF to be deployed if the governor-general signs off on a request from the prime minister, attorney-general and defence minister, who all have to agree state forces are incapable of properly responding.

    Mr Turnbull said state and territory police remain the best first responders “immediately after an attack starts”.

    “But Defence can offer more support … to enhance their capabilities and increase their understanding of Defence’s unique capabilities to ensure a comprehensive response to potential terrorist attacks,” he said.

    The changes, which need to pass Parliament, will be discussed at the next Council of Australian Governments meeting.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-army-to-be-deployed-on-domestic-soil-during-future-terrorist-attacks-20170716-gxc7gu.html

  17. Henry:

    Wow I had no clue you were going through all that. Glad you dodged a bullet and all and lived to be here getting up in our faces about cancer screening.

  18. C@tmomma @ #1474 Sunday, July 16th, 2017 – 9:55 pm

    So are we going to be treated to the Liberal Party equivalent of the Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd ‘congenial get-together for the cameras’ over a map, spectacle when a Turnbull/Abbott friendly is engineered by Nick Greiner? 😀

    There won’t be any public reconciliation. If it happens it will happen in private.

  19. There won’t be any public reconciliation. If it happens it will happen in private.
    And I, for one, won’t believe it has occurred until I can see evidence of it being a real thing!

  20. Jeez, those Tweets of Trump’s just keep ignoring the elephant in the room, who looks suspiciously like a Russian dancing bear!

  21. Who was that bludger with the little green crocodile gravatar, he was on Twitter and then it all went silent so he probably went into a nursing home or passed away? He was ex-army and the gravatar was a song he sang to his grandkids. I missed him when he left. No one could ever locate him in the real world to see if he was ok. I know a couple of bludgers tried.

  22. Scorpio is still about on Twitter now, I think. His little grandson must be near at school now.
    Then there was the Late Shift. We did have a lot of fun.
    There is a pod over at The Pub, having left the mothership.

  23. That Rudd/Gillard map reading exercise was one of the most painfully embarrassing political stunts I have ever seen the ALP do. I thought there was going to be a brawl break out any minute. Whoever thought of that should have been sacked.

  24. zoidy
    Abbott a few times looked as if he wanted to jump over the table and throttle someone. Now he has not got to cross the room to reach his enemy.

  25. Have just finished writing a grant due midnight, WA time. As usual, I check Poll Bludger before going to sleep. I do not comment a lot, mostly lurk, but this place is my virtual common room.

    I drifted here a few years ago, from the Dogonauts (First Dog on the Moon) Lounge. My standard lunch until then was to get out my sandwich, close the office door, look at the FDOTM cartoon of the day, and read the comments. I was too busy to comment myself, but was waiting for the Christmas break, when I could indulge myself by making comments on FDOTMs latest cartoon,

    Alas, when I got the chance, FDOTM was on holidays, and then it turned out he was headed for the Grauniad.

    However, I then looked at the other Crikey offerings (I had also followed Possum Comitatus, but by then he had found a real job). I lighted on Poll Bludger, and have been hooked ever since.

    I cannot remember when I first came here (It was the year FDOTM went to the Grauniad), but I think I have been here for quite a few years.

    I remember having a particular affinity for the posters Jules (are you still lurking) and TPOF, who still posts. Diogenes, Shellbell, Lizzie, Victoria, BK, Simon Katich (who really knows an awful lot about cricket), CatMomma, DavidWH, and a whole lot of others, who I realise are too numerous to name make this site the wonderful viewing.

    I also remember losing Crikey Whitey and Geez Louise in the first year I was here.

    And of course, my most profound thanks to our overarching deity, William, without whom this blog would not exist, and our virtual community would just disappear into the aether.

  26. Puffy

    I am so happy to hear that. The Poll Bludger online community mirrors my inner city Redfern / Waterloo community.

  27. Hmmm – my bastardised html is not working, but the above post at least makes sense.
    Back to blockquotes I guess.

  28. Puff, yes just saw this.
    Good stuff.
    The grant app I just submitted was for funding for an old boiler like me (er maybe senior woman?) to go and work with young’uns in STEM, to give them suggestions on how to survive.

    Time for sleep for me now.

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